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Tom, I think the tide has already shifted to the long side. If you watch delta, at 11:20-11:30EST look how the buying took over. One final wash at 11:43 and it was official, IMO, particularly as here delta stayed very positive -- in other words, on the wash, it was a good mix of market buying and market selling. IMO we have seen the low of the day. Buyers happy to buy this drift higher, no waiting for retracements. TICKs healthy, delta steadily rising. If they will buy with the volume they did at 12:19, at 1341, why would they not buy again there? Who knows, but that's my take. It's time for a pullback here somewhere I would think, but I do not see it yet.

 

Tx: Good take on the current market... IMHO... The Open needs to get taken out for continuation...up "if" it is going to happen we "might"have to wait to this afternoon.. I have unloaded most of my positions right here as posted "and I am sitting with 1/3 left... since I have no clue if the shorts will get squeezed here... Potential rotation down is in 40.00 ish area...lvn there and then - no clue what it will do... especially over lunch. If we just sit around 42.50 ish then we are accepting value ( I guess) and the shorts will have to worry...:confused:

 

Got to love this - like a lottery ticket :rofl:

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Hi Tom,

 

Sorry for my short hand...i've been playing to position for the ST p2 since last week on the nq...a hold more than one RTH session

 

this morning's reversal looked like a good start...and the retrace of it was nondom...which is a hold for me...but the slow grinding moves are the trickiest and a higher low is now in on the 60m...so wash for now

hth

 

 

i've got this as a p3 here on the day....back in short for at least a partial resumption and monitoring for a failure to traverse now...

 

reversed long on failure to p3...

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QUESTION: Other than Josh and N, how many here are working with MP/VP?

 

If you are trying to learn how to use it I'd appreciate knowing who you are..

 

Tx,

 

Tom

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QUESTION: Other than Josh and N, how many here are working with MP/VP?

 

Tx,

 

Tom

 

Tom - I wouldn't say I'm working with MP/VP right now, but rather observing the calls that you, N, Steve, and Josh make so I can digest and start to develop my own thought patterns that will include MP/VP. This could be a long journey...

 

As always, I find most of your posts very useful and I appreciate the knowledge sharing. You guys are doing a good job of teaching, whether you know it or not...

 

CYP

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Sorry..Are you short or long? Tx Tom

 

i was short then rev long then rev short now washed flat....my broker is very happy

 

this day may be a rare double reversal day if pm rallies

 

 

now back in short...v needs to increase and maintain or it's another wash

 

wash.,,

Edited by gosu

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CYP: Tom - I wouldn't say I'm working with MP/VP right now, but rather observing the calls that you, N, Steve, and Josh make so I can digest and start to develop my own thought patterns that will include MP/VP. This could be a long journey...

 

As always, I find most of your posts very useful and I appreciate the knowledge sharing. You guys are doing a good job of teaching, whether you know it or not...

 

 

Thanks: The best way to get something out of what is posted is to watch the same things on a chart, print the chart as the day unfolds and mark it with what the commentary might be: key areas, stucture.Why an area matters..what it means when it is approached or violated. Learn the terminology... That IMHO is how you can get the maximum yield for the time you are investing...

 

If you find MP/VP interesting then you should invest in some software that would allow you to see it... I traded successfully for years without it but it has given me what I believe is an advantage to see inside the bars.. and identify key areas..especially for daytrading..

 

Of course it is not the only way to do this and it must align with your psycology and belief system... the tough part in trading among the obvious is aligning the tools. The quest can take an eternity... there are so many dead-ends. I have spent years and $1,000s on research, software, programming, etc.. I can't even remember.. I have run from one side of the boat to the other.. I have never been able to replicate/duplicate what someone else does... I could see what they do but I couldn't "feel" what they do. - discretionary trader think..

 

Got to watch my positon here..

 

Reagards,

 

Tom

 

 

After that it is hypothesis & execution...

Edited by roztom

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i was short then rev long then rev short now washed flat....my broker is very happy

 

this day may be a rare double reversal day if pm rallies

 

 

now back in short...v needs to increase and maintain or it's another wash

 

wash.,,

 

Is wash mean Breakeven?

