Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

  steve46 said:

I guess the first thing to say is that I don't consider leaving money on the table a particularly significant problem, IF you have a viable trading plan and you see the possibility for REALISTIC improvement....I leave money on the table every day...I view it as inevitable

 

What I think IS realistic and attainable, is for traders to improve their ability to accurately visualize profit targets, while leaving a "piece" of their original position in place....by "piece" I mean (for retail traders) at least 2 contracts....this solution it seems to me, permits the trader to take one more scale out at whatever price he/she thinks is the maximum favorable exursion for the trade (in that time period), leaving at least one contract in place in case they are wrong and the market displays continuation...I tell my students that this provides a good compromise between risk and reward on an intraday basis. Historically when volatility is low, one might argue that it doesn't add much, but clearly when volatility ramps up, this provides a significant boost to longer term profitability...

 

I do the same thing in a slightly different way when I establish a long term options position and then trade around it....unfortunately this solution is capital intensive and requires knowledge of options greeks...for those reasons alone, it is probably not a realistic approach for the average retail trader.

 

Thanks Steve that makes sense.. It isn't the $ on the table it is the breakdown of the execution of the plan... As far as leaving something on in case there is expansion that is a secondary item I am trying to sort out...

 

One of the items I've been revisiting without resolution is the runner.. and how to manage it.. Thursday last week when we had that explosive upmove is a great example... I took my scales on the way up - fine but that was just before the aggressive Range Extension... then I had to wait all day for a rotation to get back in..All fine on that except I missed the meat of the day.

 

In addition as you know managing that runner is another issue.. Does one set the stop B/E and take it out at the close? Trail? etc... You know many of the traders I know just load up and scale quickly... they make up for the move they don't get by the volume they trade for a short high probability target...

 

After all CP comes in many different forms...

 

I hope we can discuss the variables to volume at short vs. longer targets with fewer lots...

 

I know you go for longer interday targets like I do. Any reason other than cost not to tighten the targets up to a primary initial target all in/ all out with more contracts?

 

Steve, what is your take on that..from your perspective?

[steve46 12]

The reason other than cost is that each process has its own history of performance in the S&P market...I can look back on that history and I know what the risk adjusted performance is likely to be for A) my options position, B) my intraday trades and C) my remainder position (if any)

 

One of the advantages of keeping good records is that you can determine which (if any) your strategies work best over the short or longer time frame. At this late date I also know which of my strategies is should be overweighted because of seasonal issues, some of which are (but not limited to) earnings, economic reports, seasonal issues like distributions, and tax considerations. For example if I have visibility I may try to maintain a longer term options position so that I profits are taxed as long term gains (using leaps). That kind of strategy has over the past couple of years, offered a nice benefit IF you have the skills to make it happen.

 

On the professional side, this is a thinking man/or woman's game, and to the extent that you plan ahead and put your ducks in a row, you stand to make signficantly more profit than just entering at A and hoping to get out with a few points profit at B on an intraday trade.

 

I mention it because some folks have the basics down and can go on to get the nuances in place, while many are still looking for a profitable basic trading plan...clearly folks have to start wherever they are and move forward from there...but this comment may give some idea of the level that skilled folks try to reach......(and of course not everyone wants, needs or aspires to go to those lengths).

 

Don't want to be impolite but I have a few chores to take care of, so I will have to pass of further comment for today.

 

Hope that helps.

Steve

Edited February 26, 2012 by steve46

[squishy 10]

  roztom said:

If anyone has dealt with this type of thing and has some suggestion on what worked for them then I'd appreciate it.. Fortunately I do enough things right most of the time and am CP but how many days can we afford to leave $ on the table for no reason but ourselves?

 

Studying "how the brain works" and it's limits have been a great help to me. The limits of working memory are very real. Trying to keep any more than 4 - 6 items "top of mind" is humanly impossible. "Mind Hacks" by Stafford and Wells is a good resource.

 

Also the writings of Kahneman and Tversky on how humans make decisions. "Priceless" by Poundstone is a good overview.

 

"I should have done this" thinking is an example of hindsight bias. All humans see the past much clearer than the future. In fact, a good mind trick is to prepare for the trading day not by asking "what do you think is going to happen?" but instead imagine you are at the End of the day and describing to yourself what happened.

 

Having a profit target in mind, or a position on, contributes to "confirmation bias" where you can see confirming evidence but tend to ignore contrary evidence. It can be mitigated by always writing down or imagining the opposite of your current position.

 

As a side note, I am very grateful to the contributors to this thread as it's helping me develop my trading plan. I'm a small lot, break-even trader, working on putting in my screen time and developing my own trading. I find it very helpful reviewing the trading day "through your eyes".

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom,

 

Re:Friday's trade, "Don't be a dick for a tick" is engrained on my mind. I've said it before elsewhere and I'll say it again here. The closer the market gets to your profit target(as long as you will take profit) the more at risk your position is. When it gets to 'nearly there' by a tick or two, I'll either look to exit or if I believe there's more in it, I'll revise my target to the next level(and of course monitor it to see whether a push further is that or just a technical completion of the move). You can see that happen fairly frequently. Market gets near to exit, market stops just before exit, then market either A: turns around and rotates back or B: retests trend of the move and proceeds to blast through to the next level. I kind of like the way "Buzzy" Schwartz fanned out his orders around his profit targets although I have never really used it myself. But the premise being that you can never be certain where exactly a market will turn from. Anyway.

 

I have a few suggestions on the fatigue issue.

 

1-Make yourself take a break. Truckers have to by law, why shouldn't traders too? When you do take a break, make sure you do something to 'reset' yourself and wake yourself up a little. Taking a stroll around the block for 10mins is probably good enough. You have to weigh the benefits of recharging against missing some of the story and the possibility of missing a trade.

