Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[ForexTraderX 10]

Looks like the euro might hold the low here around 1.2560.... I tend to think it will... at least, I doubt we'll see much lower than 2550 before the end of the trading day today.

 

if it does, then the ES will likley also be bottoming out here around 1402.50...

 

but, I don't like to trade much on friday.... seems if i've had a good week, i worry I might trade scared due to a fear of losing what i've made...and if it's been a bad week, well, i feel a good deal of pressure to try to improve my week on the final day before it's totally done.

 

Either way, it's not good for me, and so I take a very light approach to most fridays.

 

i've made more money on the average since doing this. I know others that don't do much (or anything) on fridays... not that this reflects on your trading today in any way... but, well, I just don't trust friday trading in general.

 

So anyth8ing I say about what I think may or may not happen on a friday is advised to be viewed with an air of skepticism

Edited August 31, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Your interpretation of what might happen after BB was pretty much what I had. Two points though. 1 - knee jerk reactions can slice through you pretty badly if you're not careful and stop you out before the market realises it's 'wrong'. 2 - given that "informed players" had been expecting no QE right now and that the market was advertising lower prices, there'd likely be some traders licking their lips ready to load up. So why did you buy at 98.25 with a 2 pt target??? It worked, but maximising your profits is just as important as minimising your losses.

 

your right... and the reasons are more psych than anything. After seeing how "lucky" i did get on the first trade and how close it came to being a losing or BE trade, and being that I trade very light on friday in general (due to lessons learned long ago...) I just wanted to grab the "surest thing possible". I've risked my account all week long at this point, and though it really all comes down to psych stuff and comfort zones and what not... well, I listen to those feelings now. And I just didn't want to be risking anything much today at all.

 

In this state of mind, I couldn't have held a trade for any significant move, because i just wouldn't have been comfortable.

 

however, because it was such a good opportunity, i would have regretted not doing anything. So i did the best I could... and took a compromise. small risk, small reward trade that would resolve quickly without any risk of doing much damage to the success i've had thus far this week, but one that I would be completely fine with if it lost, knowing i did everything I could to minimize loss, and take a good opportunity. It wouldn't destablize me or bother me, and that way I would be able to start next week fresh, and unencumbered.

 

as I think we both know... it was not the best use of opportunity, and was even more conservative than the trade before, which is illogical...

 

but it would ensure mental stability for the coming week... and that took importance above all other reasons, logic be damned.

 

P.S. as far as knee jerk reactions cutting through levels... ya... that's why I only had a single order pending, and the rest (if any) would have been manually executed. I also knew how much all 3 (my max) trades would have lost me had they all stopped out, and it was an amount that would keep me in profit for the week, and one that I was mentally "OK" with... so, it was OK for me. Aggressive though, yes... particularly that first trade.

Edited August 31, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

if we do move up...and it looks like we will from here... I think we could retest 1407.75 - 1408 pretty darn fast... and from there... if there is any momentum (and on friday, it's anyones guess)... the next move i'd think would break the highs around 1412.

Edited August 31, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[goodoboy 10]

I see what you are doing, and I thought I would mention a couple of things

 

First, "trend" depends on both time & price....I use three time frames 10min, 3 min and 1 min

 

Second "trend" is simply when candles or bars move vertically....when you have trend it means markets are out of balance and one side (buyers or sellers) are at least for the moment, in control....in contrast when you see candles or bars moving horizontally, what you see is balance (at least for the moment) between buyers and sellers

 

To determine trend, decide what time frame you want to trade on, then ask yourself what do I see....vertical movement or horizontal movement....if you can't tell, move to the next time frame up or down...if you move up (to the longer time frame) you see direction...if you move down, you see granularity (it gets easier to see horizontal movement)...

 

Your choice of time frame is important...because it determines your entry, stoploss and profit target...the longer your time frame, the "further out" you have to go on each of those elements.

 

From my point of view the best way to go is to look at the big picture...what was price doing prior to your decision....then look at what it is doing now...if the market was trending, and now is just moving in a range...what I would do (if I thought price was going to resume trending) would be to try to get on board toward the low of that range...do you see what I am saying...?

