Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

 

The stochastic isn't going to help you in either case.

 

Db

 

I'm slowly fading the slow stochastic out the picture.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1406, stop 1403 (but will manage and exit if price not break HOD yesterday)

 

Target: 1416. But need to see 1410 break first.

 

Reason: trend is up. buying off pivot support and broke out of channel Db showed yesterday.

Edited August 14, 2012 by goodoboy

[goodoboy 10]

  goodoboy said:

long 1406, stop 1403 (but will manage and exit if price not break HOD yesterday)

 

Target: 1416. But need to see 1410 break first.

 

Reason: trend is up. buying off pivot support and broke out of channel Db showed yesterday.

 

exit trade at 1404.50 after a weak open.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

long 1406, stop 1403 (but will manage and exit if price not break HOD yesterday)

 

Target: 1416. But need to see 1410 break first.

 

Reason: trend is up. buying off pivot support and broke out of channel Db showed yesterday.

 

Yes and no. It "exited" the channel, but the breakout was weak. And you'll notice that by 0900 the buying and selling waves were pretty much equal. This suggests that at least for the time being, traders are looking for or creating a new range. Until that's established or exited, I'd rather just stand aside.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Yes and no. It "exited" the channel, but the breakout was weak. And you'll notice that by 0900 the buying and selling waves were pretty much equal. This suggests that at least for the time being, traders are looking for or creating a new range. Until that's established or exited, I'd rather just stand aside.

 

Db

 

Yes, that the same I am thinking, just standing aside for now. The channel broke last night and held the upper channel. Now just sitting here.

[Predictor 11]

Tape action today is somewhat more erratic then usual... lots of programs triggering against each other.. suspect that new types of relationships are forming which may be the reason..

--

LQ providers will often pull the offer making the market jump 2-3 ticks to run stops and B/E entries before the market starts a new leg down.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Predictor

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Yes and no. It "exited" the channel, but the breakout was weak. And you'll notice that by 0900 the buying and selling waves were pretty much equal. This suggests that at least for the time being, traders are looking for or creating a new range. Until that's established or exited, I'd rather just stand aside.

 

Db

 

I drew some supply/demand lines on the chart attached. I wanted to go short after break of the demand line. Price action broke and then re-tested. At that time I should have took the risk with short entry.

 

I use to mistake supply/demand lines for trendlines, so did I draw the supply/demand lines corrrect?

[bakrob99 11]

Selling highs and buying lows has been the key for me in the NQ today. ES had a nice short off the open and that was it. Gap filled and bounced. BUT the NQ didn't fill and in the absence of much volume to the upside i am thinking a fill is upcoming on the NQ

[bakrob99 11]

NQ continues towards gap (2728.00)

 

NQ has been 10000 times better to trade than ES today IMO

 

UPDATE 12:40 EDT filled nice !

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

I drew some supply/demand lines on the chart attached. I wanted to go short after break of the demand line. Price action broke and then re-tested. At that time I should have took the risk with short entry.

 

I use to mistake supply/demand lines for trendlines, so did I draw the supply/demand lines corrrect?

 

Yes, you drew them correctly, though they'd be easier to see without all the other stuff:)

 

The problem here is that the short entry takes place immediately upon the break of the demand line. It takes balls of a certain size to take a short at that point. If yours aren't big enough yet, just let it go. Another opportunity arose a little later, 15m after you printed your chart. Later you may have more confidence in your ability to manage the earlier trade.

 

As for the difference between S/D lines and trendlines, they have different functions. The supply line, for example, shows where and when supply overwhelms demand. The trendline shows trend. These often follow the same course, but whereas price can leave the trendline to some degree, it can't leave the S/D lines. If it does, they have to be redrawn. Otherwise, they serve no purpose.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Yes, you drew them correctly, though they'd be easier to see without all the other stuff:)

 

The problem here is that the short entry takes place immediately upon the break of the demand line. It takes balls of a certain size to take a short at that point. If yours aren't big enough yet, just let it go. Another opportunity arose a little later, 15m after you printed your chart. Later you may have more confidence in your ability to manage the earlier trade.

 

Db

 

Thanks. HAHAHAHAHHAHAH Yes, mine are not big enough to short right after break. Yes, there was another entry, but i missed not paying attention.

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

 

As for the difference between S/D lines and trendlines, they have different functions. The supply line, for example, shows where and when supply overwhelms demand. The trendline shows trend. These often follow the same course, but whereas price can leave the trendline to some degree, it can't leave the S/D lines. If it does, they have to be redrawn. Otherwise, they serve no purpose.

 

Db

 

Thanks, i need to read-up on supply/demand lines, because for the last 4 months, I always thought everything was a trend line. I reading your preview where its explained.

[goodoboy 10]

So today ES price action broke out of the range (1392-1404), only to return back within range after struggling the pass the 8 hours to stay above HOD yesterday (1404).

