Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Will stopout at 84.50, breakeven on the remainder. Finding buyers at the lows here but still unable to clear Friday's high. If it does, see no reason why it should not at least retest highs, possibly 92.50

 

Added 1 short @ 83.50, will stop out of all at 84.50

[joshdance 10]

Added 1 short @ 83.50, will stop out of all at 84.50

 

Flat at 84.50............

[joshdance 10]

So Fed collectively sees raising rates a little sooner. Big whooptie do.

[joshdance 10]

Dead here, see you guys later.

[joshdance 10]

I was signing off, but wanted to see if you guys are watching Bernanke. Great example of market buying solely on his comments, good stuff. "Remain entirely prepared" .. said it about 4 times... for further accomodation. Up goes the market... Targeting 88.50, then 92.00

 

Those were not prepared comments btw, those were impromptu and in response to a question. Would definitely want to have this pressco up if you're in the market.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I was signing off, but wanted to see if you guys are watching Bernanke. Great example of market buying solely on his comments, good stuff. "Remain entirely prepared" .. said it about 4 times... for further accomodation. Up goes the market... Targeting 88.50, then 92.00

 

Those were not prepared comments btw, those were impromptu and in response to a question. Would not want to not have this pressco up if I'm in the market.

 

Yeah we'll see. I have 92.50 but nothing is set in stone obviously. (saying it again as I'm typing). I would also be wary of them ploughing straight through too. So any positions would be closely watched.

[joshdance 10]

Yeah we'll see. I have 92.50 but nothing is set in stone obviously. (saying it again as I'm typing). I would also be wary of them ploughing straight through too. So any positions would be closely watched.

 

I tried a buy at 83 but stopped, then bought 81.75 so and scaled some here just now at 86.50. Hoping for a stronger push up, but that movement was all Bernanke, not always so clear but this time it was.

[joshdance 10]

I tried a buy at 83 but stopped, then bought 81.75 so and scaled some here just now at 86.50. Hoping for a stronger push up, but that movement was all Bernanke, not always so clear but this time it was.

 

Missed the long from 82 as I was stopped 82.50. Following the pattern here and shorted 87 even, scaled 1/3 at 85.00. If there is a real move down today, it will be now. Otherwise, plow on up IMO. Looking to scale 81.00, and will hold one. Will be out at 87, BE on the balance, as there's no real certainty here in this market now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Finally we test the NFP SOC and it happens @~8:30am BST. :doh:

 

[slick60 10]

Finally we test the NFP SOC and it happens @~8:30am BST. :doh:

 

 

Hi "N", just noticed that you live in PRIME TIME part of the world. You have it made for trading the currencies there.

Now that we have retraced to our objective I think it is very important to hold this high otherwise we go back and test near the May highs. This appears as an end of auction spike to me and now looking much lower as I mentioned the end of last week.

What do you look for now with your longer term picture? Do you have some prominent areas of high or low usage that you perceive as potential visual targets?

Thanks

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

Slick, this is my long term profile. Notice I chart based on RTH.

 

 

If we can't get above and hold the overnight high area, there is 65, 46.75 and ultimately 04.75 below. Above, I'd look to retest those highs and really 1429 before deciding if the area is to be accepted or rejected. If it's accepted then look to the low vol extreme @1465 next. But who really knows

[joshdance 10]

So far, market does not show a willingness to immediately break out of April balance. The test of the VPOC of the current month balance (82.75) has just failed to produce enough buyers to hold firmly though it may still provide support. The delineation of this upper portion of April balance is conveniently yesterday's RTH range, with the low at 80.

 

Plan for open today:

 

* If open above 80, buy if market shows support

* If open below 80, sell on a rejection of 80 or 82.50, preferably 80

* If open above 82.75, buy if market shows support

[CYP 10]

Slick, this is my long term profile. Notice I chart based on RTH.

 

N,

 

Thanks. For comparison, could you post the profile which includes after-hours data?

 

CYP

[TheNegotiator 13]

So far, market does not show a willingness to immediately break out of April balance. The test of the VPOC of the current month balance (82.75) has just failed to produce enough buyers to hold firmly though it may still provide support. The delineation of this upper portion of April balance is conveniently yesterday's RTH range, with the low at 80.

