Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a quick update chart:-

 

 

Couldn't really get going on way up and until last low 1295.75 we had been in a fairly tight downward selling channel. Fairly decent range already. That could mean either 1)we're going to back off selling for now 2)if the balance low (1289.75) is taken out we could end up having a really big down day. We are currently in balance, but balance becomes imbalanced before price breaks out of balance lol. Interestingly, Monday's high was 10.50 which is the same day the current balance low was made.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I suppose you're right. But if you do post support or resistance levels as seen through the lens of your particular contextual understanding of the market we will gain a deeper insight into the importance of MP as you see it. No trade calls, simply support and resistance in the now. Pretty please!!!;)

 

I'll have to think about how to do something. The problem is, you see stuff like this all over the internet and without knowing any background my levels are no better than any others on the net (good or bad ones). Unless I go into thorough reasoning each day as to why each and every level hold significance and how I would be expecting it to trade, then how do I show that? There is no quick and simple way I can see at the minute. Anyway.

[sdoma 10]

Here's a quick update chart:-

 

 

Couldn't really get going on way up and until last low 1295.75 we had been in a fairly tight downward selling channel. Fairly decent range already. That could mean either 1)we're going to back off selling for now 2)if the balance low (1289.75) is taken out we could end up having a really big down day. We are currently in balance, but balance becomes imbalanced before price breaks out of balance lol. Interestingly, Monday's high was 10.50 which is the same day the current balance low was made.

 

It turned out to be option 1 with a twist. We made new lows by a small amount, retested that low, and when no significant new selling was found, traded back into value/to the day's midpoint/VWAP/Whatever method one uses to identify mean reversion targets. It was a nice trade, and paid quickly if your location was good.

 

PS If you want, I'll show you how to use IRT to keep track of relative volume a different way that's pretty nifty.

Edited May 23, 2012 by sdoma

[sdoma 10]

I'll have to think about how to do something. The problem is, you see stuff like this all over the internet and without knowing any background my levels are no better than any others on the net (good or bad ones). Unless I go into thorough reasoning each day as to why each and every level hold significance and how I would be expecting it to trade, then how do I show that? There is no quick and simple way I can see at the minute. Anyway.

 

Not only that, but you have to take your eyes off the market to make these lengthy posts. That can break your concentration. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be able to. One thing you could do is, when you start to think about a trade, press record on a camtasia type program and just verbalize your thoughts and point things out on the chart. If you want to, you can also record the trade.

 

This is something I've mulled over to keep really detailed records. Not only would it be faster than writing stuff up and labeling charts, but there's no muddling of details due to hindsight. You can watch it later and use it to fuel your feedback loop.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good idea about camtasia. It'll have to wait for the minute though as I'm considering a reinstall of windows and still not certain which ssd to get().

 

PS If you want, I'll show you how to use IRT to keep track of relative volume a different way that's pretty nifty.

 

Just using Session Statistics right? Either way it'd be great if you could post how you track it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thought i'd post the completed session chart. No notes, just there to ponder...

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

So yesterday we thoroughly explored the singles areas from Monday and then shot up higher. Again, overnight we've tested lower and then pushed on up. The 26.50 Tuesday high was not good and is well within reach again coming into open. The thing is, we are still quite news driven and the market seems to have an itchy trigger finger right now. Great if you're trading well and take your profits when you should without being too greedy, but awful if you hang on thinking it'll carry on after a turn has already shown itself.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Any views out there on the markets so far or has everyone gone home for the holiday weekend already?!

[bakrob99 11]

One of my daily pre-open daily preparation is to record the Key Reference Areas which for me include: Settlement, yesterday's RTH High, Low Closing Highest Volume Price, VPOC and to determine whether there are any KRA's which have not been tested during the session. If they have not, I maintain them and carry them forward.

 

By doing this work you must notice that we have basically been closing at the same price for several days, and in this case my bias becomes to trade from the outside back into the settlement until the market breaks out of its range.

 

I must admit that I initially was more biased to the upside today but the best long setup didn't happen for me until later in the session when there was clear evidence of aggressive buying off the lows and this was expected to carry at a minimum to the settlement and if it gets thru, then higher.

 

So, my point is that by doing repetitive analysis of the prior day's trading, you can uncov er some useful observations which can help you to hold on to a position rather than take a quick profit.

 

Now we have closed ABOVE the prior settlement price so I am cautiously biased to the upside.

[joshdance 10]

which for me include: Settlement, yesterday's RTH High, Low Closing Highest Volume Price, VPOC and to determine whether there are any KRA's which have not been tested during the session. If they have not, I maintain them and carry them forward.

 

By doing this work you must notice that we have basically been closing at the same price for several days, and in this case my bias becomes to trade from the outside back into the settlement until the market breaks out of its range.

 

I must admit that I initially was more biased to the upside today but the best long setup didn't happen for me until later in the session when there was clear evidence of aggressive buying off the lows and this was expected to carry at a minimum to the settlement and if it gets thru, then higher.

 

Excellent post and thank you bakrob. In your first paragraph quoted above, I am not sure whether you are calling something a "Low Closing Highest Volume Price" or whether you mean "RTH High, Low, Close" -- can you clarify?

 

I plotted the closes, and good observation that in the last 7 days, two closes at 1322, two at 1316, and one in 14s-- 5 closes within 8 points of each other.

 

I was also looking for a long today in the afternoon, but I did not see the same "aggressive buying" off the lows that you refer to, unless you mean the move out of consolidation into 16s. At that point near the bottom, the market was simply coiling, and had a decent chance of down as well as up, though I was looking for up. The liquidity pulled on the spike up out of consolidation, shorts essentially giving way. One more spike down and failure at 08 and I was a buyer, but we didn't get it so I was not in the move up.

