Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Well...it's really seeming to find support here... but, it's friday. i don't like friday. we're not low enough for me to be really interested... think i'll be happier starting my weekend now.

 

GOod luck all... if u all know what it's gonna do, that's better than I can today.

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well...we just hit 1436.75, and we're probably near the low of the day. i'd be surprised if we touched below 1434. tick seems to have bottomed out with a pretty extreme reading. I'm not gonna say we will move up a whole lot...but 1436.75-1434ish is probably a short term low, or possibly low for the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This GOOGLE earnings miss points to a MUCH lower NQ down to 2664. Not necessarily today. I don't mean its going straight there ... but there NQ is showing signs of needing to go lower to find more buying interest.

 

Looks like the 2664 target might be hit faster than expected. Just 20 pts away and down 70 pts from when I projected it. Maybe staying in overnight might have made sense after being up so much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well so far, it's certainly has been a one-move day! :rofl:

 

Ya know... when the first support level started to look like it would fail, I took a look at other correlated markets, NQ, YM, and currencies as well... as well as the TICK and TRIN...and it seemed weakness was in the cards...

 

however... I think we'ev seen the low TICK for the day. And that generally means we've seen the bottom. The market is oversold in the short term, and just touched off of some significant support around 1434ish...

 

I think this is probably the bottom for today. I think we'll see more upward action in the coming days... however, we could bounce around a bit, but for today...i think we're good actually.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well...that's what I get for coming back to the office instead of staying in the TV room!

 

i'm gonna give this about 4ish points total for a stop... but then, i'm just gonna have to take it. down about 3 points now... probably gonna lose. Always sucks to end with a loser for the week... at least I did well in other areas.

 

Anyway... here's to hoping, lol

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I can get a pip or 2 here... say, 1435.50-1436ish.. I'll take it. For now, stop is 2 pips elow the low of the day. May bring that up more if the market moves more my way...but probably will just leave it unless it or target is hit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You see this happening when a day like this occurs. People want to fade it. But the very best way to prevent getting stuffed in an ES trend day is by evidence based analysis. I'm not trying to make out that I never get it wrong or anything like that. Just that it's important to monitor certain things because fading a market like this before it's put in an extreme is gonna wipe out a good few days and just occasionally, it could wipe out much much more.

 

So what's the evidence?

 

1 - The Open

 

An Open-Drive or Open-Test-Drive can really give you an early hint as to what might be on the cards. I did point this out earlier. Given the location and the macro context, this open was a big hint.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32194&stc=1&d=1350664663

 

2 - The Cumulative Delta

 

When OTF aka "the big boys" take the market in one direction, the delta (at bid - at ask volume per bar) has to move too. Today it did and even after the initial move it didn't really recover.

 

3 - IB Extension

 

If OTF are there and haven't done 30 points pre-IB close, the likelihood is that you'll see a substantial IB extension of more than at least 38.2%. This is representing the fact that these guys come into the market early and there is a persistence of activity.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32195&stc=1&d=1350664964

 

4 - One-Timeframing

 

An MP term. Means simply on a 30-min chart the high in a downtrend or the low in an uptrend is no more than 1 tick beyond the last 30-min bar. Simple but works. Sometimes the easiest and clearest technicals work when markets are really moving.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32196&stc=1&d=1350665328

 

5 - Shallow Counter Rotations

 

If the market is potentially going to turn, there are a few things I don't want to see. One is shallow counter-rotations. Today the largest has so far been 3 points. That isn't even worth getting out of bed for a bull.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32197&stc=1&d=1350665679

 

6 - Lack of Counter Delta Conviction

 

In a counter-rotation I would want to see a strong delta push against the trend. This means there are some big players aggressively competing for what they see as unfair prices. i.e. the move has gone too far at least temporarily.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32198&stc=1&d=1350666089

 

7 - Any Rejection

 

As with the counter-rotations and the delta, until I see in the price action a really decent rejection at a good price, do I really believe it's worth taking a punt that the OTF have gone home?

 

8 - Range Estimation

 

Looking at the current volume, we're currently running at getting on for 150% of recent volume by this time of day. Even without this, clearly it's a big day. Big days recently have been in the region of 25+ points. So to me that means at least 20 points. So far we're at 19.50 but my point is that I have been looking at targets upwards of 20 points. That's why I posted the remark about possible levels below.

