Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hmm. So what do we reckon for today then? ES stopped at important level yesterday in RTH, but tested lower in the overnight session. We've seen a pretty decent turn back higher though and although there's nearly an hour before open, I suspect the move higher won't reverse hard. Don't know that for sure of course. Industrial production is released at 9:15 am ET following the good housing figures just released. Given that we have Fed minutes due to be released later in the session and ongoing European fun, would it be totally surprising to see balanced trade somewhere in the cyan highlighted development in my last chart at least until later on? I think not, although of course the open should give us a better idea of that when we get there. We could of course drive one way or the other and if this happens it will be very important to see the level of support or resistance offered by the development extremes (25.25-46.75) and whether if at all they can hold it there.

[karoshiman 10]

Also, we have the FOMC Minutes release in the afternoon. Could mean that it will happen not too much until then...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Also, we have the FOMC Minutes release in the afternoon. Could mean that it will happen not too much until then...

 

Indeed there are those fomc mins later

[TheNegotiator 13]

So has anyone else got any theories for the day and what's happened so far?

[MightyMouse 12]

At this point it seems to be coiling up nicely for a move. Remove your bias and trade it either way as a break out. I would guess a fake out and then a move in the opposite direction. To trade it you have to take a lose or two trying to get on.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Opex Friday today and first day listing of another evil empire. If you want to watch the stock (FB) but don't have a stock feed, go to freestockcharts.com and do as picture below:-

 

 

Big move lower yesterday and test lower again in the overnight session, before turning back up- probably in anticipation of fb, g8, short risk and whatever else. It really doesn't matter to me too much but those are possible reasons. Option expiration with the current backdrop of Euromess etc., could be a little spicy -or much of the business could have been completed already. We'll have to see.

 

Anyway, I'm looking at whether or not we stay below 25.25 or break back above. Acceptance of the highlighted development and the 2012 RTH open/low might be convenient targets and are in the same zone as important low volume. Take a look:-

 

 

Be careful today, but when you choose to trade, I would suggest (not advise ) to be decisive and disciplined.

 

Good luck!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Broadly balanced (around the 1304.75 high volume) before 11am FB kick-off:-

 

 

Edit: FB quoting is going to start earlier(@10:45 I think)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Meh. FB delayed 5mins.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Meh. FB delayed 5mins.

 

Okay, now it's 11:15am. This is getting embarrassing!

[TheNegotiator 13]

FB is go !

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I reckon they're still having problems @nasdaq but that's just a guess.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I reckon they're still having problems @nasdaq but that's just a guess.

 

maybe not so much :shrug:

[TheNegotiator 13]

I know this is the e-minis thread, but out of interest is anyone here buying any fb?

[slick60 10]

Here is a snap updating a chart that I posted a month ago in post #3539. This correction is starting to get a little long in the tooth and ITD and MTD Delta cycle low points are due on average on the 22nd. If a turn is due these points may come early but generally not late to the average. If we record a low later in the week that will portend to a further move down. We are coming into support that I see and a retrace to the 1280.00 level that I have been looking to for the past month.

 

2012-05-19_0617 - slick60's library

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday I posted (in big picture thread) that an aggressive counter move should be something to be wary of:-

 

Although we are moving lower, due to the rapid change in prices, it's not unlikely at some point to see an aggressive test higher, so that is certainly something to be wary of. Remember, prices rarely move in a straight line from A to B.

 

That is what we got. I'm not saying that after this, we'll just turn around and continue the move down. Of course there's a chance of this just as there's a chance of a continued short squeeze/relief rally. That's why I have outlined some levels to look for above where we are currently trading. If we tip back into selling, I'll be watching for what happens at the 1304.75 level and whether or not we slip into Monday's singles.

 

Here's the chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just want to make a quick point about approach here while it's happening.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The 1325.25 level is important, but the manner of approach has me thinking we might break at some point. Had we a pretty strong open after an initial test lower had been completed. Past 19.50, the biggest counter move all the way up has been 2.25 pts (although we just got 2.50 as I am typing). The other point is that instead of "reaching" for the 25.25, we slowed down and pushed higher bit by bit, taking a little more ground each time and then not really doing anything significant on the move back. Of course, the move could be temporarily running out of steam and require a deeper counter-rotation to bring in more buyers. However, there has been no strong rejection of the area which has previously been a rejection zone. It was also where we tested on 5/17 before two big down days. Let's see. I'm not saying "do this" or "do that" but just be aware of the logic.

