Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[DionysusToast 10]

As I said, using support as the risk level was an example. One can determine the risk however one chooses. But the risk level in the market is more pertinent than a risk level manufactured in one's head.

 

Db

 

 

lol!!!

 

Can't argue with that!

 

That's gonna have me giggling for a good 10 mins I think...

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Why not try calculating R:R ratios like this:

 

(Stop*Probability of stop being hit)/(Target*Probability of target being hit)

 

BlueHorseshoe

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so NFP headline out at 163k vs 100k and last month 80k revised to 64k. There were various other considerations making the release potentially less positive but given the market seems to want to go up anyway, I don't think it'll be too difficult to move up further. Market as near as damn it tested the balance vpoc at 48.50 yesterday (49.25 low) and moved higher into close. My thinking right now is a test of the top of the ecb move is on the cards @83.00. Anything can happen though :missy:

[DionysusToast 10]

Why not try calculating R:R ratios like this:

 

(Stop*Probability of stop being hit)/(Target*Probability of target being hit)

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

Tell you what - go back to post 4996 and help me out applying the formula to it....

[bakrob99 11]

Sizeable volume and aggressive buying suggests 1400 might be in the cards. Best long I could get was 1379.75. Let's see what's up.

[goodoboy 10]

Sizeable volume and aggressive buying suggests 1400 might be in the cards. Best long I could get was 1379.75. Let's see what's up.

 

Good trade. I was waiting for 1376-1377 area to come back and retest, but never did for me. It retested after the news, but did not pull trigger. Still watching

[bakrob99 11]

This type of price action and day type usually is a big drawdown to the MP responsive trader. "A" period high got taken out with a vengance and there's nothing but clear air above until 1387-1388.

 

Here's what I see.

 

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Tell you what - go back to post 4996 and help me out applying the formula to it....

 

I can't - I don't know the expected probability distribution associated with your entries. You should though

 

If your entry had no edge whatsoever (like a random entry) then you could assume a gaussian distribution around your entry price, so that with a two point stop and a two point target there would be a 50% chance of each order being elected, and the risk reward ratio would be as follows:

 

(2*0.5)/(2*0.5)=1/1

 

In other words, with a random entry, over a large enough sample size, and identical stop loss and profit target, then the R:R would be 1:1. I'm sure you can work out what happens from there as you start increasing/decreasing either the stop size or the profit target . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

[TheNegotiator 13]

 

Okay then, let's get back to the main focus of the thread then

 

So far we have gapped up strongly and tested above Monday's high. Didn't find any new buyers but the market did move strongly through the 5-day balance. So do we A- take that as a failure to find buyers and consider shorting, B- consider that given the move so far we might need to muster some more buying energy before breaking higher, or C- have done all the work we're going to for the week and just have to wait until Monday?

 

We're pretty near the weekly rth open at 79.25 so any move down and that could come into play esp later on in the day. New high already put in for the week. What will be of interest is how we trade over the next few hours relative to the main development in the 5-day balance.

 

[papageo 10]

I often lurk in this thread - I'll join in the discussion. Re-entered long at 1386.25.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1385.75, target (break 88 first) then I got 1398, target, as the next pivot (r2). stop at 1384.

 

Lets see what happen

[bakrob99 11]

long 1385, target (break 88 first) then I got 1398, target, as the next pivot (r2). stop at 1384.

 

Lets see what happen

 

If you;re long was at 10:55-11:00 AM time frame then there was no fill at 1385.00

 

If you're on SIM you should take market order entries or wait until your fill would have occurred. One of the key differences going from SIM to REAL is the good trades youmiss because there is no fill. Just a heads up.

 

My long entry was a little higher at the same time based on the pullback to the prior low area and minor support with positive Up volume coming in.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I often lurk in this thread - I'll join in the discussion. Re-entered long at 1386.25.

 

Glad you've decided to join in! What's your idea then? Still strong so keep pushing until it turns?

[Predictor 11]

My read tells me longs are high risk here. However, I don't like shorting when trend is this strong either... I believe the odds favor we are topping here though. Not sure where market is right now as don't have my software up but in general this is setting up excellent short.. for 1-2 days

[goodoboy 10]

If you;re long was at 10:55-11:00 AM time frame then there was no fill at 1385.00

 

If you're on SIM you should take market order entries or wait until your fill would have occurred. One of the key differences going from SIM to REAL is the good trades youmiss because there is no fill. Just a heads up.

