Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

I knew that China concerns were on trader's minds, but I didn't know it was THAT big of a deal... sheesh.

[CYP 10]

I knew that China concerns were on trader's minds, but I didn't know it was THAT big of a deal... sheesh.

 

Josh, what happened in China? That's a nice 5 point slide on ES. How much lower will it go? We're going to have fun in the morning...or right now if you in the mix...

 

I think Tom had mentioned a rotation to 1394...or was it you? Either way, looks like we're going there.

 

CYP

[joshdance 10]

Josh, what happened in China? That's a nice 5 point slide on ES. How much lower will it go? We're going to have fun in the morning...or right now if you in the mix...

 

I think Tom had mentioned a rotation to 1394...or was it you? Either way, looks like we're going there.

 

CYP

 

HSBC flash China March PMI tumbles to 48.1 - MarketWatch

 

I mentioned that I would be looking to buy anything 94 or over, per the last chart I posted... as I type at 12:55am EDT, market has supported this area, not surprising. But when I wake up in 7 hours it will be interesting to see if it has held. See you all in the morning (or afternoon as the case may be )

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quite a few things to say in my first post this morning coming out of the discussion you guys had post market.

 

I'll start with current conditions, china and the composite profile. Back in 2007, I was chatting to someone who is acknowledged as currently one of the great prop traders. We were talking about ES and the chances the market would carry on up and up. This was btw before I really took on board MP/VP/AMT. I felt that it didn't matter that it was going up and that so long as it was, I was a buyer and that it could well continue to go up. Well, that idea wasn't entirely wrong although clearly the markets monumentally toppled not too long afterwards.:doh: I took that onboard as a lesson that I should be open minded and aware. The thing that reminded me of this is the albeit few recent late selloffs when the market is meant to be strong. I think conditions are different as the Fed seems to now be waging a personal war on $ amongst other ongoing issues. But it's the macro-awareness of structure that is important to me. I think we should start a sister thread to discuss maybe once a month the macro picture in the markets. What say you?

 

China I think could end up being a big problem at some point. As strong as they have been, there will come a time when they hit the wall and it remains to be seen whether they'll know what to do(or just copy the stupid west :rofl:). China matters, esp when Big Ben is rabbiting on about growth and the like.

 

The composite ahh, the composite. I agree Josh, but you need to recognize that like trend lines, fibonacci retracements, pivot points, moving averages and other such 'faith levels', people look at them. When we are moving out of recent activity(as you elluded to) you choose your poison and go with it. You might not be as aggressive with it, but it gives POINT OF REFERENCE.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom, you know what buddy, we all step out of line occasionally in the markets and that's what you did yesterday imho. You had some interesting 'other' ideas outside your plan and methods. Well you know as well as I do that the trading day is not about creativity. I've thought in the past actually, I would one day like to just have a bunch of traders who are very good at execution to trade for me. That's sometimes the curse of having a creative mind(or at least partly a creative mind). But hey, it is what it is for now.

 

The thing that strikes me about you Tom is your ability to read rotations seems to be very acute. I obviously don't know for sure, but if it is and it's something you don't already do then you really should try to leverage that as much as possible. The trouble can sometimes come with ROTATIONAL TEMPO. The speed, aggression, frequency and manner of the completion of subsequent rotations can really throw anyone at times. Some traders step back when they see this change. Some concentrate really hard. Some switch to a different market. The other thing is depending on nature and volatility, the changeability of rotational tempo can vary. The market could be doing nothing for example but actually it's really nervous, or it could be that OTF is on the sidelines waiting to do its business later on in the session.

 

The reason I mentioned all of the above is that in a "mean reverting" product like ES, rotations are so important. Josh mentioned before about having or not having a position can affect your perception of events. A guy I used to trade with, would always extol the virtues of your first trade being a winner. I think that what this all comes down to is being synchronised with the market rotations. In sync and you can have days like Josh had the other day. Out of sync and it seems like every trade's a loser. Most days we are somewhere in between. The trick is to amplify it when your sync is good and break it when it's bad.

