Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

closed 88.25, hopefully I am not just a chicken. But why should it trade 1 tick below the low, and then come all the way back up here to 89? Looks like a good time for a long for me normally, so I close ...

 

EDIT: let me rephrase: I AM a chicken, but we already knew that. The question above remains, if indeed we are to trade lower.

Edited March 29, 2012 by joshdance

[roztom 10]

I want to mention those 15m bars again - just a personal preference... 15m is reasonably signifigent interday Swing H/L's. I look for where these areas are in relation to the VP and also as location for stops to help create trade for the rotations... If things align I postion in these areas, assuming alignment with other tools or exit an existing postion as refernced at the 87.00 ish level going down...

 

I think depending on how aggresive you want to be you can scalp these rotations especially the early ones as they test back against the early impulse... as far as how many times ..that I do not know...

 

What I "believe" though is that if we don't break, eventually those who have been selling the rotations will cover and then we go North..I do not have a way of knowing except if the obstacles going the other way are violated.. it would not be terribly out of line for this to rotate during lunch - how far - no clue at the moment... Personally, at this time the long side is not where I'm headed unless the structure changes..

 

Again this is banter and just how occasionally I read it... Hope this helps any of you that are interested and that this provides some value.. :missy:

[joshdance 10]

The simple scenario is that the sellers are still in control, and will sell to new lows.

 

Another scenario: very often when testing support, buyers will show themselves on the bid, as they did here, and then the push up is on low volume, leading many traders to short here in 88s. Low volume means low participation, so they think it's safe to reshort. Here it may be, but I've seen this play out many times where the real buying will start higher than 89, and now you have all the shorts from earlier, plus a fresh batch here in 88s, trapped, and they will want to retest 91s, 92s, ...

 

This is only one scenario, but one that's quite possible here IMO.

[CYP 10]

closed 88.25, hopefully I am not just a chicken. But why should it trade 1 tick below the low, and then come all the way back up here to 89? Looks like a good time for a long for me normally, so I close ...

 

EDIT: let me rephrase: I AM a chicken, but we already knew that. The question above remains, if indeed we are to trade lower.

 

Josh - I'm liking how you're flowing with the market, catching the waves as they come. Keep it up!!

[roztom 10]

Josh - I'm liking how you're flowing with the market, catching the waves as they come. Keep it up!!

 

Josh is body surfing... :rofl:

[roztom 10]

VPOC Shift to 88.00 @ apx 11:20cst.. I wish I "really" knew it's signifigence at this time & price... Delta is going up so is that short-covering or what...Wish somebody with some definitive understanding would post on the other thread we started but nobody has..

[joshdance 10]

The simple scenario is that the sellers are still in control, and will sell to new lows.

 

Another scenario: ...

 

This is only one scenario, but one that's quite possible here IMO.

 

The long-based scenario I mentioned should have already played out by now; another bullish scenario is possible, but the one I was proposing has not occurred, and it has taken too long to now occur.

 

That leaves me officially neutral, and I could see it easily going either way right now.

 

IMO this is where the market excels at having just enough people still short, and enough people now long, to screw one side REALLY well, or maybe even both if they try hard enough. What I mean is, earlier the market was pretty clearly short, but now a very good case can be made to be long, so it leaves that question in trader's minds. That's the dangerous zone -- probably a lot of people hold their position, long or short, around here at 88, so it leaves a lot of people in no-man's land.

[joshdance 10]

bigger picture profile, 2012 -- pretty clear (particularly upper two) areas of balance.

[roztom 10]

Is anyone still positioned Short?

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's looking to me like if we get a VPOC shift to 90(only ~ 3k) this could be bullish:2c:

[joshdance 10]

N and Tom (or anyone), would you say this is a "poor low" so far? You are masters of the "poor high" and "poor low" so I await your genius here...

[TheNegotiator 13]

N and Tom, would you say this is a "poor low" so far?

 

Absolutely. Poor extremes are ones which aren't rejected swiftly and/or are revisited multiple times. If you think of it from a MP TPO sense, I find this helps(although it can still be a poor low/high and only single print if it's at the start and end of a 30min bar).

 

The thing is, it doesnt mean that it'll get taken out in the same session necessarily, just that it'll probably get retested some time soon and roll over when it does.

[roztom 10]

Absolutely. Poor extremes are ones which aren't rejected swiftly and/or are revisited multiple times. If you think of it from a MP TPO sense, I find this helps(although it can still be a poor low/high and only single print if it's at the start and end of a 30min bar).

