Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[clmacdougall 11]

Very gutsy Josh. Not easy to call out your trades in front of everyone. Thanks

[joshdance 10]

Gotta take into account that we are in a 7pt range so far in the middle of the volume development.

 

Good point. The difference in the 1/13 retest and punch up at 72ish is that there was a very high demand, and it shot up like a rocket. I remember clearly seeing a 28-30K volume 1 minute bar as it bottomed out, with the delta being pretty well in the green. Here, we are simply building, and while this could easily bottom out here and go back up, the sellers have been making these lower highs and I think they want to dig for water a little deeper than this well can provide.

[joshdance 10]

Very gutsy Josh. Not easy to call out your trades in front of everyone. Thanks

 

Thanks cl -- I don't want this to be a "call your trades" thread as it's N's thread and he can dictate how he wants it run. But I find that explaining a premise in real time, executing a trade in real time, and then managing the trade in real time, is about 1000% harder than doing it on a past static chart, and for me 1000% more helpful when others do it, versus showing what they did an hour ago or a day ago. It's all helpful of course, but the hard part of trading is actually doing it, outside of hypotheticals.

[MightyMouse 12]

Thanks cl -- I don't want this to be a "call your trades" thread as it's N's thread and he can dictate how he wants it run. But I find that explaining a premise in real time, executing a trade in real time, and then managing the trade in real time, is about 1000% harder than doing it on a past static chart, and for me 1000% more helpful when others do it, versus showing what they did an hour ago or a day ago. It's all helpful of course, but the hard part of trading is actually doing it, outside of hypotheticals.

 

It is very humbling. Which is a derivative of one of the most important trading virtues; Humility.

[joshdance 10]

bought 10, stop is 08.75, needs to go now, looking for 19s

 

Just realized after my last comment that I did not explain the premise.

 

The spx 5 minute chart shows yesterday's low, and us hitting that low twice since the open. This time it dipped below that low, ES showed a very nice surge of volume, which I want to see; then the key was that it closed back above yesterday's low within 3 or so minutes, and lots of green on the delta and tape showing buying interest.

 

On top of that, per my earlier charts I was watching this 08 area, and looking for it to hold. I paid up a little at 10, but I was looking for it to break enough to run. It broke up nicely, but look at 11:17 - 11:19 volume, to see what I mean by lots of push, not enough result. Normally this may not be a big deal, but this is usually okay AFTER it has broken into new highs... you can expect faders, and they will often get run over because people are looking for the breakout to push. In this case, pretty heavy buying was being absorbed BELOW the prior low at 13.50, and that's when I exited.

[joshdance 10]

It is very humbling. Which is a derivative of one of the most important trading virtues; Humility.

 

Indeed -- the worst that can happen is that I take a loss, and look like a fool. If it's a stupid trade, then it's simply revealed that I traded like a fool, which is the reality. If it's a good trade but a loss, then I'll probably still be thought of as a fool or loser. If it's a good trade and a winner, then that will be seen too. Nothing to hide really; who cares right? We are all what we are, and whether we tell people or not, people know the truth, so might as well be a case study in either what to do or what not to do so that others can learn from good or bad decisions.

[joshdance 10]

Steve, any thoughts on the Sunday globex open at 07.50? Since your 10.75 is significant as the Monday open, any significance for the Sunday open, given that this is a Friday and the time you are paying attention to the week's open?

[joshdance 10]

First HL made, on great volume, held twice. Would like to buy this and give it a try. Hope 08 is retested before it breaks 11, if it breaks 11 that is.

[MightyMouse 12]

Indeed -- the worst that can happen is that I take a loss, and look like a fool. If it's a stupid trade, then it's simply revealed that I traded like a fool, which is the reality. If it's a good trade but a loss, then I'll probably still be thought of as a fool or loser. If it's a good trade and a winner, then that will be seen too. Nothing to hide really; who cares right? We are all what we are, and whether we tell people or not, people know the truth, so might as well be a case study in either what to do or what not to do so that others can learn from good or bad decisions.

 

I did it in the past and it is very humbling and time consuming to remember to post and articulate your actions. Ultimately, you learn to just not care what others may think.

