Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Nikko 10]

No news, opex tomorrow, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

Then you are missing out because it is 4-20 tomorrow :haha:

[slick60 10]

I mean my executions where on point but I thought today could have easily traded down to the 50's...

 

 

Nikko

 

Nikko

A couple of posts back you say we should have easily broken 1400.00 and now you say we could have easily gone down into the 50"s. You are confusing me.

 

Re:reading I think I may see what you said.

 

slick60

[Nikko 10]

Nikko

A couple of posts back you say we should have easily broken 1400.00 and now you say we could have easily gone down into the 50"s. You are confusing me.

 

slick60

 

Sorry to confuse you, I will post a trading journal soon and be up to date with execution etc. I was unaware that my posts were no longer moderated so they could show up in real-time. I just did not post during the day as it took a little while for my posts to be approved. Yesterday I posted a theory but as far as today all I said was this

 

Very few things will bring this market down and when they show believe me I'll be the first one to say SHORT this fukn index until she bottoms!!!! As of right now and for most likely the remainder of the summer, unless we see some of those trust fund babies in congress grow some balls and stop pretending that they can fix things when in all reality they can not and we need REFORM we should definitely continue the uptrend or stay in / near 1400's. I'm not a stupid politician though so I'll just sit back and play it by the day. This is more then trading for me, in essence the markets are an awesome never ending book that tell more then just a story, it is legit history in the making! So I don't care about a legacy I just want to be a part of the markets as it is so much more then TA, fundamentals and politics, I love this business! Don't go for the stereotypical thesis regarding traders guys, you should not be stressed or worried when making executions, you should be like a robotic fukn jet-i who will never break and has no emotion, NONE. Then you will win, forever! Stress will overcome your confidence and lead you to question yourself which will only ruin your trading plan which will make you unstable and you will lose as your plan clearly will then not be a plan but just more of a guesstimated formula of you don't even know. So yes don't stress because if you do stress you have no idea of what's going on so just relax and take notes.

 

Nikko

 

I was not talking about today's trading as at this time I was unaware that my posts did not need to be approved so I was speaking in general not my executions. You would have to be pretty ignorant to feel bullish today specifically especially after the news and bad reports. Anyway I did not really feel a part of real-time conversation as I did not know when my posts would show up.

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

[Nikko 10]

Nikko

A couple of posts back you say we should have easily broken 1400.00 and now you say we could have easily gone down into the 50"s. You are confusing me.

 

Re:reading I think I may see what you said.

 

slick60

 

I was talking about 1400 yesterday anyway, not today. I read a couple of your posts and feel you have a lot to work on before you can understand what I say or mean.

 

Nikko

[gosu 10]

* * *

 

I am looking to sell 71.50, or thereabouts, if it looks right.

 

I see no sell there. What are you using as your signal?

 

Got 71.50, half normal position as I do not want to get steamrolled -- only giving it 5 ticks or so.

 

Well, out for -5 ticks, this is why I put on half a position. Not much skin here.

 

Obviously something which was not reliable in this case!

 

In my gobbledygoop, the sequence was:

 

dom R2L (full traverse)--->nondom retrace (I am looking to sell 71.50, or thereabouts, if it looks right.)--->@RTL [TIME to short here] (I see no sell there. What are you using as your signal?)--->resumption R2L--->FTT [means do not be short, exit or reverse]--->retrace (nondom)--->BO (dom/nondom switch to long) (Got 71.50, half normal position as I do not want to get steamrolled -- only giving it 5 ticks or so.)--->going to p2--->@RTL of larger fractal--->BO of larger container RTL (Well, out for -5 ticks, this is why I put on half a position. Not much skin here.) and (Obviously something which was not reliable in this case! )--->p2 of new container--->retrace (nondom)--->p3, etc.