If you think the previous trend is over, you want to wait for a new trend to show itself...then begin the evaluation process all over again...

 

Remember that an intraday basis, the market cycles between trend and range bound, between balance and imbalance...what you want to do is to find a way to "get into" or use that rhythm....

 

Keep it simple.

 

Hope that helps.

 

Thank you Steve.

 

See my picture and maybe I need to scale down to 3 min chart for better entry. Did I do something wrong on that trade? I admit, I should have entered on the first retrace of the uptrend. This is the only way that make sense to me.

 

Like now, the direction/trend is down right, so what wrong with me going short at 1404? This is the only way i see it for now until I finish reading price action.

[Predictor 11]

I'm viewing today's action as rather bearish in short time frame. The big traders were short positioned before the event and they for sure came in at the highs to protect their positions.

[TheNegotiator 13]

if we do move up...and it looks like we will from here... I think we could retest 1407.75 - 1408 pretty darn fast... and from there... if there is any momentum (and on friday, it's anyways guess)... the next move i'd think would break the highs around 1412.

 

Maybe. Clearly there was a bit of a battle ~ yesterday's high there and buyers did step in. IF it made new highs, I have 14.50 then 16.75 as targets. It'd be a statement of intent if they managed to close it above there into the holiday weekend.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm viewing today's action as rather bearish in short time frame. The big traders were short positioned before the event and they for sure came in at the highs to protect their positions.

 

Maybe, maybe not. In fairness, considering the fairly quick move up and on low volume, there's a pretty reasonable chance that it was responsive selling. To me, if we finished inside the current range or extended then retraced before the close, it'd effectively be a neutral day. i.e. OTF traded both sides of the range.

 

Anyway, I have no bias right now other than that we're in the middle (ish) of a pretty poorly defined volume development (on the long-term chart). So let's see what does happen :missy:

 

[Predictor 11]

Drive below 1401ish (I don't share exact levels but know them) could send us down to prior lows. Not looking good for long trade here.

----

Bias is short here. Position is flat. No more trading today for me.

Edited August 31, 2012 by Predictor

[ForexTraderX 10]

Maybe. Clearly there was a bit of a battle ~ yesterday's high there and buyers did step in. IF it made new highs, I have 14.50 then 16.75 as targets. It'd be a statement of intent if they managed to close it above there into the holiday weekend.

 

 

yea... totally agreed with intent if we could close somewhere around 1411+... and though it was looking bullish a few moments ago around the stall at 1402, now, I have no idea.

 

It seems that one could make an argument for some support existing every 4-5 points on the way down, until about 1380... but similar statements could be made up through 1420...

 

i guess that's why we have been ranging and PA has been inconclusive in terms of signaling continued uptrend or decisive reversal down.

 

these types of conditions, IMO, make market prognostication more difficult... and thus why in such situations, I tend to just take trades from one level of volume density through "liquidity gaps", and back...etc. Anything else other than the next immediate level is beyond my ability in such trendless conditions...

 

At least until price gets there... but trying to do such on a friday before a holiday weekend coming off the slowest month of the year without any significant "paradigm shifting" news or world events in a rather trendless market... is... challenging to say the least

 

i'm just all warm and fuzzy inside that I took 2 profitable trades for a handful of ticks!

[TheNegotiator 13]

I am not an MP expert. However, shape is important in MP. Clearly we are not trending as such and yet the MP (block profile (yes I've removed the letters)) shows a not very well defined curve. Could we turn to a trending market? Sure. Is it also possible we are looking at a market with no clear view of value right now? Probably. I think it's more than possible (but by no means a certainty - nothing is in trading or in life) that we need to 'resolve' value before moving. back below 1392 or above 1416.75. That could happen today or the next session, although news seems to throw a spanner in the works pretty frequently at the moment and given that Monday is not a European holiday...

 

Here's the MP:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I thought I'd do a chart to illustrate the action of the market since 8/3- the start of the current balance profile. In fairness, before the development wasn't that well defined, but it was there. Anyway, take a look:-

 

 

The far right hand profile only includes data up to and including 8/2.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1403.75 out at 1406.75 +3pts

 

market started going up again, i bought on retrace after supply line since drop at 1408 occured.

