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Trading pretty reasonable so far today. Initial open-drive on open kinda turned into an open-reject-reverse in the same direction so I didn't think it was as strong as if it had carried on higher first before pulling back. However, the market actually ended up looking pretty strong when it was moving higher and looked like we could plough on up. It looks a little more likely that it was short covering now though, but time will tell. We could easily push higher given we've actually only had a 9.25 point range so far. above, 1330.25 would easily be within reach considering recent ranges, with 31.75/32.75 just beyond. Any decent move lower could easily see a gap close to 1316.00 and then close of 13.75/13.25 yesterday's vpoc/closing range low.

 

Any of you guys having any joy yet today?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29630&stc=1&d=1340813013

2012-06-27_2.thumb.jpg.65a0b292c345bfdc9e9082ccee634fc2.jpg

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I am still biased long ... but it struggling here. Need a breakout higher and run some stops to make those upside targets. EC's been better for me today.

 

Should say that 1331.75 is my upside target.

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most recent long was initiated at the IBH 1326.00 when the market broke above and pulled back to it. Makes me wonder why I didn't just hold onto the 1318.75 long off the opening for longer ? I will probably get chopped out of this recent long pos.But we'll see.

 

Major chop now ... but whaddya gonna do... ( "gotta be in it to win it" Randy Jackson)

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13:36 EDT ... right now market is at 50% pullback of last swing up and the 161.8 ext is exactly 1331.75. Cooincidence. Probably.

 

As I type this it is still going down and touching the 61.8% retracement. If there are buyers lurking out there ... then it's put up or shut up for buyers to move this thing higher.

 

Seems to be attracting more selling.

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You hear from the professional traders that common mistakes made by unsuccessful traders - or new traders - is that they get into the move too early - get chopped out of it only to see the market go in the direction they had expected.

 

Ever happen to me? How about ALL THE TIME (if I'm not super careful) !

 

So I encourage you to watch the 30 minute chart on each bar's close and be prepared to act around the time of these 30 minute closes. This observation which I have been noting for several months has become very much a part of my entry considerations.

 

And it has helped.

 

Want some Examples:

When was the high put in today ... around 12:30 EDT

 

Want another: When was the most recent swing low then rally started... 3PM EDT.

 

When was the swing low before that at 1321.25 put in and the rally started... around 11:30 AM EDT

 

When was the High tested and then the next sell off occur... around 10:30 AM EDT.

 

When did the rally off the news start .... it may have started around 9:55 AM but it took off after the news at 1000 AM EDT.

 

Timing is critical for me to stay in a move and not be turned off by being chopped out. I have a 30 second warning in advance of every 30 bar and I sit up and pay attention to changes that are occuring on those times.

 

Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

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Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

 

A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

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A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

 

The important thing to recognise is that there are key times at all and you should be aware that something could happen around those times. So it's good to point out. I do also keep an eye out for any change in activity around the 30&60 min mark as I do often notice a flurry of activity. It doesn't always change things, but it's often there and worth having at the back of your mind at the very least.

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Joshdance and Negotiator,

 

Exactly. I don't make a "trade" decision based on time analysis - but I situp and take notice AND if the 30minute chart has some change which I think is a significant change in behaviour then it's even more important.

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There are 2 measured move targets down at 1311.50 - 1312.50 range I expect to be going down at least this morning. There has been responsive buying at the lows and it looks like they are stepping in again .. but why are we down here again if the News pop was such a good deal? I think the 1325 high is key and if we don't take it out then look for lower prices.

 

Let's see what develops. I'm flat going into the open.

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GDP a little better, Initial Jobless Claims and PCE a little worse, Kansas City Manufacturing Activity to come at 10am.

 

Lots of news flow from Europe has seen a bit more activity in the overnight session so far than the last couple of overnight sessions. I think we could get some interesting action RTH and unless we get some ground breaking new info, I doubt we'll see fireworks. You never know though ACH!

 

Here's a chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29645&stc=1&d=1340890071

2012-06-28.thumb.jpg.93528587c0c0986d92be8a985576adc5.jpg

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OTD open so far (test was attempt of yesterdays low) for a break with the gap type move. We've hit the 27.2% extension on the low so far so I'd want to see it break that soon. If it does, the 100% ex is at 07.75 right in that important 07.25-08.50 zone. Otherwise they will likely try to close the gap. Probably need to be looking at the half gap ~ 21.75 too if it gets there.

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11:45 EDT I think that there is a very good chance the next target down is the 1303 lows.

 

Possibly. Not a great low there, although it did turn form the area I mentioned. Could be important here whether or not it manages to stay within the IB. We'll see.

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