Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

  Predictor said:
Looks like we're headed up... my platform is down today. So I'll make a call.. was bearish coming in today. We might get a small rally this morning and then sell off late evening.. I don't think we can hold new highs but I think we will at least try.

 

why ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  bakrob99 said:
I see some strong convergence towards 1372-1375. Downside 1350 but I am expecting higher. Will wait and see what happens 5minutes into the open.

 

 

Now that I have a minute I'll post the chart which was leaning me toward the 72-73 areas.

 

(Other than the obvious very shallow pullback from the impulse wave up yesterday)

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29962&stc=1&d=1342623043

 

Here's the price action 90 minutes later

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29963&stc=1&d=1342623164

2012-07-18_0954_ES_10K_SLIDING_MEDIAN_LINE_PROJECTION_and_TGT_HIT.thumb.png.323e6f0f1cf4c736b25ac1f86ab8d1ba.png

2012-07-18_0928_ES_30M_Dtgt_at_ML_Upper.png.ebea11c5fb98770aa69d5fb2157519bf.png

2012-07-18_1052_ES_30M_Dtgt_at_ML_Upper_90minutes_later.png.b884be2f96a83c852dec15f10254fafd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  bakrob99 said:
Now that I have a minute I'll post the chart which was leaning me toward the 72-73 areas.

 

(Other than the obvious very shallow pullback from the impulse wave up yesterday)

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29962&stc=1&d=1342623043

 

Here's the price action 90 minutes later

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29963&stc=1&d=1342623164

 

Thanks and I agree. There are two back to back bull flags that develop over the last three days. It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  goodoboy said:
... It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

 

What was the risk?

 

Rather than say it's risky - (I think) what you're really saying is ... "I don't know if this is going to work". Well, you NEVER know if a setup is going to work.

 

Assuming you use a stop for your entry ... you know the risk. If the reward is hit and large enough to warrant the known risk - then pulling the trigger should not be a concern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  bakrob99 said:
What was the risk?

 

Rather than say it's risky - (I think) what you're really saying is ... "I don't know if this is going to work". Well, you NEVER know if a setup is going to work.

 

Assuming you use a stop for your entry ... you know the risk. If the reward is hit and large enough to warrant the known risk - then pulling the trigger should not be a concern.

 

Thanks you are right. My risk was only 3.5 pt stop loss, right below the 200ema (15 min chart). You are right, I should have been thinking of the reward cause my risk was small. I will note that. my risk would only been 3.5pts but my reward could have been 8 pt atleast provided the HOD was broken. Then on to 1373 as we discussed.

 

Very good point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  goodoboy said:
Thanks and I agree. There are two back to back bull flags that develop over the last three days. It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

 

FYI, the testimony read to the house (today) is usually identical to the testimony read to the senate (yesterday). In other words, nothing new to be learned from his prepared statement. And Bernanke is very careful with his words, so a 2nd consecutive day of q&a is unlikely to unearth anything really that the market would find interesting.

 

You obviously give some measure of significance to the daily pivot (I assume (H+L+C)/3), and the 200MA--just wondering, why?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  joshdance said:
FYI, the testimony read to the house (today) is usually identical to the testimony read to the senate (yesterday). In other words, nothing new to be learned from his prepared statement. And Bernanke is very careful with his words, so a 2nd consecutive day of q&a is unlikely to unearth anything really that the market would find interesting.

 

You obviously give some measure of significance to the daily pivot (I assume (H+L+C)/3), and the 200MA--just wondering, why?

 

Thanks and good point.

 

The support I was watching this morning was the pivot point, the 38.2% retrace from yesterday LOD to HOD. Plus since last night es had pulled back, but not below pivot point. but i didn't think of the measure move on the bull flag and didn't buy.

 

See the picture.

5aa7111bb634d_es15min18july.thumb.jpg.57416599c6405ad9e31db3e2fea76219.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  goodoboy said:
Thanks and good point.

 

The support I was watching this morning was the pivot point, the 38.2% retrace from yesterday LOD to HOD. Plus since last night es had pulled back, but not below pivot point. but i didn't think of the measure move on the bull flag and didn't buy.

 

See the picture.

 

Cool -- you mentioned the pivot and MA. Sometimes people put things on their chart and place significance and trade using it without ever really seeing evidence from the market that supports their choice. If you use them and you benefit as a result, awesome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm out... really heavy selling came in. This could run more but again just a scalp. I noticed really heavy buying burst come in just before the market tanked. They weren't able to drive higher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got to 1370.50 so for me the target was helpful holding on to longs. The top came in with selling and any buying since has not raised prices.

 

Now back to VWAP but the sellers have the upper hand right now. Not sure if we'll make a new high today.

 

If VWAP holds - then maybe will. But I doubt it.

 

We had 3 pushes up and that often marks the end of the bullish period. Now we've corrected ab-cd correction and price going sideways.

 

The next breakout of this range up or down will determine the rest of the day's trend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just exited scalp long.. was hairy that for a moment... very heavy limit order resistance.. when that limit order resistance lifts (if price is able) then market moves... often on low volume.

 

I closely watch the MAE and MFE in my trades...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Predictor said:
I closely watch the MAE and MFE in my trades...

 

So do I. Long at 65.25 off VWAP bounce. Now not sure if we're going to sell off or try to rally. Sitting on hands

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That sell off from the high down to the VWAP was a classic.

 

Pullback to 50-61%, sell to 1.618 ext at VWAP and bounce hard.

 

With all the talk about algos and buy-sell pgms etc. It's nice when these moves repeat the normal expected behaviour.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  bakrob99 said:
That sell off from the high down to the VWAP was a classic.

 

Pullback to 50-61%, sell to 1.618 ext at VWAP and bounce hard.

 

With all the talk about algos and buy-sell pgms etc. It's nice when these moves repeat the normal expected behaviour.

 

Good comment, I will look into the VWAP study and add to my chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here you can see the market still working to meet its median line Upper Parallel target projected yesterday pre-open. The 1373 target has just been hit - but the projection shows that 1376.25 area (and higher) are feasible.

 

Here's the updated chart.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29985&stc=1&d=1342693058

 

If you haven't used median lines - or not found them useful - then you should check out Tim Morge's most recent webinars.

2012-07-18_1052_ES_30M_Dtgt_at_ML_Upper_NEXT_MORNING.png.543a9d49d5f6dce0b6fc4844074d1ab2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting thing to note is in spite of the strong start, there was no follow through in the afternoon and also close was below 70 and the low vol/singles zone. It looks like we might get a test of that again today but remember there are figures out at 10am

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29987&stc=1&d=1342704631

2012-07-19.thumb.jpg.849c4533ad45c7b1404b1186549a827b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've hit my profit target today and done for the day.. actually at the garage getting car checked out. The weak jobs is driving the market now but the housing is expected to be good.

 

I closely track not just the MAE/MFE for my trades but for other traders too...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  goodoboy said:
Thanks, is it because 1367.25 is LOD. I bought at 1371, but broke even after news.

 

1367.25 is both the Globex Open and the Prev Day Close : Long 1366.25 and 1367.25 target is 1368.75

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Ronin said:
1367.25 is both the Globex Open and the Prev Day Close : Long 1366.25 and 1367.25 target is 1368.75

 

Simply buying or selling possible levels based on short term price markers doesn't necessarily constitute a "low risk" point of entry. It has to be in context with what the market has done and its behaviour around the price in question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.