Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

closed 88.25, hopefully I am not just a chicken. But why should it trade 1 tick below the low, and then come all the way back up here to 89? Looks like a good time for a long for me normally, so I close ...

 

EDIT: let me rephrase: I AM a chicken, but we already knew that. The question above remains, if indeed we are to trade lower.

Edited by joshdance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to mention those 15m bars again - just a personal preference... 15m is reasonably signifigent interday Swing H/L's. I look for where these areas are in relation to the VP and also as location for stops to help create trade for the rotations... If things align I postion in these areas, assuming alignment with other tools or exit an existing postion as refernced at the 87.00 ish level going down...

 

I think depending on how aggresive you want to be you can scalp these rotations especially the early ones as they test back against the early impulse... as far as how many times ..that I do not know...

 

What I "believe" though is that if we don't break, eventually those who have been selling the rotations will cover and then we go North..I do not have a way of knowing except if the obstacles going the other way are violated.. it would not be terribly out of line for this to rotate during lunch - how far - no clue at the moment... Personally, at this time the long side is not where I'm headed unless the structure changes..

 

Again this is banter and just how occasionally I read it... Hope this helps any of you that are interested and that this provides some value.. :missy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The simple scenario is that the sellers are still in control, and will sell to new lows.

 

Another scenario: very often when testing support, buyers will show themselves on the bid, as they did here, and then the push up is on low volume, leading many traders to short here in 88s. Low volume means low participation, so they think it's safe to reshort. Here it may be, but I've seen this play out many times where the real buying will start higher than 89, and now you have all the shorts from earlier, plus a fresh batch here in 88s, trapped, and they will want to retest 91s, 92s, ...

 

This is only one scenario, but one that's quite possible here IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
closed 88.25, hopefully I am not just a chicken. But why should it trade 1 tick below the low, and then come all the way back up here to 89? Looks like a good time for a long for me normally, so I close ...

 

EDIT: let me rephrase: I AM a chicken, but we already knew that. The question above remains, if indeed we are to trade lower.

 

Josh - I'm liking how you're flowing with the market, catching the waves as they come. Keep it up!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VPOC Shift to 88.00 @ apx 11:20cst.. I wish I "really" knew it's signifigence at this time & price... Delta is going up so is that short-covering or what...Wish somebody with some definitive understanding would post on the other thread we started but nobody has.. :confused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The simple scenario is that the sellers are still in control, and will sell to new lows.

 

Another scenario: ...

 

This is only one scenario, but one that's quite possible here IMO.

 

The long-based scenario I mentioned should have already played out by now; another bullish scenario is possible, but the one I was proposing has not occurred, and it has taken too long to now occur.

 

That leaves me officially neutral, and I could see it easily going either way right now.

 

IMO this is where the market excels at having just enough people still short, and enough people now long, to screw one side REALLY well, or maybe even both if they try hard enough. What I mean is, earlier the market was pretty clearly short, but now a very good case can be made to be long, so it leaves that question in trader's minds. That's the dangerous zone -- probably a lot of people hold their position, long or short, around here at 88, so it leaves a lot of people in no-man's land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
N and Tom, would you say this is a "poor low" so far?

 

Absolutely. Poor extremes are ones which aren't rejected swiftly and/or are revisited multiple times. If you think of it from a MP TPO sense, I find this helps(although it can still be a poor low/high and only single print if it's at the start and end of a 30min bar).

 

The thing is, it doesnt mean that it'll get taken out in the same session necessarily, just that it'll probably get retested some time soon and roll over when it does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Absolutely. Poor extremes are ones which aren't rejected swiftly and/or are revisited multiple times. If you think of it from a MP TPO sense, I find this helps(although it can still be a poor low/high and only single print if it's at the start and end of a 30min bar).

 

The thing is, it doesnt mean that it'll get taken out in the same session necessarily, just that it'll probably get retested some time soon and roll over when it does.

 

Agree...the issue with all this is that we have no clue "when" (or if) any target will get hit..

 

or how we will get there -the path..

 

I asked if anyone was short out of respect for shorts and nobody responded so I assume nobody is..

 

My "tech's" say we bottomed... or at least no short positions..this happened shortly after I posted about the VPOC shift around 11:20cst ish... not saying that was it but everything is turning up here.. Now I am NOT on a long and I could care less about it BUT we could get up to 95-96.00 .. not a recommendation, etc..just "speculation." :helloooo:

 

Also we could just rotate and the sellers could return later...I don't know... (right now)..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:

 

I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:

 

Yeah, it doesn't feel great at the moment does it?! Probably below 88's is where at least a few longs will bail. Hold 88.50 into 2pm est and take 91's(maybe 92's) and shorts will not be happy.

 

(they just tested below 88.50 by a tick as i was typing this- not a bad thing for longs)

 

I meant to ask -- what is this?

 

Spun chart is just NQ/ES ratio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

 

The VPOC shift was to a price which was previously the VPOC already. To me when the market breaks to new territory, builds volume and gets a vpoc shift, it's a different scenario than simply a price that's been trading all day happens to get a few more contracts and does a "token" shift, just the way I see it anyway. I think delta around a vpoc shift will mean very little as a rule, as the market is too dynamic to present a pattern at such noncontinuous intervals. What I mean is that a shift in the mode is not a continuous function, unlike the VWAP, which may present more opportunity for this. Just my 2 cents, don't want to discourage you from looking!!

 

edit: to clarify my point: a shift in the mode should probably be clear, in a separate area of balance altogether, to be significant, which this was not, and really has not been, all day. The market will be more concerned with things like tomorrow's ECOFIN meeting, tomorrow's China manu PMI number, as opposed to 500 contracts trading more at 1390 than 1388.50 or vice versa :D .. just my :2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought I'd sashare this: My trading brain is in neutral: We are in a trading range here... I look at the volatility envelope or just 15m bars... If we take out 91.00 then 95.00- - 96.00 is on the plate.. I am keeping on my toes since we will go one way or the other If I was going to "guess" I would say up...but that is only a "guess" right now..mkt is short...

 

Edit: I fibbed as I posted this I went long: Targeting 93.00 & 95.00 :crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been watching Delta around those VPOC shifts to see if I could see any relationship...

 

Around 12:40 cst the Delta dropped and the VPOC shifted - correct me if I'm wrong on the timing and the mkt came off also I am getting short term sells..manic trading are us - not selling just FYI...

 

Anything can happen, especially short term. But putting things into perspective, it's month/quarter end and the fed has just started to hint of a qe3. Not to say we will not sell off, just that the overall uptrend is likely to remain intact. Of course we have to see what DOES happen though.

 

I think that sometimes people can just get it wrong frankly. In fairness, there were signals that it could have been a good sell - midpoint not breaking, lower high and whatever else. I just see it as a profile which wants to be balanced to some extent. Does that mean it won't sell off? No. Does it mean that in this case the down side is probably more limited all things being equal? I'd say so.

 

Shifted to 88.50 and back to 90.00 in the time I was typing my post!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you think y-low's 92 will be a factor?

 

Personally no...I do think todays high is more relevant since many shorts to cover prob yest NVPOC 95.00 ish good target .. Trend - depending on time frame may still have more to go to 80.25 but maybe they have to bust the weak shorts before they do... I am looking for more short covering since yesterday we didn't get enough, IMHO... but ACH :2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am concerned for bulls that time of day is not right. If it were 3:30 it would be different perhaps, but this seems like just enough time to peak out at 94/95, and then race back down to 83s (yes I'm still a bit fixated on that number).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.