Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Are there any generalities anyone can make regarding a particularly small IB?

 

or, for that matter, anything expected once there is a large range IB?

 

The point about the IB is that a good amount of business is done in the first hour by big players (OTF). A small IB means probably that there's not too much OTF interest (aka market movers) and therefore there might not be a huge range for the rest of the session. On the other hand, it could also mean that they're waiting for some specific information due to come out imminently before acting.

 

A large IB could be that the market has reacted to something early on or premarket (such as eco numbers etc.). There is a big move but then little further interest in pushing any more. It could be that you get a "normal" day whereby neither the IB high or low is taken out and the implication of this is that possibly OTF cancel each other out. So once this has been resolved in the following session(s), a move can take place. It could also be that there is big news to be priced in and an IB extreme breaks fairly quickly. This could for example, give rise to a trend day.

 

Ultimately, it's all about market logic and assessing what you feel is more likely to happen so when opportunities arise, you are better placed to decide on whether or not you feel they are good ones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm still long half.. missed my exit by about 1 tick.. market still seems like it wants to test the highs.

 

Possibly, but it's currently a more appealing to go watch some paint dry! The danger I find in markets like these is when it does break against you it's sooooo slow that you feel cheated somehow and hold a bit longer than you really should.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So how does everyone see the current market behavior?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31346&stc=1&d=1347973315

 

Thanks,

 

Market behavior is slow as it was yesterday. But still good trading to be done is this narrow range if considering the extreme ranges 1355 to 1349. I am just watching for now.

 

I am hoping for a market pull back. Then I will consider longs some stocks up until end of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stopped out on remaining half above break even... hit profit target for day.. disappointing as I missed my exit by 1 tick but that's life... this looks like a range day... buying off the 50 looks good again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing that I'd point out and to be absolutely clear, I'm not say we won't go higher first, is that the current rth and overnight lows are not especially strong. Now, you could say that actually nothing is especially strong anyway as there's not a lot going on, but still the overnight and rth lows were not well rejected. This could mean at some point we will retest them.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31351&stc=1&d=1347984960

2012-09-18_3.thumb.jpg.902b3b11da387a0d58ddc13602ab3c75.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could not get filled.. off 50.. may be DFD was probably 150-200 contracts from getting filled..

---

Okay... I'm long off the 50... First target 53ish may take a scalp

---

Programs selling...

---

ES just skipped a tick....don't recall seeing that in RT hours... spread widened I believe to 1 tick there for a second

--

Buy programs triggering.. some risk here if 50 is taken out of triggering a stop run

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sellers in control.... last call was a good one though... likely break new lows..

 

Still would not short here... until 50 is taken out. at any rate.. DFD exceeded profit target but missed my exits by about 1 tick... very jittery market..

 

lol.. either that or a big trader executed a sell program to take out the longs off 50... nice one

 

well I'm dfd anyway.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking for a high and reversal between now and Friday this week. Around the 1472.00 area would suffice for this high and then a nice sizeable retrace into October.

Still have to get up above that 1600.00 level to end this baby for a really gooooooooood short.

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why do you think we could get a large retrace from 1472.00?

 

Hi N

I follow these markets using various approaches as I having posted on this thread in the past.

At present a wave pattern is telling me that we should see a retrace back to the 1390.00 area ( I felt that was large in relation to what we have been seeing recently). Also the wave pattern says we have the possibility of an irregular flat correction that we are in at present that fibs out in the area of 1472-73.00 If the high is in place at this time or very soon to come with a little pop my Delta cycle work says we are running out of time for this high to come in and to start the correction into mid October at least.

In an "UP" market this high can come in late however time is running out.

The wave pattern is really hard to put a clear handle on it and I am not certain as to how far we will go down. On my daily chart there is a 50% retrace at a 4th wave level which should be a normal pull back area. Lower will not surprise me.

 

daily chart 2012-09-19_2043 - slick60's library

The weekly chart below shows the delta cycles into the future

weekly 2012-09-19_2045 - slick60's library

 

Same reasoning as I used in April looking the opposite way of most everyone at that time. Couple posts there on pages 443 and 452.

 

Take care

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the explanation Slick. It certainly seems possible that we get some sort of retrace given the rejection at 1468.00. If we were to start dropping into the 'naked' part of the 9/13 profile then a test down to 1428.25 would look to be on the cards. Then similarly with the below 18.75 into the 'naked' part of the 9/6 profile, there might be a further flush lower. Below is a session gap to 1396.75 and this is 1 tick short of the balance profile VPOC at 1396.50. The market does tend to leave these kind of markers for future tests (by its very nature). This is right in the middle of a not so clean development on the long-term profile between 1386.00 and 1409.00 ish so somewhere around 90 would make sense if we were to move down.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31372&stc=1&d=1348135629

2012-09-20.thumb.jpg.deef42751a58b9331f900570369b7214.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overnight we've seen a test of that area below I mentioned I was watching just above 45. The 45.25 is a long-term high volume peak and the 45.75 was the end of a single print. Much below this and a failure to get back above 49.50/50.00 and hold, I'd think a bigger flush could be on the cards, but who knows. There is newsflow on Greece right now and we have Philly Fed + Leading Indicators @10am. Plus there are a bunch of Fed speakers throughout the session.

 

Here are a couple of charts:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31373&stc=1&d=1348146682

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31374&stc=1&d=1348146682

Btw, note the 'poor' MP high from yesterday @59.00

2012-09-20_2.thumb.jpg.994fe769b4692a04455eb43c5d44efb8.jpg

2012-09-20_3.thumb.jpg.a9ddb3aaff0deaef744e12f18e85ab3d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Retest of 50 and 53 is likely in play now

---

Limit seller off 65.50 should be short term traders only.. anticipate it to lift but if it doesnt then we could retest lower

---

New limit seller off the 48.50... may be serious seller... will likely reduce uncertain

---

New limit buyer off 46.75... stepped up....

----

I'm out.... not liking it

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.