 

The thing is, it doesnt mean that it'll get taken out in the same session necessarily, just that it'll probably get retested some time soon and roll over when it does.

 

Agree...the issue with all this is that we have no clue "when" (or if) any target will get hit..

 

or how we will get there -the path..

 

I asked if anyone was short out of respect for shorts and nobody responded so I assume nobody is..

 

My "tech's" say we bottomed... or at least no short positions..this happened shortly after I posted about the VPOC shift around 11:20cst ish... not saying that was it but everything is turning up here.. Now I am NOT on a long and I could care less about it BUT we could get up to 95-96.00 .. not a recommendation, etc..just "speculation." :helloooo:

 

Also we could just rotate and the sellers could return later...I don't know... (right now)..

[TheNegotiator 13]

We have the VPOC shift to 90.00 now.

[joshdance 10]

BTW here's a 60min 24hr spun chart for those interested:-

 

 

I meant to ask -- what is this?

[joshdance 10]

We have the VPOC shift to 90.00 now.

 

I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:

[roztom 10]

I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:

 

I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:

 

Yeah, it doesn't feel great at the moment does it?! Probably below 88's is where at least a few longs will bail. Hold 88.50 into 2pm est and take 91's(maybe 92's) and shorts will not be happy.

 

(they just tested below 88.50 by a tick as i was typing this- not a bad thing for longs)

 

I meant to ask -- what is this?

 

Spun chart is just NQ/ES ratio.

[joshdance 10]

I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

 

The VPOC shift was to a price which was previously the VPOC already. To me when the market breaks to new territory, builds volume and gets a vpoc shift, it's a different scenario than simply a price that's been trading all day happens to get a few more contracts and does a "token" shift, just the way I see it anyway. I think delta around a vpoc shift will mean very little as a rule, as the market is too dynamic to present a pattern at such noncontinuous intervals. What I mean is that a shift in the mode is not a continuous function, unlike the VWAP, which may present more opportunity for this. Just my 2 cents, don't want to discourage you from looking!!

 

edit: to clarify my point: a shift in the mode should probably be clear, in a separate area of balance altogether, to be significant, which this was not, and really has not been, all day. The market will be more concerned with things like tomorrow's ECOFIN meeting, tomorrow's China manu PMI number, as opposed to 500 contracts trading more at 1390 than 1388.50 or vice versa .. just my

[roztom 10]

Thought I'd sashare this: My trading brain is in neutral: We are in a trading range here... I look at the volatility envelope or just 15m bars... If we take out 91.00 then 95.00- - 96.00 is on the plate.. I am keeping on my toes since we will go one way or the other If I was going to "guess" I would say up...but that is only a "guess" right now..mkt is short...

 

Edit: I fibbed as I posted this I went long: Targeting 93.00 & 95.00 :crap:

[TheNegotiator 13]

I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

 

Anything can happen, especially short term. But putting things into perspective, it's month/quarter end and the fed has just started to hint of a qe3. Not to say we will not sell off, just that the overall uptrend is likely to remain intact. Of course we have to see what DOES happen though.

 

I think that sometimes people can just get it wrong frankly. In fairness, there were signals that it could have been a good sell - midpoint not breaking, lower high and whatever else. I just see it as a profile which wants to be balanced to some extent. Does that mean it won't sell off? No. Does it mean that in this case the down side is probably more limited all things being equal? I'd say so.

 

Shifted to 88.50 and back to 90.00 in the time I was typing my post!

[joshdance 10]

If we take out 91.00 then 95.00- - 96.00 is on the plate..

 

Do you think y-low's 92 will be a factor?

[roztom 10]

Do you think y-low's 92 will be a factor?

 

Personally no...I do think todays high is more relevant since many shorts to cover prob yest NVPOC 95.00 ish good target .. Trend - depending on time frame may still have more to go to 80.25 but maybe they have to bust the weak shorts before they do... I am looking for more short covering since yesterday we didn't get enough, IMHO... but ACH

[joshdance 10]

I am concerned for bulls that time of day is not right. If it were 3:30 it would be different perhaps, but this seems like just enough time to peak out at 94/95, and then race back down to 83s (yes I'm still a bit fixated on that number).

[TheNegotiator 13]

1393.25 was where it stopped this morning before rotating to 90.75 then testing 94.25. Same rotation now anyone, just straight through or even fail and revert?