Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

The funny thing about trading "systems" (as you said ATMs), is that people are always trying to SELL them.... hmmm, seems a bit strange doesn't it? If I had an ATM, I wouldn't sell it...

 

Neither would I... I suspect most system/room vendors do not make $ trading and use the income stream to support their habit... There are some out there..we both probably know a few but the majority are sellling "Fantasy Island." After all if you can be profitable doing this you creat FInancial Independance..that is a serious goal just like someone selling the FOuntain of Youth.. I bet that was a big seller in the day...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

I've accepted the fact for me that this is a labor-intensive business and I deal with the grind by rest, nutrition, exercise, and periodic breaks. The thing that keeps me going is that I don't trade for myself.

 

There is "free" money available but I have to be there and always ready to take it when it presents itself. I haven't figured out how to teach a program let alone another person to do that (yet).

 

I actually did create profitable systems years ago..they were swing trading in the S&P and also currency spreads primarily... Currencies tend to trend so they were good for spread trading..and longer-term stuff -today we have pairs... I can't handle having any position open overnight which is why I daytrade... I spent years with positions held overnight - didn't sleep well..had quote machine in the bedroom..

a real winner with the wife... :helloooo:

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

I actually did create profitable systems years ago..they were swing trading in the S&P and also currency spreads primarily... Currencies tend to trend so they were good for spread trading..and longer-term stuff -today we have pairs... I can't handle having any position open overnight which is why I daytrade... I spent years with positions held overnight - didn't sleep well..had quote machine in the bedroom..

a real winner with the wife... :helloooo:

 

Tom

 

I tend to get the same way about overnight positions - being obsessive about checking on it. I've gotten much better about it by limiting it to a small account for my 4 year old nephew who doesn't know that his uncle is working to make him a millionaire by the time he goes off to college. I like the mindset of being "always in" during the week even if it's just 1 contract as it keeps my head in the game and keeps me sharp. Knowing the ST position at all times gives me a better read on the opens for the intraday trading.

[joshdance 10]

gosu, what's up with the chart? Any explanation or just a chart-by-chart market update? Just curious, keep posting them if you like but I keep expecting to see some explanation of your chart. Am interested as usual.

[roztom 10]

I tend to get the same way about overnight positions - being obsessive about checking on it. I've gotten much better about it by limiting it to a small account for my 4 year old nephew who doesn't know that his uncle is working to make him a millionaire by the time he goes off to college. I like the mindset of being "always in" during the week even if it's just 1 contract as it keeps my head in the game and keeps me sharp. Knowing the ST position at all times gives me a better read on the opens for the intraday trading.

 

You have a strong stomach lining..I even have a hard time holding ETF's..I just can't be efficent enough with the typical buy & hold strategies... I have used MP/VP to swing trade ETF's but it was too much work and there is no leverage typically...

 

I like the old ES... I have probably traded almost everything out there that has volume at one time or another but ES is fine..it could be jelly beans if there is a market for it...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

gosu, what's up with the chart? Any explanation or just a chart-by-chart market update? Just curious, keep posting them if you like but I keep expecting to see some explanation of your chart. Am interested as usual.

 

sorry josh, didnt have time to explain...but the lines are there for you to see..they don't come with the data...i put them there in advance.....i have a long channel in dotted red and a couple of trend lines inside the channel....also the horizontal channel....there is one down sloping line right before a teeny du bar...the bo of the teeny bar was telegraphed by the downsloping line...since nq is still outside of this morning's bo, the trend is long and the retrace midday has been a lateral across the red channel..."left to right" for the Hershey folk.s

[roztom 10]

NO Long But: I just kicked out a little buy signal at 14;06 cst @ 1350.00 just FYI..I did not act on it... CLVN @ 52.50 and eventhough we might get there we haven't taken the stops below..now no stops taken equals strength..probably but if we don't move up I expect the stops to get taken so a place to watch but not participate, IMHO

 

NO risk/reward in that one but I do enjoy seeing if I can read it right... No Edge/NO Trade

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIT: I did take a long: and already scratched it . made a tick...bought my Clearing firm a Happy Meal...

 

We rotated to CHVN 1348.50 & MicroLVN 1348.25 a MLVN on the Profile from NFP: Josh So there is a notch on the MicroProfile@ 48.50 alignment - to me...

 

1349.25... scratched... basically.. Why...I wanted to see more Delta and it still might work for a scalp but that was enough for me...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited February 9, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Thanks gosu...

 

As for this market today, predictably choppy this afternoon, let's see if it offers any reasonable opportunities in the last 45 minutes.

