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Trade I didn't take this morning:

 

I want to post this with the reason behind why this was a Legit setup. I do not always take these..since I am descretionary and I prefer to take them around a report where there might be more participation and follow through, etc.. not a rigid rule but I am descretionary soo coffe first.. :)

 

Globex IBH 64.50 and Yest high just below, etc...

 

Long 7:34ish @ 65.00 ish... the above were some of the support for the trade..one of the things against it was no volume/delta. also GBX S/L @ 63.75 which miight get ticked so risk below that if we don't get traction. Also Open not too far off, etc.

 

So I just watch.. possible 67.50 objective..just a scalp and NOT taken..

 

As 007 said "Stirred Not Taken." :cool:

Edited by roztom

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BTW: I'd thought I'd throw in an old trading saying I first heard from CBOT Ag traders for your amusement: :haha: "Got a Hunch, Bet a Bunch."

 

Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny :(

 

Considering the strength of yesterday I would suspect that there might be a push beyond 1365.75 current RTH high. The ETH high is 69.50. For this to happen, I'd want a reaction at 59.00, 60.75, 62.50, 64.00 or 65.75 depending on where and how we open. Like Tom said, we have a mich(f) and then new home sales early on in the session so it's possible we could need to see those before going for it. On the other hand, it could retrace somewhat although if this is the case, I would reckon it'll have a few of those longs from yesterday sitting uncomfortably. Interesting how crude oil broke higher yesterday too. A retrace through 108.00 towards 107.00(broadly speaking) might drag on ES, but who knows for certain. It's worth noting anyway. Euro is strong too at the mo. Possibly if it remains so today, they'll want to test 1.3500 I'm thinking.

 

Anyway, I here's a number of charts to explain :)

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27567&stc=1&d=1330092536

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27566&stc=1&d=1330092536

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27565&stc=1&d=1330092536

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27564&stc=1&d=1330092536

2012-02-24_4.thumb.jpg.86b6bc6aaaddc79fa5ecbe335dafa5e4.jpg

2012-02-24_3.jpg.b2c5675dcd72b9e4f0ebabfe4c862846.jpg

2012-02-24_2.jpg.90d7d219eaec2f0fafd0d7e9254f1c07.jpg

2012-02-24.thumb.jpg.bf9fd4f9caadc81d3c4e64430e394323.jpg

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N: Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny

 

Well, I posted it from a nostolgic point of view for traders here who haven't been exposed to Floor Traders... this just one of hte quips they said to each other..

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This week and Friday of last week really developed the 59s. In those four days (not counting Monday this week) we have 3 VPOCs right next to each other in 59.25, 59.50, and 59.75. Particularly yesterday the value really built up there before it moved higher. I would not be surprised to see 59s again today before moving up, if the market is to move up today.

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N: Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny

 

Well, I posted it from a nostolgic point of view for traders here who haven't been exposed to Floor Traders... this just one of hte quips they said to each other..

 

Lol, yeah I know :)

 

This week and Friday of last week really developed the 59s. In those four days (not counting Monday this week) we have 3 VPOCs right next to each other in 59.25, 59.50, and 59.75. Particularly yesterday the value really built up there before it moved higher. I would not be surprised to see 59s again today before moving up, if the market is to move up today.

 

Very true, although given that we closed on the highs, it's possible that the breakout has already begun(which originated from the 59's).

 

The other thing to note here again is just how small the o/n range is at 6.25 pts again with vol little over 200k right now.

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So far, not such a convincing open and right on the upper end of 4-day balance. Not too surprising given small o/n range and figs around 10am(9:55am for mich). What it does mean is that there could potentially be a good move later on :) (maybe)

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Thumb Twiddle..

 

I only have had one decent setup this morning and unfortunately it was in front of the reports.. @ 64.00 so what was the point & with the open Close up above 66.50 I didn't see the point... also a secondary entry at 65.00 still no point...

 

So I'm waiting for a rotation which may take all day or not at all... 70 - 72 ish up above so it could be worthwhile .. longs don't seem to be concerned at the moment -sellers may have left the building.. for now

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Thumb Twiddle..

 

I only have had one decent setup this morning and unfortunately it was in front of the reports.. @ 64.00 so what was the point & with the open Close up above 66.50 I didn't see the point... also a secondary entry at 65.00 still no point...

 

So I'm waiting for a rotation which may take all day or not at all... 70 - 72 ish up above so it could be worthwhile .. longs don't seem to be concerned at the moment -sellers may have left the building.. for now

 

I took it just above the lows on that action at 63's ahead of the week open/overnight low. Felt it was worth the risk as wasn't looking like we were going to get an exciting day- of course that could change. Out now (at 65.50)as suspected something was going on. NQ wasn't having it plus funny guy @ 1.3480 offer in 6E. Still could go later. I think if the high is in, it's bad news for bulls and there's more of a chance to correct. Failed break = strong reversal (often)

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Remember, if it takes the low we have 60.75 and 59.00 as possible strong support. No guarantees but I'd think there might be at least a few buyers around those levels. Also, take a look at how balanced the profile is so far. It's certainly conceivable we get a neutral with extension either side of the IB. Just a thought.

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I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Edit: I dumped it just after this post...watching...

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I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Hmm yeah I don't know. I'm on the sidelines for now as I want to see what happens on these moves lower in 6E and CL. There's some support below, but on a day which has so far shown very little activity, I'd be loathed to get taken for a large stop. Anyway, anything can happen. It's also quite possible given lack of drive, 'locals' could try to take some stops (or weak longs) out on a test lower.

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I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Edit: I dumped it just after this post...watching...

 

Ah, fair play. I always say that scratching is something to avoid at all cost before you take the trade, but if the market then tells you different when you're in it, there's no shame in bailing.

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Minding the Store here: Went long again at 64.00 no problem for me... afer giving up a tick on the previous 64.00..

 

If we can come out of this range then 70''s are possible as previously posted... I am keeping short leashes on these since we are currently in a range but currently the bias is still North..:2c:

 

Also something to note and maybe take a look at your clock and the range expansion on the 1/2 hours...

 

 

Steve: Is there anything to this?.

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Ah, fair play. I always say that scratching is something to avoid at all cost before you take the trade, but if the market then tells you different when you're in it, there's no shame in bailing.

 

N: Not sure if I read this right...avoiding a scratch before a trade.. :confused:?

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I want to update my 64.00 long just for a little strategy... There is a close at 66.50 that has not been closed... missed it by 1 tick..I "suspect" we will test the current HOD 66.25 and possibly 1 tick it..so I am targeting a scale there for 2.25 pts of course might take all day or never to get there..

 

Also if we can clear this congestion I "think" 70.75 area might be possible..again this may be a tough day if we can't move out of here .. :2c:

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