Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Taking another scalp long here at 85.75, for 2 points, then a reverse short at 87.75 -- let's see if Mr. Market agrees or if I close this .... As N said, we may get rotation to 84.50, and then up...

 

OK, got the 2, short 87.75, but I'd like to see a quick rejection of 88 here.. if it keeps pushing I will simply bail.

[CYP 10]

I think they are in reach but I'd like to see some downside rotation to get some more late shorts in but structure is friendly to upside right now for those stops...

 

Out at 87.50...now I wait to see how higher we go before rotation time. It's nice to watch from the sidelines for a little bit...breathing easier now.

[roztom 10]

CYP: Nicely Done...

[joshdance 10]

OK, got the 2, short 87.75, but I'd like to see a quick rejection of 88 here.. if it keeps pushing I will simply bail.

 

Maybe the wrong move, but bailing for a tick here at 87.50 ... luck of the draw here IMO.

[roztom 10]

Maybe the wrong move, but bailing for a tick here at 87.50 ... luck of the draw here IMO.

 

I think you did good... YOu know what I am looking for... but of course your timeframe is different than mine - so you did good... IMHO...

 

We got Bernanke coming up to @ 11:45cst..

 

BTW, that was a reasonable spot for a short 88.00

[joshdance 10]

Just rotation around balance right now...

 

This is an example of what we were talking about before, N talking about being in tune with the market's ebbs and flows, and the importance of a good win or two... had I been frustrated because I missed lots of opportunities early, I would have been more likely to stubbornly hold onto this short which did not react the way I wanted it to initially. But because I am well in the green, there's no pressure to force anything. I would have been stopped out here at 88.75 or so, for an unnecessary 1 point loss.

 

When I look at the chart, 91 seems more likely to be reached unless we can quickly close back down below 88 and see some selling strength. The longer we hang up here, the more sellers will wait until 91 to reshort this IMO.

[roztom 10]

For the moment I think we are done with the downside other than some possible rotation...

 

we have that low @ 91.75 nearby & some GBX singles and DbleDist...not sure how relevant but I do note them on chart...

 

If we go Neutral then I will be looking to trade outside in... not my favorite but .. got to work with what the market offers - right

[joshdance 10]

If you were going to sell, where would YOU do it? ...

[roztom 10]

If you were going to sell, where would YOU do it? ...

 

I'd like to see test of 92.00 to clean out the stops + we have GBX DbleDist around 93.00and test the bottom of the 1-2-3.

 

But ... I hope to either see it rotate down first or they take it up & clean house & then I'd short... this is nomans land to me ... you aggressive guys could scalp these rotations but it is diddling in the middle...

 

85 - 86 ish downside for paper or upside first... either way you can look where the stops are on both sides as the target for your rotations... then either exit/scale or initiate a positon going the other way if that is your view...

 

Of course the structure is dynamic so anything goes... when we get there.

 

Just FYI: 85.25 is a little low vol notch..not sure if it is relevant but ...

Edited March 22, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

I am looking @ the moment based on how it behaves to Buy around 85.25 ish or Sell 91.00 - 92.00 .. Of course they are just numbers not sure if any of them matter.. or if the setup will be there when/if we get there..

[joshdance 10]

If they do not sell strongly at 91, I can see a possible case for selling 92, but I'd be a bit worried that we'd retest the balance low at 94s first, so it's a little bit of a scary short for me at 92. Also depends on time of day...

 

I'm actually looking to buy at the moment.

[roztom 10]

Took long 87.50..on short leash targeting 89.00 scale then upside.....might dump & reposition lower if it doesn't hold here towards 85ish..

[roztom 10]

Got head faked on the 87.50 still with it..have order resting at 85.25 to average down...I don't recommend this to anyone.. And am holding .. if we start up here then HOd is possible plus 92.00 ish... 94.00 a reach imho Dunno:confused:

[joshdance 10]

The 87.50s to 88.50s have become the local mode of this distribution, both today and including post Fed trading; it's the largest south of 95s and north of 68s.

 

Much lower here and we start to negate the buying tail created this morning... I need to see some real volume and positive buying reaction before I buy here.

[roztom 10]

The 87.50s to 88.50s have become the local mode of this distribution, both today and including post Fed trading; it's the largest south of 95s and north of 68s.

 

Much lower here and we start to negate the buying tail created this morning... I need to see some real volume and positive buying reaction before I buy here.

 

Yep... this is a fulcrum point here..looking 85.25 ..that is the area I should have waited for muchbetter location... Helmet on..

