Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

I've realized this week, that I have to be careful with posting my projections in the forum, as I tend to be "married" to these for prolonged periods if I do so - to my disadvantage of course. It's a personality kind of thing, I guess. It might be possible for some to do it and still be open to other outcomes. But I think I am not this kind of person.

 

This is a very good point. What I had to do was completely "let go" of any need to feel right about my projection or idea. It's just an idea. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, if I'm right, I'm right.

 

What's at risk is that others may feel I don't know what I'm talking about, and if I'm wrong enough, guess what: they're right! So, why try to hide behind a premise that I'm brilliant if I'm dead wrong? People will think what they will think. If I'm right a lot and my ideas are in tune with the market, I'll appear to be "smart," and if I'm wrong a lot and I'm out of sync with the market, I'll appear to be "dumb." Both are neither good nor bad, just what others think of us. And it truly matters not what others think of us if they are seeing the truth. Someone consistently wrong with ideas or calls is simply not in tune with the market. Someone consistently right is in tune with it.

 

An interesting case are those who can never be perceived as being wrong, so they only talk about how obvious things were, after they happen.

[slick60 10]

Wow!! Now that's how to do it!! That must give you so much context to work with. How do you synthesize so much into a trading decision? Is it powerful when it comes together as a single decision? Forgive my inquisitiveness I just think its great and am curious.

 

Hey fellow Canuck

You can see obviously that I have spent a lot of time in search of the "Holy Grail" and thinking that education was the way to go. For the most part, as a few of my posts show' I have done a lot of crystal balling thinking this was the way to go. WHY? Shit who knows what makes up a person. I do know one thing though when I can multitask these things together they certainly do produce a very confident signal. Alas I am getting too old to catch em like I used to and have recently found the Steidlmayer and Robin Mesch instruction on the "bell curve". I have tried to simplify my findings and applications in attempting to share what really works at present. The other stuff of years of use still do come in handy BUT do not marry yourself to one process as the markets are constantly changing electronically. It only takes money! Fill your account with OPM and follow these so called fund managers and it will be nothing but riches galore.

 

slick60

[joshdance 10]

guys, I am a buyer. At this premarket support I bought just now 77.25, and I'm sorry it just popped up too fast to post as it happened. scaled one at the high here of 79.25.

 

I am not expecting it to pop like it did yesterday but would be nice if it did.

[joshdance 10]

I am not expecting it to pop like it did yesterday but would be nice if it did.

 

Said another way, I would not be surprised if this ranges, but basically, given the activity overnight I am more bullish, so I was inclined to buy where they bought before, which was in the 76.50 to 77 area. I will see if this turns directional, but scale is done and stop is in place, so can only profit here either way. 83 may be a good scale, as would 85.

[clmacdougall 11]

I can see why they call you slick!! Thanks for the reply. A fellow Canadian too! That makes me think even more highlyof you ;) All the best eh!!!

[clmacdougall 11]

Said another way, I would not be surprised if this ranges, but basically, given the activity overnight I am more bullish, so I was inclined to buy where they bought before, which was in the 76.50 to 77 area. I will see if this turns directional, but scale is done and stop is in place, so can only profit here either way. 83 may be a good scale, as would 85.

 

total agreement should see it go to 80.75

[clmacdougall 11]

i think the market has disagreed with us Josh

[joshdance 10]

Well, I closed 2nd portion at 77.00, a tick below my entry, and still made a net +2, I'll take it! Now, must be careful as it seeks value.

[joshdance 10]

i think the market has disagreed with us Josh

 

lol yes indeed! But managing a trade from the perspective of profit allows us to let it figure things out and to test our hypothesis, a good thing. Attached is my chart showing the premise of the trade. Overnight R turned S, volume coming in at 77 (bottom pane), TICKs high (top pane). Not rocket science but it works, sometimes.

[joshdance 10]

Trying a buy one more time here at 77.75, small stop

[slick60 10]

I see us in an open auction on the 15 min profile. We are in a price controlled range [need I say that] and in equilibrium. We will hit disequilibrium at a new step 1 break, count on it. My guess is up and then an inverted "V" turn.

I am married to 83.75 at present and waiting to assess and sell there if it looks right.

 

slick60

[joshdance 10]

Trying a buy one more time here at 77.75, small stop

 

Got a scale, 79.25, so again, no risk here as stop is at 77.25

[clmacdougall 11]

This market is not doing what its told!! Bad Market........Bad Market...........Down Boy.........Down I said!!!!!! Its behaving like a bad dog I once knew!!

