Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Market just checking out those 92.75's at the moment:-

 

[steve46 12]

Perhaps this might help someone

 

I was thinking that it might be useful for folks to visualize the markets in a simplified manner, looking to anticipate movement of price based on "timing", and some common sense as to how participants will react to the news (in this case economic reports)

 

On the open (the red down arrow on the upper left), this market moved down.....if you have a way to get on, great, if not....why not simply watch and observe as the market reacts to the pending economic news....simply observe and interpret what you see in basic terms....

 

The market is correcting down, but that movement is orderly....what it looks like to me, is that some folks are taking a bit of profit, and some are simply waiting on the sidelines for the news

This orderly correction is happening from the left most red arrow down to the elipse at or near the lower boundary of previous day's value (1387) For me this area represents a favorable entry, in part because I know that other value oriented traders will act there, and also because I see what I call horizontal development or "balance" between buyers and sellers...this happens because folks are waiting here for the news.

 

This area of balance represents a "timed" opportunity....it will only last for a short period of time before events cause traders to act one way or the other....in my view this is a strong market and we are probably going north....I think the odds favor a long here....I got filled at 88 and again from my point of view timing is important....I want to be filled at or near 6:45am because I want to hold this trade until about 2 minutes before the release...and if I am right I should see a small profit....if I am wrong, a close below the darker blue demand node will tell me so and I can get out with about a point loss...for me thats decents odds.

 

For me the result is not as important as the thought process.....as we know in hindsight the market moved up prior to the release and then retraced slightly (back to my entry point)....I have seen this many times (retrace back to the entry)...I have a small piece of my position left in place...if it closes below that point (88) I am out...if not I hold and wait for it to resume what I think is the primary trend north...today it worked out.....

 

The result was that I got a couple of points off the opening entry at 88.....leaving a small piece in, I watched it retrace....when it came back to my entry I simply followed my rule set....close below entry I am gone....bounce off....I hold (looking for a continuation up to previous highs.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hope everyone is watching oil!!

[steve46 12]

Hope everyone is watching oil!!

 

Yes, Mr. Obama is considering releasing stock from the US strategic reserve, and the talk is causing traders to take profits today....

 

Just now on my Bloomberg, "White House denies rumors of releasing stocks from the strategic reserve......"

 

Interesting timing...

Edited March 15, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

There is a lot of news flow right now. I'd suggest to everyone to be on your toes if you are trading!

[roztom 10]

Market just checking out those 92.75's at the moment:-

 

 

Exited my longs @ 94.50 just over recent HOmove & CLVN 94.50.. I think 1400 ish possible today but wanted to book a few hamburgers and will now look for rotation if everything lines up for a continuation trade.. I think the "easy $" has been made... :missy:

 

I just read further back & see we all have 1400.00 Yikes... I'm putting my helmet on... :helloooo:

Edited March 15, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Exited my longs @ 94.50 just over recent HOmove & CLVN 94.50.. I think 1400 ish possible today but wanted to book a few hamburgers and will now look for rotation if everything lines up for a continuation trade.. I think the "easy $" has been made... :missy:

 

I just read further back & see we all have 1400.00 Yikes... I'm putting my helmet on... :helloooo:

 

Nice one but 1394.50? 1 tick above yesterday's high?

[roztom 10]

Nice one but 1394.50? 1 tick above yesterday's high?

 

Yes..That was as high probability as it gets... I expected some stops and new buying on the breakout.. Unbfortunately I did not put my full position on so I had to decide whether I wanted to leave some on for the 1400 area...or take it out. I decided to book the $..

 

"Typically," we get some counter-rotation over lunch..I am going to reposition if we rotate, if not then I am done... I do think the 1400.00 is next on the hit parade... how we get there is another question...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Fair enough. Was a near certainty you'd get it although 94.00's were available. I think that there is a good chance we could see 1400's and a bit higher, but I think they will want to gather some strength into it. A failure to break through wouldn't be the end of the world, but it wouldn't be great either. Failure at 1400 then break through 84's wouldn't be great(not necessarily all in one session).

[steve46 12]

I think quite a few folks got on board in the area around 87-88 so they are motivated to take profits here (looking for 10 pts)

 

In a strong market, this is what a failure looks like on the sub-minute time frame...and the DAX provides confirmation as the Germans close shop for the day...cash closed a while ago

 

The move down occurred off of a high (800+) tick as it usually does.

 

Usually on a strong day the automated execution will take over and move us up to test the big number (1400)....I have no way of knowing if that will happen here or not...will simply react to it like everyone else.

 

If we do test the number I would expect a failure on the first try.

[roztom 10]

Fair enough. Was a near certainty you'd get it although 94.00's were available. I think that there is a good chance we could see 1400's and a bit higher, but I think they will want to gather some strength into it. A failure to break through wouldn't be the end of the world, but it wouldn't be great either. Failure at 1400 then break through 84's wouldn't be great(not necessarily all in one session).