[joshdance 10]

Yep... this is a fulcrum point here..looking 85.25 ..that is the area I should have waited for muchbetter location... Helmet on..

 

If I see a reaction and real buyers at 85s here I will buy, but the further we go the less the buying tail means, thus the lower potentially, to 77-80, we may go...

 

edit 3:05pm -- so at this point, the market MUST show me buyers. So far, it's just test lower, test lower, no real volume to indicate size is here. I fear for the longs they may be waiting to buy the low, or even lower. When I see some real volume, I'll know there is real support. At this time of day this is important to me; this kind of volume at lunch means something different than it does at 3pm IMO.

[roztom 10]

If I see a reaction and real buyers at 85s here I will buy, but the further we go the less the buying tail means, thus the lower potentially, to 77-80, we may go...

 

edit 3:05pm -- so at this point, the market MUST show me buyers. So far, it's just test lower, test lower, no real volume to indicate size is here. I fear for the longs they may be waiting to buy the low, or even lower. When I see some real volume, I'll know there is real support. At this time of day this is important to me; this kind of volume at lunch means something different than it does at 3pm IMO.

 

Right on.. I dropped 2 pts per contact... all ok...

[joshdance 10]

looking to sell around 86 depending... this does not look like what a low should look like IMO ... further drop to new lows IMO

 

edit: 3:38pm, not short yet, maybe 87.50, depends on volume

Edited March 22, 2012 by joshdance

[joshdance 10]

looking to sell around 86 depending... this does not look like what a low should look like IMO ... further drop to new lows IMO

 

edit: 3:38pm, not short yet, maybe 87.50, depends on volume

 

finally shorted, 87.75, but may be on the wrong side now -- will see

[roztom 10]

looking to sell around 86 depending... this does not look like what a low should look like IMO ... further drop to new lows IMO

 

edit: 3:38pm, not short yet, maybe 87.50, depends on volume

 

Short 87.50 short leash

[joshdance 10]

finally shorted, 87.75, but may be on the wrong side now -- will see

 

out for -1 point ... WTF is with this close?

 

edit: re-shorting 88.25 .. hopefully this is not a stupid idea.

[joshdance 10]

out for -1 point ... WTF is with this close?

 

edit: re-shorting 88.25 .. hopefully this is not a stupid idea.

 

Closed this final one 87.25 .... pretty stupid at the end here really... I was in sync with the market all the way until the last 40 minutes.... I did NOT see that buying coming..... I hate getting pissed off, but when the market makes NO sense to me that's how I get. All day it made sense. Now we get tens out thousands bought at 87s, and then bids hold like crazy in 87s? wtf man.... geez

 

There was NO buying on the way down to 83, and it didn't even test a tick below the low... surprising that whoever's buying here is confident that this will be some kind of strong double bottom...

[roztom 10]

Closed this final one 87.25 .... pretty stupid at the end here really... I was in sync with the market all the way until the last 40 minutes.... I did NOT see that buying coming..... I hate getting pissed off, but when the market makes NO sense to me that's how I get. All day it made sense. Now we get tens out thousands bought at 87s, and then bids hold like crazy in 87s? wtf man.... geez

 

There was NO buying on the way down to 83, and it didn't even test a tick below the low... surprising that whoever's buying here is confident that this will be some kind of strong double bottom...

 

Yep...same here... GRRRR... :doh:

 

Tomorrow is another day = ==

[joshdance 10]

After considering this last part of the day, I was obviously upset, but it could have been worse. There were worse places to short there, and just happy I didn't mess up really big. At least I can say this: I went with my premise and I am not upset at all that I missed the long, because I was not expecting it to play out that way at all. Time for a few hours sleep, and back at it in the morning!

[steve46 12]

Don't have a great deal of time here, but looking at the posts, I wanted to suggest a couple of things...

 

As I have mentioned a couple of times, this is a news driven market....and we had quite a bit of negative news over the last several days...if you looked at a 15 minute chart, one thing that becomes evident is the way that Asia and Europe have reacted during the Globex session...from my point of view it seems obvious that we could expect some follow through during the US session...frankly I always bet on continuation of the most recent primary trend

 

With regard to today's last hour, there are several good reasons to anticipate buying, but for the technical traders, one easy way to understand is to use basic statistics....long story short you simply construct volatility bands based on the previous close....For today, the 2nd standard deviation from that close occurred at (you guessed it) 1382.50...for those who understand basic stats the 2nd standard deviation should include the majority of price action intraday...in other words 1382.50 is the place where you might expect a reversal.