Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

There was lots of contention there at 68.00 just. We almost got a VPOC shift. If we get back there soon and do, that might motivate a few traders.

 

We should discuss VPOC shifts... As you anticipated with the shift the market will either push off to continue the trend or rotate since there is a stalemate at that level so the market will move out of there one way or the other...

 

I watch Delta at VPOC's to try to see if selling is being absorbed as in this case at 68.00..

I do not have a definitive outlook since I do not typically initiate or exit a trade based on the VPOC shift... however, if the selling overwhealms the buying then we can expect the rotation we discussed for the market to advertise for more buyers with better prices down below possibly where there was low volume and competition for price otherwise it is being absorbed... and after some consolidation/coiling it will build energy for the next move with the trend...

 

One thing I look for: I watch 15m bars to see where there might be some stops building under the market and then how far is the next area.. In a strong market I expect the easy stops to get picked, especially if they cluster near some recent multiple 15m bars - 66.25 - 75.. as of 10:29cst If everything lines up I look to add in those areas..

 

At these times I just wear my helmet since it can do either... :missy:

Edited March 9, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

We ticked 1366.25 @ 10:38:54..

[roztom 10]

I want to add why I like 15m Flags... If you look at today's

RTH chart you will see the drive up, consolidation with lower highs forming the top of the pennent and then the probe lower on rotation for the easy stops and then potentially the bottome of the pennent is put in...

 

I see these a lot in a directional move in a trending market like we have today in ES.. not to mention the breakaway gap under us from yesterday.. I "anticipate" the potential for 72.00 area or higher this afternoon "if" we come out of the top of this pennent... just a holdover from my bar charting days..we'll see..

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom,

 

I've started a thread to chat about VPOC shifts. Going to briefly write about what it is so people who's never heard of it can understand then I hope we can have a good discussion on it.

 

VPOC Shifts

[TheNegotiator 13]

I want to add why I like 15m Flags... If you look at today's

RTH chart you will see the drive up, consolidation with lower highs forming the top of the pennent and then the probe lower on rotation for the easy stops and then potentially the bottome of the pennent is put in...

 

I see these a lot in a directional move in a trending market like we have today in ES.. not to mention the breakaway gap under us from yesterday.. I "anticipate" the potential for 72.00 area or higher this afternoon "if" we come out of the top of this pennent... just a holdover from my bar charting days..we'll see..

 

I think you used to see flags more frequently in ES. I like them too Tom, but would caution anyone about looking for them. If they are good, they're obvious. Like you said too, they are better in a trending market.

[roztom 10]

I think you used to see flags more frequently in ES. I like them too Tom, but would caution anyone about looking for them. If they are good, they're obvious. Like you said too, they are better in a trending market.

 

Today seems very much like a flag... I am playing it that way eventhough my tools are in a short-term sell for this rotation... that is where sensing where stops are resting helps to define where the outer edge of the pennent "might" be...

 

SInce nothing is absolute we always have to know when a structure fails... sometimes these pennents turn into symmetrical triangles and you get your brains beat in with the narrowing chop..

 

Today, however, looks, smells like a strong pennent with an objective potentially over 72.00 ish..

 

I have a CLVN at 72.50 and HOYear at 71.50... I suspect that is where we are headed... today

[TheNegotiator 13]

Today seems very much like a flag... I am playing it that way eventhough my tools are in a short-term sell for this rotation... that is where sensing where stops are resting helps to define where the outer edge of the pennent "might" be...

 

SInce nothing is absolute we always have to know when a structure fails... sometimes these pennents turn into symmetrical triangles and you get your brains beat in with the narrowing chop..

 

Today, however, looks, smells like a strong pennent with an objective potentially over 72.00 ish..

 

I have a CLVN at 72.50 and HOYear at 71.50... I suspect that is where we are headed... today

 

You know you said Tom you have a clean PC for trading, you need to somehow have a way of saving pictures at least. You can definitely do it (in IRT right click then save>picture) but would need to email it to yourself to annotate.