 

Agree, I can't even count how many times I've been left at the alter when a target just doesn't get hit... like the 1400.00. Now today I "think" it is a high probability but somewhere along the line I figured out what I think doesn't matter...

 

I do have difficulty managing runners which is why I started the thread "How To Exit a Profitable Trade." Of course, I haven't seen anything I don't know - at least not yet, but I am hopeful there might be some new ideas that might generate some ideas for me since I seem to have exhausted my ideas and I am not satisfied with having to leave several points on the table to get taken out... on a trailing stop... The closest I've found is either under a LVN on the days profile or ATR stop on a tight timeframe... either way is a big chunk of open trade $... SO I am still trying to find something satisfactory for the runners..

 

One of the issues with my runners in ES is that when I get stopped out..for my full position when I factor in the runners and the average range of ES and the slippage going in and giving up apx 2 pts coming out that is a signifigent part of the range - typically, which is why I am not satisfied -

 

Of course today is atypical and ATRS is still long stop under 1395.00 as of 12:07cst...

Edited March 15, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

I think quite a few folks got on board in the area around 87-88 so they are motivated to take profits here (looking for 10 pts)

 

In a strong market, this is what a failure looks like on the sub-minute time frame...and the DAX provides confirmation as the Germans close shop for the day...cash closed a while ago

 

The move down occurred off of a high (800+) tick as it usually does.

 

Usually on a strong day the automated execution will take over and move us up to test the big number (1400)....I have no way of knowing if that will happen here or not...will simply react to it like everyone else.

 

If we do test the number I would expect a failure on the first try.

 

Steve: DO you use 24hr charts or do you switch over to RTH?

 

I typically keep an eye on both until the RTH IB is in... then I just use RTH.. Thoughts?

[roztom 10]

BTW: I repositioned against 94.25 LVN and CLVN 94.50...so basically I'm back in the position... at apx where I exited... so now helmet on..

[steve46 12]

I always use 24 hour charts

 

I find that my system provides sufficient signals to keep me busy so except for (previous) value extremes I don't use MP or VP displays...I stick to the confluence signals provided by supply/demand nodes, areas of balance/imbalance and time based pivots.....and I read the tape....I try to keep it as simple as possible..

Edited March 15, 2012 by steve46

[roztom 10]

BTW: I am still long but added 93.75 to improve my avg cost a bit but mostly because 93.25 was my next level down .. if we get below there then I am gone..just my little plan as of 1:05cst :missy:

[steve46 12]

I had a reversal signal at 1393.25 but simply missed the entry

 

Here is the chart

 

The green arrow shows price testing the midpoint of a demand node.....I did not have a number there but I did identify an area of previous imbalance.... it was a valid signal for my system....I didn't have my head in the game and missed it....

[roztom 10]

I had a reversal signal at 1393.25 but simply missed the entry

 

Here is the chart

 

The green arrow shows price testing the midpoint of a demand node.....I did not have a number there but I did identify an area of previous imbalance.... it was a valid signal for my system....I didn't have my head in the game and missed it....

 

Steve: If I may ask was that to add to a position you are holding from this morning or did you bail earlier and were going for a continuation? Tx

[steve46 12]

Steve: If I may ask was that to add to a position you are holding from this morning or did you bail earlier and were going for a continuation? Tx

 

I closed my early long entry (from 88) at 95.....and I always "look for" continuation of the primary trend...

 

and for the person who came in looking for advice on his system....my strategy is to adapt to seasonal variation in volatility by managing size and scaling out....this is pretty much the way it is for the S&P market....I look for a baseline of 2 or 3 point wins to keep me in the game...I leave a small piece in there in case a trade runs in my favor....just this one strategy has the effect of (approximately) doubling my R/R on a given trade so in my opinion its worth it...and when volatility comes back into the system, those 2 or 3 point wins turn into 5,7 or 10 points.

[roztom 10]

I closed my early long entry (from 88) at 95.....and I always "look for" continuation of the primary trend...

 

and for the person who came in looking for advice on his system....my strategy is to adapt to seasonal variation in volatility by managing size and scaling out....this is pretty much the way it is for the S&P market....I look for a baseline of 2 or 3 point wins to keep me in the game...I leave a small piece in there in case a trade runs in my favor....just this one strategy has the effect of (approximately) doubling my R/R on a given trade so in my opinion its worth it...and when volatility comes back into the system, those 2 or 3 point wins turn into 5,7 or 10 points.

 

Hmm, tx..so my exit at prev HOD seems appropriate and my re-entry also... I am now looking to scale around 96.50 before HOD and then work the balance... Tally Ho.. Risk to 93.50..if we go that way I may exit before...

[steve46 12]

Again this may help some

 

The attached chart shows two views.....a 3 min chart on the left and on the right a 1 minute chart

 

On the three minute time frame price tests into a demand node....then you scan left and in the elipse I show an area of previous balance inside that demand area.....just to the right of that area of balance, you see the start of a trend up as buyers come into the market.