[bakrob99 11]

In your first paragraph quoted above, I am not sure whether you are calling something a "Low Closing Highest Volume Price" or whether you mean "RTH High, Low, Close" -- can you clarify?

 

YES. sorry for the confusion RTH High, RTH LOW, Highest Vol Price, VWAP close etc. is what I record.

 

 

I was also looking for a long today in the afternoon, but I did not see the same "aggressive buying" off the lows that you refer to...

 

 

I have posted a chart which shows on the white arrow my buy zone at a price 1310.25 after the string of strong buying shown at 14:50 with Bright green colors and the orange is the VPOC of that 5Min bar. With this volume supporting that (what I call) Buy Zone below it, any retrace to that area is a buy. The question is how far can we expect it to move which was the subject of my prior post.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for posting those charts bakrob. I would just point out that the white arrow is a little difficult to make out. Maybe if you could take a screen shot then annotate in paint or jing/snagit or even greenshot, then you could make the area stand out better. Thanks!

[clmacdougall 11]

YES. sorry for the confusion RTH High, RTH LOW, Highest Vol Price, VWAP close etc. is what I record.

 

 

 

 

 

I have posted a chart which shows on the white arrow my buy zone at a price 1310.25 after the string of strong buying shown at 14:50 with Bright green colors and the orange is the VPOC of that 5Min bar. With this volume supporting that (what I call) Buy Zone below it, any retrace to that area is a buy. The question is how far can we expect it to move which was the subject of my prior post.

 

Would I be correct in stating that you waited for a break above the VWAP on bullish volume and then for a retracement back into a previous support zone as your signal to buy? Then used your -1 standard deviation band as your stop and your +1 standard deviation band as your target?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay, so Friday before Memorial day and overnight we have little consensus on value. The profile shows this in that it's not well defined at all. People are talking about the possibility of risk aversion into long weekend as don't want to be exposed to Europe news prior to next week. Of course this is possible. I would say that I feel in this case, it's possible that we'll get a short squeeze/short covering rally too - or even as well as. I think the market moved lower very quickly and I also believe that many of these moves are happening by speculative traders rather than uber-sized funds etc. The market is pock-marked with poor highs and lows which are followed by sharp moves in the opposite direction. I think this illustrates my point.

 

So my idea today is anything goes and we could have more big moves.

 

Here's a quick chart to look at:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Forgot to remind anyone who is trading that there's Michigan(although final) @9:55am. This could definitely provide a move if it's out of line.

[TheNegotiator 13]

How's the week been for everyone? Finding it easy going or struggling?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, so far we have not alot going on. Low volume, low range and little real attempt to go anywhere. Probably people did most of their business yesterday. Could be a break and a move later on but who knows right? We're still news driven, so anything out of Europe could tip the balance quickly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a thought:-

 

 

IF we were to get any upward momentum and break higher, there is a really juicy target area of 1325.25-26.50 (Tuesday VPOC, Long term Low volume area, Tuesday High).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, in fairness it never actually rebroke 20 before turning back towards lows, so the push higher wasn't on. Not that it couldn't still be as the support @14's held. But again, that's only one possible scenario. We could also make new lows and see a bigger flush with momentum into close based on risk aversion over long weekend. I don't know what will happen, just got a few ideas for what could happen .

[TheNegotiator 13]

If it moves any lower, I have 11.75 then yesterday's low/balance midpoint @8.25, then balance vpoc 1305.75/high vol 04.75, then 01.25 and 1300.00.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well that's pretty much it for the week now. I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend!

[bakrob99 11]

Would I be correct in stating that you waited for a break above the VWAP on bullish volume and then for a retracement back into a previous support zone as your signal to buy? Then used your -1 standard deviation band as your stop and your +1 standard deviation band as your target?

 

No. I buy areas which I have shown here in green shades or sell areas that have red shades.

 

However, I take into account where the market is in relation to the VWAP and its standard deviations, and when aggressive buying occurs off a low and the market has roated from SD+2 to SD-1 I will take the trade back in with a traget of the VWAP.

 

It also help if price action is originating off one or more of the Key ref areas I track (see above post) is support.

 

My stop is below the swing low and usually is 6 ticks. My reward is variable and usually on a swing like this considerably more than the risk.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Morning! Hope everyone had a great weekend and you're all raring to go this week! I can't pretend to know what will happen and I'm looking at Friday potentially as a tasty one given the number of eco releases due. News is still the flavour of the day and things can turn around quickly. The last few days have been balanced though with that area now at 26 ish being the key boundary for the upside. I still have 35/36 area should we convincingly break through.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

For anyone who was interested in how I approach looking for price levels:-

 

Support and Resistance Levels and a Few Ways I Find Them

 

Please add your input to it if you get the chance!

Edited May 30, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Clearly the market is very news influenced right now. With the best TA in the world, you can still get stuffed when it moves this way. So stay disciplined and be patient if you do trade. We have Pending Home Sales at 10am and some Fed speakers later. Tomorrow and Friday there are alot of eco releases and I think this has gotta be the focus.

 

Yesterday's action I wasn't too keen on. We moved higher and broke out of balance before moving back into the balance below 1326.50 and developing. Then, we broke out of balance again and although closing on highs, we only broke the earlier high by 2 ticks. In a sense, if you were to splice the session, we'd have a "hanging man" type candlestick for the session after the initial balance was put in. I don't think this is good for the market and it could be interesting if we extend much below Tuesday's RTH low (1321.50). Anyway, just a few thoughts for anyone who's about.