Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Volume is a little light - but it's still early.

 

I think it looks pretty reasonable no? Or are you talking about 24hr volume total?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bear in mind we have New Home Sales in a few at 10am (and Dallas Fed at 10:30am)

[TheNegotiator 13]

That was just one of those trades for me. Given the OTD, I often look for a follow through move after the first move is over. Never too keen on it going back through the mid though as that portends to the possibility of the IB turning into an Open-Reject-Reverse type. Can happen. However, in this case, mid was at 12.00, level at 13.25 and the quick spike higher on the better than expected New Home Sales ( 7.6% exp 0.6%- prev 3.3% rev to -1.2%) gave a really good chance to enter a short. I did this at 12.25. I also like a quick reversal when a spike like that happens and as it wasn't really happening, I exited mostly at 11.00 just above a minor level I had. Oh well. One of those Monday morning trades. Almunia was talking too in fairness, so anything could have happened.

 

[bakrob99 11]

235K contracts in the first 30 minutes is a little less than usual for a trend day. Not bad though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

235K contracts in the first 30 minutes is a little less than usual for a trend day. Not bad though.

 

Do you base most of what you do on 24hr or RTH?

[bakrob99 11]

Do you base most of what you do on 24hr or RTH?

 

On major market news days like NFP, I consider the premarket volume. All other days I watch the RTH session for evidence of OTF traders taking positions.

[TheNegotiator 13]

On major market news days like NFP, I consider the premarket volume. All other days I watch the RTH session for evidence of OTF traders taking positions.

 

Okay, that's fair and similar to what I do. The reason I was asking was because you said before that today is a trend day. I know that pre-open we have moved down and so far RTH we have pushed lower, but I just wouldn't myself label it a trend day yet.

[bakrob99 11]

Okay, that's fair and similar to what I do. The reason I was asking was because you said before that today is a trend day. I know that pre-open we have moved down and so far RTH we have pushed lower, but I just wouldn't myself label it a trend day yet.

 

Earlier the better. For me it just means that I am unlikely to take long setups until my short setups fail. 4 Shorts so far and now taking a break. Market appears to want to rotate here and is back inside the IBL .

[TheNegotiator 13]

Earlier the better. For me it just means that I am unlikely to take long setups until my short setups fail. 4 Shorts so far and now taking a break. Market appears to want to rotate here and is back inside the IBL .

 

Fair enough. It's important to check yourself on fading that kind of market as it'll undo days worth of profits if you're not careful.

 

Inside IB and couldn't even get to the 27.2% IB extension. Stopped right at a level (1305.25) too. Not showing too much to the downside for now. Perhaps we need a better test higher before deciding which way. ACH

[bakrob99 11]

OK, make that 5 shorts now ... couldn't pass that one up. failure to find any buyers on the IBL and the inability to take out the last swing high suggests still lower to go. 1300 then 1298.75 then 1294 are all on my radar.

 

1303.50 is a key low here ... so let's see if it attracts the responsive buyers with some follow through. Somehow I doubt it will.

[bakrob99 11]

Some responsive buyers appear to like the 1303s.

 

This is the first decent long opportunity for me... (there was one before the 10:00 Housing news but I missed the fill)

 

[bakrob99 11]

I expect buyers to step back in at this test of lows 13:06 PM EDT

 

Update 13:26 I expect this to get to 1307 and if thru .. then VWAP at 1309.75.

Edited June 25, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

Well that didn't take too long. New High Ticks and we got thru the 1307 but found some profit taking. Let's see if the next push up can test the VWAP or 1311 prior high volume area.

 

1308.75 is resistance which may prove strong enough for a pullback.

[bakrob99 11]

First long off the bottom was at 1303.75, followed by another long at 3PM ish at 1305. Market is behaving exactly as expected. OMG !

 

As noted above, 1308.75 continues to be strong resistance. Still expecting another push up - or this push to continue. EC is not doing much now so it's all up to the ES.

