Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[goodoboy 10]

long again 1463.50

 

reason, 1462.50 is support for me

[goodoboy 10]

long again 1463.50

 

reason, 1462.50 is support for me

 

breakeven again. looks like no new highs today as that was my target. Back to this 1462.50 again.

[slick60 10]

breakeven again. looks like no new highs today as that was my target. Back to this 1462.50 again.

 

Hi GOB

I do not know if you use market profile or not. Please allow me to comment as I see this market unfold for the RTH session on Friday. To me it looks like you had an upward bias in your mind from the trades you showed and you were fighting city hall for most of the day. Here is a snap of my RTH session broken down for you. A lot of information on it but it may help you and others. (Or it may confuse the hell out of all the people that read this thread}.

Note I use 15 minute brackets for my MP analysis. Once we had range extension below the IB I begin to look for clues. It did not run away with gusto to fill the opening gap so I watch for the possible completion of a bell curve. When I see it I am ready to take a break in direction. This one was south. Now I start to look for visual targets as shown on this chart -

1.- 6. and note the structure being built and how price reacts at each of these levels.

If we start to build a balance area I am continually looking to see if we are completeing bell curves.

Do not know if this will help, entertain or otherwise. This is how I see it.

 

2012-10-07_0807 - slick60's library

 

Take care and good trading

slick60

P.S. Please note there was a responsive single at 1466.00 on Sept 14 high of 1468.00. The high reversal Friday during 10:30-45 bracket was 1466.00.

Edited October 7, 2012 by slick60
Reason for high

[sdoma 10]

To me it looks like you had an upward bias in your mind from the trades you showed and you were fighting city hall for most of the day.

 

This was what I was thinking as well. There were actually several signs that we were going to retrace instead of making new highs, which GOB was betting on. I'll attach a couple of charts. One is a bit of a longer viewpoint, the other an intraday chart with the previous day's data included.

 

If you look at the longer term chart, notice that we've been moving upward day-on-day for several days already, without a significant retrace. We already have one gap which has gone unfilled, showing fairly strong buying action. While this doesn't turn my bias short, I understand that our chances of the market backfilling are somewhat elevated. In other words, it would take powerful buying action to propel this market further up, essentially creating a parabolic type of move.

 

NFP came out somewhat strong, but essentially right on expectations. Also, examining the numbers revealed that the dip below 8% was mostly due to part time positions being filled for the holidays. So, I went into this day basically with a wait-and-see attitude.

 

It opened up choppy, testing both down and up several times before making an attempt at new highs which, rather than being strongly rejected by sellers, just failed to find new buyers. The speed with which they hammered it down off those highs was a sign that a long bias might not be prudent.

 

At this point, if you choose to get short, your hypothesis should be that the market would return to more familiar ground, the high volume node it laid down yesterday. It proceeded to do just that.

 

I made some money yesterday on the short side. I'm not perfect by any means, but thinking out your bet to the end in relation to the greater context can help you filter out bad bets. Basically, if you bet on new highs you bet on exuberant buying, which was invalidated by the choppiness and multiple rejections of new highs on the open. I support that analysis with the observations noted on the charts.

[roztom 10]

Greetings to all of you... I see we have some traders here...

 

ES trend is still up...Friday sell-off imho was Responsive...Friday high 66.00 is a weak high..it will be revisited...

 

Market tested 53.00 area (key dividing area). and also 1 ticked Thursdays Opening Swing High before the extended range bar from Thursday...showing OTF buying interest in the 51.00 - 53.00 area.

 

It appears to me that OTF values prices and depending on GLobex Sunday night and relation to previous RTH I will be primarily looking to position long...

 

Of course it is possible to test to 1445.50 area but I am currently favoring long...

 

You guys look like you have been having fun here... I wish you all happy trading.. :missy:

[goodoboy 10]

Hi GOB

I do not know if you use market profile or not. Please allow me to comment as I see this market unfold for the RTH session on Friday. To me it looks like you had an upward bias in your mind from the trades you showed and you were fighting city hall for most of the day. Here is a snap of my RTH session broken down for you. A lot of information on it but it may help you and others. (Or it may confuse the hell out of all the people that read this thread}.