 

Tom

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UPdate: 1:27cst.. So here is what I am seeing (at the moment) rotation is shifting in favor of the longs... The Open & OR have been cleared to the upside..shorts are not going to like this and will start covering...

 

SO what does this structure suggest (potential)?

 

If shorts are caught off-side and there are enough in there we "might" create what in MP is called a Neutral day..What that means is Buyers and Sellers were both active and the balance was tipped both ways...

 

Theorhetically if we get a Neutral then there are some potential outcomes.. (scenarios)

 

1. We will make a new high this afternoon taking out the shorts... and then rotate back into the profile and close somewhere in the middle.

 

OR

 

2. Since we are in an uptrend and many longs got thrown over the side of the boat they will run back in... and cause this to close on the upside on an extreme...

 

will advise

 

Tom

 

Edit: Potential targert: Former CHVN: 1348.50/GBX Hi 1348.25ish... Reach: CLVN52.50 area..or non of the above... :)

Edited by roztom

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UPdate: 1:27cst.. So here is what I am seeing (at the moment) rotation is shifting in favor of the longs... The Open & OR have been cleared to the upside..shorts are not going to like this and will start covering...

 

SO what does this structure suggest (potential)?

 

If shorts are caught off-side and there are enough in there we "might" create what in MP is called a Neutral day..What that means is Buyers and Sellers were both active and the balance was tipped both ways...

 

Theorhetically if we get a Neutral then there are some potential outcomes.. (scenarios)

 

1. We will make a new high this afternoon taking out the shorts... and then rotate back into the profile and close somewhere in the middle.

 

OR

 

2. Since we are in an uptrend and many longs got thrown over the side of the boat they will run back in... and cause this to close on the upside on an extreme...

 

will advise

 

Tom

 

Tom - thanks for the options :) - I choose #1 and think that we rotate back towards the 1342-43 area.

 

CYP

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FOr MP ers.

 

Wehave the DVPOC @ 1341.25 with apx 69K contracts traded

 

We have a high volume node developing at 1346.50... apx 64K contracts..

 

If we sit here and the volume builds up here the DVPOC may shift..if it does it will be the moment of truth for this market..on the other hand we might just take the high out and it won't matter...

 

This is market generated information & some of what MP/VP can help you see when you look inside the market...

 

 

 

Tom

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FOr MP ers.

 

Wehave the DVPOC @ 1341.25 with apx 69K contracts traded

 

We have a high volume node developing at 1346.50... apx 64K contracts..

 

If we sit here and the volume builds up here the DVPOC may shift..if it does it will be the moment of truth for this market..on the other hand we might just take the high out and it won't matter...

 

This is market generated information & some of what MP/VP can help you see when you look inside the market...

 

 

 

Tom

 

Or if you're considering globex, 46.50 was the VPOC earlier and now is already shifted back :)

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We are at that juncture where the market will seek to cause as much pain to as many traders as possible. I would not be surprised to see a shakeout down. Likely the shorts from earlier have already been experiencing pain, so now it's the other side's turn potentially.

 

No bias here. Trouble area from this morning for bulls. If they can't take it higher here, could be a nice move down.

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Or if you're considering globex, 46.50 was the VPOC earlier and now is already shifted back :)

 

HMMM..Tx for pointing that out...

 

So far this market is not showing me what I want to see but I "suspect" they will at least take the HOD out and then we will see.. Delta looks like everyone is on siesta... right now..

 

Tom

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HMMM..Tx for pointing that out...

 

So far this market is not showing me what I want to see but I "suspect" they will at least take the HOD out and then we will see.. Delta looks like everyone is on siesta... right now..

 

Tom

 

When it comes to a VPOC shift, it's already "shifted" in principle anyway. Doesn't matter if in RTH it's a few hundred contracts short. Obviously it's a logical shift even if technically it's not.

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When it comes to a VPOC shift, it's already "shifted" in principle anyway. Doesn't matter if in RTH it's a few hundred contracts short. Obviously it's a logical shift even if technically it's not.

 

Agree: Kind of like the pin in a horseshoe pit...close enough ...

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UPdate: 2:43 I am flat... out 45.50..still a very good trade...

 

I still think this "could" take the HOD going into the close but a few points more with the current VPOC shift and erratic Delta just doesn't make it worth it to me...

