Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Well I got shaken out on that market down tick. Quite a violent TICK down as somebody hit the market. Lowest reading of the day and open PnL risk was too high for me to hold on till 1329 region.

 

Am watching to see if we touch VPOC/VWAP or even IBH as you stated Roztom, for a lower risk entry going into the close/globex.

 

edit/ There was definitely a lack of volume built around 1323.50-1324.00 on the daily VP so it makes sense that it may want to re-test that region.

Edited by mdubsnz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well I got shaken out on that market down tick. Quite a violent TICK down as somebody hit the market. Lowest reading of the day and open PnL risk was too high for me to hold on till 1329 region.

 

Am watching to see if we touch VPOC/VWAP or even IBH as you stated Roztom, for a lower risk entry going into the close/globex.

 

edit/ There was definitely a lack of volume built around 1323.50-1324.00 on the daily VP so it makes sense that it may want to re-test that region.

 

As of 1:19cst we did test IBH just 1 ticked it..so far behaving ok.. do need to see it start coming out of here.. I did add so I am a bit jaundiced.. :helloooo:

 

Good trading all..

 

Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As of 1:19cst we did test IBH just 1 ticked it..so far behaving ok.. do need to see it start coming out of here.. I did add so I am a bit jaundiced.. :helloooo:

 

Good trading all..

 

Tom

 

Nice.

 

I was a little too ambitious with my LMT placement so missed the IBH entry as was really anticipating the VPOC test. Am now waiting in line for a down tick as really don't want to pay up if I don't have too :p

 

edit/ok got my fill, now it may carry on as it was ^_^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nice.

 

I was a little too ambitious with my LMT placement so missed the IBH entry. Am now waiting in line for a down tick as really don't want to pay up if I don't have too :p

 

edit/ok got my fill, now it may carry on as it was ^_^

 

GREAT!! Call some friends..we need some more buyers :)

 

regards,

 

Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It looks ok to me... ..unless it breaks down out of the consolidation..

regards,

 

Tom

 

It does not look ok to me, because I cannot enter to any position. I dont know when, where and if it breaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VPOC Shift 13:47 ish: VPoc shifted to 1323.00 and the market moved up... don't know if it is sustainable and Delta went up with it... This is how I "try" to discern what is happening in that high VOL Area...

 

2p we will see... :confused:

 

Good Trading,

 

Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
VPOC Shift 13:47 ish: VPoc shifted to 1323.00 and the market moved up... don't know if it is sustainable and Delta went up with it... This is how I "try" to discern what is happening in that high VOL Area...

 

2p we will see... :confused:

 

Good Trading,

 

Tom

 

Assuming nobody unloads a boat going into the closing auction I think I will be placed ok going into the GLOBEX session to let her ride for a retest of the highs if one is to occur.

 

Market internals are all off their highs however and facing some continued pressure so :/

 

Assuming Asia and Europe don't have any major negative news I would presume the VPOC will hold and price will move away higher at some stage leading into tomorrows open.

 

Maybe they run it up into NFP or sell it off from here based on the trend of reports this week to be under consensus. Time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Assuming nobody unloads a boat going into the closing auction I think I will be placed ok going into the GLOBEX session to let her ride for a retest of the highs if one is to occur.

 

Market internals are all off their highs however and facing some continued pressure so :/

 

Assuming Asia and Europe don't have any major negative news I would presume the VPOC will hold and price will move away higher at some stage leading into tomorrows open.

 

Maybe they run it up into NFP or sell it off from here based on the trend of reports this week to be under consensus. Time will tell.

 

I've had a better time at my Dentist... and have put my toys away for the moment..

 

Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've had a better time at my Dentist... and have put my toys away for the moment..

 

Tom

 

I'm still hanging in there by a whisker. Still have the DVAL, an EMA aswell as GLOBEX resistance for me to lean on as potential support. Don't really like what I'm seeing tho. Delta got smacked.

 

edit/ ok I'm flat. some decent unloading there. Will re-look at things during globex.

Edited by mdubsnz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm still hanging in there by a whisker. Still have the DVAL and an EMA for me to lean on as potential support. Don't really like what I'm seeing tho. Delta got smacked.

 

Yep...everything looked good until it got smacked at 25.75...

 

Things can get interesting around the cash close also...just watching here to see if there's a set up...

 

Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep...everything looked good until it got smacked at 25.75...

 

Things can get interesting around the cash close also...just watching here to see if there's a set up...

 

Tom

 

???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

 

Steve, when you say most of it long from the overnight, are you meaning those whom positioned themselves long during yesterdays (and/or mondays) RTH as opposed to professionals who initiated new positions during the overnight session? or both in reality?

 

Just last nights move higher was pretty thin compared to the amount of volume we saw into todays close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

 

Good point...Certianly agree...if retail is long which I was then got to look for long liquidation which I did... t

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Steve, when you say most of it long from the overnight, are you meaning those whom positioned themselves long during yesterdays (and/or mondays) RTH as opposed to professionals who initiated new positions during the overnight session? or both in reality?

 

Just last nights move higher was pretty thin compared to the amount of volume we saw into todays close.

 

Global Markets are all heavily correllated now with both commercials and institutionals trading primarily off the European news. I can only rely on my own training....I was long in the options market and outright from yesterday. There was no need to get long today at the close....and the traditional idea that long term investors are going to pay up to be in at the close doesn't apply. Those of us who make a living at this are mostly mark to market and are motivated to book profits early in the year.

 

Based on my training if I am still interested in the close I would be looking for a pattern that reflects both automated execution and pros getting out...that pattern showed itself several times in the last hour...I certainly wouldn't step in front of that looking to be long at the close.

 

and now I have to prepare for the Globex open...

