Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

My point is .. had I had a level there (I did consider the opening tick a level) I would always wait for the market to tip its hand and then take the trade. This has the double benefit of getting you in the move (if it does happen) at the right time after it has tested you entry.

 

bakrob, this morning, when did the market tip its hand, in your opinion of things? (like, specifically what time)?

[TheNegotiator 13]

bakrob, this morning, when did the market tip its hand, in your opinion of things? (like, specifically what time)?

 

specifically, just after 10am.

[bakrob99 11]

bakrob, this morning, when did the market tip its hand, in your opinion of things? (like, specifically what time)?

 

At the close the the 9:35 5Minute Bar.

 

See my Chart. The Large VPOC at 1328.75 which was the opening tick price and the Strong Aggressive selling under it mean that any retrace back to the 1328's was a short... and once in it the rapid downmove suggested much lower prices.

 

More conservatively, and just as effectively you could have waited for the 30 Min bar to close and that was a short in roughly the same area.

 

[joshdance 10]

At the close the the 9:35 5Minute Bar.

 

See my Chart. The Large VPOC at 1328.75 which was the opening tick price and the Strong Aggressive selling under it mean that any retrace back to the 1328's was a short... and once in it the rapid downmove suggested much lower prices.

 

More conservatively, and just as effectively you could have waited for the 30 Min bar to close and that was a short in roughly the same area.

 

I sold just a bit later, just after 9:40, at 27.75, and then about a minute later at 28.25. However, shorting here, even with evidence of strong selling, is, in my humble opinion, an example of getting in early, before the market truly tipped its hand. We may all have things which we see as the market tipping its hand. For example, I may look for heavy volume in a short period of time. However, really those are more akin to clues ... I agree with N, that the market did not really tip its hand until it actually broke south. Until then, it may just as well have been bluffing. Just to be clear, I'm not saying it wasn't a good short off the open... just that when someone says the market has tipped its hand, I usually am looking for something in the price itself that gives a much more objective indication of its intention. Just my !

[bakrob99 11]

.... the market did not really tip its hand until it actually broke south. ...: !

 

 

Without wanting to get in semantics, I think "tip its hand" is what it did earlier at 935ish and then confirm was what it did after 10am...

 

Regardless, there were still some great places to short or re enter short on the way down.

 

My money management is to scalp trades that I take before 10AM and then hold the 10 oclock trade for as long as possible or until it hurts.

 

Using this scenario, there were a number of times to short and scalp while in the range between 935 and 1000 EDT, always selling near the high of the range in front of the opening tick.

 

Just a style. I am usually unable to hold onto trades taken between 9:35 - 9:55 as the market is choppy usually. Certainly on Mondays. Mondays I actually don't trade for the first 30 minutes or even longer.

[bakrob99 11]

Now we can get back to the business of filling the gap.

[bakrob99 11]

Filled 3:40 PM EDT

 

Possible more down side

[bakrob99 11]

1312.50 is my target and possible bounce (it's the measured move from the High to swing low duplicated from the swing high at 13:25 EDT)

 

That's it for me today

 

R

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone else 'hoping' to see 98.25 later?

[bakrob99 11]

I am expecting a gap fill ... then will see after that

 

Note: Once it got back up through VWAP the 98 area was off the table for me. There is very strong positive delta since 9:45 EDT... Measured move points to gap. Long from 1304.50

[TheNegotiator 13]

I am expecting a gap fill ... then will see after that

 

Looked that way after it failed to take the 1300's really. My feeling from yesterday was that old value is still in control. I think it's the 8.50's from the last balance vpoc, but also longer term there is the 1298.25. That's the level I would like to see trade a bit for a couple of days to see if we get a vpoc shift from 3/6/9. However, that doesn't mean we have to trade it today either (or even at all).

[bakrob99 11]

I use normally a 10K Volume chart for projecting moves and making entries in line with my delta charts. Today I decided to reduce the volume to 6K to compernsate for the fact that only 60% of the volume is going thru the U contract. This did really well for me today.... so I will increase the volume on my chart as the new contract gets more volume progessively.

 

 

And just as I post I see were at the gap or close enough for me (:-->)

[bakrob99 11]

Here is the progression as I saw it.

