Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Possibly but I would have targeted the 01.50 myself just because it is the low of the last RTH balance. 1207.00 might be interesting along with 10.25 later if we remain in positive mood. Possibly low in too. One tick off Jan profile high vol price(which is fairly minor from this month's perspective).

 

 

 

Yes downside objectives fulfilled at this time... "Bailing is such sweet sorrow" :crap:

 

But that is the real world of trading... I will play the rotations when they set up...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

Target is gap close initially 1307.00 ish... looking for potential rotation to 1300.50 - 1301.50 ish area for potential long. Why? We currently have a balance area developing here with LVN @ 1301.25 IBH. Also stops will be resting in those areas...

 

According to MP market will auction and once a temporary balance is created it will test buyers and sellers on both sides... My thinking is always what will attract the market to a specific area (interday) It is where the stops potentially are gathered... Of course, if the OTF is agressive the market won't get there..

 

BTW as of 10:41 cst the market paused at CHVN 1304.00 even (1304.25) and is now doing some rotation. CHVN are typically temporary obstacles. CLVN 1306.00 area is more important.. SO I will be waiting for the roation as noted above and target 1306.00 area.. initially and play it forward from there..

 

10:55 cst. DVPOC shift to 1302.50 wil denote new Balance area as outlined.

 

Just my humble opinion - the way I interpret this.. the market determines if it plays out that way.

 

Good trading..

 

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Maybe true. However, IBH has already been tested at 11:16, so I'd be a little more cautious. I do think a test of the 1307 fri low is on the cards and possibly higher, although the move up is hardly 'thrusting' right now. Auction lower to excite buyers?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Overnight low, vpoc and vwap all in same area...

[TheNegotiator 13]

VPOC and midpoint now both @1300.00.

 

EDIT: VPOC= read as VWAP

 

(sorry)

Edited January 30, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[roztom 10]

I am still waiting on rotation as of 11:38 cst. CHVN 1304.00 is containing upside so far... I always look for these counter-rotations over lunch when the market/OTF player thins out and it is easier to counter-rotate for stop raids... The only reason I trade during lunch is to put a position on for a continuation trade...

 

The hard part is trying to step in front of the counter-rotation - assuming we get it... (as previously noted). I know I'm not telling any of you anything new...

 

I hope you find some value in these posts and that you can follow along. I am not suggesting that this is the secret sause but over time you might see how MP can be integrated into your plan or at least that it is a rational process that does work... Brain Damage is included..

\

11:48cst..just got DVPOC shift to 1302.50 as previously posted..now it will get interesting ..helmet on... Potential rotation/stop areas IBH, etc key for longs. IMHO..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

New HOD(by more than a tick ) and we could see anything between 07.00-10.25, test 01.50/IBH again and quite possibly it will break and at least test earlier vpoc at 1299.25. Either way we could well be build up for a move.

[roztom 10]

UPdate: 12:27cst... Rotated to area as projected.. held IBH to tick 1301.50..

 

GOt long..1302.75... (I really need to get better trade location) Initial scale 1304.25 next 1305.75.. helmet on... long final target 1307.00 ish as prev posted... Just FYI Tom

 

UPdate: 12:38cst..1305.75 scale achieved... CLVN 1306.00 high tick so far... HOlding last position for 1307.00 area...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by roztom

[clmacdougall 11]

wow! great call, you can read the markets. Please don't edit your initial posts in the future as it makes your call seem more believable.

[roztom 10]

wow! great call, you can read the markets. Please don't edit your initial posts in the future as it makes your call seem more believable.

 

I just didn't want to waste space... but if Negotiator doesn't mind I will do that..

 

Thanks for the kind words...

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

UPdate: This morning @ 8:20 cst post # 1119 I projected my upside target for 1307 -1308.00. Target achieved 12:47 cst.

 

BTW, this does not mean that this move is over 1310.50 ish might be in play..but I am flat...and will evaluate rotations for potential continuation...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

 

If this commentary helps - or if I can do it better - let me know..

[roztom 10]

I am done for today, heading out to lunch.. Thank you for your interest. I will check back later.. Good trading ..

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I just didn't want to waste space... but if Negotiator doesn't mind I will do that..

 

Thanks for the kind words...

 

Tom

 

So long as what people write is relevant it's fine by me.

 

 

wow! great call, you can read the markets. Please don't edit your initial posts in the future as it makes your call seem more believable.

 

clmacdougall, this is the power of auction markets combined with profiling. Tom called it spot on, yet he will also have had scenarios for a break lower. Everything is based on probabilities with all things being equal(i.e. no new news etc.). When a market breaks out of a balance area(like the one we've been in from 1/19 in ES, it can break further or fail. A failed break is as telling as a successful one actually. The fail here was because we had an OTD(open-test-drive) type open which tested the balance low at 1301.50(actually it tested 1301.25 which ended up the Initial Balance high). The expectation was for testing key profile areas between 1299-96 ish initially at which point we would gauge the strength of any counter rotation. As it happened, once those areas had been tested, the move up was strong enough to get us back into the prior balance and develop(i.e. build up trading volume) and then hold above the 1301.50 balance low which indicated that prices here were still acceptable. The shift in the VPOC indicated that shorts were being taken which fuelled the move higher after one last test of the balance low failed.

 

But things aren't always as clear cut. Sometimes they are, sometimes they're not. This is why understanding the process is so important so you can decipher the auction as it occurs. This is what the thread is about and I am pleased with everyone's contributions so far. Keep it up Josh(who apparently is awol this week!!), Tom, Steve and everyone else who genuinely contributes and shares ideas! Thanks guys!