 

Anyway, having some sort of framework so you don't get shafted on this kind of day is imperative to imho. Otherwise it can set you back days or weeks in capital and emotions.

 

DON'T FADE AN ES TREND, PLEASE!

 

(and if you did, please just see this post as a way to help avoid it in the future and nothing more :))

5aa71161ec5d2_2012-10-19OpenDrive.thumb.jpg.badd46a929b695553ffd258c3a2d14da.jpg

5aa711620111f_2012-10-19IBExtension.thumb.jpg.ac6fa8497c3d9eb32bbbfdb53deb6191.jpg

5aa7116207b1d_2012-10-19One-Timeframing.thumb.jpg.66ed20361f492e2a3d01afa9ff67c790.jpg

5aa711620fc72_2012-10-19Counterrotations.thumb.jpg.4df33cb0185edfa5e5e95de4efcad08a.jpg

5aa7116218461_2012-10-19Cumulativedelta.thumb.jpg.e937beed1597102fa99ba9635c378e75.jpg

Edited by TheNegotiator

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice summary of points. Part of the problem recently I think is that we have been living in such low volatility and range bounce days that trend trending has slipped to the back of the trader's mindset. Time to dust it off and stick with the shorts until they fail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway, I hope it helps someone. It does seem to be a perpetual problem we come across though, which is why I thought I'd post a summary.

 

I would point out that what is basically a trend day can end up turning into a normal variation if it gets so far and opposite activity steps in closing the market far closer to the centre of the range. Closing towards the extreme (not necessarily at) helps to define it as a trend day.

 

Also worth pointing out is that the market behaves as a trend day until the point when it stops trending. This is a really big issue for guys who get run over by the trend in the first place. They're too slow to identify the trend and too slow to identify it's stopped.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the explanations and the charts.

 

The biggest problem I have with a day like this is, even though intraday trend and something like the $TICK remained thoroughly negative after the first hour of trading, I never seem to be able to take a second or a third or a fourth short (and I closed my first short with only a 3.5 point profit). My only consolation (and something I used to do with haBITUAL REGULARITY), I did not try any longs.

 

What was there that could have pointed to a BIG, persistent trend style slide?

 

and how far?

 

I don't know, suggest something I might time to research it this weekend.

 

I keep a measure that calcs 5 day average range and then also calcs a .618 expansion of that range (doesn't get there very often but when it does it is often a barrier to additional expansion (I don't know why).

 

That .618 expansion of the ave 5 day range calculated to 19.50 points. Take today's H minus 19.50 = 1430.75. So far, that's been the LOD to the tick. (markets are manipulated? Option Call writers certainly relished today's decline)

Big deal. WHat does it mean going forward?

 

I've gone back to look at the last time there was an RTH range expansion to the downside equal to or greater than the .618 expansion ... last occurred Sept 25, 2012.

 

Sept 25 ( a Tuesday) not only hit the .618 expansion level, it went down further by the end of the day.

next day Wed Sep 26) saw lethargic lift and then a retest of the sept25 LOD (came within 2.5 points of the Sep 25 Low) before Thursday's (Sep 27) REBOUND.

 

What was there that could have suggested an extended move lower today?

 

 

 

 

Anyone care to share anything that might have suggested an extended move down today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyway, I hope it helps someone. It does seem to be a perpetual problem we come across though, which is why I thought I'd post a summary.

 

I would point out that what is basically a trend day can end up turning into a normal variation if it gets so far and opposite activity steps in closing the market far closer to the centre of the range. Closing towards the extreme (not necessarily at) helps to define it as a trend day.

 

Also worth pointing out is that the market behaves as a trend day until the point when it stops trending. This is a really big issue for guys who get run over by the trend in the first place. They're too slow to identify the trend and too slow to identify it's stopped.

 

Yea... all good points. I just stopped out for 4.5 pt loss.. and that is it for today., considering i'm just closing the charts up now.

