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What I find difficult with the type of trading that MP/VP inspires is the amount of movement it attempts to statistically predict. There is too much that could and does go wrong with a trade like todays.

In effect roztom made an incredible call of a market turn today and watched his trade disintegrate late in the day. The truth is what we saw today was due to expectations that were too large, no statistical set has enough predictive ability to outlast the market.

You did a great job today Tom! Just lower the length of your call and I'm sure your statistical base will eventually catch up to your expectations.

 

Cory

 

Thanks Cory.. I know this is semantic but I do not have any skill to predict the market or make any market calls. There is no statistical predictive ability - at least I don't have it. I am a descretionary trader. I tossed the statisical aspect of MP a long time ago. I wanted to "read" the market.. it helps me do that. The targets and areas of interest stand... what the market does is up to the participants... I only use the tool to identify areas of interest. I also know that there is a high probability the market will test those nodes... What I believe that nobody knows is when...

 

My upside targets still stand - I don't know if we will hit them overnight, tomorrow or never.. I also scale out of my position along the way since I just don't know... I have always said - I know I don't know... that being said the market seems to go back and test Highs/Lows, etc Volume areas... Auction theory...

 

The profiles - Cumulative especially certianly have helped me see the potential of where the market might go and what to look for when we get there..

 

Targets are nice..I have to have a rationale and a target when I trade since my cost is too high to scalp.. I am forced into a longer timeframe to play the rotations.. so the profile and the nodes helps me see where my potential is..that is what those numbers are all about.

 

Since I have been posting this month a lot of the targets, etc have worked very well.. The other day several hours before an IB trade set up I posted the area, Not all IB's are the same.. there needs to be a LVN there and a balance above the IB - it ticked there and then took off to hit the target. What was different between today and then..? The setups/area of interest were the same - the level of participants weren't.. No way to know in advance.. BTW if someone does know if a trade will work in advance - PLEASE post... :)

 

I'm glad the posts help... I also hope that nobody misunderstands the purpose. I'm just another guy squeezing the blood out of the turnip..I also believe that MP is possibly one of the most misunderstood tools available to the retail trader. I believe there is so much distraction in the theorhetical/technical aspects that it's true value is easily obscured. MP/VP can be very helpful if integrated into the toolbox.. and the Academic aspect is jetisioned for the practical application.. Just my 2 cts... Again appreciate your kind words..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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I hope everyone realises though that trading from "node to node" isn't necessarily the name of the game. High and low volume prices are areas of previous value or supply or demand. Just because they were in the past, it doesn't mean they will be in the future. They do give us a framework to work with though. When we see prices revisited within the context of the auction, we watch to see if there is any indication that they will again hold up as places other traders are interested in. Sometimes we are more agressive if we feel the risk:reward is particularly favourable and other times we look a little more before committing. Then, when we are in a trade we watch for what the market does in comparison to our theory and we manage the trade.

 

As you can see, there is much more to the trade than high and low volume prices. Indeed, many say actually entry technique is not especially high up on the list of factors effecting a trader's success.

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I hope everyone realises though that trading from "node to node" isn't necessarily the name of the game. High and low volume prices are areas of previous value or supply or demand. Just because they were in the past, it doesn't mean they will be in the future. They do give us a framework to work with though. When we see prices revisited within the context of the auction, we watch to see if there is any indication that they will again hold up as places other traders are interested in. Sometimes we are more agressive if we feel the risk:reward is particularly favourable and other times we look a little more before committing. Then, when we are in a trade we watch for what the market does in comparison to our theory and we manage the trade.

 

As you can see, there is much more to the trade than high and low volume prices. Indeed, many say actually entry technique is not especially high up on the list of factors effecting a trader's success.

 

Well put... I find if I am going to enter a trade I want it to be at a make or break area... A key level... I know if I am going to be wrong - I am usually way wrong..If I am right in my entry my risk is small and I have great trade location... even todays IBH trade did not have a large risk on it.. in my trade plan it was the right place to go long and add to my position.. (for me).

 

I think the management of open trades is tougher than entries also... What the heck do you do once you have the tiger by the tail?

 

A good entry is imnportant.. good enties allow you to manage your risk efficiently but then what? How/When do you scale? What about a target... other than Nodes what other targets are there, etc... I shoot for other targets - stops...on the other side...

