Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so it can go up or down....good to know

 

Here is my entry screen, showing the sequence for today

 

Our "pre-open bias" is based on two things...the first is an analysis of the previous day's action (I will talk about it on my thread) and the next is pending reports (Pending Home Sales and Beige Book)...

 

On the open we tested the previous day's POC at 1408.50 and that (for me) is a pretty high quality initial entry right off the opening move

 

The second entry (two "down" arrows") shows our algo signal...the initial signal comes at approx 6:40....and we take it because it is a preferred time to enter (based on our system)

 

The next is the retest...we call this our "2nd chance" or 2nd entry because if we missed the initial signal, we get this second chance to get on board...(alternatively the trader can "recharge" an existing position if they took partial profit earlier)

 

We call this a "short to long" sequence and it is common for the broader market primarily due to the new driven nature of things these days...It is one of the things I cover when I show folks how to "characterize the market"....

 

and the last occurs just after the release of Pending Home sales..The release showed unexpected strength for sales in the western US...the initial market response takes less than a minute so you have to be ready to act....the doji's show the indecision as participants decide how to respond to the release data...for us it is a fairly high prob entry at the bottom of a node...and now the market bias turns up...

 

Good luck in the markets folks

 

I agree with those areas and possible trades although wasn't totally convinced on the 8.50 long idea from yesterday's poc. 8.00 was also the 24hr mid and an activity ledge into close, so it could be argued it was a decent enough punt. "shows our algo signal" is interesting though. To me it looks like an RTH test of yesterday's VPOC with no follow through. Why is it an algo pattern exactly? Please explain this in a detailed way otherwise it's just not useful. A rule for this thread is that people should explain statements and ideas so it can benefit others. Thanks.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tiny 3.75 pt initial balance today confined by yesterday's value area.

 

[steve46 12]

I agree with those areas and possible trades although wasn't totally convinced on the 8.50 long idea from yesterday's poc. 8.00 was also the 24hr mid and an activity ledge into close, so it could be argued it was a decent enough punt. "shows our algo signal" is interesting though. To me it looks like an RTH test of yesterday's VPOC with no follow through. Why is it an algo pattern exactly? Please explain this in a detailed way otherwise it's just not useful. A rule for this thread is that people should explain statements and ideas so it can benefit others. Thanks.

 

I have explained the concept many times sir....but for you....once more as follows

 

Clearly about 2/3 to 3/4 of volume is automated....of that a significant percentage uses a technique whereby they intercept order flow and act on it in a number of ways....including adding volume to bump the market in a direction (to activate other bots) or to ghost orders (to probe in order to activate stops)...the result of these many different programmed actions is a characteristic pattern that shows up as a move up or down, a slight retracement and then a retest (or series of retests of the same price point depending on the time frame)....I have posted many examples of this here in this thread...by all means do your own research...

 

And now...I think I done my "duty"...and in addition let me say that I don't see everyone else doing the same....posting that the market is going up or down doesn't do more than display uncertainty... but by all means carry on as you were...gentlemen..

 

Good day

 

PS

 

By the way, one more thing has to be said....when you say you're not "convinced"...lets be realistic...who among us has complete certainty about any single trade...I certainly don't...in my world there are high and low probability entries and thats the best I can do...moves out of the POC are written about in Dalton and other texts...so this is not from "left field"....we are paid to take risk and manage it intelligently...thats the game...if I may suggest...

 

I hope this explains my comment to your satisfaction

 

Best of luck to you all

Edited August 29, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have explained the concept many times sir....but for you....once more as follows

 

Clearly about 2/3 to 3/4 of volume is automated....of that a significant percentage uses a technique whereby they intercept order flow and act on it in a number of ways....including adding volume to bump the market in a direction (to activate other bots) or to ghost orders (to probe in order to activate stops)...the result of these many different programmed actions is a characteristic pattern that shows up as a move up or down, a slight retracement and then a retest (or series of retests of the same price point depending on the time frame)....I have posted many examples of this here in this thread...by all means do your own research...

 

And now...I think I done my "duty"...and in addition let me say that I don't see everyone else doing the same....posting that the market is going up or down doesn't do more than display uncertainty... but by all means carry on as you were...gentlemen..

 

Good day

 

1- I don't believe you have explained it before.

2- I don't believe that was an adequate explanation.