Edited January 30, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[steve46 12]

Having quite a bit of fun here today....two tests of time based pivots....tried to catch this last one as close to "real time" as possible.....LOL but it seems to be beyond me.....

 

This was a retracement and test of the previous day's low at 1307...of course no idea if it will hold but we take them anyway...

[steve46 12]

and this follow up to that post, where you can see the dilemma that trader face....do we "stay with" the trade or bail.....?

 

for me the issue is pretty simple....you read the tape...and/or you rely on your previous tests of the data....(your stats)....

 

If you read the tape....you can see (I can see) that the Tick, Vold/ADD and DAX are telling me to stay with it (for the moment anyway).....as buyers are overcoming sellers...that can change of course as participants make their decisions from the sidelines...

 

Interestingly several folks trading along with me made their own decisions and watching the process you can see how much of it is related to individual psychology, rather than the system itself...

 

Edit

 

Forgot to say this and I think it is very important....the most important work I do is research and testing....and given that a trader has an edge....if you don't take the trades, or you don't "stay with" the position.....you are essentiallly randomizing your result....

 

Good luck

Steve

Edited January 30, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

Forgot to say this and I think it is very important....the most important work I do is research and testing....and given that a trader has an edge....if you don't take the trades, or you don't "stay with" the position.....you are essentiallly randomizing your result....

 

Very important point indeed Steve.

[steve46 12]

A typical boring overnight market, so here is the chart showing price testing and retracing from the 1313 area

 

What you see is the overhead supply (dark blue rectangle).....the dark blue color shows me that this is an area of supply imbalance.....as price tests that area, we look for a specific reversal pattern....The pattern itself reflects an algorithm that I found to be repetitive and predictive of future movement.

 

I monitor world markets, news and pending economic reports during this time hoping to avoid getting slammed......It also helps that I can call my old colleagues overseas to get "look" at conditions from a different perspective.

[roztom 10]

A typical boring overnight market, so here is the chart showing price testing and retracing from the 1313 area

 

What you see is the overhead supply (dark blue rectangle).....the dark blue color shows me that this is an area of supply imbalance.....as price tests that area, we look for a specific reversal pattern....The pattern itself reflects an algorithm that I found to be repetitive and predictive of future movement.

 

 

Steve: Very interesting. I have a key area CLVN 1313.25 and the next area up 1317.50.

1319.50 is a key NVPOC.

 

Thanks for posting the chart...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so at this time, way before open, we have pushed higher overnight. Much higher(probably above 17.50) and we'll be in the low volume upper portion of the 19/1/12//30/1/12 balance. The question is, is the balance still valid, or is price lagging value? In the former possibility, an open towards the higher end of balance (at or near 17.50 would still be over 10pts from the high) would give better odds on any short position. In the latter option, the market can move fairly quickly and directly towards higher areas(possibly toward a test of 1350) before forming new balance.

 

I've done a chart showing yesterday's action explaining visually the failed break.

 

 

and for Sobo, a YM chart . Similarities here are obvious although one big difference is the lower volume of the upper balance from January as compared with ES. More trading was perhaps needed at lower levels before a move up or possibly we are yet to agree as much on value. Make of it what you will. There are some levels illustrated though.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have a key area CLVN 1313.25 and the next area up 1317.50.

1319.50 is a key NVPOC.

 

Yeah I was looking for a possible test of 19.50 on Friday. If you remember it was being tested over lunch Thursday and I think you went short. I think it could be a useful area to gauge the market.

[roztom 10]

N: Not sure is I dodn't misread your post but High of GBX as of 7:18cst is CLVN 1317.50. This is the same number we had from Friday..

 

That being said 1319.50 NVPOC - 1322.00 ish range is in play for today.. 1324.25 could be a reach.. If we get above that then we are going to explore new highs for the move...

 

On a personal note I do not think that is in the cards... but that is up to OTF, not me.

 

I "suspect" we will start with the upside move and test with the potential eventual rejection of higher prices as we stay inside this range/bracket baring any suprises - of course at least for me, until I see the MP development I don't know what will unfold.

 

If I see anything of interest I will try to post..

 

Wish all good trading...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah, 17.50 is possibly interesting also given that it is low vol/on high. Personally, I'd think it possible that we re-establish prior value as upper extreme(29.75) looks to have already been made for the minute. However, it depends on OTF and the type of opening activity we get. A drive up from somewhere around here could well give rise to new (recent)highs. Otherwise I imagine that the balance VPOC shift may be challenged and a reversion to 10.25 could happen again. Let's see!

[Sobo 10]

Thanks for your post Negotiator. It is shame nobody trades YM here and I cant share ideas with anybody. Eminis move similar, at least I can use some of your information about ES to transform the to YM.

 

Anyway, I see market make a move to yesterdays high area and then we will se if it gets rejeceted or break through.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Out of interest Sobo, do you chart RTH at all or are you happiest with 24hr?

[roztom 10]

Thanks for your post Negotiator. It is shame nobody trades YM here and I cant share ideas with anybody. Eminis move similar, at least I can use some of your information about ES to transform the to YM.

 

Anyway, I see market make a move to yesterdays high area and then we will se if it gets rejeceted or break through.

 

Sobo: I guess the ES is the primary focus here but chances are the Nodes are proportionate.. What you might take away from this is the process at least form the areas of interest and if MP is something you want to integrate it is a generic process and transferable to all markets assuming liquidity/volume/volatility required... for day trading..

 

I have used MP for ETF's, etc. anything that moves... the process is all the same... It does help however, to have a "feel" for the behavior and volatility of specific markets..certianly Crude trades differently than ES but technically it works the same. IMHO.

 

Regards,

 

Tom