Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Well we got our gap fill (39, friday's settlement), but NQ seems unwilling to leave its overnight range so far, and the dow doesn't seem too happy to do so either. At 10:47am we got a nice surge of buying and good TICK reading, just at the open, after a lazy pullback, so that was a reasonable long opportunity, but of course aren't they all in hindsight.

 

EDIT: on a side note, I see that Bernanke testifies tomorrow, and speaks on Friday. Truly, what can he say that he has not already said? I don't mind the news creating movement, but it's just kind of silly.

 

He's a market cheerleader - got to support the re-election campaign... not meaning to be political... but we are in the "election cycle."

 

tom

 

Edit: I have gone flat for now... put a few dragma in the piggy bank... This looks like we will be getting rotation possibly to the midpoint... not recommending a position or anything.. This could be a market to also avoid until the afternoon... ... I am going to get a snack...

 

t

Edited February 6, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Twice pushed off of yesterday's VAL .. but on the touch of yesterday's close, there was quite a surge of volume. From that we can infer very little, except that there was participation. However, if I were looking short, in this case, I'd rather see less participation than more, and subsequently an increase in selling. We have not had that, so I will stay biased long, on this little pennant forming here.

[roztom 10]

Twice pushed off of yesterday's VAL .. but on the touch of yesterday's close, there was quite a surge of volume. From that we can infer very little, except that there was participation. However, if I were looking short, in this case, I'd rather see less participation than more, and subsequently an increase in selling. We have not had that, so I will stay biased long, on this little pennant forming here.

 

Agree. I am still biased long also but am flat - which I am ok with. I like 15m bars for the triangles/pennants.. Tom

[gosu 10]

short 2520.25 for ST p2...will play the retrace over several days

 

i'll wash and reenter short at a better entry throughout midday if needed

Edited February 6, 2012 by gosu

[gosu 10]

short 2520.25 for ST p2...will play the retrace over several days

 

i'll wash and reenter short at a better entry throughout midday if needed

 

washed at 2518.75...looking for reentry short

 

a short near friday's hod would be ideal....

 

 

short 2524.50.....

Edited February 6, 2012 by gosu

[gosu 10]

washed at 2518.75...looking for reentry short

 

a short near friday's hod would be ideal....

 

 

short 2524.50.....

 

i'm ok with this entry...i have a resting order for another contract at 2530, friday's hod....

 

since this is playing ST p2, i'll leave it here...

 

looking to play es long for pm until friday's hod

[roztom 10]

i'm ok with this entry...i have a resting order for another contract at 2530, friday's hod....

 

since this is playing ST p2, i'll leave it here...

 

looking to play es long for pm until friday's hod

 

With you on that... I still have my long bias but am waiting for rotation.. I gave up my 37.00 long so... :crap: but we might rotate to 36.50 - 37.00 area or maybe not... Delta has been consistently strong... so I will watch for the Profie development.. If we do get going upside target for me to scale 40.50, 48.00 and eventually 52.00.. no clue if we would hit any of them today ..

 

Delta being as strong as it is and the slow grind up I would, at this point, be suprised if they left this an inside day..of course I always get suprised...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

For those of you who like statistics..

[gosu 10]

i'm ok with this entry...i have a resting order for another contract at 2530, friday's hod....

 

since this is playing ST p2, i'll leave it here...

 

looking to play es long for pm until friday's hod

 

The problem with es currently is the anemic volume. I've rarely traded es after the AM since the beginning of the year. At this moment, on the 15m BO, volume is coming in under 15K...for me that's just not a tradeable BO intraday.

[gosu 10]

The problem with es currently is the anemic volume. I've rarely traded es after the AM since the beginning of the year. At this moment, on the 15m BO, volume is coming in under 15K...for me that's just not a tradeable BO intraday.

 

es just broke 60m short which was telegraphed earlier on the 15m...

 

obviously this disappoints people looking for a test of friday's hod....

 

volume is still in DU which means....wake me when it's over

[roztom 10]

I took the long against the CLVN 1336.50 as posted earler... Targets 1340.50, 1341.50 & hail mary pass to 48.00.. I will not overstay this one..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: Actually what I do is not as important as the "why." Any trade can win/lose..

 

CLVN @ 1336.50 is an important area also it is at mid-point and there is a little Low volume ish notch there on the interday MP... The MP is not the most supportive of this trade..

 

The Delta which is softeneing a bit is stronger than Fridays showing some urgency to get long..and finally if todays low is not taken out then we could see some upside movement this afternoon..

 

On the negative from the MP side is that we are building fat this shows acceptance of value..so it is also possible we will not go anywhere and longs may liquidate this afternoon.. So it is not clear at all... but I am still friendly to the long side and I have my helmet on..

 

ALways interested in how the rest of you are reading it..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIT: I typically expect countertrend rotation during lunch so I wait for my area to be tested and position for a "potential" continuation trade.. after all that's all we have.."potential."

 

T

Edited February 6, 2012 by roztom

[CYP 10]

I took the long against the CLVN 1336.50 as posted earler... Targets 1340.50, 1341.50 & hail mary pass to 48.00.. I will not overstay this one..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: Actually what I do is not as important as the "why." Any trade can win/lose..

 

CLVN @ 1336.50 is an important area also it is at mid-point and there is a little Low volume ish notch there on the interday MP... The MP is not the most supportive of this trade..