 

IMO, although the overall trend is upwards, that sellers are taking advantage of any pop-ups and the longs was a bit challenging today although decent economic data dismorning. This suggest to me not be afraid to put my shorts on even though trend is upwards at the first sign of weakness like price action behaved today from the open.

 

Today, I can count about 2 shorts I missed today.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

So today ES price action broke out of the range (1392-1404), only to return back within range after struggling the pass the 8 hours to stay above HOD yesterday (1404).

 

IMO, although the overall trend is upwards, that sellers are taking advantage of any pop-ups and the longs was a bit challenging today although decent economic data dismorning. This suggest to me not be afraid to put my shorts on even though trend is upwards at the first sign of weakness like price action behaved today from the open.

 

Today, I can count about 2 shorts I missed today.

 

Before you become wedded to the ES, you might also look at the NQ: more movement, faster, more opportunities, cleaner.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

  goodoboy said:

 

Today, I can count about 2 shorts I missed today.

 

Here is just an example of short I missed. But, I wasn't paying attention, but these are types of setups I look for. However, I don't know what to call this type of setup. In the picture, there is supplyline connecting lower highs. Then there is an intersection where the supply line and the 1404 (resistance struggling to break all day), at that moment I would have traded short because price action run into encountered supply line and resistance.

 

What type of setup would this be called? Is this trading from price action reversal? I know its hindsight, but that is a good short IMO.

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Before you become wedded to the ES, you might also look at the NQ: more movement, faster, more opportunities, cleaner.

 

Db

 

Thank you, I never even once thought about NQ, although I see others on TL members mentioning the NQ. I just have just come so familiar with ES, I guess the price action is the same no matter the instrument, right? I think this will increase my learning too looking for setups on NQ. But I don't know what to call setups if I am just buying and selling off supports, resistance, supply, demand, and price retracement.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

Here is just an example of short I missed. But, I wasn't paying attention, but these are types of setups I look for. However, I don't know what to call this type of setup. In the picture, there is supplyline connecting lower highs. Then there is an intersection where the supply line and the 1404 (resistance struggling to break all day), at that moment I would have traded short because price action run into encountered supply line and resistance.

 

What type of setup would this be called? Is this trading from price action reversal? I know its hindsight, but that is a good short IMO.

 

Don't worry about what to call it. Only vendors like to hand out lots of cute names. This is simply a failure of price to hold above resistance.

 

Also, don't get carried away with the lines. Supply and demand lines do not provide S or R. Neither do trendlines. Their value lies in doing their job, i.e., telling you where the balance between demand and supply is changing and telling you where the trend is changing. That's it. You then have to decide what to do with that information.

 

S&R, however, are something else. These levels and points are created by price, not by the trader, whereas the trader has at least some latitude in where to draw S/D lines and trendlines, even to the extent of not drawing them at all. In this case, 1404 represents resistance because traders can't keep price above it and have failed to do so repeatedly. Otherwise, it wouldn't be resistance. Granted they tried for an entire day, but, ultimately, 1404 won. Therefore, you are shorting the failure of traders to keep price above 1404. This doesn't have much if anything to do with lines. It's interesting but probably coincidental that your short entry coincides with touching your trendline. Some people see this as a stronger signal than shorting a lower high, but since one can't predict the future, it's not something to wait for. An earlier and better entry is at 1010 or even 1035 on your chart, at around 1406 or 1405. If taken, then whatever happens with the waffling around 1404 doesn't really matter because you're already in.

 

So what you're shorting is failure and you're entering on the first retracement thereafter. You could just jump in anywhere, but you have no way of knowing when the failure will occur. It may make a series of higher highs and you get dragged along with it. Wait for the lower high, then enter inside the first retracement. You could wait for price to drop below 1404 and short the test of it, but there might not be one -- price might just plunge through, and there you are watching it fall way from you. So I suggest you forget about what to call it and just do it.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

Thank you, I never even once thought about NQ, although I see others on TL members mentioning the NQ. I just have just come so familiar with ES, I guess the price action is the same no matter the instrument, right? I think this will increase my learning too looking for setups on NQ. But I don't know what to call setups if I am just buying and selling off supports, resistance, supply, demand, and price retracement.

 

As long as trades of the instrument are governed by demand and supply, then they are all traded the same way. However, the price action itself may be very different. The ES can often seem like a '64 Lincoln Continental whereas the NQ is more like a Mazda Miata. Other instruments just lie there, comatose. Still others might ricochet around like an assault weapon on Auto. You have to decide what best suits your personality. But the ultimate objective is the same: to make money with as little risk as possible.

 

As for what to call the setups, again, it doesn't matter what you call them. If you like, read what other Wyckoff traders say when they talk about their trades. They're concerned about the process, not about what to call it.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Don't worry about what to call it. Only vendors like to hand out lots of cute names. This is simply a failure of price to hold above resistance.