 

We have been focused on entry/targets built on MP/VP.. I hope we can get into trade management and exits...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Here we go, a much more interesting Globex open and early trade.

 

First, we have a continuation move off the RTH close.....the important thing about this short trend move is that it "takes out" the VAL at 1320.75.....seeing this.....if you understand how this market moves, you wait for the retest.....and sure enough (see the first green arrow on the left) price comes back to test, staying there for about a half hour (remember this is the Globex market)....before taking off to the north...

 

At this point (the red arrow) price runs out of gas at the lower boundary of our overhead supply node.....the "read" is very important....first you see the initial test at the boundary...then you see price test through trying to find buyers....but no interest.....this is the important part of any test of a level.....price tests, pushes through and fails....after a short retrace we get a "spike" up to match the previous high....once that spike comes back to close the candle....you have a nice low risk short entry....and as is characteristic of that failure, we then have a nice leisurely ride back down to retest value.....

 

The retest comes back to value but does not come back to the tick (as it did before). Instead we get buyers coming back into the market just a bit sooner (see the next green arrow) and what you see is a more "typical" reversal pattern.....this one follows an algorithmic pattern that I have seen many times....and it produces a low risk long entry....

 

This market is all about "reading" and making sense of the data....if you have the skills its a walk in the park...if not....you probably have a sense of frustration....

 

Wishing everyone the best of luck

Steve

5aa710c89b79e_GlobexChart.thumb.PNG.0d4d1c4585790046ad585b0259aae23c.PNG

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Here we go, a much more interesting Globex open and early trade.

 

First, we have a continuation move off the RTH close.....the important thing about this short trend move is that it "takes out" the VAL at 1320.75.....seeing this.....if you understand how this market moves, you wait for the retest.....and sure enough (see the first green arrow on the left) price comes back to test, staying there for about a half hour (remember this is the Globex market)....before taking off to the north...

 

At this point (the red arrow) price runs out of gas at the lower boundary of our overhead supply node.....the "read" is very important....first you see the initial test at the boundary...then you see price test through trying to find buyers....but no interest.....this is the important part of any test of a level.....price tests, pushes through and fails....after a short retrace we get a "spike" up to match the previous high....once that spike comes back to close the candle....you have a nice low risk short entry....and as is characteristic of that failure, we then have a nice leisurely ride back down to retest value.....

 

The retest comes back to value but does not come back to the tick (as it did before). Instead we get buyers coming back into the market just a bit sooner (see the next green arrow) and what you see is a more "typical" reversal pattern.....this one follows an algorithmic pattern that I have seen many times....and it produces a low risk long entry....

 

This market is all about "reading" and making sense of the data....if you have the skills its a walk in the park...if not....you probably have a sense of frustration....

 

Wishing everyone the best of luck

Steve

 

Hi Steve -

 

Even though Asia couldn't do it, I am hopeful that Europe can continue the push upwards through the 1324 area. I project the push to start around 11:30pm PST. Thoughts?

 

Thanks for all your posts.

 

CYP

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Thursday's Market: What "might" we anticiipate for today? Globex traded inside yesterdays RTH... /we probed the CLVN 1317.50 so what is reasonable..?

 

What is the market waiting for... ?

 

Look where we are going to open RTH..what is it saying?

 

Would you trade today any differently than yesterday?

 

If so, how? Why?

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Thursday's Market: What "might" we anticiipate for today? Globex traded inside yesterdays RTH... /we probed the CLVN 1317.50 so what is reasonable..?

 

What is the market waiting for... ?

 

Look where we are going to open RTH..what is it saying?

 

Would you trade today any differently than yesterday?

 

If so, how? Why?

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

 

What in the Sam Hill are you trying to do to us Tom? I don't want to think for myself, it hurts when I do that!!:doh: I want you to do all the thinking and then we can put you down when you make even the smallest mistake at the end of the day.;)

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:haha:

 

What in the Sam Hill are you trying to do to us Tom? I don't want to think for myself, it hurts when I do that!!:doh: I want you to do all the thinking and then we can put you down when you make even the smallest mistake at the end of the day.;)

 

If you think I have the answers we are ALL in big trouble... :helloooo:

 

That's why I asked you guys the question..

 

Here's how I see it and what I am doing differently... today

 

This market is "currently" in balance.. it will probably probe both extremes of Value from yesterdays RTH. 1320.25 on the low and 1325.75 ish on the upside...