 

The Delta which is softeneing a bit is stronger than Fridays showing some urgency to get long..and finally if todays low is not taken out then we could see some upside movement this afternoon..

 

On the negative from the MP side is that we are building fat this shows acceptance of value..so it is also possible we will not go anywhere and longs may liquidate this afternoon.. So it is not clear at all... but I am still friendly to the long side and I have my helmet on..

 

ALways interested in how the rest of you are reading it..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIT: I typically expect countertrend rotation during lunch so I wait for my area to be tested and position for a "potential" continuation trade.. after all that's all we have.."potential."

 

T

 

Tom - I might be shooting myself in the foot, but I have been short since 1337 (a little early on that entry...) looking for downturn at the end of day towards 1335 area.

 

My thought - lack of conviction (ranging between 37-39) and lighter volume (thanks Josh). I imagine everyone will call the day an uneventful day and we will have a slight downtrend into the close. These are the days where that "bear" voice keeps whispering in my ear to be careful...although my "bull" voice says the long-term is still good. (I know I'm not saying much with that last sentence, but it sounded good when I first thought about it...)

 

CYP

 

I will change my mind if we start treading towards the 1339 area...we'll see.

[roztom 10]

Thanks for the insight... I'm rooting for both of us...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom - I might be shooting myself in the foot, but I have been short since 1337 (a little early on that entry...) looking for downturn at the end of day towards 1335 area.

 

My thought - lack of conviction (ranging between 37-39) and lighter volume (thanks Josh). I imagine everyone will call the day an uneventful day and we will have a slight downtrend into the close. These are the days where that "bear" voice keeps whispering in my ear to be careful...although my "bull" voice says the long-term is still good. (I know I'm not saying much with that last sentence, but it sounded good when I first thought about it...)

 

CYP

 

I will change my mind if we start treading towards the 1339 area...we'll see.

 

What about the "what is actually happening right now" voice?

[roztom 10]

What about the "what is actually happening right now" voice?

 

N: My "what is happening now voice is Bi-Polar"..both speak at the same time saying to do the opposite...

 

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Image of current 2-day profile. We're in the middle of a tight 2-day balance. Unless there is more news or a surge of business, I don't suspect much more for the day. You never know though

 

[joshdance 10]

What about the "what is actually happening right now" voice?

 

booyah. We are around 30% lower than 20d median volume (an already dismal relative volume at that) still, all day long, 6 point high to low range. I would say that the number of large organizations putting anything into this market today so far are somewhere between zero and none. This is the "pay your broker and the exchange" market.

[TheNegotiator 13]

booyah. We are around 30% lower than 20d median volume (an already dismal relative volume at that) still, all day long, 6 point high to low range. I would say that the number of large organizations putting anything into this market today so far are somewhere between zero and none. This is the "pay your broker and the exchange" market.

 

This is a "do something better with your time" market(imho).

[roztom 10]

booyah. We are around 30% lower than 20d median volume (an already dismal relative volume at that) still, all day long, 6 point high to low range. I would say that the number of large organizations putting anything into this market today so far are somewhere between zero and none. This is the "pay your broker and the exchange" market.

 

Thanks N & Josh for the posts.. I always take care of my broker..they do get paid first...

 

I am going to skew my scale to 40.50 and then 41.50 but am sitting here doing my knitting...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lol enjoy ur knitting! Btw, with a fairly cursory inspection, the last time we had a non-holiday range of <= 6points was 4/21/11!!. Fun, fun, fun :sleep:

[roztom 10]

Lol enjoy ur knitting! Btw, with a fairly cursory inspection, the last time we had a non-holiday range of <= 6points was 4/21/11!!. Fun, fun, fun :sleep:

 

One of the difficulties with this kind of market is waiting for an edge of the profile or an area where at least there might be some rotation to work with...

 

I have no clue what this bum is going to do but I am sitting with B/E Stop.. and have made good progress on my knitting...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think that was the day prior to good friday

[clmacdougall 11]

Hi Tom,

 

Is your probability set based upon which way the market might move due to the information you have gathered, or is your probability set based upon a risk to reward setup alone. And if the second than how is your thinking in anyways different from the first? What I'm trying to ask is how does a risk reward probability setup avoid trying to determine market direction? Thanks, Cory

[joshdance 10]

N, I have a favor to ask you if you have a minute right after the session closes at 4:15 today. I have observed what I think is a small bug in IRT that Chad wasn't able to reproduce, and I'm curious if you are able to. It should be simple to test:

 

Create a 1 minute ES chart, only need to show 2 or 3 days worth of data. Make this a RTH chart.

 

Insert the profile indicator, using the 3 period custom settings, 1020 minutes, and 405 minutes.

 

Right click the profile, and "show data" -- note the total volume, and the open price.

 

Now change it to an ETH chart.

 

Again note the total volume, and open price.

 

They should match -- do they, on yours?

What is the volume difference in the two, and what is the open for both?

 

It would greatly help me if you don't mind. It is best done when the market is closed from 4:15 to 4:30.

[CYP 10]

What about the "what is actually happening right now" voice?

 

Nice...thanks for the slap back to reality -- I've changed my mind...exit with a little nick. I'm going to take up knitting and follow Tom's footsteps...

 

CYP