Note I use 15 minute brackets for my MP analysis. Once we had range extension below the IB I begin to look for clues. It did not run away with gusto to fill the opening gap so I watch for the possible completion of a bell curve. When I see it I am ready to take a break in direction. This one was south. Now I start to look for visual targets as shown on this chart -

1.- 6. and note the structure being built and how price reacts at each of these levels.

If we start to build a balance area I am continually looking to see if we are completeing bell curves.

Do not know if this will help, entertain or otherwise. This is how I see it.

 

2012-10-07_0807 - slick60's library

 

Take care and good trading

slick60

P.S. Please note there was a responsive single at 1466.00 on Sept 14 high of 1468.00. The high reversal Friday during 10:30-45 bracket was 1466.00.

 

Thanks for the input and comments. No, I do not use market profile or maybe I do. I really don't know, but I follow price action and look for support and resistance of what forms for the day. I don't want to get into market profile, I simply just want to follow the price action and see what happens next. If I go long, I look at the chart for what be next target or high it can go. Vice versa for going short. Thats it, cause now I know that most of the business its mostly emotional and risk management, so I focus on that for now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for your posts slick and sdoma. Some great insight there which I'm sure gave you a tidy profit too! Nice to see you around Tom! I agree that possibly we ran out of steam on current information to push any higher and so there's a decent chance to push on later on sometime (no timeframe for that - could be today, tomorrow or months from now). However, it's also possible that there is no more steam (not saying that's my view). A cursory look over the last couple of days gives me the feeling that we are aligning the balance profile upper development high volume nearer to the long-term profile high volume at 1455.50. Last 2 days has filled that bit in somewhat and we would need ~1000 more to trade at 55.50 than 53 for it to switch. The distribution is probably more important but the fact that volume is being traded higher in the distribution shouldn't be missed. So my thinking is today and maybe tomorrow, we could be "controlled" by this area and remain fairly well balanced around it. Of course I could be totally wrong - we could also see liquidation if say 49.25 then 43.75 were taken or we could dump or rally on new information to price (such as news etc.). Anyway, we watch, we wait, we see what happens and we act accordingly

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just doing some really basic stats on the last 5 Columbus day holidays we can see that there is a trend of lower volume & range although still ES does move.

 

 

Bearing in mind this is a 5 sample set, if things follow today and it's not outlier (which it could be if there's news or liquidation...) I would think that we could see volume between 550-825k and a range of 6-10 points ROUGHLY.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Longer term view which I will discuss in bigger picture thread:-

 

[slick60 10]

Viewing overnight price action at this point I see inventory as being almost 100% short. To me that means that the market maker in order to get paid must move prices up to punish the shorts. Market profile traders will see that there is an HVN at 1445.50 and an N POC at 1443.25. They have that gravitational pull and would count out into an Elliott wave pattern for an intraday reversal should price move to those levels. I follow markets using the Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix as most are aware who have read any of my posts. Today an Intermediate price high is due on average, however the Friday high was probably it. Also note if you are not aware the moon was in apogee on Friday and highs very often come in during this period. My longer term wave count says we are in a 4th wave and we have two support levels that we may retrace to.

I will include a daily chart showing those levels.

My bias today (should not do that) is for a move lower if not in at this time to the levels mentioned above and then a fibonacci retrace to the area of 1457.75 - my daily central pivot. I still am aware that a higher high may get popped in early this weekend and will let price action guide me.

 

daily 2012-10-08_0745 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[goodoboy 10]

Anyway, we watch, we wait, we see what happens and we act accordingly

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Thanks TheNegotiator,

 

Well, said and I am in agreement.

[goodoboy 10]

short 1451

 

reason: Trend of the moment is down, and I have 1452 as resistance from overnight price action. Waiting for 1449 to be tested and hopefully break through.

[TheNegotiator 13]

short 1451

 

reason: Trend of the moment is down, and I have 1452 as resistance from overnight price action. Waiting for 1449 to be tested and hopefully break through.

 

Where are you wrong? Above 52?

[goodoboy 10]

Where are you wrong? Above 52?

 

Say that again, I don't understand what you wrote?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Say that again, I don't understand what you wrote?

 

where's your stop ?

[goodoboy 10]

where's your stop ?

 

My stop was at 1452.50. Now its at breakeven.

