Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Well, missed my next scale.88.50. - trying to be "disciplined." Rode it ALL the way back up - hate this @#%&.. Stop B/E on 2/3 position... :doh:

[joshdance 10]

Well, missed my next scale.88.50. - trying to be "disciplined." Rode it ALL the way back up - hate this @#%&.. Stop B/E on 2/3 position... :doh:

 

A bit tumultuous today so far isn't it?

 

Here's one of those "reality check" charts of SPX. If it looks like a duck, ... bottom line is, I think longs are toast. I hope so anyway, as it certainly looks that way.

 

Lots of buying coming in around the 90s to 91. Who the hell is buying here, I don't quite get the logic, but then again I don't have to understand.

[roztom 10]

A bit tumultuous today so far isn't it?

 

Here's one of those "reality check" charts of SPX. If it looks like a duck, ... bottom line is, I think longs are toast. I hope so anyway, as it certainly looks that way.

 

Lots of buying coming in around the 90s to 91. Who the hell is buying here, I don't quite get the logic, but then again I don't have to understand.

 

What is PW - Prev Week? tx

[roztom 10]

Well, got my 88.50 scale holding final "runners" for 80.25 area... As usual...clueless as far as where we will end up...

 

but at some point (maybe) 80.25 is "loaded" with paper...

[joshdance 10]

What is PW - Prev Week? tx

 

Yes, prior week --

 

damn these buyers, you gotta give it to them, when they hear "buy" they sure do it...

[clmacdougall 11]

Well, got my 88.50 scale holding final "runners" for 80.25 area... As usual...clueless as far as where we will end up...

 

but at some point (maybe) 80.25 is "loaded" with paper...

 

I too am calling short. 84.00 against 91.00

[joshdance 10]

Yes, prior week --

 

damn these buyers, you gotta give it to them, when they hear "buy" they sure do it...

 

I had an original scale point at 87, so I just closed 1/2 there ... I will settle for 83.50 for the final target

[joshdance 10]

For the trend line lovers -- I know I'm one! :rofl:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Stepped away for a few and it broke! It looks a little like there are buyers here but we 'want' to go lower. Does that ring true to what you guys have seen? If so, I would suspect that either 1- we see a break down followed by a sharp move higher, or 2-steady erosion of seller's control followed by a capitulation higher and follow-through.

 

Just one idea

[roztom 10]

Stepped away for a few and it broke! It looks a little like there are buyers here but we 'want' to go lower. Does that ring true to what you guys have seen? If so, I would suspect that either 1- we see a break down followed by a sharp move higher, or 2-steady erosion of seller's control followed by a capitulation higher and follow-through.

 

Just one idea

 

As Josh says: ACH..but I have embraced Auction Theory even before I studied MP with Stedilmeier (sp?). Of course, I didn't have a name for it at the time.. it just was something I observed.. it actually was a function of losing $ because initially I would put my stops with everyone else and then those lousy floor traders would run the stops but that wasn't really what was happening.. I came up with another explanation and that is when I formed my own understanding of rotations or the auction process...

 

As you guys know I look for this process as a necessary function of the market to "facilitate trade." I look for it on all timeframes..you guys know how I look at targets..

 

BTW I am making no claim that this is the "right stuff." It is just my

 

If I look at the chart the low down at 80.25 is a single and a CLVN...Longs wanted it bad there. It is also an important low... Doesn't it make sense that there is a "high" potential that "might" be revisited to get those stops and clean them out? There is that NVPOC at 77.00 - Isn't that a magnet?

 

This is how I see the process...with respect to anyone who sees it differently.. Of course this is a bull market and the longs may perceive value before we get there..but there is a ton of paper there.. just a view that gives me rational for how the market works..I am not saying it is correct in this current market - IMHO nothing ever is...

[joshdance 10]

Added 1 back here at 90.75, risk is 92.25 on 2, looking for a plunge lower

EDIT: risk 92.50 .. will give it 2 ticks above the open and y-low, no more

[TheNegotiator 13]

BTW here's a 60min 24hr spun chart for those interested:-

 

[roztom 10]

For the trend line lovers -- I know I'm one! :rofl:

 

If you don't like where the line intersects - you can always move it... :rofl:

 

Just messing with ya...