 

Plan for open today:

 

* If open above 80, buy if market shows support

* If open below 80, sell on a rejection of 80 or 82.50, preferably 80

* If open above 82.75, buy if market shows support

 

I think we will probably open around the 82.75. If we did, then we are at balance and yesterday's vpoc. This means same idea of value. The 80 area is interesting on the profile anyway and considering it's yesterday's low that makes it more important in my eyes. Althought the test of the NFP SOC was overnight, it is there nonetheless and the move away from it was clear. We could get strong buying on open but on the other hand with that test in place already (which preferably would have been rth) ES could be saying it's not ready to move into the upper balance. If this is the case, there's a good chance of a decent retracement lower considering we are at the top of the balance. Yesterday's lows would be the potential tipping point. ACH. Good luck.

[TheNegotiator 13]

N,

 

Thanks. For comparison, could you post the profile which includes after-hours data?

 

CYP

 

left is rth right is full globex session

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

One interesting thing here though is that after push higher and fall lower overnight, the vpoc sits at 83 again. Profit taking maybe? I want to see the open.

[joshdance 10]

Forgot to mention my sell scenario: if the market sees responsive selling at or slightly above yesterday's high and top of balance at 87/88, will look to sell that.

 

One of the weaker openings I recall from recent memory. Pending home sales at 10am.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Forgot to mention my sell scenario: if the market sees responsive selling at or slightly above yesterday's high and top of balance at 87/88, will look to sell that.

 

If it gets back that high I'd really be looking at an RTH test of 92.25 area.

 

This open btw is like some kind of super slow mo OTD! Gotta love the ES.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday's RTH close @87.50 might be interesting actually. Was also the last swing high pre-open ~ 8:04am

[joshdance 10]

If it gets back that high I'd really be looking at an RTH test of 92.25 area.

 

If it breaks above 88 with enough juice for 92.25, I'll be looking to buy 88s. 87/88 is kind of my upper pivot reference, 80 is my lower.

[joshdance 10]

I am looking to sell but not ready to pull the trigger. This is a weak, non-OTF push above the balance, or it appears that way anyway. 76% rel volume, weakening volume on the way up.

 

Also, have not seen a strong rejection yet, (or a rejection of any kind really), so the bulls have it so far. But I don't think they have it enough to go where they are trying to go.

[joshdance 10]

N, responsive selling in 87s a few mins ago, bids held (initiative buying). Not clear but bulls have upper hand... you agree?

 

So buying above y'day high was weak, but strongest selling push so far met with bids. Kind of unclear.

[TheNegotiator 13]

N, responsive selling in 87s a few mins ago, bids held (initiative buying). Not clear but bulls have upper hand... you agree?

 

So buying above y'day high was weak, but strongest selling push so far met with bids. Kind of unclear.

 

Sorry, got distracted there. I don't think anything has been especially clear so far. The one thing that you could say it that we are testing (and extending through) the top of the current balance high and yet the responsive selling thus far has not been strong. If the market thinks value is still lower, why is there not more selling competition at these prices? On the other hand, the balance VPOC is at 82.75 and so if this is value, we're not that far away from it - although this would assume tighter and higher balance is dominant.

 

Just now we've taken yesterday's highs out again which is positive for higher prices potentially.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just now we've taken yesterday's highs out again which is positive for higher prices potentially.

 

Not getting to current highs is not...

[joshdance 10]

Sorry, got distracted there. I don't think anything has been especially clear so far. The one thing that you could say it that we are testing (and extending through) the top of the current balance high and yet the responsive selling thus far has not been strong. If the market thinks value is still lower, why is there not more selling competition at these prices? On the other hand, the balance VPOC is at 82.75 and so if this is value, we're not that far away from it - although this would assume tighter and higher balance is dominant.

 

Just now we've taken yesterday's highs out again which is positive for higher prices potentially.

 

This market is F-d up today, clueless as to where it wants to go. So after news, we have:

 

(1) Weak initiative buying above yesterday's high (~ 10:05)

(2) Very strong selling at 10:30, but with buyers aggressively holding the bids at 85s

(3) Strong buying above yesterday's high (10:45)

 

Failure to follow through on all counts. I say the market is clueless, but in truth it's me who is clueless today. I accept that.. but the market has no real conviction. The volume at 10:30 really confuses me though... seems that buyers are willing to support higher, but 83% relative volume, pretty objectively if I may say so, means no real big players here so far.