Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[goodoboy 10]

 

From that level at 1343, by the way the volume gave a clue to the reversal, if you were keen enough to see it. 7

 

One which timeframe you was watching the volume at 1343? Thank you

[joshdance 10]

So , as soon as it opens at 1348.25 , it reverses to the down side , going against the GAP fill traders, hitting their stop loss orders and penetrating the Floor Pivot at 1345.75 , odviously looking for the Value Area Low at 1344.25. But below this level there was 1343.00 single print ( look at the market profile ) and LVN from Friday . So it was very logical that it would stop falling at that level.

 

That was a no brainer trade to go long at 1344.It was actually a Fourth but brief consolidation Zone that was missed by the previous illustration from another contributor to this forum.

 

Indeed, it was a no-brainer. In full disclosure, I did short a little earlier for a small loss but pulled the trigger long on the 43.75 / 44, and had a larger position than normal, due to a small enough stop because it looked like it would be a nice one. As far as reading it live, it was pretty clear from the DOM and tape, with good volume support visible, and the market was pretty clearly in auction/searching mode, not in impulsive selling mode. After the small failed buy, I waited for that last "up yours" test lower, and 43 was it. You saw on the tape the last few weak longs give up, feeling the pain or desire to be flat from Friday or whatever the case may be, and then it was free to move on up, where it really was trying to go in the first place.

 

As far as location, on the attached 30m chart you see your 'singles' in the form of a clear up bar from Friday, but as an added bonus, the box I drew midweek last week to represent the two-day balance (7/6 and 7/7) had its low as 42.75. So on 7/10 the market tried to break north of this balance but fails, and trades lower. After it made its way back to the top of it Friday, today it looked for buyers at the bottom. Pretty "textbook" if there is such a thing. And all day afterward, the market has been supported at 46, which was premarket lows. Nothing fancy, no fancy charts needed, just good ol' basic stuff. In fact, I took a (perhaps foolish) buy at the end of the day at 47, as the market could not break this 46 level even at the close. I dislike these globex trades but this one has worked out and I am flat again (and can now sleep well , though I must say it is my desire to improve my trading to be able to hold more trades overnight).

 

So, this was just another take on what you described Ronin. Thanks for your description, it's interesting how different types of analysis can yield similar ideas.

[joshdance 10]

I give you guys credit for trying to trade these narrow range days in es.

 

MM, today was beautiful action for day trading. Friday was obviously directional and more clearly long, but as far as actual day trading goes, today was better, in my book anyway. Friday it's "jump on" or be left behind, and those are my worst days. When the market balances and ranges, I do my best. Typically, the less the range, the better my P/L. It's one of the many things I am working on improving about my trading though; I'd like to benefit much more from unidirectional markets.

[Timo57 10]

Good morning traders!

 

Anyway, you can see that price is gradually being pressed into your support. Swing highs are lower, and lower, and lower. If price can break through and hold beneath your support, I could see it going to 1295 in the near term. It all depends on how long you want to hold the trade.

 

So, how do you plan to play this?

 

Also, this is hindsight, since I didn't have time to post it this morning, but the scenario I envisioned worked out nicely. Before the start of opening trading, I envision what I believe are the two or three most likely scenarios. My first scenario today was the Dow breaking support and auctioning down to the top of the unfilled gap, at 12359. That level also happens to be the 100% fib projection, so we have some nice confluence there.

 

This wasn't that easy to play, though. It looks simple here on the 405 min, but when we zoom down to the intraday data, you can see how there were a lot of fakeouts for a day trader. I put some numbers on the second chart. Match them up to these bullets.

 

1. This was when it seemed that my play would be fairly straightforward. We opened, auctioned up to the support from the larger chart, and immediately failed.

 

2. As you can see, however, it was not straightforward. Price made a low, then began to chop back up. This is when being a day player is nice, you can preserve some profit.

 

3. Market chops back up to support, tests, fails, tests again and fails, and auctions back towards the low. This is where it started to get tough. I was short, expecting at least a test of support, which it didn't quite give me.

 

4. Price accumulated and then broke out to the upside. At this point I began to turn bullish and looked to a gap fill. I played the retest of support and got chopped around a bit in the process. Market filled half the gap, at which point I noticed major amounts of selling in the order flow. Sellers came in in increasing numbers, absorbing the mo mo buying and gradually beating back the assault.

 

5. As prices began to turn back down, I was somewhat hesitant to jump back in short, but did so anyway with a trailing stop.

 

6. The market began to accelerate as it moved down, breaking that support yet again and auctioning to the low.

 

7. At that point, no significant buyers stepped in and the sellers pounded price through the lows. I didn't hold all the way to 12359, but I got most of it.

 

I'm not posting this to brag. I made money, but not as much as I could have or perhaps even should have because of the fakeouts and choppiness of the move. However, because I knew this was a distinct possibility for the day's action, I was able to keep my head through the chop, switch sides when it looked like I was wrong so I didn't get pounded too badly, and eventually have a nice payday.

 

I hope this helps some of the new people out there. This is what trading is. You have to be light on your feet. Creating a good plan is easy, as is making decent market calls. Trading those beliefs profitably is an entirely different story.

 

Great post for newbie like me. Especially appreciate the detailed thought processes. I'm just beginning my Futures trading education before I trade. Using paper money account, but it's less interesting. Wish I could treat it like the real deal.