Edited April 19, 2012 by gosu

[clmacdougall 11]

In my gobbledygoop, the sequence was:

 

dom R2L (full traverse)--->nondom retrace (I am looking to sell 71.50, or thereabouts, if it looks right.)--->@RTL [TIME to short here] (I see no sell there. What are you using as your signal?)--->resumption R2L--->FTT [means do not be short, exit or reverse]--->retrace (nondom)--->BO (dom/nondom switch to long) (Got 71.50, half normal position as I do not want to get steamrolled -- only giving it 5 ticks or so.)--->going to p2--->@RTL of larger fractal--->BO of larger container RTL (Well, out for -5 ticks, this is why I put on half a position. Not much skin here.) and (Obviously something which was not reliable in this case! )--->p2 of new container--->retrace (nondom)--->p3, etc.

 

I would love to learn the Jack Hershey method of trading. I see it as an iterative way to study the markets. I find it difficult to follow a method I don't fully understand but I do admire it. You can tell it's the result of one mans market soul searching.

I personally think that the blend of a few of us who are trading from vastly differing methods could jointly produce great results as long as we would continue to differ in our approaches. Please call out some trades based on his methodology tomorrow I would love to see it in action.

Thanks Gosu!!

[gosu 10]

I would love to learn the Jack Hershey method of trading.

 

Cool. No one is stopping you. Carpe diem.

 

I see it as an iterative way to study the markets. I find it difficult to follow a method I don't fully understand but I do admire it. You can tell it's the result of one mans market soul searching.

 

That's a nice way of putting it.

 

I personally think that the blend of a few of us who are trading from vastly differing methods could jointly produce great results as long as we would continue to differ in our approaches.

 

Hmm, not sure about that. You have to think for yourself and rely on your own judgment and that's less likely if you allow yourself to be influenced by others. Trading is an individual effort.

 

Please call out some trades based on his methodology tomorrow I would love to see it in action.

Thanks Gosu!!

 

You are asking for a lot! LOL

 

Making calls is not my thing, but if we had access to a chatroom on this site where things could be posted faster, I would be open to "thinking out loud." Maybe that will happen in the future.

 

Cheers. :beer:

[joshdance 10]

You would have to be pretty ignorant to feel bullish today specifically especially after the news and bad reports.

 

The market was at 82.50 or thereabouts just before the news. After the news, the market sold off to high 74s. The market then traded all the way back up ABOVE 82.50, and breached yesterday's high, and was finding support above 82.50. A very good case can be made for the market accepting bad news, shrugging it off to trade above the point where it was prior to that bad news, and then continuing upward after a rotation. This did not happen, but it is hardly "ignorant" to take a bullish premise when the market trades below yesterday's low, back above it, and up to the prior day high, all well AFTER news.

 

Market participants have many motivations, and I'm not presuming to know them all, but it's pretty clear that if the market had really been bearish because of news, it would not have traded up to 86s as it did. I mean the 8:30 and 10am ET reports by the way, not "news" in general.

[Nikko 10]

The market was at 82.50 or thereabouts just before the news. After the news, the market sold off to high 74s. The market then traded all the way back up ABOVE 82.50, and breached yesterday's high, and was finding support above 82.50. A very good case can be made for the market accepting bad news, shrugging it off to trade above the point where it was prior to that bad news, and then continuing upward after a rotation. This did not happen, but it is hardly "ignorant" to take a bullish premise when the market trades below yesterday's low, back above it, and up to the prior day high, all well AFTER news.

 

Market participants have many motivations, and I'm not presuming to know them all, but it's pretty clear that if the market had really been bearish because of news, it would not have traded up to 86s as it did. I mean the 8:30 and 10am ET reports by the way, not "news" in general.