 

I think the one thing that I've always with virtually no exceptions found, is that time really does play a massive part with flags. Flags are momentum continuation patterns and if they don't break in good time, they just end up not being useful. Although an over mature flag often retraces too, just as a failed flag is a very good indication for a reversal. Anyway, just a few thougths

[roztom 10]

You know you said Tom you have a clean PC for trading, you need to somehow have a way of saving pictures at least. You can definitely do it (in IRT right click then save>picture) but would need to email it to yourself to annotate.

 

I think the one thing that I've always with virtually no exceptions found, is that time really does play a massive part with flags. Flags are momentum continuation patterns and if they don't break in good time, they just end up not being useful. Although an over mature flag often retraces too, just as a failed flag is a very good indication for a reversal. Anyway, just a few thougths

 

Agree. They are a good structure to work with...

 

I am still in a short term sell which, of course can turn into something more on the downside... If someone "knows" I hope they will share it woth me... I don't know how this will resolve itself... so far I exoect it will resolve to the upside - unless the structure fails aned we know that is possible also...

 

I believe in trading that is about all we can know... If anyone has a better way of evaluating the current ES market as of 11:35cst I'd appreciate getting your take on it...

 

When we go into the slow/lunch period I often look for a counter-rotation to position for a continuation... the fact it happened early may be all we get or maybe we will get more...

 

That is what makes a ball game right? :helloooo:

[roztom 10]

N: I copied my VPOC comments on the VPOC thread.. I'm not sure how to split the discussion between 2 threads and may just have to stick here unless that one is going to be more VP... What do you suggest?

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: I copied my VPOC comments on the VPOC thread.. I'm not sure how to split the discussion between 2 threads and may just have to stick here unless that one is going to be more VP... What do you suggest?

 

I suggest any "example" type material goes to the VPOC thread, but any specific current market discussion should remain here.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Has anyone got any current thoughts on ES short(/long) term top right now as discussed in other thread?

 

Time for a Top in ES?

 

I think it'll be potentially very interesting if follow through to the upside doesn't happen + say 1350 goes again.:missy: Watching and waiting for now though although even right now, the lack of conviction has me thinking.

Edited March 9, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[roztom 10]

Has anyone got any current thoughts on ES short(/long) term top discussion right now as discussed in other thread?

 

Time for a Top in ES?

 

I think it'll be potentially very interesting if follow through to the upside doesn't happen + say 1350 goes again.:missy: Watching and waiting for now though although even right now, the lack of conviction has me thinking.

 

I know I don't know... but I am long so I am "wagering" new highs..of course when?

 

I am on the edge of going back on a short-term buy signal: Dqancing on the edge of the knife now so we will see.... :missy:

[roztom 10]

BTW: We have been discussing pennants, etc.. A pennent is a triangle on top of a pole and as N points out if it falls out the bottom it is a failed pennent.. As of 12n cst if you look at a 15m bar you will see the consolidation and the compression/coil..It is energy building up for a directional move..The flag pole which was the early drive is the basis for which way it should come out.. also you can measure an objective off it. FOr some of you who don't use this method it is classical bar charting.

 

For ES I like 15m bars... Other than a Daily chartthe 15m is an important chart to me to see how the day is developing and especially where stops will cluster...15m high/lows are swing high/lows - right? So where are the stops? Think -where is the easy $.. Think where you would be "most" comfortable pulling your stop to? Think where everyone else will pull their stop to... Then - Don't Do It.. put your stop somewhere else based on a different criteria..this of course is based on your timeframe, risk management, etc....

 

FLag Measuring Objective: You would take the distance of the vertical pole and measure that distance from the lowest part of the declining tops of the pennent from where it breaks out...

 

I am not a breakout trader, too much risk for me which is why if I suspect a pennent developing and it aligns with my other tools I always want to try to position on a rotation to the bottom side of the pennent..Today we only have about a 2 pt range, not enough for me to scalp but often if the swings are wider I will trade the rotations while waiting for it to breakout.. or add & hold if there is enough range in the pennent so I can pull a stop up but so far no room - based on how I trade...

