Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[clmacdougall 11]

Tom, I must ask where you have learned your specific application of the MP methodology. Was it self taught? You are using MP info as a contextual map of the market and as an entry tool. How were you able to learn it so? Ive read "Markets and Market Logic" "141 West Jackson" "Steidlmayer on Markets 1" "Steidlmayer on Markets 2" "Markets 101" "Markets in Profile" "CBOT Market Profile Study Guide" "Mind Over Markets" & "Value Based Power Trading" I loved most of the books but could not see it as transferrable to the markets. How were you able to make this transition?

N, I am in no way trying to divert your thread it's just if it's ok with you it seemed an appropriate place to ask such a question. If it's not appropriate please let me know.

[Sobo 10]

Out of interest Sobo, do you chart RTH at all or are you happiest with 24hr?

 

What do you exactly mean? You mean like to have only RTH in chart? If so, I am happy with 24hr, because sometimes I trade premarket too.

[roztom 10]

Tom, I must ask where you have learned your specific application of the MP methodology. Was it self taught? You are using MP info as a contextual map of the market and as an entry tool. How were you able to learn it so? Ive read "Markets and Market Logic" "141 West Jackson" "Steidlmayer on Markets 1" "Steidlmayer on Markets 2" "Markets 101" "Markets in Profile" "CBOT Market Profile Study Guide" "Mind Over Markets" & "Value Based Power Trading" I loved most of the books but could not see it as transferrable to the markets. How were you able to make this transition?

N, I am in no way trying to divert your thread it's just if it's ok with you it seemed an appropriate place to ask such a question. If it's not appropriate please let me know.

 

As I may have posted previously I learned it directly form Steidlmayer in the early 1980's.. & have only read "Markets and Market Logic." I worked with it for about a year and discarded it... When the CBOT introduced the Liquidity Databank I thought that would give it an edge (LDB was Volume) only available in T-BOnds at that time but I couldn't do anything with it. I didcarded it and became a critic of it for many years... The auction process made sense to me but not TPO time based trading.. which is one reason today I am not time based but swing based...

 

I am self taught I guess... Other that Steidlmeirs original book I have not read anything on it.. I visited a Chat room a number of years ago to see what was new but nothing really was...

 

Actually the profile is very similar to my bar charts except I see the volume as well as the price.. I don't think I am doing anything different than anyone else...

 

One thing and this is a negative for me is I cannot backtest and have a mechanical process. I just know where the areas are and make a judement when we get there..that creates a random outcome..very dangerous for a trader as Steve has mentioned especially from the psycological side... but I have much more confidence and patience waiting for the market to come to me instead of me chasing it..

 

I would be glad to discuss further off the thread if you would lilke.. I am passionate about what it can add..

 

Thanks for asking..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 31, 2012 by roztom

[clmacdougall 11]

So long as what people write is relevant it's fine by me.

 

 

 

 

clmacdougall, this is the power of auction markets combined with profiling. Tom called it spot on, yet he will also have had scenarios for a break lower. Everything is based on probabilities with all things being equal(i.e. no new news etc.). When a market breaks out of a balance area(like the one we've been in from 1/19 in ES, it can break further or fail. A failed break is as telling as a successful one actually. The fail here was because we had an OTD(open-test-drive) type open which tested the balance low at 1301.50(actually it tested 1301.25 which ended up the Initial Balance high). The expectation was for testing key profile areas between 1299-96 ish initially at which point we would gauge the strength of any counter rotation. As it happened, once those areas had been tested, the move up was strong enough to get us back into the prior balance and develop(i.e. build up trading volume) and then hold above the 1301.50 balance low which indicated that prices here were still acceptable. The shift in the VPOC indicated that shorts were being taken which fuelled the move higher after one last test of the balance low failed.

 

But things aren't always as clear cut. Sometimes they are, sometimes they're not. This is why understanding the process is so important so you can decipher the auction as it occurs. This is what the thread is about and I am pleased with everyone's contributions so far. Keep it up Josh(who apparently is awol this week!!), Tom, Steve and everyone else who genuinely contributes and shares ideas! Thanks guys!

 

 

N, thank you so much for the post you made. Instead of asking a hundred questions, perhaps I should read the thread from the beginning. Does your thread contain the unfolding of how you contextually learned to use MP as an overall map and entry tool or is this something we merely see in the thread but aren't necessarily on the same page when it comes to understanding your interpretation?