 

2-Diet and exercise. Not anything major. Just not eating the wrong types of food during the trading day and doing some kind of fitness exercises. I don't know if this is something you do already, so it's just a suggestion.

 

3-Self awareness. Associations is simple psychological technique where you can create an almost automatic response to certain situations. If x=true, do y kinda thing. Could be if you are getting fatigued you always go for a 10 min stroll around the block. Or it could be you just put on your favourite song every time. Whatever it is, the recognition is key along with doing something to break the cycle early.

 

These are only suggestions obviously and you have to do whatever works for you. Hope something helps a little.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So you can have a quick look at my chart, I haven't annotated much.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

So far we've tested the overnight vpoc(it built heavily here which is why I was interested- plus the earlier it is in the rth session, the more i weight it). Then, we tested what was 2/22 low and the volume 'base' of the test lower the following day. Now we're pushing higher post eco release(chart I did prior to release btw)

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Little observation for anyone who's interested:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well it had a flirt with the 65.75(65.50) as a high but blew through it to test Friday's high. If we make new highs again, then ask the question "Are we expanding the current balance range, or are we breaking out?"

 

My mind would be on a break considering how it's moved so far, but we'll have to see when/if it does break. Main target above is going to be around the 1375 mark for now if it does go.

[joshdance 10]

About another 1.25 or 1.75 above the current high, and we will hit the SPX high of 1270.58, hit last year, and highest high of last 3.5 years. Also it corresponds (no surprise to the low volume area of this TPO-based SPX profile.

 

 

02.27.2012-12.35.05 - joshtrader's library

 

N, TL is telling me "Upload failed due to failure writing temporary file." when trying to upload an image from a URL. Do you get this too?

[TheNegotiator 13]

No i dont get that message josh. What do you do? Click manage attachments then add the file and click upload?

[joshdance 10]

  TheNegotiator said:

No i dont get that message josh. What do you do? Click manage attachments then add the file and click upload?

 

 

I upload the image to a server, then copy that URL and paste it into the box on the attachments window ("upload file from a URL"), and then click upload. I can upload with a locally saved file, but not a remote file from a URL.

[TheNegotiator 13]

  joshdance said:

I upload the image to a server, then copy that URL and paste it into the box on the attachments window ("upload file from a URL"), and then click upload. I can upload with a locally saved file, but not a remote file from a URL.

 

Have you tried it with urls other than your screencast library?

[joshdance 10]

Acceptance of higher prices..

[joshdance 10]

  TheNegotiator said:

Have you tried it with urls other than your screencast library?

 

 

 

Just tried it with a completely different site and image, and still same result.

[agentzero82 10]

Hello guys, this is my vision ....... I sold two contracts 1368.25 ...

[steve46 12]

This post for Roztom regarding "capturing the day's range"

 

Today by coincidence we got a day that shows how the time based pivots work. After the open (assuming you got on board) the scale outs are the red arrows

 

On my daily worksheet, the previous open is 64.75, the previous high at 67.50....the weekly high (where I would be looking next to scale is only a tick further up the road at 67.75

 

The high of the day so far is showing on my 120 min chart (and is not displayed on my worksheet)

 

I have learned to think in these terms because it works...to put it plainly...Today I ran out of bullets at 67.50 I did not have the chance to scale out at the top...however if you look at the bottom band on the attached chart you can see that I have a 120 min chart to refer to and it shows the previous high pretty clearly...

 

To me it seems reasonable to assume that other like minded participants are going to move the market in these increments. As I have said before I don't expect to get it all (I never have) but because I have seen this many times over the years, it makes sense to use (time based pivots) prices as possible targets.

Edited February 27, 2012 by steve46

[agentzero82 10]

perchè non riesco a scrivere post?!

[TheNegotiator 13]

  agentzero82 said:

perchè non riesco a scrivere post?!

 

New members need moderating for their first few posts.

 

As far as your vision goes though, am I right in saying you have a 24hr session chart using 15k contract periodicity and you are using a MACD on it?

 

edit:sry 150k

Edited February 27, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

  joshdance said:

Just tried it with a completely different site and image, and still same result.

 

Do you get the same result in different browsers?

[agentzero82 10]

  TheNegotiator said:

New members need moderating for their first few posts.

 

As far as your vision goes though, am I right in saying you have a 24hr session chart using 15k contract periodicity and you are using a MACD on it?

 

edit:sry 150k

 

is not good ..?...usually I get good directions ...

[steve46 12]

  agentzero82 said:

perchè non riesco a scrivere post?!

 

nuovi membri non possono affiggere immediatamente spiacente

 

(hope that makes it clear)

[agentzero82 10]

so sorry .... I'm new and I write the translator ... please, I posted the link of regoleù?

[TheNegotiator 13]

  agentzero82 said:

is not good ..?...usually I get good directions ...

 

Well, the overnight volume is considerably lower than the primary session. In the overnight session, you might at most get 2 x 150k bars in the whole session. The primary session which is considerably shorter you might get 7-12 say. Basically, overnight you'll likely get a bigger range per bar and this could skew your MACD averages.

[agentzero82 10]

  TheNegotiator said:

Well, the overnight volume is considerably lower than the primary session. In the overnight session, you might at most get 2 x 150k bars in the whole session. The primary session which is considerably shorter you might get 7-12 say. Basically, overnight you'll likely get a bigger range per bar and this could skew your MACD averages.

 

ok ... good reasoning .... solutions?

[TheNegotiator 13]

  agentzero82 said:

ok...buon ragionamento....soluzioni?

 

Okay, just so you know, going forward you need to post in English.

 

I would suggest first you need to work out what you are looking for. If you know that, then perhaps we can identify a way of charting it.