[gosu 10]

Thanks gosu...

 

As for this market today, predictably choppy this afternoon, let's see if it offers any reasonable opportunities in the last 45 minutes.

 

you're welcome. as for "choppy," that's what happens in a lateral. my monitoring for the close is the same as it was for the overall day...since nq is leading, the bo to newer highs is less important than the bo of es and ym of the ON high, as that is the missing piece so far today. now if nq fbo's on this morning's bo before es and ym bo above ON, that would be the "surprise" move...which is to say, i would look to buy the dip on the leader (nq) until either the fbo or bo of es and ym...the question is what happens on a bo of ON by es and ym....will it sustain?...i'll be watching closely for a fbo on those for sure...a bo and fbo on es and ym followed by a fbo on nq signals a short...since there is little time left on the day, it's possible we'll be left hanging without a conclusion.....there is always tomorrow, however...

[roztom 10]

Thanks gosu...

 

As for this market today, predictably choppy this afternoon, let's see if it offers any reasonable opportunities in the last 45 minutes.

 

I did take a long: and already scratched it . made a tick...bought my Clearing firm a Happy Meal...

 

We rotated to CHVN 1348.50 & MicroLVN 1348.25 a MLVN on the Profile from NFP: Josh So there is a notch on the MicroProfile@ 48.50 alignment - to me...

 

1349.25... scratched... basically.. Why...I wanted to see more Delta and it still might work for a scalp but that was enough for me...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

last one for the day....

[roztom 10]

last one for the day....

 

Are those Fib Fan lines or are you basically crossing channels? Tx Tom

[gosu 10]

Are those Fib Fan lines or are you basically crossing channels? Tx Tom

 

channels...i usually have an idea which are too steep so i don't bother with the left side on most of them.

[roztom 10]

It works..When I only had a bar chart I plotted them by hand and drew channels all over the place.. It is how I started out... They work...

 

Then it is a matter of drilling down to the trigger and then entry timeframe...I don't know how you use it but I understand how & why it works...

 

Tx for explaining & showing it..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

The funny thing about trading "systems" (as you said ATMs), is that people are always trying to SELL them.... hmmm, seems a bit strange doesn't it? If I had an ATM, I wouldn't sell it...

 

I can think of one good reason from talking to a guy ages ago who does just that. System death. No system works forever and so if you are a relatively small trader(compared to a bank or hf say) you want to capitalise to the fullest while the system is working. It's not something I am especially enthusiastic about, but there are people who genuinely trade and sell their systems and they work to some extent. I wouldn't pay for one myself, but that's just me. There are obviously also a good number of scam artists who will charge a fortune for an automated system which just doesnt work. But if you haven't got the experience in something, how can you separate the wheat from the chaff?

 

Anyway, back to topic.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, for those who can use it effectively I think that's what's important, and I applaud them for being able to do so. I use the profile in a rather limited way really, but still do find it as a useful map, AS LONG AS it doesn't dictate WHICH WAY I trade. If I see the market approaching a peak volume price, for example as it just did at 41.25, do I immediately try to reverse and go long? Preferably not. Rather, look at what the market is doing, wait for it to prove itself and show its hand, and THEN go. It's like buying at PRIOR support before it shows itself to be current support in any meaningful way.

 

My profiles are today's, yesterday's, and any relevant to current market activity. So, I am profiling the area we have after 8:30am on Friday (post NFP) till now. For me personally, I find no relevance in the information that a back-adjusted futures contract shows that 50K contracts traded at price X, while only 40K traded at X+0.25, making the latter somehow more significant (different methods of back-adjusting, IMO, makes these past prices rather irrelevant, and certainly so when a very old profile is not built using tick data (which it's not as far as I know for anyone here, as the back-adjusted contract from IQFeed or another provider will only provide about 100 or so days of tick data). I also do not find profiling the 1400s or the 1200s to be useful for me right now, as I'm not taking any trades which I would ever look to those areas as a target. Others find this important, but I do not, but I also do not find many things important that others do, and I find many things important that others would never use. So, we go back to using tools that work best for us personally.

 

Context is about seeing what the market has done and where in regards to recent and long term activity. I do think it's important to look at longer term activity for the reason that I believe that the very biggest OTFs who move the market strongly(and those trying to jump on the train) are more interested in these kind of levels. However, in many cases I realise that the information can be seen using monthly, weekly etc high/lows. Think about it this way though. What information does an intraday volume profile tell you over say a 1000 volume candlestick chart? Not a great deal. Sure you can see exactly where the volume is, but if you look hard and the volume candles can give you a good idea too. Plus you can get an idea of how the market moved which you can't in a volume profile(although mp does a better job). So why bother with the profile at all then? Because it's a simple method of organising the data so it is easy to read visually. That to me applies to intraday, monthly, balance areas and whatever else.