 

The weakness at this point has me both surprised, and a bit concerned about the longer term implications. Monthly chart of the ES is looking topped out... and though I am (and have been) quite bullish over all on the EUR/USD... it seems many "risk" markets are toppping out... longer term charts for many of them look bearish at this point...

 

So, I'm not quite sure what to expect myself here in the stock market.

 

I primarily trade currencies and crude... so I have a much better idea for them, but even now... the euro is at a bifurcation of sorts, and if it breaks up this is encouraging for the ES...if not, well, they could both get hurt.

 

Last but not least, the ES hasn't moved or consolidated in such a way that would clearly indicate it was ready for "the drop" should that be setting up at all... so that has me wondering just how likely it is without at least 1 more push to the upside... but, of course it could go either way.

 

I guess one thing is clear. I'm really not sure 1 way or the other about the ES.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vertigo,

 

We don't all have to be great at all market types. I think not getting flattened by this sort of day is almost enough in itself. Just because the market moves like this doesn't mean it's a great opportunity for everyone and in fact it clearly spells danger to many. The indicator fo such a move was probably Google and then what the market did. I didn't think it was necessarily going to do this but I had it as an option.

 

FTX,

 

I don't know yet what to expect. In the scheme of things this could just be a minor blip, a long liquidation day down to the lower part of the distribution. Given the election and earnings and Europe and the fact that we're pretty high already and that Google is a behemoth of a company I don't think that it's surprising that some positions are being squared up. If next week we power through the balance lows and drop below 1400 for a protracted period and can't retake it, that could spell something different. But I'm not too sure how far we might go anyway. In fairness even something below 1400 might just be a pretty temporary correction. Remember that we're backstopped by the Fed right now too. Anyway, one last point is that the same guys who get caught on a day like this also get caught on the rebound. I am NOT saying it WILL rebound, but you should have a plan for if it does and know what you're looking for before you trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like the 2664 target might be hit faster than expected. Just 20 pts away and down 70 pts from when I projected it. Maybe staying in overnight might have made sense after being up so much.

 

 

 

Okay just a little pat on the back here ... Low of the Day in NQ 2664.00

 

Wow !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very nice! Did you hold any to 64's?

 

No. That certainly is a problem I have relating my trading intraday trading targets to line up or use my projections of a possible path of price. In fact while I was mostly short during the "fall" it didn't stop me from taking some long scalps.

 

And to really take advantage of it I think you'd have had to hold overnight which I don't do on stock index futures. I think it also has to do with certainty - it's one thing to have a reasonable idea of what might unfold - and another to put your money on the line and watch it occur. I think we can all relate to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From "bigger picture thread" :-

 

Looking at the chart, although we sold off on friday, we did stay within the balance (low on 9/10 @ 1418.75). I've expanded it to illustrate the void down to around 1409.00 (low of 1403.75) from 9/6. The singles start below the 18.75. Although there are a couple of overlapping points, mostly the zone is thin. Above, I'd want to see a retest of 28.00, 31.25 or 33.75 hold (and reject) if I were holding a short imho.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32267&stc=1&d=1350911567

 

I think that although we sold off pretty hard on friday it still could just be a case of long liquidation. How much remains to be seen though. But the interesting point is that we finished right towards the low of the balance and that actually there was no rejection as such so we don't yet know if the low is in for the minute. The schedule for today is sparse and often trading after a big day leads to muted ranges. However, if the market is still weak people might not care. CAT reported and beat, YHOO is after the close.

 

The overnight profile doesn't show a great deal of consensus on value although test below low of fri is a clear area of low vol and the high is low vol from friday and the high of the last attempt higher before selling off into close.

 

An ETH chart reveals that there's possibly a case for support down to 15.50 area but that remains to be seen. Would like to see what happens on first test up and first test down.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32268&stc=1&d=1350912470

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32269&stc=1&d=1350912472

2012-10-22_2.thumb.jpg.caf075655a8269db955264383f3aec48.jpg

2012-10-22_3.thumb.jpg.e1d33772d9cb488b6e97ac5131d27122.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • META stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 507.48, 557.84 at https://stockconsultant.com/?META
    • TMUS T-Mobile stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?TMUS
    • KULR KULR Technology stock watch, pullback to 1.25 triple support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?KULR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.