Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looks like we're headed up... my platform is down today. So I'll make a call.. was bearish coming in today. We might get a small rally this morning and then sell off late evening.. I don't think we can hold new highs but I think we will at least try.

 

why ?

[bakrob99 11]

I see some strong convergence towards 1372-1375. Downside 1350 but I am expecting higher. Will wait and see what happens 5minutes into the open.

 

 

Now that I have a minute I'll post the chart which was leaning me toward the 72-73 areas.

 

(Other than the obvious very shallow pullback from the impulse wave up yesterday)

 

 

 

Here's the price action 90 minutes later

 

[goodoboy 10]

Now that I have a minute I'll post the chart which was leaning me toward the 72-73 areas.

 

(Other than the obvious very shallow pullback from the impulse wave up yesterday)

 

 

 

Here's the price action 90 minutes later

 

 

Thanks and I agree. There are two back to back bull flags that develop over the last three days. It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

[bakrob99 11]

... It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

 

What was the risk?

 

Rather than say it's risky - (I think) what you're really saying is ... "I don't know if this is going to work". Well, you NEVER know if a setup is going to work.

 

Assuming you use a stop for your entry ... you know the risk. If the reward is hit and large enough to warrant the known risk - then pulling the trigger should not be a concern.

[goodoboy 10]

What was the risk?

 

Rather than say it's risky - (I think) what you're really saying is ... "I don't know if this is going to work". Well, you NEVER know if a setup is going to work.

 

Assuming you use a stop for your entry ... you know the risk. If the reward is hit and large enough to warrant the known risk - then pulling the trigger should not be a concern.

 

Thanks you are right. My risk was only 3.5 pt stop loss, right below the 200ema (15 min chart). You are right, I should have been thinking of the reward cause my risk was small. I will note that. my risk would only been 3.5pts but my reward could have been 8 pt atleast provided the HOD was broken. Then on to 1373 as we discussed.

 

Very good point.

[joshdance 10]

Thanks and I agree. There are two back to back bull flags that develop over the last three days. It was a bit risky pulling the trigger long dis morning at the pivot point knowing Ben Bernanke would be talking soon. I kind of regret it now!

 

FYI, the testimony read to the house (today) is usually identical to the testimony read to the senate (yesterday). In other words, nothing new to be learned from his prepared statement. And Bernanke is very careful with his words, so a 2nd consecutive day of q&a is unlikely to unearth anything really that the market would find interesting.

 

You obviously give some measure of significance to the daily pivot (I assume (H+L+C)/3), and the 200MA--just wondering, why?

[goodoboy 10]

FYI, the testimony read to the house (today) is usually identical to the testimony read to the senate (yesterday). In other words, nothing new to be learned from his prepared statement. And Bernanke is very careful with his words, so a 2nd consecutive day of q&a is unlikely to unearth anything really that the market would find interesting.

 

You obviously give some measure of significance to the daily pivot (I assume (H+L+C)/3), and the 200MA--just wondering, why?

 

Thanks and good point.

 

The support I was watching this morning was the pivot point, the 38.2% retrace from yesterday LOD to HOD. Plus since last night es had pulled back, but not below pivot point. but i didn't think of the measure move on the bull flag and didn't buy.

 

See the picture.

[joshdance 10]

Thanks and good point.

 

The support I was watching this morning was the pivot point, the 38.2% retrace from yesterday LOD to HOD. Plus since last night es had pulled back, but not below pivot point. but i didn't think of the measure move on the bull flag and didn't buy.

 

See the picture.

 

Cool -- you mentioned the pivot and MA. Sometimes people put things on their chart and place significance and trade using it without ever really seeing evidence from the market that supports their choice. If you use them and you benefit as a result, awesome.

[Predictor 11]

Currently short for a scalp... seeing what develops here

 

not going to push this one

[Predictor 11]

I'm out... really heavy selling came in. This could run more but again just a scalp. I noticed really heavy buying burst come in just before the market tanked. They weren't able to drive higher.

[bakrob99 11]

Got to 1370.50 so for me the target was helpful holding on to longs. The top came in with selling and any buying since has not raised prices.

 

Now back to VWAP but the sellers have the upper hand right now. Not sure if we'll make a new high today.

 

If VWAP holds - then maybe will. But I doubt it.

 

We had 3 pushes up and that often marks the end of the bullish period. Now we've corrected ab-cd correction and price going sideways.

 

The next breakout of this range up or down will determine the rest of the day's trend

[Predictor 11]

Just exited scalp long.. was hairy that for a moment... very heavy limit order resistance.. when that limit order resistance lifts (if price is able) then market moves... often on low volume.

 

I closely watch the MAE and MFE in my trades...

[bakrob99 11]

I closely watch the MAE and MFE in my trades...

 

So do I. Long at 65.25 off VWAP bounce. Now not sure if we're going to sell off or try to rally. Sitting on hands

[bakrob99 11]

That sell off from the high down to the VWAP was a classic.

 

Pullback to 50-61%, sell to 1.618 ext at VWAP and bounce hard.

 

With all the talk about algos and buy-sell pgms etc. It's nice when these moves repeat the normal expected behaviour.

[goodoboy 10]

That sell off from the high down to the VWAP was a classic.

 

Pullback to 50-61%, sell to 1.618 ext at VWAP and bounce hard.

 

With all the talk about algos and buy-sell pgms etc. It's nice when these moves repeat the normal expected behaviour.

 

Good comment, I will look into the VWAP study and add to my chart.

[bakrob99 11]

Here you can see the market still working to meet its median line Upper Parallel target projected yesterday pre-open. The 1373 target has just been hit - but the projection shows that 1376.25 area (and higher) are feasible.

 

Here's the updated chart.

 

 

If you haven't used median lines - or not found them useful - then you should check out Tim Morge's most recent webinars.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting thing to note is in spite of the strong start, there was no follow through in the afternoon and also close was below 70 and the low vol/singles zone. It looks like we might get a test of that again today but remember there are figures out at 10am

 

[Ronin 10]

1367.25 is a low risk buy

[TheNegotiator 13]

1367.25 is a low risk buy

 

For what reason ?

[Predictor 11]

I've hit my profit target today and done for the day.. actually at the garage getting car checked out. The weak jobs is driving the market now but the housing is expected to be good.

 

I closely track not just the MAE/MFE for my trades but for other traders too...

[goodoboy 10]

1367.25 is a low risk buy

 

Thanks, is it because 1367.25 is LOD. I bought at 1371, but broke even after news.

[Ronin 10]

Thanks, is it because 1367.25 is LOD. I bought at 1371, but broke even after news.

 

1367.25 is both the Globex Open and the Prev Day Close : Long 1366.25 and 1367.25 target is 1368.75

[TheNegotiator 13]

I closely track not just the MAE/MFE for my trades but for other traders too...

 

How exactly does tracking other traders' MAE/MFE help your trading? Or was that not your point?

[Ronin 10]

Buying 1.50 to 1.25 pts pullbacks now ...

[TheNegotiator 13]

1367.25 is both the Globex Open and the Prev Day Close : Long 1366.25 and 1367.25 target is 1368.75

 

Simply buying or selling possible levels based on short term price markers doesn't necessarily constitute a "low risk" point of entry. It has to be in context with what the market has done and its behaviour around the price in question.