Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

That is what I'm hoping for as well. Hope is what it is, because I'm in it with no control except to exit at a point where it no longer looks probable. 62, test of pre-open balance high, then 65, is what my premise is.

 

Well, the HOD held to the tick, I scaled at 60.50, and I am nearly taking heat as my entry price of 58 just barely was not touched. Stop is a tick below that, not feeling fuzzy but at least no real money is lost if it goes south here. 58.50 is a "ledge" area and so far it has supported, but not convincingly so yet.

[gosu 10]

Did you 'know' that before the open -- due to the gap? Or is this something you have discerned during the AM session? Is there a specific criteria (perhaps the large gap) that makes it more objective that this is the single caveat scenario?

 

I knew with the early congestion in the AM.

 

With regard to the gap, large overnight moves also extend into the AM after the cash open, so the "exceptional" day under the single caveat is not directly gap related. I say "not directly" because recent large overnight moves were "dominant" and the RTH session has been left with the nondom portion on the ST fractal. Thus, the recent cycling of dom/nondom on the AS is something to be aware of.

 

Check out 4/4 and 4/9. Both RTH sessions followed dom overnights. 4/9 falls under the single caveat, although it does not come under the "neither" category on a backtest.

Edited April 23, 2012 by gosu

[joshdance 10]

I knew with the early congestion in the AM.

 

Well I hope you "know wrong" this time, as I am still long :rofl:

 

Thanks for taking the time to write and answer my questions by the way.

[joshdance 10]

I realize gosu that I may have misunderstood your premise. So, to put it simply: at this point in the day, your AM congestion has materialized, and your premise that one extreme of the AM session will be tested during the midday has come to pass (61.25). Now, at this point what do you 'know'? We have congestion, and extreme being tested. What now? It's very interesting learning from others this way as the day unfolds, good forums we have here.

[gosu 10]

I realize gosu that I may have misunderstood your premise. So, to put it simply: at this point in the day, your AM congestion has materialized, and your premise that one extreme of the AM session will be tested during the midday has come to pass (61.25). Now, at this point what do you 'know'? We have congestion, and extreme being tested. What now? It's very interesting learning from others this way as the day unfolds, good forums we have here.

 

Yes, you are right, you have misunderstood what I've attempted to convey completely. LOL..

 

There is no "premise" that one extreme of the AM will be tested during midday, although that can and often happens. I am interested in how the AM unfolds, and by extension, the midday, and by further extension the PM. The AM unfolds by making an extreme that holds as one of the day's extremes and moving away from that extreme until congestion, usually midday. I know this is how the market "works." The single caveat says, there are exceptional days when I have to know not to think in my normal way. (On backtesting these days often but not always stand out as outliers.) That's all that I've said. The "premise" is something you've come up with.

 

I am not blaming you for misunderstanding. I am aware of my personal limitations and that of the medium we're using.

[joshdance 10]

I am interested in how the AM unfolds, and by extension, the midday, and by further extension the PM.

...

The "premise" is something you've come up with.

 

Ok, I get this; but as a trader, at some point "interest" must turn into a "premise" or, if you wish, a "trade idea," or a "tradeable hypothesis" or something along those lines. That was the angle I was coming from.

[joshdance 10]

68s anyone?

 

I'm looking for 66 first, key level on SPX (Thursday low and very long term point of interest) and a TL retest on ES.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so we hit the 63.75 naked vpoc I mentioned before and turned but failed at the open/vah. What does everyone reckon is up next? New highs, new lows, back to vpoc, don't care?

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

68s anyone?

 

I'm looking for 66 first, key level on SPX (Thursday low and very long term point of interest) and a TL retest on ES.

 

I think there's a lot before 68's if I'm honest. Plus, I kind of think there is more downside so anything much north of 66.50 could be acceptence. Not saying it won't & ACH. Also, if we take the 60's that'll be a few burnt breakout longs.

[TheNegotiator 13]

This was the other thing I meant to draw on the chart:-

 

 

Either way it looks like it's building for a break...

[TheNegotiator 13]

dollar index breaking down right now btw...

[gosu 10]

Ok, I get this; but as a trader, at some point "interest" must turn into a "premise" or, if you wish, a "trade idea," or a "tradeable hypothesis" or something along those lines. That was the angle I was coming from.

 

Of course we are both interested in the actual trading. Neither of us are paid for just thinking alone or even explaining to others what we think.