 

You could not be any more wrong and if you keep thinking to go against the obvious you are not going to make it far and yes it is in fact extremely ignorant for a veteran trader to go against the overall motion regarding the ES on 4/19/2012 and not believe the 50's could have easily been obtainable. The climb up was a market player, if you did not know I would like to educate you that there are teams of people much smarter then all of us looking to take all of our money and their competitions too. In which are as equally better then us, so if you have an overall outlook for the day and your usually right don't let a spike in the market deteriorate your plan, now if mid day they said " hey reports were wrong everyone is employed! " ok I agree, but not just from a simple spike in the market after the release of core evidence that only comes around once in awhile. So yes if your overall goal is to have a long-term profitably structured trading program and not some sissy system where you get scared of brief non corresponding spikes on the few days where the information we receive have so much meaning then yes, I would say if you keep that up you are going to be on the losing side much more often then not.

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

I personally think that the blend of a few of us who are trading from vastly differing methods could jointly produce great results as long as we would continue to differ in our approaches.

 

...

 

 

 

Hi clmac,

 

I agree with gosu on this one... too many cooks spoil the broth. It is good to see from time to time how others think about the market at the moment and where they see key support or resistance, but it could also distract a lot as you do not get the full picture in such thread. One might trade only for a few ticks target within seconds, the other is watching slightly bigger moves on the 5 min chart and another one is looking for the one big trend trade per day. They all could make a profit but their entries and exits are at different times and levels than yours.

 

Anyway, it is fun to hang around other guys who try to squeeze out some bucks from the same stuff you are looking at ... but then again you have to have the time for it... for instance, with my bread and butter business I have difficulties trying to post my trades in real time.

 

Regards,

karo

[karoshiman 10]

The market was at 82.50 or thereabouts just before the news. After the news, the market sold off to high 74s. The market then traded all the way back up ABOVE 82.50, and breached yesterday's high, and was finding support above 82.50. A very good case can be made for the market accepting bad news, shrugging it off to trade above the point where it was prior to that bad news, and then continuing upward after a rotation. This did not happen, but it is hardly "ignorant" to take a bullish premise when the market trades below yesterday's low, back above it, and up to the prior day high, all well AFTER news.

 

Market participants have many motivations, and I'm not presuming to know them all, but it's pretty clear that if the market had really been bearish because of news, it would not have traded up to 86s as it did. I mean the 8:30 and 10am ET reports by the way, not "news" in general.

 

 

Hi everyone,

 

I was yesterday also very bearish and expected a much bigger move downward, especially after the news. I was bearish before the news already and thought the weak news were the catalyst for the big move down. But I was surprised about the strength of the market here.

 

I think we can agree that after such long consolidation a big move must happen, be it up or down. After yesterday's less than expected down move, I have a bias to the upside now. But ACH... I expect the big move for today, although it is opex, or the beginning of next week...

 

Regards,

karo

[TheNegotiator 13]

You could not be any more wrong and if you keep thinking to go against the obvious you are not going to make it far and yes it is in fact extremely ignorant for a veteran trader to go against the overall motion regarding the ES on 4/19/2012 and not believe the 50's could have easily been obtainable. The climb up was a market player, if you did not know I would like to educate you that there are teams of people much smarter then all of us looking to take all of our money and their competitions too. In which are as equally better then us, so if you have an overall outlook for the day and your usually right don't let a spike in the market deteriorate your plan, now if mid day they said " hey reports were wrong everyone is employed! " ok I agree, but not just from a simple spike in the market after the release of core evidence that only comes around once in awhile. So yes if your overall goal is to have a long-term profitably structured trading program and not some sissy system where you get scared of brief non corresponding spikes on the few days where the information we receive have so much meaning then yes, I would say if you keep that up you are going to be on the losing side much more often then not.

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

 

The only "ignorant" ideas are that you have to be "right" to make money and if you are "right" you will make money. That's just not reality for most traders. I have made lots of money on some days when I haven't got a f*&£*@g clue what was going on and had I not managed my trades well, I'd have lost a great amount of money. Then there are those frustrating days on which I know what is happening and yet I can't take full advantage due to the way the market is getting there.