 

Good luck folks

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
???I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing the important data...human behavior

 

steve, it's not our mp or volume and you are missing the point. If you understand it with auction context and experience it does show you what is going on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like MP and Auction Market Theory just fine sir...I use it myself (when it applies)....unfortunately what trumps that data is the fact that markets are controlled by professionals (today) and the decisions that they make are informed NOT by Market Profile or Auction Market Theory, but by basic economic realities....and (in large part) to each participant's emotional response to news of the day...

 

Once I learned how to use this approach to markets, I was able to continue to use Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and to put that data in its proper perspective....

 

and what I mean by that is this....I can use the data (I certainly trade off elements of Market Profile including Value)....and then when appropriate I watch the crowd trade off of it mechanically (without thinking it through) and I take the other side....

 

and I don't mean to be impolite...I enjoy the debate, but I need to get back to work.

 

Best to all

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting mechanically trading off it. If they are they'll likely be disappointed like others who trade mechanically with other tools. But using the auction and structure to gain quantifiable entries and exits can be very useful.

Edited by TheNegotiator

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I like MP and Auction Market Theory just fine sir...I use it myself (when it applies)....unfortunately what trumps that data is the fact that markets are controlled by professionals (today) and the decisions that they make are informed NOT by Market Profile or Auction Market Theory, but by basic economic realities....and (in large part) to each participant's emotional response to news of the day...

 

Once I learned how to use this approach to markets, I was able to continue to use Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and to put that data in its proper perspective....

 

and what I mean by that is this....I can use the data (I certainly trade off elements of Market Profile including Value)....and then when appropriate I watch the crowd trade off of it mechanically (without thinking it through) and I take the other side....

 

and I don't mean to be impolite...I enjoy the debate, but I need to get back to work.

 

Best to all

Steve

 

Steve: As you know many here are interested in MP/VP... nobody has ever suggested a mechanical approach to MP. We all know it doesn't work. MP/VP in context with other tools, as you pointed out has value.. that has always been a consistent theme of the discussion here.

 

Back in the early 80's when it was introduced it was initially presented in a somewhat rule based format... I couldn't work it that way..couldn't trade with it... Today with volume it certainly provides me with areas of interest to consider taking positons... as well as allowing me to see when the structure is breaking down.. I do not advocate mechanical trading - too many variables. I also assume that we all use a confluence of tools and do so in a different manner...so one size does not fit all...

 

My objective in posting - and I believe this is quite clear is to try to demonstrate the MP tool as the market develops and to help those following the thread to read it as it is unfolding. MP really has to be learned as it unfolds not as a static picture.. Whether anyone wants or should integrate MP into their trading is up to them but when I learned it, it was static pictures in a book except for what I saw develop on my CQG machine. IT didn't work for me.. nobody was there to help..there were no Forums, No internet, trading was a very isolated business.. etc...

 

Hopefully the time I've put in here has been benificial in helping those with an interest in the MP/VP tool... Many participants seem to appreciate that the Profile is making more sense and with Josh, Negotiator, and others posting I believe the general understanding of its potential as a useful tool has been enhanced etc... All tools have Pro/Con..MP no different... even the IBH trade that went bad today had apx 2 pt open trade profit in it.. the profile identified the area and provided rationale for taking a position there. It was not a stand in front of the market trade...none of them are.. but I think we can agree that area was support until it gave way..

 

What I attempt to do is point out areas of interest and then if the market rotates there then a trade must be confirmed by other market behavior / tools - after that it is up to the market participants... When the IBH trade went bad..there was a short opportunity for the reasons you already mentioned... if the market is long and it fails you will see long liquidation... that also was an opportunity.. that was my reference about going into the close..

 

I don't want this to sound (textually) that I am advocating anything other than the sharing of tools and ideas... which I assume is why we are all here.

 

With your knowledgeable background, I hope you will share some more of your insights with us... I know we would all appreciate it and benifit from it.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited by roztom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What I find difficult with the type of trading that MP/VP inspires is the amount of movement it attempts to statistically predict. There is too much that could and does go wrong with a trade like todays.

In effect roztom made an incredible call of a market turn today and watched his trade disintegrate late in the day. The truth is what we saw today was due to expectations that were too large, no statistical set has enough predictive ability to outlast the market.

You did a great job today Tom! Just lower the length of your call and I'm sure your statistical base will eventually catch up to your expectations.

 

Cory

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What I find difficult with the type of trading that MP/VP inspires is the amount of movement it attempts to statistically predict. There is too much that could and does go wrong with a trade like todays.

In effect roztom made an incredible call of a market turn today and watched his trade disintegrate late in the day. The truth is what we saw today was due to expectations that were too large, no statistical set has enough predictive ability to outlast the market.

You did a great job today Tom! Just lower the length of your call and I'm sure your statistical base will eventually catch up to your expectations.

 

Cory

 

Understanding the profile and auction context gives us an idea of what may happen. This is not the same as choosing to trade it with a certain strategy. There are some techniques which require more attention than others, some which are potentially riskier depending on your own personality. And so on. There are entries which I see others take which I wouldn't necessarily take myself. But I see the same things as they do. Use the tools to see what is going on, but trade your own strategy which you are comfortable with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Understanding the profile and auction context gives us an idea of what may happen. This is not the same as choosing to trade it with a certain strategy. There are some techniques which require more attention than others, some which are potentially riskier depending on your own personality. And so on. There are entries which I see others take which I wouldn't necessarily take myself. But I see the same things as they do. Use the tools to see what is going on, but trade your own strategy which you are comfortable with.

 

You're right N, but the inspiration to trade from node to node is largely what trading VP offers. I believe Tom is really onto something contextually. You can see he's made an art out of a failed science (mechanical MP/VP). It's a pleasure to watch him post and I hope he does not stop. Very interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.