Edited March 22, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[roztom 10]

HSBC flash China March PMI tumbles to 48.1 - MarketWatch

 

I mentioned that I would be looking to buy anything 94 or over, per the last chart I posted... as I type at 12:55am EDT, market has supported this area, not surprising. But when I wake up in 7 hours it will be interesting to see if it has held. See you all in the morning (or afternoon as the case may be )

 

I had projected 84ish based on what I saw in the Archaic bar charts... that was why my trading brain was planted in a dark place yesterday...

 

The chart WAS speaking to me but it was not the right thing to be listeneing to within the context of my tradable timeframe....

 

At least now there is some rationale for my behavior/conflict yesterday..it was very unusual for me to go through that but I suspect some subconscious holdover from my position trading days was active in my reptilian brain..:doh:

 

Either way the analysis is great to see come to fruition..

[roztom 10]

Tom, you know what buddy, we all step out of line occasionally in the markets and that's what you did yesterday imho. You had some interesting 'other' ideas outside your plan and methods. Well you know as well as I do that the trading day is not about creativity. I've thought in the past actually, I would one day like to just have a bunch of traders who are very good at execution to trade for me. That's sometimes the curse of having a creative mind(or at least partly a creative mind). But hey, it is what it is for now.

 

The thing that strikes me about you Tom is your ability to read rotations seems to be very acute. I obviously don't know for sure, but if it is and it's something you don't already do then you really should try to leverage that as much as possible. The trouble can sometimes come with ROTATIONAL TEMPO. The speed, aggression, frequency and manner of the completion of subsequent rotations can really throw anyone at times. Some traders step back when they see this change. Some concentrate really hard. Some switch to a different market. The other thing is depending on nature and volatility, the changeability of rotational tempo can vary. The market could be doing nothing for example but actually it's really nervous, or it could be that OTF is on the sidelines waiting to do its business later on in the session.

 

The reason I mentioned all of the above is that in a "mean reverting" product like ES, rotations are so important. Josh mentioned before about having or not having a position can affect your perception of events. A guy I used to trade with, would always extol the virtues of your first trade being a winner. I think that what this all comes down to is being synchronised with the market rotations. In sync and you can have days like Josh had the other day. Out of sync and it seems like every trade's a loser. Most days we are somewhere in between. The trick is to amplify it when your sync is good and break it when it's bad.

 

Thanks N.those are very kind & encouraging words..One of the things I find I have trouble with is trading just for short targets...I try to wait for key tests and rotations.. I do have a good eye for the rotations as you said - yet I typically don't trade them except to position with what I perceive is the trend or potential emerging trend.

 

I thought yeasterday would be a Neutral Day or would break to the downside.. It didn't go Neutral & didn't break until the cash close and then it wasn't the "break."

 

I am not sure what conclusion to draw re my analysis... only I could not capitalize on it and also since it only mattered in that timeframe as I have posted.

 

There are some things I am really skilled at the rotations and the longer view.. I read the market well.. the other stuff, well a work in progress...

 

I called the structure a 1-2-3 top yesterday...it was... now the trick for us is to grab the tiger by the tail... without getting bit..

[roztom 10]

Busy morning... Got run over on long side... 2X :helloooo:

 

Short 99.25 right now.... GRRR

 

Not to tout ANY position since I'm clueless this rejection off the bad high (not incl GBX) looks like a big 1-2-3 projects roughly 81.00 ish which is in line with the 84.25 low.. I'm not suggesting that for today just FYI... (a hold over from classical charting) .

 

BTW: The Opening Range has held the Upside rotation but it looks like a stalemeate so far...

 

This is my post from yesterday morning based on my chart read... :doh:

[roztom 10]

Btw, just had a look on alternative to and there are plenty of other options to look at:

 

Google Wave Alternatives and Similar Software | Popular Apps Like Google Wave - AlternativeTo.net

 

N: You never replied to what you were referring to about these... I am not familiar with them. What do they do? Tx

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: You never replied to what you were referring to about these... I am not familiar with them. What do they do? Tx

 

Just realtime project/collaboration software

[roztom 10]

Just realtime project/collaboration software

 

what could we use them for?