[TheNegotiator 13]

and of course for the 4 days prior to today, we've been in uni-directional, day tf trending mode.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So what I said about it breaking higher was thrown out of the window, at least for yesterday! The high was not a good one but we did end up dropping hard before recovering some into close. Actually, that was a pretty decent rejection of the low yet overnight we have slipped through it. Looking at the last 4-days to try to get an idea of "value" within the balance, there's not much to see. The main thing is there's not a strong concensus on value and the VPOC comes in near that 1304.75 at 1305.00. I think that the selloff through the open and back could be key to explore again today.

 

[clmacdougall 11]

So what I said about it breaking higher was thrown out of the window, at least for yesterday! The high was not a good one but we did end up dropping hard before recovering some into close. Actually, that was a pretty decent rejection of the low yet overnight we have slipped through it. Looking at the last 4-days to try to get an idea of "value" within the balance, there's not much to see. The main thing is there's not a strong concensus on value and the VPOC comes in near that 1304.75 at 1305.00. I think that the selloff through the open and back could be key to explore again today.

 

 

I wonder if you could simplify your commentary by noting where you would short and where you would go long in the "now". Thanks

[TheNegotiator 13]

I wonder if you could simplify your commentary by noting where you would short and where you would go long in the "now". Thanks

 

Not really, no. This isn't about saying "I will do this here". I outline areas I feel are particularly important to the current auction and part of my trading approach may be taking a trade in or around those areas if I see what I'm looking for. Other trades are purely based on intraday developments. Telling people where I am going to trade is not useful to them (unless they want to give me their money and have me trade for them(and no I don't do this)). Talk to me about possible trades and why you might take them and what you want to see and then we can explore together(that goes for anyone). The intent of the thread is to discuss the e-minis not to state what my personal trades will be.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, if anyone was wondering, 3.25 was where the singles from monday begin.

[clmacdougall 11]

Not really, no. This isn't about saying "I will do this here". I outline areas I feel are particularly important to the current auction and part of my trading approach may be taking a trade in or around those areas if I see what I'm looking for. Other trades are purely based on intraday developments. Telling people where I am going to trade is not useful to them (unless they want to give me their money and have me trade for them(and no I don't do this)). Talk to me about possible trades and why you might take them and what you want to see and then we can explore together(that goes for anyone). The intent of the thread is to discuss the e-minis not to state what my personal trades will be.

 

My hands have been slapped yet again by the great N!!! (rhymes):rofl: I see no harm in letting us know where you think rejection or acceptance of price via your context might be!

[TheNegotiator 13]

My hands have been slapped yet again by the great N!!! (rhymes):rofl: I see no harm in letting us know where you think rejection or acceptance of price via your context might be!

 

True. But then again I am wary of just posting a bunch of levels every day. Just because a price has been important before doesn't mean the market will reverse there again and if it doesn't, it also doesn't mean that it's no longer important. So I don't people who don't know how to use levels to see them and just trade them. I don't think that's especially constructive for anyone. If you said, "let's talk about why specific levels may or may not be important" that would be a different thing. Plus, you could always post what you feel to be useful and why...

[clmacdougall 11]

True. But then again I am wary of just posting a bunch of levels every day. Just because a price has been important before doesn't mean the market will reverse there again and if it doesn't, it also doesn't mean that it's no longer important. So I don't people who don't know how to use levels to see them and just trade them. I don't think that's especially constructive for anyone. If you said, "let's talk about why specific levels may or may not be important" that would be a different thing. Plus, you could always post what you feel to be useful and why...

 

I suppose you're right. But if you do post support or resistance levels as seen through the lens of your particular contextual understanding of the market we will gain a deeper insight into the importance of MP as you see it. No trade calls, simply support and resistance in the now. Pretty please!!!;)