 

There is always another bus coming by..

 

Thanks for your interest..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Is wash mean Breakeven?

 

Tom

 

Hi Tom,

 

In general, yes. On initial entries i like to get a tick or two to cover costs on the wash. Less frequently i take a tick or two on the negative. Either way I consider it "breakeven."

 

After a trade passes the initial stage, a wash is usually more than a couple ticks. This morning's short was washed for 2.5 points on the retrace but that's a wash to me because it was an action based on protection and not locking in profits. My intention was to play that trade as an interday hold and read the retrace as a nondom move. As an intraday trade, the correct exit would have been on the p2 prior to the retrace.

 

hth

 

even better would be a reversal at the p2

 

Today was an interesting day and I'll be saving the recording in a special folder named "fp3" to be compared with similar days.

 

The first reversal was not a surprise but the second reversal was. Had the day began short and not as a long+reversal, the second reversal would not be a surprise; but then if the day began short, the second reversal would be the first reversal.

 

nq is now in BO mode of the lateral on the ST without the ES and YM following suit; i.e., they are still in lateral. nq had been lagging until today and so i'll be monitoring for either a fbo on the nq or a BO on the es and ym on the ST. nq is signalling the market has at least another leg on the long side.

 

cheers

Edited by gosu

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I thought I would add a suggestion on how to learn to trade... :missy:

 

1. Software: DO your homework and get a software package that gives you the tools you need.. There are many different ones with specific strengths & weaknesses...

You DO get what you pay for but they cost relatively nothing today..

 

I use IRT..cost $90/mo with MP.. It is one of the best platforms if you want to use MP/VP.. while other platforms have MP/VP it is not the same..IRT may be one of the best... it is in how it handles the data & stores tick data... You do not have to reinvent the wheel..there are chart definitions out there that will give you what you need..you just go online and import them..simple..and you have what you need to create profiles.

 

Then you go online and watch everything you can about MP/VP..just watch it..get some books on it..I only got Stedelmeirs book when I learned it from him..actually donated it to a book fair after I abqandoned MP. I think there are better ones now...

 

(I am not a plant for IRT.. just have owned/used most other packages along the way...)

 

Data: Today you can get by with a good brokerage feed..if you are going to use MP/VP you must get tick data..not aggregated or BS data..

 

You can get it for free from TransAct/Infinity Futures..open a small account Free Data..

I think they also have a trading simulator so you can practice order entry, etc... and get the feel for the real deal.. You can't kid yourself with a printout of your trades.

 

Keep a Journal: Write Down Time, Price, Why, What you did right/wrong, emotional state, was their conflict, did you get angry, frustrated... were you euphoric, did you lose focus... etc.. There a several different areas to rate..Hypothesis, Entry, risk managem,ent, open trade management, exit.. This is a business and you MUST put the time in the make progress otherwise you will not succeed...

 

Finally: With many software packages You can playback the day. I do this almost everyday after I take a break... I speed it up but I want to see what I did wrong and what the structure was and just as important to see what I did right... When it comes time to pull the trigger we don't have the luxury of time..no different than in sports you have to have unconscious competence...

 

Watching the market bounce around without context unfortunately does not teach us anything... we can have a hunch where it might go but where do we take a position, how do we protect ourselves? How do we lose $... constructively? :crap:

 

There is an incredible amount of information out there and unfortunately no turn-key solution. There are a number of good forums and most describe the basics.

 

Remember it doesn't have to be complex... When you become familiar with the tools they become like old friends..but I remember the first time I saw a bar chart - freaked me out.

 

If I can help anyone here, and I'm not the best trader by any means, I will be glad to.. I have paid signifigent tuition to be able to do what I do and I am still struggling with my "self." after the tools the "self" is the main obstacle...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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...i've been playing to position for the ST p2

 

Tx..Could you explain what that is and what kind of analysis you use to identify locations, etc... Indicator based, Charts, etc?

 

Tx,

 

Tom

 

Hi Tom,

 

Just saw this post now. I use my own method to trade - no indicators, ma's, fibs, etc. Just price and volume and lots of lines drawn on charts. I have incorporated some of the Hershey people's nomenclature to describe market events...points 1,2,3 and ftt, BO, fbo, ftp, fbp, sym, etc., etc.