[joshdance 10]

When we are moving out of recent activity(as you elluded to) you choose your poison and go with it. You might not be as aggressive with it, but it gives POINT OF REFERENCE.

 

When moving into "uncharted waters," as we have been recently, I see the value more, though I still think that more traders will be watching a long term chart of SPX and SPY for points of reference. My point was that in this particular area and range, that the market obviously cares more about recent activity than 4 year old activity. But I digress, and I'll get off that horse.

[roztom 10]

I have 91.00 @ 7:54 as a potential short which I AM NOT Taking.. just some alignment..

 

just FYI... :missy:

[joshdance 10]

I think that what this all comes down to is being synchronised with the market rotations.

 

I think this is a very powerful statement, and ultimately what trading in the day timeframe is all about. When one or two losing trades hit, it becomes VERY difficult for me to get in sync with the market, because I am TRYING to crawl back to profitability. The mind is unclear, and is looking for something that simply is not there. When one is in sync, however, it's like there is no need to force anything... just let the market do it's thing, and then when it's time to take the trade it's almost 100% clear that the market will do this or that.

[joshdance 10]

what could we use them for?

 

To collaborate realtime my man! (instead of typing posts in a forum)

 

Actually I like the forum format, because it's easy for me to walk away and focus when necessary. The real time thing is harder to break away from, which is bad for me. I don't want to start posting all my stuff live all the time.

[roztom 10]

To collaborate realtime my man! (instead of typing posts in a forum)

 

Actually I like the forum format, because it's easy for me to walk away and focus when necessary. The real time thing is harder to break away from, which is bad for me. I don't want to start posting all my stuff live all the time.

 

Agree..I like to be able to leave it and come back when I'm in a positiona nd just monitoring or when stalking to focus away from it..I just hate typing - I'm a huntin - Pecker..I wonder if dictation software would work for this like Dragon or somehting?

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think there's a lot of use for the forum posts in that they are solid and are a running trail for others. Little comments here and there and sharing charts in realtime is much more difficult though.

 

I think the market struggled on its highs last couple of sessions. Dalton would say maybe it's too long. So, this overnight swing lower will make the open interesting reading. I suspect, although would like to be clear that I will monitor for activity, that the open will get responsive buyers. How strong and to where would be interesting too. Either way, prices away from yesterday = motivation for traders. I look at my charts and yesterday's close, the rth week open, the balance vpoc, yesterday's vpoc and vwap are all in the same area. 1397.75-99.00. There are probably others, but suffice to say the area is important.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[roztom 10]

I have 91.00 @ 7:54 as a potential short which I AM NOT Taking.. just some alignment..

 

just FYI... :missy:

 

I "guess" 91.00 wasn't a bad number after all... :crap:

 

Just warming up... my brain... now ifr it will only work in realtime...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, having said what I have in the last post, we are near overnight lows and below the eth vpoc. This could sell off further before responsive buyers step in- and of course it's possible that they won't at all. ACH

[joshdance 10]

With a 14.75 ON range, I do not want to sell below for extension... but I also cannot buy at the moment, particularly given the fundamentals and general sentiment. So, I will be a responsive seller around 90/91.

[TheNegotiator 13]

With a 14.75 ON range, I do not want to sell below for extension... but I also cannot buy at the moment, particularly given the fundamentals and general sentiment. So, I will be a responsive seller around 90/91.

 

What are you responding to?

[joshdance 10]

What are you responding to?

 

Price moving to the top of the overnight value area. In relation to yesterday's value, all selling here is initiative. But the overnight range is clear.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Has some new algo gone wrong or is this really crap pa?

[joshdance 10]

I just bought 88.25, seeing the hopefully inevitable hitting of 90s, for a 2 point scalp here if 90.25 is hit.

 

EDIT: that was quick, only got 89.75 but it's 1.5 to start the day.

Sell orders at 90.50 and 91.50

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think the new algo is called the "the hypnotizer", cos it's sending me to sleep!!