Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

If you look back to 4/29 - 5/2 last year, the volume above 43 all the way up to 50.25 is not well defined. Let's see what happens if they push it through.

 

50 - 52 ish is my target up there....I'm using oxygen so I don't pass out since we're over 10,000 feet...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

It has shifted, but I'm not too sure it'll mean a counter move rotation. Very tight at the top of 2-day balance and right below the 1343 I mentioned. Danger is they push through and stops go off. just think how confident the market has been since failing on a low breakout.

[TheNegotiator 13]

If it does break higher, 42 will be the reversal marker(with a 40.50 caveat)

[roztom 10]

It has shifted, but I'm not too sure it'll mean a counter move rotation. Very tight at the top of 2-day balance and right below the 1343 I mentioned. Danger is they push through and stops go off. just think how confident the market has been since failing on a low breakout.

 

I certainly do agree..the DVPOC shift is a good test and the market just pushed off of it... Since we have volume up there currently 1342.00 it will be interesting to see if/when there is rotation... for a long.. I am waiting for the next bus... not sure if one will come along today..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: I want to add that I like looking at 15m bars and if we do rotate those are good areas 41.50 - 40.50 ish.. to consider longs if everything aligns... My "theory" is that unless this is a one way ticket to financial independance that the late buyers/breakout players will be tucking their stops under there so the market "might" go for the fuel, get the paper out and advertise for buyers... then again...

 

Tom

Edited February 7, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

dunno about others, but the way this is moving it very much feels like we want to see 50 today. still, got to see what it says it is doing rather than attempt to trade off predictions...

[joshdance 10]

I posted this in the Psychology forum a while ago and then thought why not direct your attention to it...as it may help some folks

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/11886-mind-you-brought-trading-not-mind.html

 

The attached chart wont mean much until you read that post..sorry but have some other chores to attend to now...

 

Steve

 

You didn't link to your post but I found it near the bottom anyway, and I assume that's what you're referring to.

 

This is one of many Bernanke testimonies, press conferences, etc., and if you think that him saying that caused the market to respond in some meaningful way, I think you've lost your mind, to put it bluntly and nicely. He says things like this all of the time, and Bernanke is VERY good at remaining generally apolitical in his comments. He crafts his comments in such a way that it will NOT cause ripples, if you listen to how he responds. The market tried to break beneath yesterday's low. Buyers held it, and pushed it back above. The market was primed for a run to the top of this range already, and Mr. Bernanke's comments had minimal impact. Did you see my post at 10:22 regarding the order flow shift that I observed, BEFORE the comments you're referring to, before 36 was even broken to the upside? The market is very well aware that he and the FOMC are responsible for monetary policy, which is why they pay attention to those matters; they don't give a rat's butt about his politically correct comments in which he stays out of matters regarding legislation.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Starting to get a bit screwy up here. Feel a break one way or other is on soon.

[steve46 12]

You didn't link to your post but I found it near the bottom anyway, and I assume that's what you're referring to.

 

This is one of many Bernanke testimonies, press conferences, etc., and if you think that him saying that caused the market to respond in some meaningful way, I think you've lost your mind, to put it bluntly and nicely. He says things like this all of the time, and Bernanke is VERY good at remaining generally apolitical in his comments. He crafts his comments in such a way that it will NOT cause ripples, if you listen to how he responds. The market tried to break beneath yesterday's low. Buyers held it, and pushed it back above. The market was primed for a run to the top of this range already, and Mr. Bernanke's comments had minimal impact. Did you see my post at 10:22 regarding the order flow shift that I observed, BEFORE the comments you're referring to, before 36 was even broken to the upside? The market is very well aware that he and the FOMC are responsible for monetary policy, which is why they pay attention to those matters; they don't give a rat's butt about his politically correct comments in which he stays out of matters regarding legislation.

 

As usual you miss the point Josh....the market tells YOU what is and isn't important and what it means....YOUR opinion on the subject (mine as well) doesn't matter...the man responded and the market went up...THATS what matters...

[gosu 10]

just to update on the nq ST p2 trade:

 

resting order got filled last night at 2530....premarket washed at 2518.50... short 2533.50 a few minutes ago...will update ST position at end of midday today

 

the open looked bullish premarket on higher low and the indicies are in ST lateral mode...I anticipate a BO failure as vol starts to dry up going into midday....

 

how the rest of the day goes today will be very informative of the ST trend

[joshdance 10]

As usual you miss the point Josh....the market tells YOU what is and isn't important and what it means....YOUR opinion on the subject (mine as well) doesn't matter...the man responded and the market went up...THATS what matters...

 

You're attributing the market moving to Bernanke's comment. Maybe this time it did. The market's dynamics are too complex to attribute to any one event, but perhaps this time someone in the market cared enough to click the buy button at his ambiguous, irrelevant apolitical comment. If you call that a "tradeable opportunity" then more power to you, hope it continues to work for you.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There were a few possible reasons for why it reversed hard, one of which was nothing to do with any news whatsoever. The important point for anyone to take is that it did and it was technically predictable. i.e. broke below the balance low by a few ticks or so, then couldn't sustain the selling. A retest of the balance low showed contention, which ended up not lasting very long with buyers being more aggressive. A failure here had clear targets of somewhere towards the 2day balance high at the very least. So whether you were watching Big Ben, reports from Greek ministers or anything else, if you were paying attention to the market, its intentions were clear.