Edited March 9, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

As of 12:34cst I am oscillating betw buy/sell - We are deasd in the middle.. the microscope says we are going to break to the upside and I have added to my long... I am averaging against my long from down below... this is tricky here since it can still fail - of course... and my indicators that I watch are moving like a sailboat that is caught with no wind..and the sail is just luffing...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hope you were okay on that one Tom. We finally saw the move to 1365/mid though.

[steve46 12]

Just a quick note.....this was one of the events that I wait (and prepare) for

 

I refer to the activation of Greek law CACs just a while ago...

 

The event was talked about on the financial news periodically and as recently as last night on

Bloomberg

 

For my style of trade it works well because it allows me to make sense of the market action when technicians cannot

 

Earlier in this thread Tom you mentioned the "sail luffing"...well understood....this is because the market comes to a stop....meaning market participants (in this market the majority of them professionals) wait for the news knowning that it may have a significant effect on them...

 

The chart shows me a slightly different story...as I have posted previously....on the minute & sub minute time frame you can see the granularity as price oscillates in a charactistic way just prior to the accouncement....The circle around the action just prior to the news shows price tick up and down as participants "cast their votes"...and of course you always get the programmed input as the order flow is intercepted by the bots....then right after the announcement you have the short tick up to find buyers.....but no takers....then the cascade down as the herd sells it off....this is the initial move that I was looking for.

 

It was a measured move down followed by the retrace as price tested near the previous day's high at 62.50

 

Technical analysis doesn't get you there folks....you need something else

 

Best of luck to all

[TheNegotiator 13]

Technical analysis doesn't get you there folks....you need something else

 

Why do you say this? We talked about the possibility of this based on tech and auction basics earlier.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay everybody, I'm off now. I hope you all had a good week and enjoy your weekend!

[steve46 12]

Why do I say this?

 

Because reviewing the previous page of posts...no one....suggests that this event was on the horizon.....did you forget that this news was going to impact the market this afternoon...?

 

Certainly no one anticipated it here on this thread in the last page....

 

and it was worth 5 points....

 

thats why

[TheNegotiator 13]

Why do I say this?

 

Because reviewing the previous page of posts...no one....suggests that this event was on the horizon.....did you forget that this news was going to impact the market this afternoon...?

 

Certainly no one anticipated it here on this thread in the last page....

 

and it was worth 5 points....

 

thats why

 

You sold at 68.00 and exited at 63.00? Hmm, very well done if that is what you did. I think most people were aware steve, but I'm not pretending I knew exactly how ES would react to the news and frankly, I didn't care as I'd stopped trading by that point. You might say if there's an opportunity for a trade you should be there, but my point is i'd rather be sharp when I am trading. Remember, most people don't trade overnight like you do.

[steve46 12]

Point well made.....you are in London...and as I recall you keep abreast of the news

 

I would suggest that the Americans in the group did not anticipate it

 

Here on the west coast the news was announced right before noon.

 

As to the reaction...I believe that experience dictates how you view this....for me it is straightforward....when ISDA announces that a "credit event" has triggered, a certain subset of folks are going to react...I am clear on that.....what is debatable I think is how much impact that announcement will have on the American market....after all, they have been preparing for this overseas for a long time....but again folks here.....not so much...that is why I thought it to be a good bet....

 

As to the trade itself....if you read the tape you can see where the bid is held....from my point of view this isn't unusual.....since I scale out I can take profit and even hold some hoping for continuation.......for those interested...there is a reason these announcements are made on Friday at the close of the S&P Futures....think about it for a moment...by announcing it at the end of the day, someone gets a preview of how THIS market reacts to the event...overseas there are folks looking for some clue as to what to do with thier money on monday....

 

Good luck folks.

[gosu 10]

I'm not sure what your point is Stevie. Are you crowing about your knowing there was news coming out of Europe at noon that might affect US equities? So you made a bet based on a prediction and you got paid off. What's the big deal? You act like you're new to it.

