Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Trading pretty reasonable so far today. Initial open-drive on open kinda turned into an open-reject-reverse in the same direction so I didn't think it was as strong as if it had carried on higher first before pulling back. However, the market actually ended up looking pretty strong when it was moving higher and looked like we could plough on up. It looks a little more likely that it was short covering now though, but time will tell. We could easily push higher given we've actually only had a 9.25 point range so far. above, 1330.25 would easily be within reach considering recent ranges, with 31.75/32.75 just beyond. Any decent move lower could easily see a gap close to 1316.00 and then close of 13.75/13.25 yesterday's vpoc/closing range low.

 

Any of you guys having any joy yet today?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29630&stc=1&d=1340813013

2012-06-27_2.thumb.jpg.65a0b292c345bfdc9e9082ccee634fc2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am still biased long ... but it struggling here. Need a breakout higher and run some stops to make those upside targets. EC's been better for me today.

 

Should say that 1331.75 is my upside target.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

most recent long was initiated at the IBH 1326.00 when the market broke above and pulled back to it. Makes me wonder why I didn't just hold onto the 1318.75 long off the opening for longer ? I will probably get chopped out of this recent long pos.But we'll see.

 

Major chop now ... but whaddya gonna do... ( "gotta be in it to win it" Randy Jackson)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13:36 EDT ... right now market is at 50% pullback of last swing up and the 161.8 ext is exactly 1331.75. Cooincidence. Probably.

 

As I type this it is still going down and touching the 61.8% retracement. If there are buyers lurking out there ... then it's put up or shut up for buyers to move this thing higher.

 

Seems to be attracting more selling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You hear from the professional traders that common mistakes made by unsuccessful traders - or new traders - is that they get into the move too early - get chopped out of it only to see the market go in the direction they had expected.

 

Ever happen to me? How about ALL THE TIME (if I'm not super careful) !

 

So I encourage you to watch the 30 minute chart on each bar's close and be prepared to act around the time of these 30 minute closes. This observation which I have been noting for several months has become very much a part of my entry considerations.

 

And it has helped.

 

Want some Examples:

When was the high put in today ... around 12:30 EDT

 

Want another: When was the most recent swing low then rally started... 3PM EDT.

 

When was the swing low before that at 1321.25 put in and the rally started... around 11:30 AM EDT

 

When was the High tested and then the next sell off occur... around 10:30 AM EDT.

 

When did the rally off the news start .... it may have started around 9:55 AM but it took off after the news at 1000 AM EDT.

 

Timing is critical for me to stay in a move and not be turned off by being chopped out. I have a 30 second warning in advance of every 30 bar and I sit up and pay attention to changes that are occuring on those times.

 

Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

 

A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

 

The important thing to recognise is that there are key times at all and you should be aware that something could happen around those times. So it's good to point out. I do also keep an eye out for any change in activity around the 30&60 min mark as I do often notice a flurry of activity. It doesn't always change things, but it's often there and worth having at the back of your mind at the very least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Joshdance and Negotiator,

 

Exactly. I don't make a "trade" decision based on time analysis - but I situp and take notice AND if the 30minute chart has some change which I think is a significant change in behaviour then it's even more important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are 2 measured move targets down at 1311.50 - 1312.50 range I expect to be going down at least this morning. There has been responsive buying at the lows and it looks like they are stepping in again .. but why are we down here again if the News pop was such a good deal? I think the 1325 high is key and if we don't take it out then look for lower prices.

 

Let's see what develops. I'm flat going into the open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GDP a little better, Initial Jobless Claims and PCE a little worse, Kansas City Manufacturing Activity to come at 10am.

 

Lots of news flow from Europe has seen a bit more activity in the overnight session so far than the last couple of overnight sessions. I think we could get some interesting action RTH and unless we get some ground breaking new info, I doubt we'll see fireworks. You never know though ACH!

 

Here's a chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29645&stc=1&d=1340890071

2012-06-28.thumb.jpg.93528587c0c0986d92be8a985576adc5.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OTD open so far (test was attempt of yesterdays low) for a break with the gap type move. We've hit the 27.2% extension on the low so far so I'd want to see it break that soon. If it does, the 100% ex is at 07.75 right in that important 07.25-08.50 zone. Otherwise they will likely try to close the gap. Probably need to be looking at the half gap ~ 21.75 too if it gets there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11:45 EDT I think that there is a very good chance the next target down is the 1303 lows.

 

Possibly. Not a great low there, although it did turn form the area I mentioned. Could be important here whether or not it manages to stay within the IB. We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • ADMA Adma Biologics stock, watch for a range breakout, target 26 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?ADMA
    • URI United Rentals stock, nice rally off 829 support area, watch for top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?URI
    • Date: 27th November 2024. S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up. Asia & European Sessions: Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%. Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions. President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces. FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026. RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks. Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth. Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Financial Markets Performance: The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459. The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut. Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire. Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • RBLX Roblox stock, pull back to 49.2 gap support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?RBLX
    • UHS Universal Health Services stock, nice rally off the 197 support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?UHS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.