 

I also use descriptors of "fractals" like ST (short term), IT (intermediate), LT (long term) etc., etc.

 

Thus ST p2 refers to the point 2 event on the short-term fractal which is what i consider the key fractal for trading intraday. The move after p2 is a nondom move which precedes another leg in the dominant direction. That is, the move off the p2 is a retrace. As we saw intraday today, all reversals start out as retraces initially.

 

hth

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I thought I would add a suggestion on how to learn to trade... :missy:

 

1. Software: DO your homework and get a software package that gives you the tools you need.. There are many different ones with specific strengths & weaknesses...

You DO get what you pay for but they cost relatively nothing today..

 

I use IRT..cost $90/mo with MP.. It is one of the best platforms if you want to use MP/VP.. while other platforms have MP/VP it is not the same..IRT may be one of the best... it is in how it handles the data & stores tick data... You do not have to reinvent the wheel..there are chart definitions out there that will give you what you need..you just go online and import them..simple..and you have what you need to create profiles.

 

Then you go online and watch everything you can about MP/VP..just watch it..get some books on it..I only got Stedelmeirs book when I learned it from him..actually donated it to a book fair after I abqandoned MP. I think there are better ones now...

 

(I am not a plant for IRT.. just have owned/used most other packages along the way...)

 

Data: Today you can get by with a good brokerage feed..if you are going to use MP/VP you must get tick data..not aggregated or BS data..

 

You can get it for free from TransAct/Infinity Futures..open a small account Free Data..

I think they also have a trading simulator so you can practice order entry, etc... and get the feel for the real deal.. You can't kid yourself with a printout of your trades.

 

Keep a Journal: Write Down Time, Price, Why, What you did right/wrong, emotional state, was their conflict, did you get angry, frustrated... were you euphoric, did you lose focus... etc.. There a several different areas to rate..Hypothesis, Entry, risk managem,ent, open trade management, exit.. This is a business and you MUST put the time in the make progress otherwise you will not succeed...

 

Finally: With many software packages You can playback the day. I do this almost everyday after I take a break... I speed it up but I want to see what I did wrong and what the structure was and just as important to see what I did right... When it comes time to pull the trigger we don't have the luxury of time..no different than in sports you have to have unconscious competence...

 

Watching the market bounce around without context unfortunately does not teach us anything... we can have a hunch where it might go but where do we take a position, how do we protect ourselves? How do we lose $... constructively? :crap:

 

There is an incredible amount of information out there and unfortunately no turn-key solution. There are a number of good forums and most describe the basics.

 

Remember it doesn't have to be complex... When you become familiar with the tools they become like old friends..but I remember the first time I saw a bar chart - freaked me out.

 

If I can help anyone here, and I'm not the best trader by any means, I will be glad to.. I have paid signifigent tuition to be able to do what I do and I am still struggling with my "self." after the tools the "self" is the main obstacle...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Tom,

 

I have a hunch that your hunches are somewhat more mechanical in nature than you may be letting on and could be spelled out and taught as such. A developing profile may not give you any more insight than any other chart as to where the market might go in the future,but it can possibly give you as much info as any other chart. If MP has shown you contextual market structure it can certainly be passed on beyond your in the moment reactions to a fattening profile or your rotational revelations that only happen at the point of the next rotation.

You mentioned "context" in your reply, it is the destroyer of many an account for sure. Hard and fast rules concerning context can put us at odds with the market which is always right.I'm not so sure that MP/VP provides that contextual edge or if adopting a context based on nodes and value areas,opens and closes is a more natural and contextual way to trade than what is offered by time, price, volume and delta in a much simpler form.

Creating cumulative structures of any of the markets key components seems reasonable and worthwhile, but maybe its just laziness. Studying these components in their minutia might hold more value than studying them as a cumulative. The structure you are calling context may add no edge at all and may in fact keep you from understanding the simplicity of the market by replacing it with a "bigger picture" fallacy.

In any case please tell us more about how you took apart the profile and came to realize the benefits of its smaller parts. Without understanding the strength of your convictions it seems fruitless to read your market calls and seemed to have frustrated you today. I enjoy your conviction, I just don't understand why you have it. Please start at the beginning and teach us!