3- Posting a few arrows on a historical chart after it has moved does not show that you nailed the market. I'm not saying that you didn't btw.

 

Thanks for your input steve.

[Predictor 11]

Nice work if you can get it... great job to the pit boys for running those break even short stops. Cleared out that short inventory nice before the real run...

[steve46 12]

1- I don't believe you have explained it before.

2- I don't believe that was an adequate explanation.

3- Posting a few arrows on a historical chart after it has moved does not show that you nailed the market. I'm not saying that you didn't btw.

 

Thanks for your input steve.

 

Really now

 

The point isn't to prove that I "nailed the market" (I go to the bank to do that)

 

But to add value so that other folks can learn something...

 

When it becomes a matter of proving that I can do this let me know....and I will leave the field to you and others who think thats important.

 

and now if you don't mind I really do want to try to make a few dollars

 

 

 

Good luck

[goodoboy 10]

short 1406.25, target 1403.25, stop 1407.50

 

 

trend of the moment is downward, and I want to get on board.

 

Update: breakeven

Edited August 29, 2012 by goodoboy

[TheNegotiator 13]

short 1406.25, target 1403.25, stop 1407.50

 

 

trend of the moment is downward, and I want to get on board.

 

Fair enough. Interestingly, the 2xIB comes in at 1403.00 - 1 tick below yesterday's low. Just a thought if the IBL holds.

[Predictor 11]

Strong support underneath these lows. Traders buying at current lows. It may be difficult to get significant range extension this week given the possibility for late week market moving news.

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Bias is long for a scalp.

[Predictor 11]

Nice work if you can get it... dfd

[goodoboy 10]

Strong support underneath these lows. Traders buying at current lows. It may be difficult to get significant range extension this week given the possibility for late week market moving news.

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Bias is long for a scalp.

 

Its sure giving me a headache.

[MightyMouse 12]

These small ranges are simply pathetic. It's easy to start trading rags on days like today.

[bakrob99 11]

These small ranges are simply pathetic. It's easy to start trading rags on days like today.

 

Well, it's a first for me. I didn't have to change either my RTH High or the RTH Low this AM on the NQ as they were EXACTLY the same as yesterday'. With the open, close and the VPOC all within 1 point in the middle it was certainly a day to buy the low and sell the high.

 

This rangebound market will move when t breaks out of here. And I'm looking at the VIX which has started trending up and thinking ... short (but at the highs).

[bakrob99 11]

Having said short... I must also accept that we are at support and so far showing signs of buying.

 

My 30min longer term (2 week) shows possible upside rotation.

 

 

 

If the support fails then a test of prior lows is in sight.

[Predictor 11]

My general impression is that institutional sentiment is short biased but there is a not insignificant chance of the market moving explosively higher.

 

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Long off the open on tape read.

 

----

 

Adding to long. Need to see a good movement here or precarious position.

[DbPhoenix 42]

What a nice hinge on the NQ. So far it's plunged 7pts.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

And back to R.......

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

And back to S again. Institutional sentiment seems to be down. Or up. Or both. Or maybe neither. Maybe it doesn't matter. Perhaps just following price is all it takes.

 

Db

[Predictor 11]

Bias has shift to short side

[DbPhoenix 42]

Lower low to next level of S.

 

This is where the fun starts.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Test of S not encouraging.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Oops. Can we reach 50?

 

Db

[Predictor 11]

Nice work if you can get it... taking my shorts off... really added to those and made them work. Difficult start.. was up a lot on my long but didn't protect my profits.. close to max loss but recovered. Not quite hit profit target but a nice recovery.

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Bias is long here for a scalp..

[bakrob99 11]

10:38 EDT Counter trend trade of the week. LONG 1397.25 Stop 6 ticks

 

Basically, I see evidence of buying at the IBL. Admittedly 1396 is my support and we haven't got there yet so I'm probably early.

 

I'll either hold on for a while or be out before this post gets read.

 

UPDATE 10:50: stopped

Edited August 30, 2012 by bakrob99

[Predictor 11]

We could see more lows today.. could be a day to hold. Maybe this is the setup.. to run the market down so we can rally on the news? Pit boys.. we supposed to work together. I didn't get the memo that we weren't going to 1404ish today before heading lower. j/k

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My read of this market is that institutions were shorting for last several days. Its a good example of how well the LQ providers can hold the market up before a real move happens.