[goodoboy 10]

 

From my point of view the best way to go is to look at the big picture...what was price doing prior to your decision....then look at what it is doing now...if the market was trending, and now is just moving in a range...what I would do (if I thought price was going to resume trending) would be to try to get on board toward the low of that range...do you see what I am saying...?

 

Keep it simple.

 

Hope that helps.

 

Yes, keep it simple. This is all I want do is buy/sell at the low part of range in any direction of price movement on a retrace. Counter-trading even doing intra-day trading does not work for me, neither does looking for the bottom. one thing I am adding to my journal is try best to get the first retracement.

[steve46 12]

Yes, keep it simple. This is all I want do is buy/sell at the low part of range in any direction of price movement on a retrace. Counter-trading even doing intra-day trading does not work for me, neither does looking for the bottom. one thing I am adding to my journal is try best to get the first retracement.

 

Hi

Sorry to have missed your other comments...I was up working the evening market and had to get some sleep.....as we discussed that first pullback is usually a good bet...understand that you need to monitor your market....and ask yourself "has that strategy been working in this market"....one of the things you will eventually get is that it is equally important to know when to stand aside, as it is to know when to get in....

[steve46 12]

and here's something that might be of interest to you

 

People talk about trading price action, but then do not really seem to know what that means

 

Price does in fact "tell you" what it is likely to do if you know where to look and how to intepret the behavior you see..

 

In the attached chart look over to the left, you can see my green arrow next to the wide range "up"candle"....nothing mysterious about it....significant buying came in there...now look to the right and you can see that as we retest that area, there is still what I call a "residual" reaction back up as buyers come in to defend those prices....in fact it happens several times

 

You have to become a good observer....and in time, a skilled interpreter of price action.

 

Some pretty good opportunities there if you put in the time...

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

What happened with the ES there towards the close?

 

After that failed push up to 1408.25 it seemed to go a little crazy with the flutter and 85k contracts traded . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

[TheNegotiator 13]

So we're still in the same balance as we were before Friday. Looking ahead, we have ECB rate decision on Thursday and Friday is non-farm payrolls. Next week is probably most important though. Wednesday 12th Germans rule on ESM's constitutional legality and Thursday 13th is FOMC rate decision where we will be looking for QE clues once again.

 

Anyway, here's the chart just in case there's some of you not on holiday

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Notice btw how both balance profiles (red and hollowgram) now have a vpoc of 1409.00. Consensus on value is homing in on that price.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone think we're going to get an ISM print above 50? I'm not sure the market will like it if we do as it could be seen to diminish chances of stimulus. Just have to see I guess.

[goodoboy 10]

Anyone think we're going to get an ISM print above 50? I'm not sure the market will like it if we do as it could be seen to diminish chances of stimulus. Just have to see I guess.

 

I am not sure what the number will be. But I am short 1404.25 with at target of 1400 if it is bad. Of course bring stop to break even incase they are good. Price is making a trend of downside, so I better get on board and get to managing.

Edited September 4, 2012 by goodoboy

[goodoboy 10]

I am not sure what the number will be. But I am short 1404.25 with at target of 1400 if it is bad. Of course bring stop to break even incase they are good. Price is making a trend of downside, so I better get on board and get to managing.

 

Exit at 1400, now lets see where the buyers wanna get in at .

[boofis 10]

97.25 and 97.50 seem to be attracting some longs with size before that little shake out perhaps.

[goodoboy 10]

So we're still in the same balance as we were before Friday. Looking ahead, we have ECB rate decision on Thursday and Friday is non-farm payrolls. Next week is probably most important though. Wednesday 12th Germans rule on ESM's constitutional legality and Thursday 13th is FOMC rate decision where we will be looking for QE clues once again.

 

Anyway, here's the chart just in case there's some of you not on holiday

 

 

Thank you for the chart.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thank you for the chart.

 

No problem.

 

Here's another showing the profile so far today:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so this is the chart today. Not much changed but here it is:-