 

If you use profiling or anything else for that matter to identify your areas(and obviously if this is the kind of way you trade at all), it is important to consider when you have a great area to trade that you either trade it immediately and are attentive in monitoring for activity -delta, TICK and blah whatever else 'helps' you(note a reversal type trade will often not show anything until it actually does reverse) or you recognise that you must give up ideal location and hope the market reverses enough to get you in at a decent price in order to 'see' if it turns and that you'll possibly miss a good few trades. The best reversal trades will hit a level and virtually never look back other than on a micro level(read:small volume charts 0-5000ish whatever your preference).

 

What I see/hear alot is that a trader does some great analysis but hesistates too much with no plan. This is often the beginning of an awful day. They then get in at a random price with activity or don't trade the opportunity at all. If they're in, the ES being the ES many times turns the screw on them. Even more so if the reversal doesn't hold. If they trade it or not, pyschology tends to then become an issue.

 

For me, if you see a trade, take it. The discipline is then to get out if it isn't working(and not to get all pissy if it subsequently does when you've scratched).

 

[roztom 10]

N: Welcome back to the fray... SOme interesting moments recently... and some excellent discourse and diverse opinions...

 

This morning is very interesting...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited February 10, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: Welcome back to the fray... SOme interesting moments recently... This morning is very interesting...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Thanks Tom. Yeah, it looks like there could be some political maneuvering going on in Greek parliament. Who knows really though. Whatever it has the market on edge. Either way today we'll probably dump or rocket. Could see this being a busy day not to get run over. Of course there's the chance that we'll also do nothing at all if traders want to just step back and see what happens over the weekend. It depends what inventory is being held probably and then what the media pipes up with. Look for news stories to comes out just when it's about to dump for example.

 

Anyway, will see how we develop into open and take it from there.

[roztom 10]

Thanks Tom. Yeah, it looks like there could be some political maneuvering going on in Greek parliament. Who knows really though. Whatever it has the market on edge. Either way today we'll probably dump or rocket. Could see this being a busy day not to get run over. Of course there's the chance that we'll also do nothing at all if traders want to just step back and see what happens over the weekend. It depends what inventory is being held probably and then what the media pipes up with. Look for news stories to comes out just when it's about to dump for example.

 

Anyway, will see how we develop into open and take it from there.

 

YEs..I took a walk on the wild side this morniong..took a long at 1336.75 and dumped it... lost a tick...I hadn't had my coffee yet.. Now with DVPOC dropping it would be a better trade..just for a scalp though before 7:30 cst Trade Balance so there might be short covering - strictly a hit & run scalp for me.. Not a position..

 

BTW: We have Bernanke talking at 11:30a cst so that will keep this on edge so after the open flurry we "might" get very quiet... no clue of course...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIT: Bernanke 11:30cst

[TheNegotiator 13]

Fyi, take a look at the current ETH profile for ES and plot Sunday's ETH weekly open and Monday's RTH weekly open.

[roztom 10]

My Basic SetUp:

 

Since I have had several requests to share my approach both on the forum and by PM I thought I would post a general overview of the tools I depend on most other than my intuition/brain/screen time, AND psycological alignment..etc.

 

Based on what I read here those of us discussing MP/VP profiles use them differently at least how the data is presented and weigh different market generated information differently. I'm sure we also use similar tools but configure and read them differently. All retail traders mostly use derivitaves of the same tools to one extent or the other. IMHO -

 

While it may seem to some readers that we debate what is best - we really don't. It is only point of view. Like likeing a specific car or sweater..if it fits wear it...

 

I use data going back to 10/2007 but my data is only related to the major swings for the Cumulative Nodes..Right now at the current level all I have to reference is the last time we were up here... It is really very similar to support & resistance but represented in Volume then Price...

 

At a Macro level I use 1 minute bars to create Daily Bars since I can get volumefor them - Can't have tick Data for that far back. This is accurate for my purposes since it is Macro

 

I believe Josh had posted he only uses Tick so his profiles are more accurate... (Not Taking Exception to His Rationale at All)

 

I also use a More Micro Profile: This encompases the current balance area... This one currently is from the breakout Day Friday NFP 2.2.12 This does use Tick Data It is more accurate as we zoom in..