[roztom 10]

In post # 1404 I referenced 2 areas for me to get long.. 41.50 & 40.50... I got long @ 42.00

 

Targeting 48 ish with scale along way.. I would have preferred to see 40.50 but it is not up to me... if we can't come out of here I will flatten out & look for the lower rotation..that would be a better spot IMHO... more stops taken out the better... but this may be not going to do that...don't know... Helmet on.. keeping a short leash on this one

 

regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: 11:33cst I have flattened out... Wanted a bit more juice here..think next spot down might come in play -don't know...

Edited February 7, 2012 by roztom

[steve46 12]

There were a few possible reasons for why it reversed hard, one of which was nothing to do with any news whatsoever. The important point for anyone to take is that it did and it was technically predictable. i.e. broke below the balance low by a few ticks or so, then couldn't sustain the selling. A retest of the balance low showed contention, which ended up not lasting very long with buyers being more aggressive. A failure here had clear targets of somewhere towards the 2day balance high at the very least. So whether you were watching Big Ben, reports from Greek ministers or anything else, if you were paying attention to the market, its intentions were clear.

 

I am glad there were "a few possible reasons" for that move...thats what I call "confluence"

 

Personally I don't have the time....and I mean that in the literal sense....when it is occurring I dont have the time to figure this out..it occurs to me just now that Pete Steidlmayer suggested that Market Profile couldn't explain this kind of behavior....in fact his opinion was that the best you could do was to look for imbalance based on the market's reaction to events....both on the macro and micro scale.

Edited February 7, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

I am glad there were "a few possible reasons" for that move...thats what I call "confluence"

 

Absolutely, it's great when everything aligns like that.

 

Personally I don't have the time....and I mean that in the literal sense....when it is occurring I dont have the time to figure this out..it occurs to me just now that Pete Steidlmayer suggested that Market Profile couldn't explain this kind of behavior....in fact his opinion was that the best you could do was to look for imbalance based on the market's reaction to events....both on the macro and micro scale.

 

I don't think anyone here would claim it can as such. But the structure and reaction to that structure is indicative of more probable outcomes in many cases.

Edited February 7, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[gosu 10]

a couple of washes from the earlier entry...

 

this is just picking up pennies in a tiny account...the main point is to maintain good trading habits while improving the position on the ST trade..from 2533.50 to 2534.25

 

still outside the BO area...so the intraday is still long...i'll wash the ST trade and go flat if this continues past midday...

 

the lack of vol makes this untradeable for me intraday past the first 2 hours in the AM...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a little update for anyone who's interested:-

 

[roztom 10]

Since I am posting my trades as related to my personal read of MP/VP with the emphasis on "read" I need to also post when I mess up... I was sitting long at 42.00 looking for continuation... I lost focus and liq the trade... after I did that I looked over everything and I had no reason to do that...

 

Now this may sound illogical to everyone but since I flattened out the trade has not gone bad.. it might and might not... I should still have that position..I put it back on...except I'm now at 42.50.. This is for me behavior modification... I gave up some edge and also increased my risk as a "consequence" of losing focus.. Win lose is not the issue...discipline is..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom, if your reason for getting out was because you were in for a long time and losing focus, it wasn't wrong to exit. However, if this is the case it was wrong to re-enter. If you exit and it goes, then so what (imho). We all miss moves all the time and so long as you have a reason(market based or otherwise) it's all good.

[TheNegotiator 13]

See Tom this is negative behaviour reinforcement right now!! Lol j/k :rofl:

[roztom 10]

Tom, if your reason for getting out was because you were in for a long time and losing focus, it wasn't wrong to exit. However, if this is the case it was wrong to re-enter. If you exit and it goes, then so what (imho). We all miss moves all the time and so long as you have a reason(market based or otherwise) it's all good.

 

N. Actually I had no reason to get out except I got impatient - an emotional response to sitting at risk... I lost focus since I had laid out 2 scenarios for areas to get long... I "preferred" the lower area since it would be a better location and the stops would be taken out... However, I do believe in behavior modification and that means a consequence for the wrong behavior..

 

Since I am supposed to be long per my plan I got long again..the consequence would be if I got bumped out I would have lost more and I would be saying to myself I could have risked less... that would have an impact on me... psycologically much more than the $..

 

A plan is a plan... I was supposed to be long..so I got long.. just my plan and I have to fight to not lose focus... it's that voice that pops into our heads sometimes from deep within that is a trading lunatic.. without focus Mr. Hyde takes over... :crap:

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIt: BTW, this can still rotate to my seconday location & I accept that...still no clue..outcome is ok...Also if we do rotate - depending on structure I "might" add there to reduce my average price - I do not recommend this to anyone unless you are comfortable with the math..

Edited February 7, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Greece news just then..........

[TheNegotiator 13]

bailout package meeting postponed until weds

[TheNegotiator 13]

We're a little jumpy then by the looks of things.

[TheNegotiator 13]

In terms of "fuel", if that was just an over/mis-reaction to news, that selling could provide some for a push higher(if it can't sell off).

[roztom 10]

In terms of "fuel", if that was just an over/mis-reaction to news, that selling could provide some for a push higher(if it can't sell off).

 

Agree: The depth of this rotation, developing balance and fatness of MP will be very telling.. it will have to move out of here before too long or else we could get a deeper rotation... IMHO..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: I do like the rotations to position, take out weak hands and also get the fade traders & their stops in there so they can cover later & takwe the market up... Of course this is all on the assumption they will be on the wrong side and not me.. :doh:

Edited February 7, 2012 by roztom