Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

I am concerned for bulls that time of day is not right. If it were 3:30 it would be different perhaps, but this seems like just enough time to peak out at 94/95, and then race back down to 83s (yes I'm still a bit fixated on that number).

 

Now you tell me... :crap:

 

I got my first scale, 93.00 Stop B/E... :rofl:

 

As a wise man once said: ACH...

[TheNegotiator 13]

It wouldn't be a surprising retest although it's also looking a little like they want to hold the open/yest low/low vol

[roztom 10]

1393.25 was where it stopped this morning before rotating to 90.75 then testing 94.25. Same rotation now anyone, just straight through or even fail and revert?

 

While ACh, I personally always think in terms of fuel...seems to me if I was going to be a seller and I wasn't short that I would want to sell higher up... Also since this is probably just short covering it can runout of steam anywhere... However, my technicals turned around 11:20 ish or so as I posted... that for me BTW does not mean go long, it means don't go short... Now we are in the go long mode but the ship has sailed for good trade location, imho...

[roztom 10]

Targets: I want to add something about how I "try" to visualize targets.. Of course I have the same levels more or less that you guys do but I also have to put them in context of timeframe.. that level below we have discussed 80ish is still a working level to me BUT here is where it gets crazy where is it easier for the market to go (theory) ? I believe up... Stops = closer...easier ... just the way I try to visualize the potential... think where stops and weak hands are located in addition the the longer timeframes...

 

How far? No clue since this might be just responsive short covering and not initiative buying..(My vote right now).

 

Here's the thought..we trade in the daytimeframe but if you pulled your microscope out & thought of it as a position trader then where would your target be? IMHO 80.25 - 77.00

[joshdance 10]

I plan to sell one at 94.50, and one at 95.25 -- this plan may change, but that is the plan.

[roztom 10]

I plan to sell one at 94.50, and one at 95.25 -- this plan may change, but that is the plan.

 

Are we going to trade contracts again?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Clearly there's no absolutes in this game with the level of information we hold, but there are possibilities which are more likey than others. One is that we get a neutral day as so far the profile is relatively balanced and so pop above IBH then close within it is realistic. Another is we pop above IBH only to find that actually there are no sellers and then we get at least a gap close to 1400.00- juicy target I'm sure most would admit. But what if we don't get above the IBH???? could we possibly liquidate and test that 82.50-80.50 area? Yah of course we could. Must be a lot of longs just as there were a lot of shorts before. Failure to break up as expected wouldn't be nice for them. So we watch and we wait and hopefully when we pounce we catch something nice(and have a good exit plan if not). :cinema:

[joshdance 10]

I see this return to 92 yet again as a bearish indicator. Why so many chances to buy here, if it's such a desirable price hmm?

 

EDIT: .. BUT, the time is running short for bears. If they are to take it to 83 today (kind of a long shot now maybe?), it should be going now, and at 86 by 3:40 or so IMO ... takes time to erase that much support.

[roztom 10]

Clearly there's no absolutes in this game with the level of information we hold, but there are possibilities which are more likey than others. One is that we get a neutral day as so far the profile is relatively balanced and so pop above IBH then close within it is realistic. Another is we pop above IBH only to find that actually there are no sellers and then we get at least a gap close to 1400.00- juicy target I'm sure most would admit. But what if we don't get above the IBH???? could we possibly liquidate and test that 82.50-80.50 area? Yah of course we could. Must be a lot of longs just as there were a lot of shorts before. Failure to break up as expected wouldn't be nice for them. So we watch and we wait and hopefully when we pounce we catch something nice(and have a good exit plan if not). :cinema:

 

Certianly agree... that is what makes a ball game..possibilites, probabilities and stepping into the unknown.. that is what we do... @ 2:05 I have no clue if we are going to make a new high... seems complacency or confidence for the shorts... still I am long with helmet on and a free shot to 95.00 ..I guess that is "trading."

 

Edit: 2:11 cst.. Flat all targets for long achieved.. :missy:

Edited March 29, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

still no trade yet for me, when it blew through the HOD I backed off... the fact that we are trading up into next balance does not make me warm and fuzzy about a short, so I will probably just watch but let's see..

[roztom 10]

still no trade yet for me, when it blew through the HOD I backed off... the fact that we are trading up into next balance does not make me warm and fuzzy about a short, so I will probably just watch but let's see..

 

Thanks for sharing that.. I think N's number to 1400ish is a good number..

 

BTW: 97.50 is a HVN/VPOC on a smaller composite going back to 3/13/12... just FYI.not sure if it is relevant..

Edited March 29, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for sharing that.. I think N's number to 1400ish is a good number..

 

BTW: 97.50 is a HVN/VPOC on a smaller composite going back to 3/13/12... just FYI.not sure if it is relevant..