 

My long entry was a little higher at the same time based on the pullback to the prior low area and minor support with positive Up volume coming in.

 

Sorry about that, I just corrected it up there on the original message

[papageo 10]

Glad you've decided to join in! What's your idea then? Still strong so keep pushing until it turns?

 

Thanks. I've been watching the reaction off the prior high to see what kind of down movement we'd see. The slow, methodical crawl of prices slowly higher is leading me to believe we might have another grinding up leg.

 

Full disclosure, these trades are on a live account, but I am very new to trading and hope people take my analysis with a heaping bowl of salt.

 

I'll post a brief introduction in the appropriate thread outlining my methodology.

[TheNegotiator 13]

My read tells me longs are high risk here. However, I don't like shorting when trend is this strong either... I believe the odds favor we are topping here though. Not sure where market is right now as don't have my software up but in general this is setting up excellent short.. for 1-2 days

 

What is your read? I think there's a good chance either way right now. We've gapped up strongly but not following through much other than slightly extending above balance area. Given it's Friday, we could sit here for the next few hours then either break down hard or if there are no real signs of sellers attempting to take control, we could certainly squeeze into the end of the week. One thing that should be noted is that if this is still in balance (short term balance covers the last 5 days), wouldn't responsive sellers have stepped in a little more already considering the location? I'm not say this will happen or that won't, just putting out some thoughts.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks. I've been watching the reaction off the prior high to see what kind of down movement we'd see. The slow, methodical crawl of prices slowly higher is leading me to believe we might have another grinding up leg.

 

Full disclosure, these trades are on a live account, but I am very new to trading and hope people take my analysis with a heaping bowl of salt.

 

People should take what ANYONE says with a barrow full of salt!

 

I'll post a brief introduction in the appropriate thread outlining my methodology.

 

Looking forward to it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

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[TheNegotiator 13]

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plus there's that volume at mid 84.00.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

 

Okay then, let's get back to the main focus of the thread then

 

Sorry, obviously Risk:Reward ratios aren't really relevant to daytrading the e-mini futures, despite the discussion amongst thread regulars . . .

 

That's it now - I'm taking my bat and ball home!!!

 

BlueHorseshoe

[TheNegotiator 13]

Sorry, obviously Risk:Reward ratios aren't really relevant to daytrading the e-mini futures, despite the discussion amongst thread regulars . . .

 

That's it now - I'm taking my bat and ball home!!!

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

During the market hours, it's better to talk as much as possible about what's actually going on and ideas etc.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to discuss ideas about risk:reward, trade management, or anything else, but maybe it's more appropriate to look at after the close

 

If it's about trades you're in or have just taken though, that's all good.

[goodoboy 10]

 

Okay then, let's get back to the main focus of the thread then

 

So far we have gapped up strongly and tested above Monday's high. Didn't find any new buyers but the market did move strongly through the 5-day balance. So do we A- take that as a failure to find buyers and consider shorting, B- consider that given the move so far we might need to muster some more buying energy before breaking higher, or C- have done all the work we're going to for the week and just have to wait until Monday?

 

We're pretty near the weekly rth open at 79.25 so any move down and that could come into play esp later on in the day. New high already put in for the week. What will be of interest is how we trade over the next few hours relative to the main development in the 5-day balance.

 

 

That is some good analysis. Thanks for the chart. Will reading Mind Over Market help me think like this and follow Volume Profile? That chart helps me.

 

IMO I think price touch 1400 atleast once.

[TheNegotiator 13]

That is some good analysis. Thanks for the chart. Will reading Mind Over Market help me think like this and follow Volume Profile? That chart helps me.

 

IMO I think price touch 1400 atleast once.

 

Possibly. It's a good place to start imho. I would then read "Markets in Profile". If you follow the thread aswell, you'll start to get a better idea of auctions. It is just one approach though and what is most important is how you incorporate your trade management and psychology into your trading method.

 

Are you still in that same trade as you were earlier btw?

[papageo 10]

Update on my previous trade: I took half off at 1389.25 and am letting the other half ride until around 1394. I feel my trade management is the weakest part of my trading approach, and I am currently working on scaling into/out of trades instead of holding all-in/all-out.

 

Honestly, I took the first half off the table solely because I began to fear losing my gains.Taking half off and moving my stop to my entry point is my compromise to myself.