Thanks, Cory

[TheNegotiator 13]

What do you exactly mean? You mean like to have only RTH in chart? If so, I am happy with 24hr, because sometimes I trade premarket too.

 

That's what I mean yes. It's fine, just that from an auction perspective I find RTH a useful session to chart.

[TheNegotiator 13]

N, thank you so much for the post you made. Instead of asking a hundred questions, perhaps I should read the thread from the beginning. Does your thread contain the unfolding of how you contextually learned to use MP as an overall map and entry tool or is this something we merely see in the thread but aren't necessarily on the same page when it comes to understanding your interpretation?

Thanks, Cory

 

Cory,

 

It doesn't as such no. I wouldn't bother reading the thread from the beginning honestly. I'd say read Dalton's books for the effort(and anyway)!! The thread is more about daily application of anyone's methods. If they have value, it doesn't have to be MP/VP/auction based. But this is what we have at the moment. More later as we've just opened!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

That was a poor read on the cons conf! 61.1 exp 68.

 

Anyone notice how the 15.00 was touched just as the release came out?!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Is there any reason really for us to stop at 1304.25 or are there any better targets? What should we make of the open and failure to hold 10.25 and even 08.50? Some pretty decent selling so far today imo.

 

 

Broke mid post :doh:

[mdubsnz 10]

Nice little exit at yesterdays VPOC at 1302.50 for those short..

[TheNegotiator 13]

Absolutely. Although I wouldn't expect it to hold if it pushes down again. VPOC wasn't in the middle of a strong balance so has less meaning to me.

[roztom 10]

Nice little exit at yesterdays VPOC at 1302.50 for those short..

 

I was just about to post same... Now It will be intersting to see the rotation for potential continuation or at least scalps inside the lower developing distribution area..

 

IBL 1307.00 - 1308.50 ish is an area I will watch for stop raids and potential areas of interest... Of course no guarantee we will get there ..

 

If we can get below that VPOC1302.50 it opens up some interesting possibilities for the downside.. BTW: 1302.50 is a big numer.. CHVN and NVPOC there so at least good for the potential LOD or at least a bounce... either way I will be on the short side from higher up if we get there 1306.00 is also an area but I prefer higher just t get some shorts squeezed.. Hopefully Mr. Market will cooperate...

 

It is times like these when you exit at a target that at least I wonder if it will rotate & give me a chance to work a another position with OTF, however, the proabilites favor rotation - especially over lunch or when a major number has been hit. Subject to what the "market" wants to do.. :missy:

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 31, 2012 by roztom

[mdubsnz 10]

Absolutely. Although I wouldn't expect it to hold if it pushes down again. VPOC wasn't in the middle of a strong balance so has less meaning to me.

 

Yup I don't really see much until mid to low 90's when it breaks.

 

Am looking for a pop back up to the IBL/1306 region to initiate a short if order flow is supportive of it.

 

Am closely watching the NQ to see if it goes positive. Has generally been a good leader over the past few months.

[TheNegotiator 13]

BTW: 1302.50 is a big numer.. CHVN and NVPOC there so at least good for the potential LOD or at least a bounce...

 

Any number can and often does end up a daily extreme. But why do you say 1302.50 is big? On a long term profile, the high volume area isn't well defined(whatever your start date is). 1303.50 is, using a January profile as is 1301.50 which was well confirmed yesterday. Yesterday's profile was hardly "normal" and the VPOC volume at around 70k was below average. Plus, with a 1 tick fail(if 5.25 is taken- which it looks like it might be) we have a pretty poor low. Still, on the lower end of this current development it may end up the price to have gone long at.

[roztom 10]

Any number can and often does end up a daily extreme. But why do you say 1302.50 is big? On a long term profile, the high volume area isn't well defined(whatever your start date is). 1303.50 is, using a January profile as is 1301.50 which was well confirmed yesterday. Yesterday's profile was hardly "normal" and the VPOC volume at around 70k was below average. Plus, with a 1 tick fail(if 5.25 is taken- which it looks like it might be) we have a pretty poor low. Still, on the lower end of this current development it may end up the price to have gone long at.

 

I understand but you are more detailed than I am.. I know I don't know and I watch behavior / Delta around key areas along with other indications... I do not typically try to scalp against OTF unless we have a limited RE... not like today... I do expect the market to potentially test this low and the failed auction @ 1302.25 so I am waiting to get short as posted... I do not try too much to predict the market just identify the areas of interest to initiate positions...