 

I didn't know about the news but it was preceded by the indicies being in centering/du - a high risk period. News or otherwise, there's no need to predict and bet during this period. By the time news hit, there was already a BO of yesterday's carryover channel (dotted red upward slope) and a return move with vdu. The BO of vdu on a reversal bar (gold) was with volume and it was on to p2. The solid red trendline as well as the red dotted channel were drawn in advance before the day started. Knowing the news is nice but the charts are good enough.

[roztom 10]

Well, I always assume (right or wrong) that the smart money knows the news and they act accordingly... While a fundamental event can impact the market or a report, etc... I stick with the weegie board...

 

The fact the market failed and I did not ring the register on my long position from below is the way the cookie crumbles... We all certainly discussed the development of the market, the flag, what it was doing, what it needed to do and what a failure would look like...

 

This is not a counter-point to anything written here...

 

My technicals were in neutral and then I had a sell... There were also warning signs with the pennent..it went too wide and also a false breakout at at 1168.50 and then a double top there...that was it... When we started breaking down I had to make a decision...grab some points or let it break & see if it held the open... I suspected it was the flush and that we would rally after the cash close, which we did...

 

To me all this was long liquidation which N & I discussed earlier... That is the nature of the beast..

 

Today was a very good day. Structurally it was very tradable.. I did not take the short...

 

As usual I will be reviewing my trades this weekend and continue my research... I am still working on exit strategies/trade management.. to me they are much more difficult than entries.. I do replay so I can see if my realtime interpretation still stands up after the fact.

I also look to see if there was ambiguity or conflict and want to be sure I did not ignore what the market was saying because of my position...

 

On this specific trade I followed my plan... if the structure failed I would get taken out of my position... it failed... I got taken out... Not the ending I had hoped for but it was certianly part of the possibilities... as discussed..

[steve46 12]

I'm not sure what your point is Stevie. Are you crowing about your knowing there was news coming out of Europe at noon that might affect US equities? So you made a bet based on a prediction and you got paid off. What's the big deal? You act like you're new to it.

 

I didn't know about the news but it was preceded by the indicies being in centering/du - a high risk period. News or otherwise, there's no need to predict and bet during this period. By the time news hit, there was already a BO of yesterday's carryover channel (dotted red upward slope) and a return move with vdu. The BO of vdu on a reversal bar (gold) was with volume and it was on to p2. The solid red trendline as well as the red dotted channel were drawn in advance before the day started. Knowing the news is nice but the charts are good enough.

 

 

Nope, no crowing necessary, this isn't a big deal for me....its a day thats all

 

Basically I have two points to make....ONE, if you know now to trade events, you can pick up some easy money....you have to have an approach that works and then a way to get on board....I was taught to do it....and what I am saying is that the game is played on several levels....YOU don't have to want to play it that way....I choose to.

 

Item 2.....I know of two methods (that really work well) to "read" a market like the S&P....you can learn to read the tape (if you can find someone to show you) OR you can figure out that if you simpy read the "price action" on a minute or sub minute scale...if you try it, what you are seeing is actually a significant percentage of the order flow....in fact you are seeing enough of the order flow to make it possible to determine whether the bid holds (and when it doesn't)....Actually I have already posted in pretty good detail (in this thread) what it is that you look for in order to find a favorable entry...like all valuable skills it takes time and effort, but it works...I do it every day.

 

Bottom line, its a day like any other, except that I was prepared to trade this event....and based on the posts, I didn't see anyone else "on it". From my perspective its as though someone dropped money on the sidewalk and I walked up and saw it there.....am I gonna pick it up...yep

Edited March 10, 2012 by steve46

[gosu 10]

I call it free money - a practically risk-free trade. You have to be present and TAKE IT when it is being offered, and as you point out, you have to be able to see that it is there being offered in the first place. With regard to the seeing part, it is aptly described by the old saying, "There is more than one way to skin a cat."

 

One last thing about the free money part: it's a sure-fire loss on the opposite side. That is to say, a risk-free trade is at the same time an extremely risky trade for unskilled participants. A few characteristics of unskilled participants: (1) they predict and bet; (2) they exit on stops; (3) they never reverse.