[Ronin 10]

One which timeframe you was watching the volume at 1343? Thank you

 

10:05am est - 1 min TF - Volume : 12,116 - High : 1344.75 Low 1343 ( I B Low )

 

By the way 1042.75 was Floor Pivot S 1

Edited July 17, 2012 by Ronin

[TheNegotiator 13]

8:30am numbers all pretty much as expected. Industrial production due at 9:15am and NAHB housing at 10am. Earnings pretty much all a bit better so far with GS a notable beat. All eyes are going to be on the Bernanke testamony - the speech which will have a text released for it at the time and the Q&A after.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Indeed, it was a no-brainer. In full disclosure, I did short a little earlier for a small loss but pulled the trigger long on the 43.75 / 44, and had a larger position than normal, due to a small enough stop because it looked like it would be a nice one. As far as reading it live, it was pretty clear from the DOM and tape, with good volume support visible, and the market was pretty clearly in auction/searching mode, not in impulsive selling mode. After the small failed buy, I waited for that last "up yours" test lower, and 43 was it. You saw on the tape the last few weak longs give up, feeling the pain or desire to be flat from Friday or whatever the case may be, and then it was free to move on up, where it really was trying to go in the first place.

 

As far as location, on the attached 30m chart you see your 'singles' in the form of a clear up bar from Friday, but as an added bonus, the box I drew midweek last week to represent the two-day balance (7/6 and 7/7) had its low as 42.75. So on 7/10 the market tried to break north of this balance but fails, and trades lower. After it made its way back to the top of it Friday, today it looked for buyers at the bottom. Pretty "textbook" if there is such a thing. And all day afterward, the market has been supported at 46, which was premarket lows. Nothing fancy, no fancy charts needed, just good ol' basic stuff. In fact, I took a (perhaps foolish) buy at the end of the day at 47, as the market could not break this 46 level even at the close. I dislike these globex trades but this one has worked out and I am flat again (and can now sleep well , though I must say it is my desire to improve my trading to be able to hold more trades overnight).

 

So, this was just another take on what you described Ronin. Thanks for your description, it's interesting how different types of analysis can yield similar ideas.

 

Nice description of what I agree was actually a pretty decent day. Two especially good trades which weren't too hard to get on were the short from 49.75 down to 43.25 and the reversal back to 49.75/52.00 gap close. Nice shaped balanced profile into Bernanke today, centred around those developments I mentioned pre-open yesterday. Glad it went well for you!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting open. Looked like a open-drive, but then size has come in at 55.75 absorbing the buying:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting open. Looked like a open-drive, but then size has come in at 55.75 absorbing the buying:-

 

 

and there you go ...

[Ronin 10]

1350 is a low risk buy - stop out , loss , trying to sell 1350

Edited July 17, 2012 by Ronin

[joshdance 10]

We will see, but I just positioned long at 50s-- market wants to be higher and this move down maybe to fill a few more long at a better price ahead of testimony. But he'd better say something concrete today, or this market could tank... enough with the "we have XYZ at our disposal" ... market wants action at this point, not words. If lower, which I hope not, 46s obviously, and if 43 does not support, back to 30s.

[TheNegotiator 13]

1350 is a low risk buy

 

I would say a 'worth the risk' long at 50.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Ah, oh well .....

[TheNegotiator 13]

If we make new lows from the 47's, there's 44.50 then possibly an important test of 40.25.

[Ronin 10]

1350 is a low risk buy - stop out , loss , trying to sell 1350

 

My data feed frozed, but the other one Zenfire is OK, and NO FILL - CQG not reliable this morning.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Above 49/52 I have 66 for dollar index. Just FYI.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Above 49/52 I have 66 for dollar index. Just FYI.

 

possibly 62.5 ..........

[Ronin 10]

My mistake was to trade in front of FED Speak but my risk was only one point, so life goes on..trading life

[joshdance 10]

My mistake was to trade in front of FED Speak but my risk was only one point, so life goes on..trading life

 

Ditto, and I must confess that I had a brief lapse of memory, and forgot (for shame) that Bernanke's testimony is released at 10am before he reads it. While it was a small risk, perhaps it would have been better to wait until just after 10am to see the market's reaction. Oh well, we trade and we learn.

[TheNegotiator 13]

My mistake was to trade in front of FED Speak but my risk was only one point, so life goes on..trading life

 

It's not something I normally do, but occasionally it's worthwhile. I took almost exactly the same trade basically as a punt on the fact that we'd moved lower already and anything positive from big ben would send us to the moon. Then, given the flag break and the fact that not especially bad comments had us tanking, I double reversed out at 49.50 with a short stop above 51 and a target of 40.25 area. Sometimes the best trades really test your resolve when they're reversing on you, but if there's sound logic backing them up it's worthwhile hanging on for just that little bit longer than you normally would.

Edited July 17, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[bakrob99 11]

Interestingly - the ES did NOT take out the 1356.50 high. Just tested and then rolled over into a gap play that picked up momentum when Bernanke did not indicate any easing policy. So the ES will sell off until he does. Might be quite a down move to follow. Couple of good shorts and now sitting on hands.

[TheNegotiator 13]

watching IB low/44.50 level for any sort of reaction if it retests.

[joshdance 10]

Leave it to Chuck Schumer to kiss Bernanke's ass and bring it back to politics , and kudos to Ben for doing an excellent job as he always does of remaining apolitical..

edit: and shame on Jim DeMint for jabbing back!

[bakrob99 11]

Just noticed that the HIGH of the recent Lowest Bar on the Daily chart, 1339.50 was just tested by 1 tick and found buyers. This is a normal market behaviour to test that support. So - could be the low of the day is in.

[TheNegotiator 13]

watching IB low/44.50 level for any sort of reaction if it retests.

 

Not a lot. Watching vpoc/vwap 46.25 and mid 48.00.