 

BTW Mdub posted the 1306.00 we just tested it 11:24 cst..might be a good number I still want to look for stops at IBL... to position... 1306.00 could be it also...don't know..

 

Good trading..

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Fair play, just asking

 

Profile looks a bit of a mess above but possibly IBL 07.25, 08.50 balance VPOC/VWAP area or 10.25 could be good areas to test.

[mdubsnz 10]

Looking constructive that, that may have been the LOD.

 

NQ seems to be making small bursts towards even/positive for the day, TICK making higher lows, A/D ratio looking better and Delta getting worked off at these levels, slowly but surely.

 

If we can clear the IBL and build some volume in that area I think we are ok (for those long from LOD area).

[TheNegotiator 13]

very slow grind so far though. just have to see how it reacts to these areas.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting reaction off the VPOC here...

[roztom 10]

Interesting reaction off the VPOC here...

 

Yes..I had poted earlier that a rotation to the 1308.50 level for stops and then a rotation down..It also happened to coincide with the VWAP @ 1308.00 so nice set up for short... Patience pays...

 

The rotation stopped at VPOC which suggests to me we will rotate higher... probably to CHVN 1310.50 ish as of 1:19cst

 

Regards,

Tom

[steve46 12]

I thought this might be interesting to some

 

It is a chart displaying a time based reversal setup....I did not take this...I trade selectively in the afternoon and sometimes miss these setups

 

As can be seen on the chart, the ES tested an underlying demand node, moved away and then retested....this is prototypical for a reversal....look over at the DAX and you can see that it was

ahead of the ES, suggesting one of two things.....either the ES would have to "catch up" and move north or the DAX would have to reverse and head south...I read the tape to resolve that issue...

 

Most of these trades are good for at least 2-3 points.....the preferred bet is to take a position and scale out at 2 or 3 as dictated by the tape, leaving at least one unit to run....Depending on the day and previous ATR I will often leave that last part in to the end of RTH....stop at B/E

[roztom 10]

I thought this might be interesting to some

 

It is a chart displaying a time based reversal setup....I did not take this...I trade selectively in the afternoon and sometimes miss these setups

 

As can be seen on the chart, the ES tested an underlying demand node, moved away and then retested....this is prototypical for a reversal....look over at the DAX and you can see that it was

ahead of the ES, suggesting one of two things.....either the ES would have to "catch up" and move north or the DAX would have to reverse and head south...I read the tape to resolve that issue...

 

Most of these trades are good for at least 2-3 points.....the preferred bet is to take a position and scale out at 2 or 3 as dictated by the tape, leaving at least one unit to run....Depending on the day and previous ATR I will often leave that last part in to the end of RTH....stop at B/E

 

Steve: Good way to play it..I am not long on this one but when I get a good location and suspect the crowd will be caught off-sides I will hold into the RTH close...Today will be interesting to see just how confident the shorts are...

 

BTW Steve: I have the VPOC @ 1304.00 and CHVN @ 1304.00 - key area...You call it a Demand node - I see it the same way...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

I got long 1308.00 - always a bit late...we rotated to CLVN area 1306.50... so CHVN 1310. 50 still in play... I am looking to exit at 1310.00 for 2 pts and then carry a bit longer if we can take out 1310.50..

 

I am out of this one -1.25 per...

 

Tom

Edited January 31, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

Long again 1308.00 target 1310.00 then hold.. Tom

 

BTW: This is the hardest trading for me... I can get tossed around like a cork floating in a hurricane... Chop is rough but out of chop or a coil comes energy...

 

Tom

 

2.22cst..scratched...GRR

Edited January 31, 2012 by roztom

[steve46 12]

Another boring evening watching the Globex markets develop......and so I will post this example trade setup

 

The attached chart shows the DAX on the left and the ES on the right....The DAX opened "Gap Down" however we saw no continuation...no acceleration toward a lower number....in fact the index stayed within a 10 point range....while the ES tested a value number (1304)

 

We waited for the ES to display a reversal pattern that we know to be characteristic of programmed execution and institutional interest....once we see that it is just a matter of getting the right price on entry, then staying with the trade long enough for our edge to kick in...

 

Once we are in....we keep on eye on the news (and we make a couple of phone calls) to make sure we are not going to get blindsided....

 

So far so good.

Edited February 1, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

and here is a follow-up on that Globex entry

 

as with the previous post, I usually put the trade on, take partial profit at 2 or 3 and leave a piece in to run until I see a profit of 5 to 10 points (or close of Globex).

 

Good luck folks

Steve