Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[steve46 12]

Negotiator

 

I think the general concept of supply and demand (which is what my blue nodes represent) is understandable....as posted previously (on this thread) those nodes become important when price tests one of them, AND that test coincides with a "time based pivot" or a distribution extreme...by all means folks if the comments and charts are not helpful it is easy for me to stop posting...

 

Good luck folks

[steve46 12]

Steve: How do you manage this last position? Do you just let it rotate until it gets to your next area - there will certainly be reversal patterns along the way? DO you shift to a longer timeframe and look to major swings to define your trend, and pull the microscope out,etc?

 

Couple of ways to do this Tom, one of them is to look at my chart (any of them for the darker blue rectangles)....they appear at intervals and represent areas of concentrated liquidity and/or previous order imbalance....Today's charts show them at 68, 69, 71 and again at 73

 

I would be holding for a test of 73 today...and of course who knows, in a news driven market especially this week when private debt holders are asked to participate in a swap process...if that doesn't go smoothly by Wednesday/Thurs we could see another move down...

 

More specifically Tom, I watch the rotations but do not make assumptions about the strength of the corrections....its just too stresssful...once I get my primary profit in the bank the rest is speculation and I am willing to let it run either way....I have been on both sides of this (with my own money and with the banks) and it is much easier to watch it and just let go of the tension.

 

Today's non manufacturing PMI number has a volatile history...I am expecting a slight retrace off the open on this number....Factory orders are easier to anticipate and should smooth out the results somewhat. Overall I expect a positive uptrending market starting about an hour after the open. We'll see if I am right pretty soon. On the plus side if we get a big positive number we will probably see another test of the previous high at 77

 

If it works out great, if not there is always another one coming along.

 

I hope this helps

 

Best of luck today

Edited March 5, 2012 by steve46

[roztom 10]

Couple of ways to do this Tom, one of them is to look at my chart (any of them for the darker blue rectangles)....they appear at intervals and represent areas of concentrated liquidity and/or previous order imbalance....Today's charts show them at 68, 69, 71 and again at 73

 

I would be holding for a test of 73 today...and of course who knows, in a news driven market especially this week when private debt holders are asked to participate in a swap process...if that doesn't go smoothly by Wednesday/Thurs we could see another move down...

 

More specifically Tom, I watch the rotations but do not make assumptions about the strength of the corrections....its just too stresssful...once I get my primary profit in the bank the rest is speculation and I am willing to let it run either way....I have been on both sides of this (with my own money and with the banks) and it is much easier to watch it and just let go of the tension.

 

If it works out great, if not there is always another one coming along.

 

I hope this helps

 

Best of luck today

 

Speaking of letting it run..how is that last position managed? Since you will see reversal patterns ... I am asking about the money mgt side of it or it is time-based, or a larger timeframe structure, or B/E and ride to the close or target if there is no majior reversal etc. ?

 

Thanks

[TheNegotiator 13]

Negotiator

 

I think the general concept of supply and demand (which is what my blue nodes represent) is understandable....as posted previously (on this thread) those nodes become important when price tests one of them, AND that test coincides with a "time based pivot" or a distribution extreme...by all means folks if the comments and charts are not helpful it is easy for me to stop posting...

 

Good luck folks

 

That's very true steve. However, I was just pointing out it might be a little more helpful to annotate your charts or show somehow at least in some how you decided on your "nodes". This is what I try to do so that where I am getting my areas from is transparent to all readers if possible.

[joshdance 10]

Unfortunately steve, a chart with so many lines packed on it like that means absolutely nothing to anyone unless they have seen a methodology.

 

Anyway, an idea to share with you today is a simple test of the lower end of the current channel we appear to be in. The lower channel support lines up nicely with distinct volume areas on the current balance profile and the overnight low has demonstrated an interest there too. I think there's every chance of a test there RTH, not to say it will turn there, just that what happens is important. Hold and a reverse to test higher prices again could be on, fail and the lower volume development in the current balance profile could be tested.

 

 

Overnight the market has already tested 60.50, which as your chart shows is a nice low volume area on the lower end of this upper balance area, which happens to be resembling a nice bell. The market has bought this, but a test lower again in RTH may happen and from there who knows.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Overnight the market has already tested 60.50, which as your chart shows is a nice low volume area on the lower end of this upper balance area, which happens to be resembling a nice bell. The market has bought this, but a test lower again in RTH may happen and from there who knows.

 

True, true. Yet each previous test has occurred in RTH. It could be that it double taps it or that it has been and gone. Who knows for sure. What it is looking like will be interesting is whether the market takes out or fails at the area between 68-69.50 and possibly 71. If it fails, there's every chance of an RTH test which could be important.

 

Edit:*Each previous test of 'channel' support

[joshdance 10]

Not showing any participation from OTF yet ... opened within range and pivoting around y-low right now. The market may need to wait for the ISM number at 10am.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not too much to get excited about so far heading into the 10am releases. Factory order exp -1.5% prev +1.1% and ISM Non-Manufacturing is exp 56.2 prev 56.8. Fed's Fisher and then Evans talk at 12pm & 2pm respectively.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There's also a gap close @62.50 from 2/29.

[joshdance 10]

Big order flow shift about 2 mins ago.. And attached is a cash 30m chart, showing good location for a buy if current activity supports it. Don't know if it will continue, certainly needs to breach 65 and into 69s with aggressiveness to have a shot at getting above 71s.

 

Depends on news coming up here of course.

[TheNegotiator 13]

57.3 fact ord -1.0% fact orders, also greek finance minister comments coming out...

[joshdance 10]

Just bought 59.75, so far a good reaction off of the shown local POC. Good volume support and mini double bottom low at 59.25. It coincides with an SPX trendline as well that many may be watching, though that's only secondary confluence.