[bakrob99 11]

update 15:25 EDT: 1310 hit and I'm out on the measured move (D-target).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Obviously, anything can and usually does happen and with consumer confidence due at 10am, the picture could look quite different by then. But, here are a few thoughts right now.

 

The market is out of short-term balance (last few days) but back within broader balance (last few weeks). The open showed initiative selling on an OTD therefore, but it could be argued it was just longer-term responsive too. It could also be said that the last 3 days have been long-liquidation to some extent given the prior move higher and the uncertainties we currently face. In spite of the OTD open, the market ended up with a balanced intraday profile indicating that 2-way trade was found with lower prices. Indeed, we re-entered a highly traded area and so this wasn't especially unexpected. Into close, there was heavy selling pressure which failed to break prices lower than seen earlier in the day. This means that selling pressure was being absorbed at least to some extent. Overnight has remained tight and slightly higher than the close, with volume quite light even if there is some time to go until RTH open. Looking at a 24hr chart, we have drifted up some so it could be that we are just moving back a little before breaking lower. 1298.25 wasn't quite hit yesterday although it was maybe a little too close to remain a good reversal point. It could still be though. It's also "Counter-trend Tuesday" and so given some encouragement, I think there could be some upside potential. With the 6/22-6/25 gap being attractive, with a skipped gap at 18.25 from 6/21, important low vol at 1321.00 and 6/22 VPOC at 1323.50 yet to be retested there are a few stepping stones for the market if it does decide to look upwards. Below 1293.00 there is a largish buying tail down to 1286.75 from 6/6 then a gap down to 1279.00 for any longs to be wary of.

 

[bakrob99 11]

ES 30 Minute volume is 86,000 contract less than yesterday's 30min. Market is still not attracting longer term players IMO yet. Daytraders in control.

[TheNegotiator 13]

ES 30 Minute volume is 86,000 contract less than yesterday's 30min. Market is still not attracting longer term players IMO yet. Daytraders in control.

 

Probably yes. Which is the stronger pull tho? Gap to 6.75 or 18.25? my guess is 6.75 as nearest is usually best.

[bakrob99 11]

I am watching for a strong rally if we get a gap fill. A bullish Gartley would be setting up there, and it is an area that attracted buyers before. Any strong rally could go to 1326 area and fill the left over gap up there. I would change my opinion if we got much below 1305

 

 

10:36 EDT update Taken a long at 1307.75 see if it runs. Might be early.

Edited June 26, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

Scratched the trade after it came back. Stupid thing was I had a setup to sell down to the gap but because I was long I didn't take it - or reverse (which I hate doing). Shows me not to try to "think" too much.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Scratched the trade after it came back. Stupid thing was I had a setup to sell down to the gap but because I was long I didn't take it - or reverse (which I hate doing). Shows me not to try to "think" too much.

 

Yeah it's pretty annoying when that kind of thing happens. Really says you should at least be lightening up probably.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Neutral day then, but where are we likely to close? Inside or outside the IB? Just missed Thurs close by a tick there on the high.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Squeeze on the shorts from Egan Jones Germany downgrade news to test 1321 or revert to mean and back somewhere towards vpoc at 11.50 and possibly 2-day vpoc at 1307?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Recap chart for yesterday:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday we broadly held Monday's range. We tested the low end of it and rejected fairly quickly. We then moved higher. The target was 1321.00 as it divides activity well and could be seen as a test before any further move lower or even a reversal back up towards recent highs. We also failed to test 1298.25 again. We're in that area still though and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a test quite soon if not today. Hey, we could end up with a 1321.00 high and a 1298.25 low today! You never know. There's lots of news flow potentially about and we have the EU summit tomorrow. Merkel and Hollande are going to speak at 2:30pm today I believe. We have the holiday next week closely followed by NFP's. Market could slow right down into that, but if there is business to be done before, then the rest of the week could still move. We also have 10am/10:30am releases of pending home sales and crude inventories which follow on from decent enough durables seen earlier.