 

Anyway, yesterday finished with a big range of 21 points. From the high, the idea of it getting into 50's was a little on the edge of possible expectations. Slick had mentioned the area it did get to as did I (previous balance vpoc/long term high volume). I think this was always going to be a big step to get beyond. Anyway, here is a chart showing ES RTH daily ranges from the past 500 days.

 

[slick60 10]

I was talking about 1400 yesterday anyway, not today. I read a couple of your posts and feel you have a lot to work on before you can understand what I say or mean.

 

Nikko

 

Well, we certainly are entitled to our own opinions!

 

slick60

[clmacdougall 11]

Hi clmac,

 

I agree with gosu on this one... too many cooks spoil the broth. It is good to see from time to time how others think about the market at the moment and where they see key support or resistance, but it could also distract a lot as you do not get the full picture in such thread. One might trade only for a few ticks target within seconds, the other is watching slightly bigger moves on the 5 min chart and another one is looking for the one big trend trade per day. They all could make a profit but their entries and exits are at different times and levels than yours.

 

Anyway, it is fun to hang around other guys who try to squeeze out some bucks from the same stuff you are looking at ... but then again you have to have the time for it... for instance, with my bread and butter business I have difficulties trying to post my trades in real time.

 

Regards,

karo

 

Good point!! My thought is that serious students of the market can produce very similar calls for very differing reasons.

The Hershey follwer sees a "Failure To Traverse" (FTT) on the correct "Volume Gaussian" that allows him to make a judgement call on the market with a method he is deeply familiar with.

At the same time a "Profile Trader" sees the market trading into a "Low Volume Node" area with a good risk to reward opportunity if the area holds as resistance and trades back into acceptance or a "High Volume Node" area.

While a chartist watching price alone begins to see warning signs of price running out of steam while watching the movement of price over multiple time frames and subjecting his context to the nearest Resistance level.

Who is wrong?!!!!!!! No one! If their study is genuine all 3 are correct. And what may be lacking in the context one of them is choosing to use can at times be made up for by the other. As long as they all stay uniquely separated from each other in methodology they can jointly produce confidence in a call that together captures market sentiment.

Just a thought!!

[clmacdougall 11]

Going to stick my neck out here and call the market to hit 75.50 before it hits 78.75. Its now at 77.50.

Oops, stopped out!!

[slick60 10]

I follow these markets using market profile, delta cycles for timing, fibonacci for everybody moves, Elliott Wave for patterns, VSA for momentum divergence, Wyckoff for demand and supply to some extent and and and....

Yesterday we hit 65.50 very fast, too fast at the .786 retracement in pattern. Today is OPEX and now I look at pattern seeing a possible one more little pop up and then testing the 65.00 area again. I still feel we need to get to the 90-94.00 level before we take "the plunge" to a medium term auction low. I am seeing the 1280.00 area coming into play by the middle of May and then northward ho the wagons one more time.

This current range that we are in is appearing to me to be a platform of accumulation and distribution. Thems that has is passing off to those who think we are going north and taking the new sells for the 100 point shot down.

Just my thoughts for the day

 

slick60

 

add chart of 15 min profile

http://screencast.com/t/LUzWJ6ERcE

Edited April 20, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I like this split a little better out of the TPO mode. It then lets us balance this auction at 83.75 area.

 

2012-04-20_0844 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[clmacdougall 11]

I follow these markets using market profile, delta cycles for timing, fibonacci for everybody moves, Elliott Wave for patterns, VSA for momentum divergence, Wyckoff for demand and supply to some extent and and and....

Yesterday we hit 65.50 very fast, too fast at the .786 retracement in pattern. Today is OPEX and now I look at pattern seeing a possible one more little pop up and then testing the 65.00 area again. I still feel we need to get to the 90-94.00 level before we take "the plunge" to a medium term auction low. I am seeing the 1280.00 area coming into play by the middle of May and then northward ho the wagons one more time.