 

Our approaches are different. You look for individual trade ideas. I want to know the market's operating point. Once I know that, an entire set of trade ideas are present and it is just a matter of choice.

 

In any case, my use of the word "premise" was a short-hand reference to your specific midday "premise" or "trade idea" or "tradeable hypothesis." I do not object to the use of the word itself if that is what you mean.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bah. Neither break higher nor lower. Almost got a vpoc shift on close to 62.50 but it wasn't to be. Never mind. Have a good evening everyone and see you all tomorrow!

[joshdance 10]

Bah. Neither break higher nor lower. Almost got a vpoc shift on close to 62.50 but it wasn't to be. Never mind. Have a good evening everyone and see you all tomorrow!

 

I'm holding mine from 61 for 68 ... stop in place for BE, and got off 2 out of 3 at the high when it just wouldn't budge higher.... blah. Despite big gap down, bids held well overall today, negative delta on the day.

[roztom 10]

HI everyone: A "lovely" day today.. I did quite well with only 2 trades a short off the open and a long on a rotation bk to 58.00 area with exit @ NVPOC 63.25..

 

I did, however, drop the ball with my last scale on my short runner from this morning..against 60.25 CLVN. I was targeting CLVN 48.00 and did not exit when CHVN 53.50 was not breached... LOD 54.00. I still have to work on managing the runners... I knew CHVN was a key area but "thought" the LOD 4/10 @ 52.50 was easy target with CLVN 48.00 as exit area... NOT.. :crap:

 

but all in all a very nice day..

 

BTW: One of the issues I have is try to align my "runners" timeframe with a day timeframe while my scales are aligned with interday obstacles... The runner is my largest source of frustration.. since I can let a large open trade profit turn to poop... This is among a few other htings what I have been concentrating on...

[gosu 10]

gosu, if you're around-- given your way of modeling the market, your general thesis is that if the morning high of 61.25 is taken out, then that means the low of the day is already in at 54 -- is that correct?

 

Now that the RTH session is complete, we see that the day will not show up as an outlier on a backtest. In other words, the AM contains one of the extremes for the day.

 

I am not into hindsight analysis. Today's session is nondom and I know this not from looking back on the day after it's over. I knew it from the AM and I know that in a nondom session the possibility exists for a resumption. This is why the "premise" you took away from our exchange is not something I subscribe to.

 

To use my gobbledygoop, the PM BO was a short that reversed into a FBO which went to a BO of the upper limit of the AM range. As the session grew older and older, it became more and more apparent that a resumption would not occur. Nonetheless, for me the possibility of today being a "neither" on a backtest was on the table for most of the day.

 

The most recent analog to today is 4/9.

[joshdance 10]

I'm holding mine from 61 for 68 ... stop in place for BE, and got off 2 out of 3 at the high when it just wouldn't budge higher.... blah. Despite big gap down, bids held well overall today, negative delta on the day.

 

65.75 is good enough for me here, higher very likely but no need to risk giving away 5 in the money to get another 2, it's bumping on this trendline I mentioned earlier, was going to be my original point for a 2nd scale anyway.

[TheNegotiator 13]

BTW: One of the issues I have is try to align my "runners" timeframe with a day timeframe while my scales are aligned with interday obstacles... The runner is my largest source of frustration.. since I can let a large open trade profit turn to poop... This is among a few other htings what I have been concentrating on...

 

So how are you currently looking to exit your runner(s) Tom?

[roztom 10]

So how are you currently looking to exit your runner(s) Tom?

 

That is the rub.. I am trying to hold them for more of a daily target..yesterday was the lows 4/10 @1552.50 with the clvn @ 1348.00. - so a potential exit in that area... which we didn't achieve. The issue with that is then where have things changed to dump the runner..

 

I am looking at the structure of the Profile for some structure to lean on... to exit.. one of the problems I have is separating the runners management from my short term "hump & jump" (just made that up). The discipline to hold the runner through rotation is the challenge since when we rotate off a potential bottom, I don't know if it is just rotation or the beginning of a reversal...

 

Structurally to exit it might be rotation past mid-point, low of opening range, open, etc... In yesterdays case I was short from 60.25 rode it down to 54.00 and then exited runner B/E - that is what keeps me up at night..I need to find a better way to manage it... A fixed price of 50% or something is not the way to do it. It needs to be structural..

 

Otherwise I am ok..just a mission I am on...