[joshdance 10]

Adding one here at 77.75, scale at 79.50 ish probably

[joshdance 10]

Adding one here at 77.75, scale at 79.50 ish probably

 

Oh well, I'm closing here for flat, and let it think a little more

 

EDIT: bought back 77.25, if it does not go now, 76 or lower is likely IMO.

[TheNegotiator 13]

lol yes indeed! But managing a trade from the perspective of profit allows us to let it figure things out and to test our hypothesis, a good thing. Attached is my chart showing the premise of the trade. Overnight R turned S, volume coming in at 77 (bottom pane), TICKs high (top pane). Not rocket science but it works, sometimes.

 

Josh are those volume stats part of your chart?

[joshdance 10]

Oh well, I'm closing here for flat, and let it think a little more

 

EDIT: bought back 77.25, if it does not go now, 76 or lower is likely IMO.

 

Okay, got 79, flat, have to leave as they are about to do some renovations and I can't be here for 3 hours due to chemicals Choppy but got a few points, see you all later, probably late today or weekend.

[slick60 10]

It does not appear that we are ready yet to go. We are getting long in the tooth with an 11 x 11 on my 15 min profile of step 3 development. I think the home run pitch will cross the plate at 78.50-75 to go over the fence north.

I actually think I am starting to learn from my work. We shall see.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

trying to sell 81.75 for a 5 ticker

 

slick

 

hit it twice, would not give it to me. Will wait now for 83.75

 

83.75 looks like it is setting up for me with an OB at that level

Edited April 20, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

trying to sell 81.75 for a 5 ticker

 

slick

 

hit it twice, would not give it to me. Will wait now for 83.75

 

83.75 looks like it is setting up for me with an OB at that level

 

I am watching to see if we will get an inside bar on this 15 minute time frame.

If so it will show that we may be moving into a step 2 of development of stopping activity and we are almost out of gas. Won't know until the 11th hour. We have been one time framing up for the last hour on the 15.

 

This is trying to cherry pick a top and not highly recommended.

 

Yesterday we put in a regular high with a lower high re-test. Today perhaps with the rule of alternation in play we may do an irregular high seeing a higher high at the 84.75 level/aka the .786 retrace of yesterday's move down.

Edited April 20, 2012 by slick60

[Nikko 10]

The only "ignorant" ideas are that you have to be "right" to make money and if you are "right" you will make money. That's just not reality for most traders. I have made lots of money on some days when I haven't got a f*&£*@g clue what was going on and had I not managed my trades well, I'd have lost a great amount of money. Then there are those frustrating days on which I know what is happening and yet I can't take full advantage due to the way the market is getting there.

 

Anyway, yesterday finished with a big range of 21 points. From the high, the idea of it getting into 50's was a little on the edge of possible expectations. Slick had mentioned the area it did get to as did I (previous balance vpoc/long term high volume). I think this was always going to be a big step to get beyond. Anyway, here is a chart showing ES RTH daily ranges from the past 500 days.

 

 

I believe you as it has happened to me as well, I too have made a lot of money guessing as well as had my fair share of flukes, but at the end of the day you can not beat the market so those flukes and guesses are irrelevant. From my experience it is best to build a strong trading program and not worry about the inevitable flukes which to be honest should not be a problem assuming you have mastered " money management " which is a must in any profitable trading, period.

 

The first step for new traders ( assuming you know terminology / TA / etc and are in the process of structuring your very own trading program ) is to just start off with the guidelines of more often then not. You will be surprised to what you will see as opposed to finding the " Holy Grail "

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

Edited April 20, 2012 by Nikko

[Nikko 10]

Well, we certainly are entitled to our own opinions!

 

slick60

 

You know, I'm sorry for degrading you like that. I don't even know you. To be real I just got mad that you thought I would be bullish after the reports.

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

[joshdance 10]

Back and house full of chemical fumes but safe by now.

 

This is the area I mentioned yesterday, and it's interesting to note how many times it's been responded to (earlier) and more recently today, served as an area of value. 78.50-79ish

[joshdance 10]

If 76s give way here, not sure I would want to buy until the next logical support-- overnight 72s.

 

EDIT: will say this though-- looking at yesterday's profile, 74.50 makes a good case for potential support, given how well 80 provided resistance this morning.. check out yesterday's profile.

Edited April 20, 2012 by joshdance

[roztom 10]

Hope you are all alive & well.. /I think mkt has unfinished bussiness at the 88.75 level and that we could test 92.25 - 75 area... Of course we could launch from there but If that becomes the extreme then this could be the top of a pennant on a bear flag... Could be...

 

Good hunting & good trading,