[vertigo333 10]

Weird day today, Bank Holiday, (Columbus Day) no Bond trading.

 

57 area seems really important to me. It was the H of the week before last week.

Think about it it, last week peeked ABOVE that 57 Weekly High and basically was rejected. Is it really Resistance? a re-test with a rejection would strengthen that opinion.

 

Thursday into Friday overnight Low was 54.50... I see on overnight chart that 30 minute bar (2:30am to 3:00am) had H print of 54.50, and Rejected. SO on the chart (just a price chart) 54.50 is B/E line for traders that shorted overnight.

 

 

Friday L of RTH was 48.75. That was undercut by a single tick in the overnight and buyers emerged (I think buyers emerged to take profit on shorts)

 

DB without going more than a point below current overnight Low of 48.50 would be a real strong potential reversal point.

 

That's my opinion.

 

and remember...

 

"Markets are never wrong; Opinions are." JL Livermore

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not really managed to get anywhere yet. If we were to get above Friday's low 51.25 then we could move to 55.25 high vol and close gap to 55.75. Below current low at 48's and we could well slip to 45.50 naked vpoc, 45.25 high vol, 44.50 naked close, 43.75 low vol. Both sides are well within reach of ranges I suggested earlier. upper target to 55.75 is minimum of 7.75 pts range and lower to 43.75 is minimum 7.00 pts range.

[goodoboy 10]

My stop was at 1452.50. Now its at breakeven.

 

Well, brokeven on that trade. Price just wouldn't push lower, so now wait and see.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Currently :-

 

 

Lower and lows could be retested.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1450.25

 

reason: tested lows down there at 48-49, so buying in hopes that 51-52 is take out to the upside.

[joshdance 10]

Hello all, haven't checked in here in a while, thought I would say hello. My low buy area is 44-45s, and my high sell area is 62s, but if the market trades 55s which it looks like it is trying to do, it presents an interesting potential opportunity ahead of 62s, 55 being Thursday's VPOC, almost Friday's VPOC in the lower balance part of the day, and where the market settled Friday at 55.50.

 

Also, Monday Oct 1 VPOC which was 48.75 was Wednesday's high, Thursday's low, and has so far supported the market today as well. Buy opportunity there, but my analysis leads me to conclude that it is better to wait for mid 44s/45s for a larger swing back up to 62.

 

How is everyone?

[slick60 10]

Hello all, haven't checked in here in a while, thought I would say hello. My low buy area is 44-45s, and my high sell area is 62s, but if the market trades 55s which it looks like it is trying to do, it presents an interesting potential opportunity ahead of 62s, 55 being Thursday's VPOC, almost Friday's VPOC in the lower balance part of the day, and where the market settled Friday at 55.50.

 

Also, Monday Oct 1 VPOC which was 48.75 was Wednesday's high, Thursday's low, and has so far supported the market today as well. Buy opportunity there, but my analysis leads me to conclude that it is better to wait for mid 44s/45s for a larger swing back up to 62.

 

How is everyone?

 

Hi Josh

You asked. Gotta tell you. I was sitting in the library this morning and said to myself " I wonder what ever happened to Dancing Josh?". Lo and behold here you are.

 

slick

[goodoboy 10]

long 1450.25

 

reason: tested lows down there at 48-49, so buying in hopes that 51-52 is take out to the upside.

 

Lost -0.50 on this one. Done what Mr. market for today.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hello all, haven't checked in here in a while, thought I would say hello. My low buy area is 44-45s, and my high sell area is 62s, but if the market trades 55s which it looks like it is trying to do, it presents an interesting potential opportunity ahead of 62s, 55 being Thursday's VPOC, almost Friday's VPOC in the lower balance part of the day, and where the market settled Friday at 55.50.

 

Also, Monday Oct 1 VPOC which was 48.75 was Wednesday's high, Thursday's low, and has so far supported the market today as well. Buy opportunity there, but my analysis leads me to conclude that it is better to wait for mid 44s/45s for a larger swing back up to 62.

 

How is everyone?

 

Hey Josh. Nice to see you buddy. Same went through my mind earlier when I saw Tom had posted too. My levels are pretty similar but not expecting too much today. Who knows though. As they say, ach