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Tom,

 

I have a hunch that your hunches are somewhat more mechanical in nature than you may be letting on and could be spelled out and taught as such. A developing profile may not give you any more insight than any other chart as to where the market might go in the future,but it can possibly give you as much info as any other chart. If MP has shown you contextual market structure it can certainly be passed on beyond your in the moment reactions to a fattening profile or your rotational revelations that only happen at the point of the next rotation.

You mentioned "context" in your reply, it is the destroyer of many an account for sure. Hard and fast rules concerning context can put us at odds with the market which is always right.I'm not so sure that MP/VP provides that contextual edge or if adopting a context based on nodes and value areas,opens and closes is a more natural and contextual way to trade than what is offered by time, price, volume and delta in a much simpler form.

Creating cumulative structures of any of the markets key components seems reasonable and worthwhile, but maybe its just laziness. Studying these components in their minutia might hold more value than studying them as a cumulative. The structure you are calling context may add no edge at all and may in fact keep you from understanding the simplicity of the market by replacing it with a "bigger picture" fallacy.

In any case please tell us more about how you took apart the profile and came to realize the benefits of its smaller parts. Without understanding the strength of your convictions it seems fruitless to read your market calls and seemed to have frustrated you today. I enjoy your conviction, I just don't understand why you have it. Please start at the beginning and teach us!

 

I'm not sure what to say.. I have probably lost my objectivity.. it is quite possible that what I post here comes across as mumbo-jumbo or some esoteric philosohical dribble..

 

Todays trade at least the one off the low was classic.. I stepped in there because of context and the previous days structure... Each day does not stand alone in a vacumn...

 

That is the point..that is what context is..it was on display today and any other day I posted a trade location and all the "thinking" and structure that went with it... One of the reasons I decided to post the trade details here was on the possibility there were some readers who just needed to get a little more..some detail, some thinking, some hope - yes it can be done.. no BS, no "I bought the bottom - sold the top BS" that we have all heard ..here's an arrow on a chart of what I did... blah, blah..

 

I have worked very hard to try to post the where & why well in advance if possible... sometimes several hours in advance. I really haven't heard of that happening elsewhere - if it is I'm just not aware of it. It takes a lot of effort...

 

I will share why I have done it.. I struggled forever..no help. My logic told me it was possible to consistently make $ trading but I never met anyone who did.. I met shooting stars that burnt out and blew up but no longterm bread & butter retail traders - other than guys on the floor.. scalpers..

 

My whole purpose in posting is literally to demonstrate that there is organization in the market and with the right tools you can align yourself with the OTF and ride the wave..that is how you make money..

 

In addition, you MUST know context to know when the market is on sale or too expensive..Today's break is a perfect example of the market being too cheap (context) and having the technical tools - MP/VP to know where that level was... it stopped exactly on a CHVN...and 2 ticks into IBH.. it doesn't get any better than that... that is the point..knowing where the opportunity was and knowing the upside potential and how to manage the risk if wrong...

 

The key to having tools is to know where the key areas are and then to try to position based on what you see when the market gets there... Any tool that let's you know where you are in the picture (context) can work...

 

I really don't know if my posting is just too etherial since I integrate multiple timeframes all built around Volume and I accept that Market Behavior and Volume are integrated over multiple timeframes... My charts integrate volume back to October 2007 and I see it displayed on my charts but that is only one piece..like a wheel on a car..a component..

 

My conviction is based on many years of struggle, study and investment.. However I am not a crusader for any specific methodology.. I have used a diverse number of tools over the years and in the end it is time, recognition of patterns and persistance. I am not a teacher and I am certainly not qualified to teach anyone to trade..I am and always will be a student myself - that is why I decided to drop in here - to check it out. Comraderie - who else you going to talk to about this stuff?

 

I also have not met anyone who is "qualified" to teach someone to trade successfully... at least not at the retail level... there is an endless list of dream merchants who would be glad to take your $.. On the institutional side that is a different story...but retail traders don't have access to that talent.