 

When we opened in the middle I saw the Opening range test yesterdays IBH.. this was a tip-off to me to watch for a short set-up.. I confirmed it with DElta and the Magic-8 ball took a short for a test of the lower value area and yesterdays close + CHVN 1319.75.. covered and reversed & took some out the other way.on the long side..

 

For me today it was/is Inside out, outside in..with the VAL/VAH as areas to be probed..

 

If we break out of balance then I would "go with" and position with the direction...until that happens I would trade rotations...

 

Are yesterdays targets on the upside still in play? Yes. But we might only nick yesterdays high or maybe not at all .. as far as yesterdays high goes there is no tail so it wasn't rejected IMHO just lack of buying -- in MP we call that a local high.. it "could/should" be taken out in the future... maybe today/maybe not - no clue - except it is there..

 

Again I might be totally off and this can change as the market generates new info...

 

It's just to demonstrate a read of the market at this time / the open of RTH and the information MP/VP can provide..

 

Hope this is rational and helpful.. This is a piece of what I take from MP/VP.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

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If I am right in my entry my risk is small and I have great trade location...

 

How true! As a trend trader (spot forex but considering futures so following this thread intently, especially the MP/VP stuff which I have found very fascinating - I find different types of support and resistance compelling) the 100+ point trades often come from 5/6 point risk positions. Perhaps it's a case that the market volatility contracts until the point where it has to break somewhere, and our systems point the right way to be when that happens. Very interesting to see someone else have that experience

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:haha:

 

 

 

If you think I have the answers we are ALL in big trouble... :helloooo:

 

That's why I asked you guys the question..

 

Here's how I see it and what I am doing differently... today

 

This market is "currently" in balance.. it will probably probe both extremes of Value from yesterdays RTH. 1320.25 on the low and 1325.75 ish on the upside...

 

When we opened in the middle I saw the Opening range test yesterdays IBH.. this was a tip-off to me to watch for a short set-up.. I confirmed it with DElta and the Magic-8 ball took a short for a test of the lower value area and yesterdays close + CHVN 1319.75.. covered and reversed & took some out the other way.on the long side..

 

For me today it was/is Inside out, outside in..with the VAL/VAH as areas to be probed..

 

If we break out of balance then I would "go with" and position with the direction...until that happens I would trade rotations...

 

Are yesterdays targets on the upside still in play? Yes. But we might only nick yesterdays high or maybe not at all .. as far as yesterdays high goes there is no tail so it wasn't rejected IMHO just lack of buying -- in MP we call that a local high.. it "could/should" be taken out in the future... maybe today/maybe not - no clue - except it is there..

 

Again I might be totally off and this can change as the market generates new info...

 

It's just to demonstrate a read of the market at this time / the open of RTH and the information MP/VP can provide..

 

Hope this is rational and helpful.. This is a piece of what I take from MP/VP.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Would I be right to say that you are trading the rotations within the previous days value area?

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The questions I asked pre-market are the questions you should be asking yourself..

 

What is the market trying to do..?

 

What did we learn yesterday in RTH (Other Than I got Nicked on the IBH Trade)?

 

What about Globex? How did it trade in relation to yesterdays RTH? Did it trade differently than it has recently? What does that suggest for today?

 

Should you have a different plan for different conditions...?

 

Can you make $ today? Can you make $ with yesterdays strategy in todays market?

 

I'm just asking... The answers are very important IMHO..just my 2ct :2c:

 

Hope this helps..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

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Would I be right to say that you are trading the rotations within the previous days value area?

 

That is correct. Inside out/outside in from the edges to each VAL/VAH... with an eye on yesterdays high since it wasn't tested.. but I am more interested in the rotations... right now..

 

What is the market waiting for? News... What Major report is tomorrow? Employment.

 

If we get going on the upside and break out of this balance then the market will have changed until then... Helmet on...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Hi Steve -

 

Even though Asia couldn't do it, I am hopeful that Europe can continue the push upwards through the 1324 area. I project the push to start around 11:30pm PST. Thoughts?

 

Thanks for all your posts.

 

CYP

 

There are several "pre-position" time periods for the Globex market one of which I WILL comment on

 

The primary pre-position time frame for the US market usually extends from about 3:30 to 5am PST

 

At that point, knowledgable participants "vote" by putting a position on.....some might speculate that institutions actually try to move the market prior to that time period so that they might get into favorable positions prior to specific events....