 

 

 

 

[bakrob99 11]

12:27 EDT Critical point here ... 1309.25 Either going to selloff after a lower high or put in a new high thru 1311 and 1314 - 1316 in sight...

 

Still Long biased

 

But that can change quickly

 

Update 12:29 1314 NVPOC is very attractive.

 

Update 12:31 through the highs Have another measured move target at 1314.25

[bakrob99 11]

This is what I am looking at:

 

 

7 MINUTES LATER

 

10 MINUTES LATER

[bakrob99 11]

1314 - 1316 area has provided resistance as expected. I am done for the week. This was a very good rollover for me. Usually I am not so happy with it...

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Bulls have it now ... and expecting higher rotations next week and then who knows?

 

As long as the volatility keeps up, I don't really care which way it goes.

 

R

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

I use normally a 10K Volume chart for projecting moves and making entries in line with my delta charts. Today I decided to reduce the volume to 6K to compernsate for the fact that only 60% of the volume is going thru the U contract. This did really well for me today.... so I will increase the volume on my chart as the new contract gets more volume progessively.

 

Hi Rob,

 

Just an idea . . . Could you not just create an indicator that references both contracts approaching rollover and then sums the volume from the two? Then your significant volume threshold could remain constant.

 

If you use TradeStation or an EL compatible platform and want me to create something like this then just let me know.

 

Hope that's helpful.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[bakrob99 11]

Hi Rob,

 

Just an idea . . . Could you not just create an indicator that references both contracts approaching rollover and then sums the volume from the two? Then your significant volume threshold could remain constant.

 

It's an interesting idea, and certainly possible but the rollover happens only 4 x per year so I'm not too concerned about it. But thanks for the suggestion. I'll keep it in mind.

 

R

[Nikko 10]

Been overseas, not much time to post. Anyway, tomorrow if no new market changing news comes out ( which I doubt ) I will be longing the lows. Who is feeling bullish for tomorrow?

 

We flew high through 29.50 which is major resistance in my view. If I can go a little further and speculate that this weeks reports should be positive ( which I do believe all will be from jobs, to retail sales, to overseas ), Japan and Europe are not going to slow US down. So tell me why to think otherwise...

 

Nikko

[Nikko 10]

To tell you the truth before I could not give a confident months view of the market, but I could even go as far as saying we will be making a run back to the 1400's within 15 trading days. I don't know all the upcoming reports and news seems to be promising either way the sooner we can knockout some highs from all of this optimistic scrutiny the sooner we can make a run back into the 800's, possibly if we don't see no governmental reform, 600's. There is a lot of uncertainty leading towards the end of the year with elections and congress.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nikko, what timeframe do you trade on? I'm looking at what you're saying and see quite a long-term picture. Not sure it's especially relavent to day trading, but feel free to post your ideas in Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion thread.

 

As far as what happens today, I couldn't guarantee we'll be "off to the races" so to speak. We opened Sunday higher and pushed on the 1341.25 level but been down from there ever since. Broken lower just to 1327.25 and not looking strong up here. It will be important to judge the market by its early trading and have multiple scenarios to trade. The suggestion is that we at the very least, need to test lower before deciding whether or not to take off to the up side. I think there's a decent chance we will, but I won't be blindly buying in this instance. Of course, this could be the test lower and we trend higher into open. In which case, my idea might be very different @09:30. Let's see. It's important to me to have a number of ideas and never get too attached to any of them. Usually when I do, that's when things start to go haywire. :doh:

[Nikko 10]

Yes that would belong in the " bigger picture ". Well as for today I'm wait if it hits 27.50 here soon I will be going long. 29-30 is holding up fairly well and I think we should see a run. Obviously waiting until 27.50 to long and or wait for a bigger correction before I long, but that seems like a nice long to me with an exit of around high 30's low 40's

[Nikko 10]

I say 27.50 because 25 to me is hard support which I doubt we will break and if we do break 25 I won't be so bullish lol

[Nikko 10]

I'm long @ 27.50 - Goal is high 30's ( maybe mid or maybe low 40's ) - Exit is 24.25

[Nikko 10]

I actually exited and re-entered - I doubled the contracts, really surprised, it is going to take maybe a few more points to alter my views...