 

I cannot deconstruct what I do. I have been asked this before but it wouldn't work otherwise I would have taken someone's course 30 years ago and made $ with it.. Oh that's right - I took a course from Pete Steidelmeir on MP - the MP Guru himself.. I couldn't trade with it. Good guy BTW. -

 

I've got over 30yrs in this. I don't know if anyone really can teah someone else to trade - hopefully it's enough to know that it can be done. The trading business is a confluence of many tangible and intangible elements... Maybe some automated system can be created that is strictly rule based.. there are retail traders who are going in that direction - I can't do that. I have designed trading systems in the past for Fund Management but this was a long time ago and the market edge they had has long gone.. I am hands on...

 

I think it is really tough for the retail trader.. no matter how good our tools get, the "Smart $" is smarter, faster, better, More $, more MBA's, etc...

 

The point is: Seek and You Shall Find... but the answer is in the personal journey that each of us must take to get there...

 

I hope everyone who is determined and serious about this business will invest in a trading self education before putting one cent in the market. The market will be there but your trading $ might not...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

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Some observations: As of 7:33cst right after the Unemployment Claims report...

 

1. The low of GLobex @ apx 19:54 24 hr clock 1340.75 there is a CHVN @ 1341.00

 

2. The high of the move 1352.75 CLVN 1352.50..

 

1352.50 upside Target was posted here several days ago..by several of us which mean this is replicable..

 

Is that useful information? Can someone make $ with it? Volume AND Price are key components that make up market behavior... MP/VP have been on display here.. Is it the only way to succeed ? Absolutely not...

 

Does anyone think their trading would have an edge with it?

 

That is the point of my posts and several others here.. While everone has their own take and passion for what works for them - just as I have, I don't think there is any better tool out there that solves the issue of knowing with a high degree of confidence where critical areas are and also with the MP tool you can see it develop on a more micro level as the day unfolds..

 

Yesterday long off the bottom is a result of the MP/VP tool..my scale was also a result of the MP/VP tool..the market went there IBL and stalled and churned before testing the HOD..I had posted that.. Is that useful information? Can you make $ with it? Is it mechanical? Not really but markets do have repetitive behavior..that is just one of them..a user of MP/VP would anticipate that..is that worth knowing? I submit is certianly is.. otherwise I would be flundering being tossed around by my emotions since I would have nothing but hope & fear to guide me..

 

Whether we are looking longer-term signifigent nodes from 10/2007 or nodes created as the Day unfolds it is all the same..

 

Can this Market generated information give you an edge/confidence to execute a trade when the stars align?

 

When we put a trade on we do not know if it will work or if it is only a temporary rotation... to come back against us..at least I don't know but where would you want to step into the market? Does this Market Generated information create an edge?

 

I certianly submit that it does.. Just consider who you are trading against and where the retail trader is on the financial food chain.. Does anyone really think they can use canned lagging technical indicators alone and have an edge over everyone else - have staying power in this business? I've been there done that..Created my own indicators... I actually worked in 1981 or 1982 with the guy who invented Stochastics..an oscillator..we programmed it on an early Apple computer an Apple 2 or 2E. At the time we thought we had found the Holy Grail -nobody else had that tool.. but it is just another moving average derivative... there are a ton of them now..

 

All I can say is there is no turn-key solution.. I have bought trading systems with good track records, traded them, deconstructed them and threw them away when they didn't work.. Newsletter Guru's - same..on and on... Lost $, blew up my own account, Software pacgages with Elliot Wave/Fibinocci/Time and Price Projections - the list is too long but you get the point - Programmed my own system designs and eventually managed $... I do think I know this business pretty well.

 

But I have checked my Ego at the door. The reason I am sharing this is to ENCOUARGE readers to get serious. Have a plan.. even a plan to acquire the knowledge and tools so you can sort out what is happening in the market..

 

I have posted many times that "I know I don't know." That has liberated me from needing to be right.. I don't need to be right but I do need to know where I should be anticipating OTF activity based on Context and the integration of the tools that help me detect it.

 

After that discipline, execution, money management..

 

I want all of us to succeed... since there is really no reason we can't..other than ourselves..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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I'm not so sure that MP/VP provides that contextual edge or if adopting a context based on nodes and value areas,opens and closes is a more natural and contextual way to trade than what is offered by time, price, volume and delta in a much simpler form.

 

I could not parse this sentence clearly -- can you rephrase it?

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