[TheNegotiator 13]

It looks like we have a VPOC shift down now too. I have to say though that I would have hoped for a better reaction. If strong buying doesn't enter soon, this could fall through the level to test next at 56.75 area. Mid and VWAP in the 63.25 area which showed support earlier.

[joshdance 10]

Well, I just bailed at BE -- will have to just wait now and see if I bailed at exactly the wrong time, or if it was a good exit.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, I just bailed at BE -- will have to just wait now and see if I bailed at exactly the wrong time, or if it was a good exit.

 

if you bailed for the right reasons, it makes no difference whether relative to the market it was right or wrong.

[roztom 10]

Hi: I jst crawled out from the bunker..got long this morning after the report... got popped..

 

Had to leave the screen & missed down draft... I got short on a retracement to 62.00 area..

am holding & did not scale at my initial target... 58.50... I might regret it but I am looking for a test of the low down there at 57.00 area and a target CLVN 52.50...

 

Good trading all..

[joshdance 10]

if you bailed for the right reasons, it makes no difference whether relative to the market it was right or wrong.

 

I see where you're going, but ultimately I want my "right" and "wrong" to be aligned with what the market does, no?

[sdoma 10]

I see where you're going, but ultimately I want my "right" and "wrong" to be aligned with what the market does, no?

 

Of course, but that is not the issue. If what you did was correct according to your method, then you should look at it as having acted correctly. The above quoted statement tells me that, in some way, you would still regard your decision as "wrong" if the market moved in your direction.

 

It may or may not be wrong, but that would be determined over time and then would require a modification of your plan. No matter how well your plan is constructed or how good you are, you will have losers.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I see where you're going, but ultimately I want my "right" and "wrong" to be aligned with what the market does, no?

 

Yes. But you won't always be right anyway. If you know that more often than not, if a market does x then does y, then you have to trade based on x. You can only know that y recurred when it has happened. But you can only save yourself from the loss before it happens.

 

I was actually in a very similar position at 59.50. I was looking for 63 area, but when it came down from 62.50 and then retested to 62.00 then 62.75, I took it off at 61.75 just before the 3rd high. The reason being was I felt it had tested the 63.25 "area" at 62.50 and other stuff was negatively effecting ES(NQ I think at the time plus 6E had reversed too). The price action wasn't great either, but then it did pop a few ticks before moving down. I could have been wrong in that it might have gone all the way back up, but the decision I made was to exit and it was for good reason imho. The important thing to recognise is that it is better to be decisive than have the market force you into a decision.

[roztom 10]

JOsh: YOu know I wrestle with the hindsight issue all the time because I do recognize market behavior that sometimes means one thing in the context of it's timeframe but nothing to the overall trend.. It is this seperating out what is happening at the time vs after more data is on the screen and then acting appropriately.

 

With descretionary trading I think it can be much more difficult especially since perception can shift quickly - once again the potential to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest...

 

I always see things so clearly in hindsight.. but I have to remeber to only hold myself accountable for what I do in the present..

 

I am trying to build more structure in what I do since I can easily get caught up in a micro trend and abandon a good trade location... On the other hand, I have to be willing to allow more retracement back against me if I am stretching out my timeframe..if that makes sense..

 

Today is an example of my staying short and not scaling out near the current LOD and putting the position back out again..I'm just holding my short..

 

Josh: I saw where you got long... what was interesting is that was where I should have been covering/scaling down at 58.50 - 59.00 area.

 

I then had another short set up on the retracement: SO what did I accomplih by NOT scaling? I left 3.5 pts per contract on the table and I could have put them back out again...

and still held my original position still short...

 

Anyway..that's my story ...

[joshdance 10]

sdoma, N, roztom -- good stuff, thanks for the reminders.

 

On a market note, we have acceptance lower. However, the move below 59 failed to produce enough sellers to take it to new lows. I will remain bearish until we can get decisively above 61. Given the volume and low range so far, I do not expect miracles or excitement for the rest of today, and given that there is no scheduled news tomorrow, may be boring until Wednesday.

[joshdance 10]

sellers found at top of balance at 61, but just now 59 held, could be considered a failed auction below value and the IB low, so i'm taking a 59.75 long, 58.75 stop on this .. higher lows and good positioning if it breaks out north

[roztom 10]

sellers found at top of balance at 61, but just now 59 held, could be considered a failed auction below value and the IB low, so i'm taking a 59.75 long, 58.75 stop on this .. higher lows and good positioning if it breaks out north

 

I'm suprised they left the 61.25...I would think they would potentially get some paper up there... 63.00 is a CHVN and also todays profile LVN.. I have a micro LVN @ 61.50..

[joshdance 10]

sellers found at top of balance at 61, but just now 59 held, could be considered a failed auction below value and the IB low, so i'm taking a 59.75 long, 58.75 stop on this .. higher lows and good positioning if it breaks out north

 

Still long, added 1 at 61.25 earlier, average is 60.50 -- I'm targeting 67 and 68.

Rationale is that it broke above the balance area high at 61, and then it was just a VPOC test. Time of day, no gap fill, all pointed to up since it bottomed out earlier. Just hoping we will see some continuation here.

 

67 will be just below the IB high, and 68 will be just below yesterday's VPOC which is naked still so far, and all of that below Friday's close of 68.75.

[joshdance 10]

Should add that the VPOC target of 68 is actually more because it's last WEEK'S VPOC -- MWF last week had about the same price, and it's the mode of this entire upper distribution which goes from 60 or so to 77. And, it's right at the Sunday open just before the move down overnight.

 

EDIT: just now (3:17) added 1 @ 63.25, seems like a logical add point. But, will reduce it at 62.00 if it retraces further.

Edited March 5, 2012 by joshdance