 

So what you're shorting is failure and you're entering on the first retracement thereafter. You could just jump in anywhere, but you have no way of knowing when the failure will occur. It may make a series of higher highs and you get dragged along with it. Wait for the lower high, then enter inside the first retracement. You could wait for price to drop below 1404 and short the test of it, but there might not be one -- price might just plunge through, and there you are watching it fall way from you. So I suggest you forget about what to call it and just do it.

 

Db

 

Thanks Db

 

Good point and comments! I better focus on what I see and what to do the next time this comes. Its so easy to get caught up in all the hype and lose focus.

 

I attached a chart of entries I missed today. The red means short there on a retrace and green means long there on a retrace.

 

1. Long at 1404 after break of line A.

 

2. Short at 1406 (at about 11am) after break of line B. This is a good short of the day!

 

I would call line A supply, line B demand, and line C trendline (establishing the the trend/direction of price action at this moment.) Does that make sense?

 

Thanks,

[goodoboy 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

If you like, read what other Wyckoff traders say when they talk about their trades. They're concerned about the process, not about what to call it.

 

Db

 

Yes, I am still spending some time on the Wycoff introduction thread. Lots and lots of good info on the Wycoff thread.

 

Thanks,

[DbPhoenix 42]

  goodoboy said:

Thanks Db

 

Good point and comments! I better focus on what I see and what to do the next time this comes. Its so easy to get caught up in all the hype and lose focus.

 

I attached a chart of entries I missed today. The red means short there on a retrace and green means long there on a retrace.

 

1. Long at 1404 after break of line A.

 

2. Short at 1406 (at about 11am) after break of line B. This is a good short of the day!

 

I would call line A supply, line B demand, and line C trendline (establishing the the trend/direction of price action at this moment.) Does that make sense?

 

Thanks,

 

Last question first, yes. However, your long is too early. If you're going long on a retracement, that doesn't occur until five bars later, though I prefer to enter coming out of the RET, which would be one more bar. If this is followed, the short should also be one bar later. Make the market come to you.

 

Db

[joshdance 10]

  goodoboy said:

Here is just an example of short I missed. But, I wasn't paying attention, but these are types of setups I look for. However, I don't know what to call this type of setup. In the picture, there is supplyline connecting lower highs. Then there is an intersection where the supply line and the 1404 (resistance struggling to break all day), at that moment I would have traded short because price action run into encountered supply line and resistance.

 

What type of setup would this be called? Is this trading from price action reversal? I know its hindsight, but that is a good short IMO.

 

DB mentioned this, but I was thinking the same thing as I read your post: who cares what it's called? Call it the "goodoboy special" ... does not matter what you call it. No need to call it anything.

 

Meant to say congrats on a couple of good trades you posted recently.

 

It may not matter much to you at this point, but you are trading ES, but looking at the cash chart. And a free, not very good one either--free is okay, but the data just doesn't look right. Attached is a 5-second updated cash chart, and what it really should look like (I have not seen an update interval less than 5s for S&P). At some point you may find it helpful to see the actual ES data. It does look and behave differently (even if for nothing else that it updates more often than 5 seconds).

[TheNegotiator 13]

  DbPhoenix said:

Supply and demand lines do not provide S or R. Neither do trendlines.

 

I'm not sure whether I totally agree with this and I believe it's better put as "it depends". I think for the purposes of trying to teach someone a particular method, it's fair to say that you don't have to use x or y in a certain way.

[bakrob99 11]

  goodoboy said:

...But I don't know what to call setups if I am just buying and selling off supports, resistance, supply, demand, and price retracement.

 

Here is a chart that I drew what I call my WALL setups (as price action was unfolding, not just after the market had closed).

 

I am looking for repeated tests and a pop above (or drop below) so you get the pop before drop, or drop before pop. After they have been tested and retested these provide very good entries with small stops.

 

If you're not sure about them - then you can wait for confirmation but you'll miss the best price if you do.

 

Confirmation for me comes in the form of a negative delta on volume at price (or positive for a long).

 

Taking these entries in the direction of your trendline would have given you the opportunity for maximum profit on the short you missed.

 

 

 

I have mentioned these price patterns before and the key is that you need to gain practice drawing them as they unfold and watching the result. Do it for a month and you will then have a basis for making trade choices.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thought I'd post a chart on yesterday. The RTH open above the 5-day range motivated seller enough to intially retest the balance high area. When it attempted higher and didn't follow through, a new RTH low brought about a test of the balance VPOC which was rejected pretty quickly. Overnight, this low area of yesterday's overnight range has been explored some more. It will be interesting to see if when we open up we try to move higher or lower. A push up and out of the prior balance high (1403.25) and I suspect we could at least test yesterday's highs. If the rejection at 1397.25 fails to hold, we could roll over and at the very least test the prior balance low at 1392.00 and possibly beyond.

 

Here's the chart:-