Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

91 or 92 here could top out a rotation. Would want to see it above the 92's if view is to change.

 

I sold 92s based on this premise as well N, and took off half at 90.75, but really don't want to see it come back up above 92 at this point.. would love to see that 88 down below.

 

My trading has not been terrible but not very good today either, hard to post so many trades here, I will back off of that and you guys will have less of my crap to sift through.

[roztom 10]

I enjoy the crap..mixes well with my crap...

 

I am going to a meeting so I wish you all well & good trading...

 

EDIT: BTW, ripe for rotation .. if it does probably up to 94 area... IMHO, YMMV :helloooo:

Edited April 4, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

I closed the last 1/2 at 90.50 when it couldn't break the 90...

 

Based on this first chart, delta bouncing back very strongly. Perhaps this foray into high 80s was what is needed to motivate the buyers. The lower end of support is 86, but the midpoint of that consolidation area is basically 88.75. Often that's all the market needs, a test into the consolidation, not necessarily all the way to the bottom, which would actually be bearish IMO. For example, notice how Thursday 3/29 tested into the Thursday 3/22 consolidation about halfway as well. Could it be the same today?

[CYP 10]

I sold 92s based on this premise as well N, and took off half at 90.75, but really don't want to see it come back up above 92 at this point.. would love to see that 88 down below.

 

My trading has not been terrible but not very good today either, hard to post so many trades here, I will back off of that and you guys will have less of my crap to sift through.

 

Your thoughts are what make this thread more interesting than the others. As long as it doesn't interfere too much with your trading, keep posting. I definitely appreciate the banter and market insights. I find it hard to do both unless there's a nice lull in the action.

 

If we rotate up from here (90-91 level), that's great...but I was also thinking about the 87/88 levels based upon the past charts (which you graciously posted).

 

If I had more bullets, I'd add on, but right now I'm just waiting for either the rotation back up or until my mental SL is hit. Bought at 93...so my pain threshold is near its peak...

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

I sold 92s based on this premise as well N, and took off half at 90.75, but really don't want to see it come back up above 92 at this point.. would love to see that 88 down below.

 

My trading has not been terrible but not very good today either, hard to post so many trades here, I will back off of that and you guys will have less of my crap to sift through.

 

My trading has SUK'd today.. I gave up 3 good short trade locations on rotation against my position only to jump out either at the high of rotastion or 1 tic before it... :crap:

 

Why couldn't I be adding instead of bailing?

 

I had 89.00 as a target - but NNNOOOO it ticked it then 86.50...

 

:doh:

[CYP 10]

I enjoy the crap..mixes well with my crap...

 

I am going to a meeting so I wish you all well & good trading...

 

EDIT: BTW, ripe for rotation .. if it does probably up to 94 area... IMHO, YMMV :helloooo:

 

YMMV?? Years Make Me Valuable? Yaks Make Many Volumes? Help me out here Tom...

[roztom 10]

YMMV?? Years Make Me Valuable? Yaks Make Many Volumes? Help me out here Tom...

 

YMMV = Your Mileage May Vary...

 

See you guys later..

[joshdance 10]

Why couldn't I be adding instead of bailing?

 

Yeah I feel the same way, but to our credit the movement down this morning was not exactly, shall we say, exciting. Sure, it got down, but this was not a fierce selloff that strikes fear into the heart. Even if you had sold 95.25 after the first minor rotation up after the breakdown below the low (around 10:15am EDT), a good entry point, you only would have 4 points down to the low of 91, then endure a 3 point rotation up. This is how the market usually operates, yes, but still, with the stair step down movement and then a sharp up movement, adding when you're already afraid of losing what you have is easier said than done... not saying it's "right" or "good," but it is human nature and what we struggle with day in and out. Given the location of 86-91 being a buy area for many people, it's not an easy short to add to, even with all the fundamentals behind it.

[joshdance 10]

Your thoughts are what make this thread more interesting than the others. As long as it doesn't interfere too much with your trading, keep posting. I definitely appreciate the banter and market insights. I find it hard to do both unless there's a nice lull in the action.

 

If we rotate up from here (90-91 level), that's great...but I was also thinking about the 87/88 levels based upon the past charts (which you graciously posted).

 

If I had more bullets, I'd add on, but right now I'm just waiting for either the rotation back up or until my mental SL is hit. Bought at 93...so my pain threshold is near its peak...

 

CYP

 

Thank you for your kind words CYP.

 

I am considering a buy at 91 and then 90. Was looking at 92 but I am not quite convinced. Many traders are seeing a nice big bear flag here, quite prominent on the 5m, so maybe shorts will give it another go.

[joshdance 10]

I am considering a buy at 91 and then 90. Was looking at 92 but I am not quite convinced. Many traders are seeing a nice big bear flag here, quite prominent on the 5m, so maybe shorts will give it another go.

 

I dropped the ball on this one big time. I bought 90.75, and bought another 1 tick below the low. Then when it came up and traded inside the prior range, I closed at BE which was 89.75 I believe. I did not see the strong buying I had hoped to see, so I got out. 92.50 was my initial target which was just hit. Fear of losing already-secured profits is the culprit here, even though the premise was pretty good I think.

[steve46 12]

Hello

 

I took this entry as price tested the 3rd standard deviation band at 1388.50

 

For people interested in this, the reason I use this is that my "numbers" (my time based pivots) only go down to 1399.50....so if I want ot trade using my system I have to add on a way to deal with days that show bigger volatility. I do that by calculating volatility bands originating from a previous endpoint, I still use supply demand nodes, and finally I do not enter unless the tape looks good (I still need to have favorable conditions for entry)...