 

The reason we trade the Globex is that we have the experience necessary to know when to get involved and how to act.

 

Regarding timing....markets "anticipate" specific events including economic reports and in this environment, meetings having to do with Euro monetary crisis. Because the world is so interconnected, you can assume that Global money institutions will wait for each event based on timing before they act so as to insure that they have all the data...most markets are waiting for Chairman Bernanke to speak before committing further funds to market.

 

We placed our "bets" based on our view of world events several days ago....and then we trade around that basic position....our next action took place at 5am this morning and we did trade the open (and we are managing a position now).

 

We expect a test of 1329 sometime after the lunch hour...and of course events can alter those expectations....so we simply watch (like the rest of you) and react to events as they happen.

 

The attached chart shows the timing of our most recent long entry

 

Hope this helps

Steve

5aa710c8a8e5c_TodaysChart.thumb.PNG.fda74b8bdfc94a164722f943ec9013ea.PNG

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:haha:

 

 

When we opened in the middle I saw the Opening range test yesterdays IBH.. this was a tip-off to me to watch for a short set-up.. I confirmed it with DElta and the Magic-8 ball took a short for a test of the lower value area and yesterdays close + CHVN 1319.75.. covered and reversed & took some out the other way.on the long side..

 

Tom,

 

What does the Magic-8 ball say about tomorrow's Employment report? :)

 

My 8-ball didn't work too well last night...:rofl:

 

BTW, thanks for all your posts --

 

-CYP

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There are several "pre-position" time periods for the Globex market one of which I WILL comment on

 

The primary pre-position time frame for the US market usually extends from about 3:30 to 5am PST

 

At that point, knowledgable participants "vote" by putting a position on.....some might speculate that institutions actually try to move the market prior to that time period so that they might get into favorable positions prior to specific events....

 

The reason we trade the Globex is that we have the experience necessary to know when to get involved and how to act.

 

Regarding timing....markets "anticipate" specific events including economic reports and in this environment, meetings having to do with Euro monetary crisis. Because the world is so interconnected, you can assume that Global money institutions will wait for each event based on timing before they act so as to insure that they have all the data...most markets are waiting for Chairman Bernanke to speak before committing further funds to market.

 

We placed our "bets" based on our view of world events several days ago....and then we trade around that basic position....our next action took place at 5am this morning and we did trade the open (and we are managing a position now).

 

We expect a test of 1329 sometime after the lunch hour...and of course events can alter those expectations....so we simply watch (like the rest of you) and react to events as they happen.

 

The attached chart shows the timing of our most recent long entry

 

Hope this helps

Steve

 

Hi Steve, why do you expect a test of 1329 sometime after lunch? Thanks

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There are several "pre-position" time periods for the Globex market one of which I WILL comment on

 

We expect a test of 1329 sometime after the lunch hour...and of course events can alter those expectations....so we simply watch (like the rest of you) and react to events as they happen.

 

Hope this helps

Steve

 

Well put Steve..yesterday I posted several targets on the upside: 29.75 - 33.00 ish.. We didn't get there yesterday but yesterdays high is weak IMHO... like spaghetti..

 

After lunch will be interesting...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Tom,

 

What does the Magic-8 ball say about tomorrow's Employment report? :)

 

My 8-ball didn't work too well last night...:rofl:

 

BTW, thanks for all your posts --

 

-CYP

 

I have no clue... I don't predict, I can't predict. Trading for me is not predicting but detecting. I just trade what I perceive is the market generated information which is a reflection of the participants and I can interpret it incorrectly as anyone else.

 

I wait for my areas, confirm the set-up, place my trade, manage it.. etc.. It either is successful or it isn't.. If I follow my plan - win, lose or draw on any trade - I win...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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I thought I'd mention a trade I just took and it can be a loser, of course...might be - this is just to share the thinking..it could be the wrong thinking..

 

The market rotated as we anticipated... We had RE on the upside and tested VAH 1325.75... I won't post what I did up there since it is past already... but you knew the plan..

 

Here is what I am doing now... I took a long off the 19.25 area... Here's why...and nobody should do this...