 

it looks useful on a sess 31...

[roztom 10]

it looks useful on a sess 31...

 

I show that on Session 2..do you see it also?

[steve46 12]

Had a guest with me today, watching my process

 

He is a person with a good general background who is having problems pulling the trigger

 

I showed him my last hour trade which often triggers right around 12:00 local time... in this instance the initial signal occurred right at noon and the algorithmic pattern developed so that the entry was at 12:06.

 

Watching this, my friend asked the obvious qeustion, how can he develop the confidence to pull the trigger when (in his estimation) there is reason to believe that price could move in either direction?

 

The first part of the answer is simple....if you have doubts, you probably havent done your homework properly....the testing we do prior to trading should provide the platform for you to understand what your risks are and what your probability of success is on both the long and shorter time frames.

 

Second, once you know what your odds are, you should also know that not taking the trade constitutes an "oppportunity cost"...meaning that you lose that opportunity to make a specific amount of money...(according to your plan)...if your plan is correct and profitable, you can quantify that and THAT ALONE should provide the motivation to take trades.

 

Finally, those of us who do this on a regular basis have a track record that we can look back on

and it should provide some psychological comfort as to what we can expect per day/per week.

 

Any way as can be seen on the chart this last hour trade worked out fine, the only problem for my guest was that they had insufficient size on (because they are still learning) and so the profit was small...

 

On the technical side the trade started at 12:00 with the initial signal....a move down to test a demand node at 1392....we had a number there to provide confluence....the tick tested a previous made ledge low and the DAX showed that screen traders were already moving the market up....this one was pretty much textbook....interesting how differently the situation can be interpreted one person to the next...

 

hope everyone had a good day.

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

I show that on Session 2..do you see it also?

 

A couple of charts showing it. Just skip the first 5 days in the RTH first chart as I couldn't fit enough in on the sess 31 chart. If you look too, the touches in ETH are swing rejection types.

 

RTH:-

 

 

24hr:-

 

[roztom 10]

A couple of charts showing it. Just skip the first 5 days in the RTH first chart as I couldn't fit enough in on the sess 31 chart. If you look too, the touches in ETH are swing rejection types.

 

RTH:-

 

 

24hr:-

 

 

I "suspect" that if that VPOC means anything then we should / could build on the upside of it if we can build on top of it after filling the gap to 1400.00.. (?)

[joshdance 10]

channel

............

[roztom 10]

Looking at today's profile as of 3:cst - depending where we close.. and what happens in GBX - a lot of "maybe" I don't think we are going North... This smelled just like short covering..not much else...

 

Tomorrow should be fun . Got to see if we go back up into a bracket or break down... towards that 80ish..of course on it's own schedule...

[steve46 12]

This last screen shot shows how I use what I call "insets" to help me determine when to take profits

 

The darker blue bands show areas of significant previous imbalance. At these points price often either reverses or simply retraces....depending on other factors, the trader can at his/her discretion, decide to take profits on the initial test or even scale in additional size if they think the trade has more room to run.

 

The attached chart shows my last hour trade entry and the termination at a test of 1400.....

 

As with all trades I took most of my profit lower down and simply held a small piece to the last target....

 

Good luck

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here are the other days I had in the RTH chart for the ETH:-

 

Edited March 29, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[roztom 10]

Here are the other days I had in the RTH chart for the ETH:-

 

 

N: There was no attachment with this post...

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: There was no attachment with this post...

 

I am confused. I saw the chart - and in your quote! Anyway, fixed now.

[roztom 10]

I am confused. I saw the chart - and in your quote! Anyway, fixed now.

 

That's an intersting chart... Looking at todays close we are basically right there...I haven't looked at these timeframes to draw any conclusions except they are important VPOC's within the context.. I do not target them unless they are between other targets and there is nothing else nearby.. I consider them as potential obstacles or magnets...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom, I wanted to ask a slightly different question to your Unconscious Vs Conscious Competence thread.

 

Is The Subconscious Mind Emotionless?

 

This is the different thread I started to discuss it as I didn't want to hijack your thread! I'd be interested to here your thoughts on this along with others (Josh, Steve, CYP, Gosu and anyone else of course).

 

Back to the main topic

[roztom 10]

Tom, I wanted to ask a slightly different question to your Unconscious Vs Conscious Competence thread.

 

Is The Subconscious Mind Emotionless?

 

This is the different thread I started to discuss it as I didn't want to hijack your thread! I'd be interested to here your thoughts on this along with others (Josh, Steve, CYP, Gosu and anyone else of course).

 

Back to the main topic

 

N: I read the premise of your thread. I think that is a very interesting question. Unfortunately other than an opinion, which is not worth any more than that, I don't know the answer. I'm going to throw my 2cts in but I hope others with real knowledge vs opinions will help with that one..