 

Good trading today.. 70.50 clvn, 77.25 CHVn are going to be areas for short..depending on open/reports, etc.. subject to change..etc..CHVN 63.00 YCL 62.75 & GBX LOw all right there.. IBH 61.50... GRR

 

Catch you later..

Edited April 24, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hmm. Trading your runner, you have to ask yourself three questions.

 

1)Is there a good reason for holding a position? i.e. what is the directional conviction like.

 

2)What would actvity have to do for me to exit? i.e. early exit clauses.

 

3)What does a trend trader use to keep them in a position? i.e. heretical "indicators" such as trend lines, moving averages and all kinds of other stuff.

 

Trading a runner imho requires a very different approach to the methods we(Tom and I) use to trade usually. That's unless you just want to pick a number of counter rotation levels as tolerance and exit if one is breached.

[roztom 10]

Hmm. Trading your runner, you have to ask yourself three questions.

 

1)Is there a good reason for holding a position? i.e. what is the directional conviction like.

 

2)What would actvity have to do for me to exit? i.e. early exit clauses.

 

3)What does a trend trader use to keep them in a position? i.e. heretical "indicators" such as trend lines, moving averages and all kinds of other stuff.

 

Trading a runner imho requires a very different approach to the methods we(Tom and I) use to trade usually. That's unless you just want to pick a number of counter rotation levels as tolerance and exit if one is breached.

 

On point N. That is the conundrum.. it must be managed differently so big upside and large loss of open trade profit if it goes against... it is contray to my comfort zone but that is where the larger $ are made... Yesterday is a good example of a potential 48.50-49.00 target against a 54.00 ish exit... just something to try to figure out..the upside was really there but having it come bk to B/E was not the way to go...should have gotten at least 3 pts out of it..but that is not as important as recognizing when the structure is breaking down for the short... work in progress... TX

[TheNegotiator 13]

Do we accept yesterday's idea of value or do we reject it? Well, it looks like we are going to open in range possibly toward the upper end, but there's still time until open for that to change. There are some clear areas to watch to monitor for acceptance. 60/61, 65/66.50, 70.50 for capping a move higher, 56.75,54.00/52.50, 50.00, (46.75/48.00) below. Remember there is Apple earnings after RTH close and FOMC tomorrow. We have already had positive earnings from a variety of companies pre-open and various European bond auctions (Summary Of Europe's Sovereign Bond Auctions | ZeroHedge). Later we have consumer conf, new home sales, hpi, richmond fed.

 

My guess given all the data and barring any surprises, yesterday's value will be accepted today. But hey, I have a plan for this idea or if value is rejected as too high or low. That's the game though right?

 

Edited April 24, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[joshdance 10]

That is the rub.. I am trying to hold them for more of a daily target..

 

The main problem with holding a runner early on is that you essentially have to have a trend day for it to work out the way you want, and if it's not, you'll miss other opportunities. So not only might you not get your profit from it, but if it's a "normal" kind of day (not the MP "normal") then you are missing trading opportunities because you are psychologically vested to that last contract when normally you would trade opposite direction and get some other stuff if you were flat. Perhaps you could try essentially what I did yesterday with a good result -- hold a runner only which is already in profit and only at the close, if it seems a good play. When I do the runner thing through the close, there's no more trading, and if it goes, it goes, and if it doesn't, it doesn't, but either way I'm not missing other opportunities because I normally wouldn't be trading at that time.

 

edit: And meant to say, from what I see you talking about runners a lot, maybe you are expecting too much from the concept -- remember, a runner is a "long shot" and by the very definition of a runner, you are going to, more often than not, give up lots of profit. You can't have it both ways. Just as a trend follower always misses the start of a trend, and always, without exception, gives up at least 20-30% of the end of a trend, the runner will always have a tradeoff.

Edited April 24, 2012 by joshdance

[TheNegotiator 13]

On point N. That is the conundrum.. it must be managed differently so big upside and large loss of open trade profit if it goes against... it is contray to my comfort zone but that is where the larger $ are made... Yesterday is a good example of a potential 48.50-49.00 target against a 54.00 ish exit... just something to try to figure out..the upside was really there but having it come bk to B/E was not the way to go...should have gotten at least 3 pts out of it..but that is not as important as recognizing when the structure is breaking down for the short... work in progress... TX

 

Let me know how it goes. Maybe we should start a thread on it to discuss ideas?

[joshdance 10]

Market seems to be waiting for CC and new home sales data before committing.