[TheNegotiator 13]

If I look at the chart the low down at 80.25 is a single and a CLVN...Longs wanted it bad there. It is also an important low... Doesn't it make sense that there is a "high" potential that "might" be revisited to get those stops and clean them out? There is that NVPOC at 77.00 - Isn't that a magnet?

 

Yeah I agree. But it's just as important to monitor for how effective the market is in moving towards that magnet too.

[roztom 10]

Yeah I agree. But it's just as important to monitor for how effective the market is in moving towards that magnet too.

 

Right...so how are we doing so far?

[TheNegotiator 13]

For comparison:-

 

 

(top = spun, bottom = es)

[roztom 10]

Added 1 back here at 90.75, risk is 92.25 on 2, looking for a plunge lower

EDIT: risk 92.50 .. will give it 2 ticks above the open and y-low, no more

 

I did not add since I am already short but I did consider scalping and I show a lvn 91.25 so that was where I would ahve been stalking... adding..right spot, IMHO...

 

The close if the current 15m bar coming up at 10:30 cst is imp't based on how I trade stops under 87.75 potential..foe a test after that - it can go either way.. Of course follow your plan..mine can be wrong as well as anyone elses... :helloooo:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Right...so how are we doing so far?

 

Honestly I couldn't say for sure as I've not been very focussed on trading today(that's why I asked you guys ). But I would have thought that there was good potential for a move lower towards the singles. Not really happened. Plus, the 94.25 short opp was quick so there could be some poor short locations out there. If there's a lot of shorts and we aren't moving lower and we are still in an uptrend, my thoughts are that the big potential would be up.

[joshdance 10]

Added 1 back here at 90.75, risk is 92.25 on 2, looking for a plunge lower

EDIT: risk 92.50 .. will give it 2 ticks above the open and y-low, no more

 

Reduced 1 here at 88.00

 

1 remaining, looking for 83.75

[TheNegotiator 13]

This could be interesting with that little move down there, but was just looking at the upward rotations:-

 

 

and also noting the lack of any really clean selling move so far with small pullbacks(all the pullbacks feel like they are rotational more than anything).

[joshdance 10]

In my view -- who is struggling more? Neither side is particularly dominating, but sellers have had the easier day to actually turn a profit, so they are likely more motivated to keep hitting that bid.

 

Stop to BE (91.50) on 1, target is 83s/84s

[TheNegotiator 13]

We'll see soon enough I guess but this was the thought I am starting to get:-

 

 

87.25 divides singles in day prof btw.

[joshdance 10]

The market thus far showing beautiful adherence to the profile, and reaffirms my faith in its usefulness. Compare where we have stopped here to where traditional support would say it should. I still feel this is but a pause, and that it WILL go lower to 83s, but it still demonstrates the market's respect for prior trade activity.

 

Said another way, without a profile and just looking at 30 minute bars, people are probably saying "why the hell did it stop HERE?"

 

Again, particularly due to my short position, I hope it will go test these 83s, but there's a reason why it was bought at 86s.

[roztom 10]

I did not add since I am already short but I did consider scalping and I show a lvn 91.25 so that was where I would ahve been stalking... adding..right spot, IMHO...

 

The close if the current 15m bar coming up at 10:30 cst is imp't based on how I trade stops under 87.75 potential..foe a test after that - it can go either way.. Of course follow your plan..mine can be wrong as well as anyone elses... :helloooo:

 

I want to revist this post... Josh you are "on the $" on your scale... In my "rotational view" there were stops potentially on the other side of those 15m bars if you look at those you will see the retracement up on 10:15 cst bar to test the 9:30 cst bar.. it one ticked it - easy $ (stops) also 91.25 interday lvn..there was urgent selling there so a rotation for a test & to get the easy stops was "logical." On the other side we needed a test of the 15m lows at 87.50 - which we got...which is why I waould scale there - which Josh did - Good job, IMHO...

 

Now what? DOn't know: Can go either way or rotate or continue down... If we take the F period current LOD then South buy South West to targets alreadyt articulated

[joshdance 10]

Will they get on with it already ... sometimes what frustrates me is that they will sell 87 hard, 2 ticks above the LOD. Yet, when they get to 86.50, they back off and let it trade back up to 88. I understand that the market must auction a bit higher sometimes to find more sellers, but :doh: ... the word "bipolar" comes to mind. On a micro level I know there is logic to this, but just get on with it...