 

IBL/and stops under it/Bottom of yesterdays Closing Swing 1318.75 & CHVN 1319.75 and most revealing IMHO only 40 contracts traded 1318.75

 

Will it work? Is it right? NO clue...

 

If I don't like what I see I will bail.. but the market did have information there that could be actionable.. Let's see how it develops..

 

Please do not do this trade.. it may have further extension down..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Here's my update: I took a loss on the trade.. this is ok - for me... My next area down is CLVN 1317.50... this has been an important area.. I repositioned long against that...

 

 

Another item of interest... and I have no clue if the downside is over or whether we will go for the stops under yesterdays low...

 

In MP we have a Neutral Day.. both sides are active and currently are in balance... "Theory" in MP is that unless something changes we will at least go back to the middle at some point..we can actually do anything as you know..

 

After taking the loss I just repositioned lower - I must manage this position... Good Trading & do not follow the trade.. please..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

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So I am long, have scaled already and have made back almost all of my loss from the last long... and sitting..

 

So now what? Where are stops resting on the other side?

 

22.00? higher? Will we rotate up to the DVAH again..take out yesterdays high? No clue..

 

It's lunchtime...

 

Good Trading..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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:angry:Please remember - there is no magic pill for this... and I really hope nobody takes these trades... the purpose of my posts is to share just one way of using MP/VP and the NODES... As you know I do not stand in front of the nodes but when they align with other market generated information and the area is confirmed as a qualified set-up, for me - I take the trade..

 

Please remember the purpose of this thread is to share information - not call trades... I'm sure there are better traders lurking here.

 

I only want to share a thought process and how it aligns with some of the market generated information in MP/VP.. I have no corner on great trading.. just some tools..

 

We all want to make $ trading.. However, I think it might be as important or more than the set-up for me to demonstrate how I lose $... :angry:

 

We don't see too many of those posts do we? I'm sure we all take losses - right? If I post -a set-up I will also post the losses otherwise I'm just wasting your time and mine.. that is not my intent..

 

Managing the risk of the trade is key... knowing where you are wrong... or if internals say you are wrong... IT's the risk that will take you out of this business.

 

I do not blindly put a stop in and wait to get run over.. I do always have a stop but it rarely gets taken. I am usually out before and take a small loss unless the market reacts extremely to some item..

 

I hope you can see that the MP/VP may have a place in your arsenal... It is not easy to learn since at least to my thinking there is so much useless information attached to it..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

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I'll post an update: 12/;52cst...

 

I had previously posted 22.00 as a point of interest.. I took another scale there.. Why? Bottom of OR and top of "I" period...stops are/were there, VWAP, etc Todays Open, Yesterdays VPOC - all of those items told me to scale and that area "might" be an obstacle if even only temporarily... All of that information is on your chart or a Profile...

 

That's my thinking - discretionary but planned ahead..

 

As Steve said: You have to read the market.. I still am managing the last part of my position and depending on the structure might always add or reverse...I have no clue...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Haha what an exciting day I've missed! Lol. Although I would point out that just because the range isn't large doesn't mean the chances weren't good. I can spot at least 3-4 nice entries at prices we've had an interest in recently.

 

What a lovely looking bell profile and an inside day(so far). Anyone for a move tomorrow?

Edited by TheNegotiator

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Haha what an exciting day I've missed! Lol. Although I would point out that just because the range isn't large doesn't mean the chances weren't good. I can spot at least 3-4 nice entries at prices we've had an interest in recently.

 

What a lovely looking bell profile and an inside day(so far). Anyone for a move tomorrow?

 

Yes it was a very tradable day... ..Perfect MP Neutral...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

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Another nice Globex long entry at about 9pm PST

 

This one was relatively easy to take because in addition to testing an underlying demand node, we had confluence of Value, and time (Singapore close to closing)

 

So we take the trade, and watch the screen with one eye while we check out "Person of Interest" and "Mentalist" on TV..

 

We also watch our Bloomberg for news and scan the local news for econ reports.

 

As with all good longs, it was preceeded by a move into wholesale territory, followed by a patterned response indicating a reversal. Once we see the response, we know that professional interests are going to be interested in buying that bargain and (hopefully) marking it up.

5aa710c8dda60_TonightsGlobexEntry.thumb.PNG.26e2d0017f82dd1d3a382e734d546c46.PNG

Edited by steve46

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      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
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    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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