 

Finally I work interday with the Daily Developing Profile the Microscope..using Tick Data This gives me the lay of the land for the Developing day , trade locations, stop clusters, etc..Developing LVN/HVN..

 

My Charts are Not a mish mash of lines but clusters at key areas.. I can trade without the clusters but I sure want to know where they are.. I think we have seen how they can be a very important part of the analysis.. The profile also has certian mechanical behavior and sign posts when you integrate what the past profiles represent and the key areas from that day and align with the longer term cumulative Nodes you get structure that you can lean on..then it is the realtime developing profile and the structure to take a position..

 

As far as predicting...they predict nothing.. Did any of you "predict" we would open today with a large gap down? I didn't.. I don't need to.. If you did...were you short from yesterday? Not me..slept like a baby... Isn't that the point of daytrading... "Be Here Now."

 

After that it is charts, Range Bar, Renko/Haginashi, Kitchen Sink aligned with that, some cycles, CCI Fast/Slow, and Delta: With Averaging..

 

and a Old School 15min Bar Chart..which really helps keep me from getting too myopic - seems to work really well for seeing where the rotations might go - it does align with the profile but for our RTH trading day 15m seems right for me... as opposed to 30m Profile... 15m shows the major Swing/H/L and also from a classical bar chart point of view you can see whether we have a triangle or flag developing or whatever..Also the power of a directional move and counter swings against it... If I am looking at short term bars I can get hung up in the minutae so the 15m lets me see the behavior of the OTF without the noise, etc

 

I thought I throw this out there.. for anyone who is interested.. I don't have any magic indicator - nothing..all this is in the public domain..

 

This is really all I need.. Then it is learning the behavior of each of these tools and seeing how they integrate to complement each other and align with your psycology..

 

Can you develop confidence in them and yourself to interpret what you see and execute - letting go of the need to be right..? That is really it..

 

I do not wait for confirmation on these - that is where screen time comes in... I really look where they are in relation to each other.. Often I put a position on and have to wait for the slower ones catch up to the faster ones.. but it is only confirmation after the fact. It is like driving a stick shift 1st gear, second, etc.. then if we get going I have my targets, scales, etc...if it doesn't get going and my short term stuff stops supporting the trade then I will bail...

 

Screen time allows me to recognize behavior and I don't get that from indicators since initially they lag so I have to read it and also use structure for the locations..so it is integrated. Top Down and Bottom Up...

 

Hope this makes some sense since typing is cryptic at best..

 

See - no secret sause... but I do wear a helmet..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's how the market traded so far ETH around some reference points. Will we tip over into the lower balance or hold and rally?

 

[joshdance 10]

What I see/hear alot is that a trader does some great analysis but hesistates too much with no plan. This is often the beginning of an awful day. They then get in at a random price with activity or don't trade the opportunity at all. If they're in, the ES being the ES many times turns the screw on them. Even more so if the reversal doesn't hold. If they trade it or not, pyschology tends to then become an issue.

 

For me, if you see a trade, take it. The discipline is then to get out if it isn't working(and not to get all pissy if it subsequently does when you've scratched).

 

 

Awesome post, particularly this part. Thanks N.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Since I have had several requests to share my approach both on the forum and by PM I thought I would post a general overview of the tools I depend on most other than my intuition/brain/screen time, AND psycological alignment..etc.

 

Firstly, let me point something out here. If anyone pm's anyone asking them for a magic potion or special formula on how to trade, they need to take a long hard look at themselves in the mirror. Information based on the technical method of volume/market profiling is abundent. That's why I hope we can talk about what is happening and look at all methods and their value(or lack thereof). I don't especially suggest posting in realtime is particularly useful but if anyone wants to do that, it's just fine so long as the reasons are properly explained. Information about how to use this or other methods is all about and if you don't have the commitment to find it, then there's not an awful lot of hope for you as a trader. Please understand this.

 

Once you understand the theory and principles of any method, you need to experience using it day to day for perhaps a good length of time to become 'at one' with it. Much of what is traded with this particular method is purely discretionary and based on experience. The framework of profiling helps to give you loaction and understanding of what might be going on(even after the event you can never truly say why something did happen). There are some things we notice time and time again which can then be developed into a strategy and there are ideas which we have to employ in each different situation. You can't just learn this from someone else. You have to see it and feel it.

 

If you want to know more about profiling, I suggest the best starting place is Dalton's books. Read them and come back. Then maybe in a few months re-read them.

 

Rant over.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw Tom, I wasn't having a go at you at all there.