This current range that we are in is appearing to me to be a platform of accumulation and distribution. Thems that has is passing off to those who think we are going north and taking the new sells for the 100 point shot down.

Just my thoughts for the day

 

slick60

 

add chart of 15 min profile

2012-04-20_0836 - slick60's library

 

Wow!! Now that's how to do it!! That must give you so much context to work with. How do you synthesize so much into a trading decision? Is it powerful when it comes together as a single decision? Forgive my inquisitiveness I just think its great and am curious.

[karoshiman 10]

 

... My thought is that serious students of the market can produce very similar calls for very differing reasons.

 

...

 

Who is wrong?!!!!!!! No one! If their study is genuine all 3 are correct.

 

...

 

 

 

You are absolutely right!

 

At the beginning, when I've developed my own method, I was stunned... every time I've got a signal and entered, volume increased and price moved in my direction... I thought to myself "... man, some other guys are looking at the same thing I do!" ... but then I realized that others have different methodologies but just get the signals at the same time...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have one chart for you early on today. It's my RTH daily volume profile chart. The one thing I am drawn to is the shape of the current balance profile. There is no strong consensus of value.

 

[karoshiman 10]

The only "ignorant" ideas are that you have to be "right" to make money and if you are "right" you will make money. That's just not reality for most traders. I have made lots of money on some days when I haven't got a f*&£*@g clue what was going on and had I not managed my trades well, I'd have lost a great amount of money. Then there are those frustrating days on which I know what is happening and yet I can't take full advantage due to the way the market is getting there.

 

...

 

 

Good point N!

 

I've realized this week, that I have to be careful with posting my projections in the forum, as I tend to be "married" to these for prolonged periods if I do so - to my disadvantage of course. It's a personality kind of thing, I guess. It might be possible for some to do it and still be open to other outcomes. But I think I am not this kind of person.

 

I think, Josh mentioned it also. I actually don't care what the market is doing tomorrow. It is irrelevant for my trading decisions. I just look where we are NOW and whether one of my setups occurs. That's it...

[karoshiman 10]

I have one chart for you early on today. It's my RTH daily volume profile chart. The one thing I am drawn to is the shape of the current balance profile. There is no strong consensus of value.

 

 

 

I enjoy the neutrality of your posts, N!

 

You just observe and describe. The rest is up to the markets!

[joshdance 10]

So yes if your overall goal is to have a long-term profitably structured trading program and not some sissy system where you get scared of brief non corresponding spikes on the few days where the information we receive have so much meaning then yes, I would say if you keep that up you are going to be on the losing side much more often then not.

 

I look forward to hearing your specific, clear ideas about the market. Welcome to TL.

[slick60 10]

I have one chart for you early on today. It's my RTH daily volume profile chart. The one thing I am drawn to is the shape of the current balance profile. There is no strong consensus of value.

 

 

I like your chart "N"

It shows me a "P" balance pattern prior to the high and then the "it has to go up before it goes down" move to the highs. - Distribution taking place in MHO. And then now we have the inverted flag, symetrical triangle, range.... building cause they ain't got enough for the upcoming move lower.

Man I do seem fixated on a move lower at this time.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Good point N!

 

I've realized this week, that I have to be careful with posting my projections in the forum, as I tend to be "married" to these for prolonged periods if I do so - to my disadvantage of course. It's a personality kind of thing, I guess. It might be possible for some to do it and still be open to other outcomes. But I think I am not this kind of person.

 

I think, Josh mentioned it also. I actually don't care what the market is doing tomorrow. It is irrelevant for my trading decisions. I just look where we are NOW and whether one of my setups occurs. That's it...

 

Hi karo

Yeow, You be talking about me. I guess there are others somewhat like I.

I have to say that I am with you on this one again. I think we agreed yesterday about the 65 area pretty early.

And yeah, the Neg is the ombudsman. If I wasn't so old I would call him "Dad". lol

 

slick