 

On the attached chart I would point out the following;

 

First, that initial touch of the 3rd standard deviation is often followed by an immediate reaction. traders who have experience with this method know that you can get a quick initiall profit by simply taking the number and using the tape for confirmation. You have to have faith in your ability to calc the numbers correctly, but if you do this provides quick breathing room

 

Second, in this market after the initial move you always get a "shake-out" or retracement to kick out or strand the amateurs...this is also a chance for experienced people to either get on board if you missed the initial entry or to recharge or add on to the position, I show both the initial entry and the "secondary" with green arrows

 

Finally, as with all trades what matters is your ability to manage the position once you are in...if you have a small account as so many of you do, the best method is to take a small piece at 2 points and hold the rest as long as possible

 

Best of luck to you all

Steve

[joshdance 10]

Giving this one more try at 90.75, first scale at 93.50, 2nd optimistic target of 97s

[joshdance 10]

Giving this one more try at 90.75, first scale at 93.50, 2nd optimistic target of 97s

 

Ok, settled for 93.00 instead of 93.50 on first scale. Stop to 90.25 on balance. Not crazy about volume here at 93 though it is relatively what I would normally expect.

[joshdance 10]

Giving this one more try at 90.75, first scale at 93.50, 2nd optimistic target of 97s

 

Closing at 94.50 on 2nd half for 4 points on this portion. It's been a good day and I need to relax my mind a bit, probably done, going outside for some fresh air.

[steve46 12]

I took my 5 point scale at 1394.50, holding the balance for ultimate target of 1399+ or a breakeven stopout. One or the other.

[gosu 10]

 

* * *

 

Does the overnight activity change that perspective, given that Monday's low has not only been broken, but is now providing resistance above? Or does that not count for you?

 

It takes into account ON activity, which is why I said the RTH could start with a BO of the daily pennant, as it did on the gap open. Had the RTH opened within yesterday's range (i.e., no BO to start), I would be anticipating a BO to occur during the session.

 

The point is I would be anticipating a BO before the day ends. The only other possibility would have been a further contraction of volatility on the daily and a continuation of the pennant. There would be telltale signs at the beginning of the day to signal that possibility, however.

 

As you point out, the pennant boundary is a key area even after the BO. You call it Monday's low now being resistance. I call that a static R, a horizontal. No doubt, that price is on the radar of a lot of players, as our institutional brother confirms in his post.

 

To summarize without using gobbledygoop: going into today there were only 2 possibilities for the market operating point to move to, with BO being the most likely.

[steve46 12]

A beautiful gift short this evening (early morning really) after the news about Spain's little problem selling bonds got out.....(Spain's 10 year at 5.75)

 

This one started at 1397 (obviously) when we saw two touches (if you scan to the left you see the "first" test of that area).

 

The ellipse encloses the algorithmic pattern that I like to use as entry signal. what you don't see is the DAX and the time & sales...

 

Anyway this was part of a larger retracement that we have been waiting for...I would like to see a test of 1386 and ultimately to 1378. We will see when the BOE comes out with their policy comment.

[steve46 12]

Posting this now before I run out of gas and fall asleep.

 

As we can see price retraced up to offer a very nice "recharge" entry point just below 92

 

On the lelft we see the larger time frame and the ellipse shows where the retrace opportunity occurred

 

On the right the shorter 1 min time frame and the algo pattern appears...

 

As expected we see the resumption of trend down to 86

 

Just as with yesterday's example, I am using volatiity bands to calc my profit target.

 

Based on those bands I believe we could see 78 and perhaps even 71 before the US session

 

Well I am off to get some sleep

 

 

Best of luck tomorrow folks

Steve

Edited April 5, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

A word of warning if you are going to upgrade to latest IRT release- I can't seem to move any of my horizontal lines anymore (and no they aren't showing as locked).

[TheNegotiator 13]

It could be interesting today ahead of the holiday. Long weekend and NFPs could mean there are books which need to be balanced. We'll see. Either way, it's the market which has been balanced more recently. Here's a chart to see that:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Another picture to show you the balance:-

 

 

The figures there are the total profile volume (21.14 million) and percentage volume difference above or below VPOC (3.7% of 21.14m above VPOC @1397.50 in this case).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting little bit of info is that if you felt there was a possibility of downward extension given that it looks like market is struggling more to upside and so at least is coming into balance, the longer term target of 1377.00 we had would put the current RTH balance VPOC virtually slap bang on the midpoint. (if it were 77.25 it would be exactly on the mid).

[roztom 10]

A word of warning if you are going to upgrade to latest IRT release- I can't seem to move any of my horizontal lines anymore (and no they aren't showing as locked).

 

Just upgraded before I read your post.. Which lines are you referring to? Tx

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just upgraded before I read your post.. Which lines are you referring to? Tx

 

Any horizontal drawing tool line. Could be other things too, but that's all I've noticed so far. You can still change the price manually in the item settings, just can't drag to move it. Try it to see if you can replicate the problem.

[roztom 10]

Any horizontal drawing tool line. Could be other things too, but that's all I've noticed so far. You can still change the price manually in the item settings, just can't drag to move it. Try it to see if you can replicate the problem.

 

Do you mean like if you put a trend line on it then you can't relocate it? Mine is ok if that is what you mean but I only tried it with a new line, not an existing one..