 

The confluence of price testing an area where previously buyers were willing to act with a demand node, suggests that participants might come in again to try to move the market up

 

and in this case, that is what happens

 

On the right side you see the reversal pattern on a 1 minute time frame...

[roztom 10]

Again this may help some

 

The attached chart shows two views.....a 3 min chart on the left and on the right a 1 minute chart

 

On the three minute time frame price tests into a demand node....then you scan left and in the elipse I show an area of previous balance inside that demand area.....just to the right of that area of balance, you see the start of a trend up as buyers come into the market.

 

The confluence of price testing an area where previously buyers were willing to act with a demand node, suggests that participants might come in again to try to move the market up

 

and in this case, that is what happens

 

On the right side you see the reversal pattern on a 1 minute time frame...

 

Tx Steve: Is your risk down to that demand node or do you manage it a different way? tx

[steve46 12]

Tx Steve: Is your risk down to that demand node or do you manage it a different way? tx

 

Yes Tom, entry at 93.50 (probably fill at 93.75) and my stop is a close below 93.....realistically I am reading the tape and I can see if it is going in that direction....it is unusual for me to take more than a point loss on a trade.

 

naturally I am disappointed that I missed this one....I would have taken profit at the next node even though it wasn't exactly three points, and I would have left a small piece in there just in case...I have heard traders call this a "risk free" trade....there's really no such thing, but I understand the reasoning....

[roztom 10]

Yes Tom, entry at 93.50 (probably fill at 93.75) and my stop is a close below 93.....realistically I am reading the tape and I can see if it is going in that direction....it is unusual for me to take more than a point loss on a trade.

 

naturally I am disappointed that I missed this one....I would have taken profit at the next node even though it wasn't exactly three points, and I would have left a small piece in there just in case...I have heard traders call this a "risk free" trade....there's really no such thing, but I understand the reasoning....

 

Yes...I am now flat.. 2:47.cst out 95.75... on balance... Of course after guys like me bail and they flushh it the mkt can often make the run in the last 15m after cash closes but I'm ok with that... If I see it going that way, sometimes I will take a few after the shake & break...

[joshdance 10]

not having a high win rate entails being able to read the useless micro... a skill hardly anyone has, IMO. i need to trade at meaningful levels that produce meaningful movements to make up for a 2 pt minimum stop that is absolutely required in the ES.

 

the truth is, less than 5% are successful at trading. until someone posts their real trades that they really took, it's all just text.

 

bojangle,

 

1) Just because you don't have the skill to read the "useless micro" doesn't mean others don't. By the way, I'm not saying I'm great at it either, but changes in the micro are at the foundation of changes in the macro, IMO. 2 points is reasonable, and sometimes I go beyond that to 3 or 4, but many times I take less than 3 or 4 ticks of heat. Other times of course, I'm just plain wrong.

 

2) Have a look over at ET on the 2012 ES journal. I and others post real time trades; some trades I'm taking now are sim as I'm experimenting, but many people post real time trades, both live and sim. Check it out if you want to see live calls, if that proves something to you.

Edited March 16, 2012 by joshdance

[joshdance 10]

Today was one of the easier days for me to read so I thought I would post a shot of what I saw as I took my first trade -- it was a long at 88.75 just after the news, covering at 92.25 for 3.50 handles.

 

Here are the things in my mind at the time in order:

 

1) Overnight activity: bullish, then balance. Testing Wednesday's lows early in globex, the market shot up fast during Asia, and then stayed in a 4 point range the rest of the session.

 

2) The open-- it is within yesterday's range, and yesterday's value. This suggests a balanced market from the start, but again, a market which has been relatively bullish overnight.

 

3) The drive down at the open: the move down was clearly a search for value. It was far too linear, vertical, and lacking "pop" to be selling of the type that is seeking to move out of balance. Rather, this market was clearly in search of buyers. TICK was helpful too -- lower lows, but none on TICK. Not quite hitting -500, this is not serious selling activity.

 

4) The location: my area I was watching was 88s, Wednesday's primary area of activity and close. The market did an "extreme" by testing below this, and as the chart shows the shape started to curve and "round" as I call it. The delta on the volume shows a tapering off of selling, yet a steady pace of volume, indicating market buyers getting involved. I was tempted to buy here, but decided to wait until after the report.

 

5) Push up before the report: very bullish with strong buying.

 

6) Retrace after the report: this was the trigger. The black arrow shows how 88.50 held strongly, even though we had 15k trade in 60 seconds, then another 10k. Bids just held nicely. The actual momentum on the tape was what made it clear, only in real time (or replay I guess) could you see it so clearly. I bought at this time.

 

7) The exit: The 92.25 exit was an easy one. Sure it was kind of early, but my target was 93, and to me it's quite foolish to risk giving back 8 ticks (where I had moved my stop) to gain 3. Location was such that I expected sellers, both from premarket supply as well as yesterday's profile shows.