 

However, I did add the caveat of STFU if you are going to make after the fact critical comments on the thread.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So the 1307.00's remain in tact for the day. Just to point out that on top of being the price I pointed out in the all sessions MP since beginning of the year, it was also the overnight low and the 7.50's were the weekly ETH open as pointed out by Josh. However you view it, I think should it break, there could be a fairly quick move down. That's absolutely not suggesting I do or I don't think the price is going to break, but my idea of what may happen if it does.

[joshdance 10]

Based on what I'm seeing here, at least so far it does not seem that long term market participants are willing to take this higher. Maybe a late day rally will ensue, but this thing should have shot up like a rocket once 7s held twice, both times on substantial bids, and then broke 11s. Why do they hold 07s so fiercely, yet they won't pay up a few more points to take it up? I'm not sure, but the volume just isn't there yet to see the likes of 19s and 29s. They simply do not seem confident in the market enough to pay into it. That's the only explanation I can venture a guess at.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah it isn't great that it didn't I agree.But also they defended it. There's stuff on Greece supposedly to be sorted over weekend and if that happens then you know it will go higher. Plus, there'll be a load of people short who are stuck which will just add fuel to the fire.

[steve46 12]

Steve, any thoughts on the Sunday globex open at 07.50? Since your 10.75 is significant as the Monday open, any significance for the Sunday open, given that this is a Friday and the time you are paying attention to the week's open?

 

 

The WEEKLY open is used from Monday to Friday....once the week ends on Friday at the close of business, the weekly open is no longer in play....

[joshdance 10]

Yeah it isn't great that it didn't I agree.But also they defended it. There's stuff on Greece supposedly to be sorted over weekend and if that happens then you know it will go higher. Plus, there'll be a load of people short who are stuck which will just add fuel to the fire.

 

This is true, they did defend it. And quite heavily so I might add. I wonder if they could withstand another round of selling though.

[joshdance 10]

Hope everyone's weekend was great -- this week I've decided no forums for me, reading or posting. Just want to concentrate on the markets, and be in my little bubble. I'll check in on Friday after the close; good luck to all and hope it's a great week for you!

[steve46 12]

Here is the European Open...with most of Eurozone reacting to Sarkozy's decision to apply a transaction tax and Italy scheduled to sell bonds.....Portugal paying up to 15% for their money and most of the banks taking it on the chin as Greece continues to weigh on everyone....The other item that may interest traders is the Euro summitt....most institutions hoping for a solution but skeptical of the outcome....

 

The pre-market (overnight) ES market indicated that we would open down initially....what you will see however on my charts are examples of basing patterns and rerversal patterns, both of which indicates (to me) that the secondary or counter move will be up

 

Green arrows indicate entries

 

I will stay up another hour to see if we get continuation....if not I will get some sleep and try to get up for the US open at 6:30

[roztom 10]

The ES Targets I posted on Friday 1296.75 CHVN - 1298.75 CLVN with Major NVPOC @ 1297.00 are still open for today.. Monday.. There the market will have to make a major decision. IMHO. 1310.50 key on the upside. Otherwise potential for 1285.50 ish bottom of next bracket...NVPOC 1280.00

 

Good Trading All - Helmet on..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nearly there already! I'd imagine it'll test at the very least before close. Having said that, anything is possible right?

[roztom 10]

Nearly there already! I'd imagine it'll test at the very least before close. Having said that, anything is possible right?

 

:missy: That's why I wear a helmet... I find these areas as "attractors" for the market..These are locations of previous cumulative OTF activity... Just how I approach the market.

 

This past Friday the market hit my upside number CLVN 1317.50 on the close. High tick 1317.25. I got shook out of my long on the break just before it rallied up there... such is the game we play.

 

As you know we have discussed Time/Calender based Profiles and Market Swing based profiles which I use and I really think it is a matter of personal integration with how one experiences the market... and how they help the individuals meet their objectives..

 

It is always intersting to see the dynamics of the market unfold..unfortunately it has it's own schedule so I just try to get in sync with it..

 

BTW:Friday IBL: 1307.00 - 1308 area are key upside for today if Fridays range is tested..just my 2c...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

BTW:Friday IBL: 1307.00 - 1308 area are key upside for today if Fridays range is tested..just my 2c...

 

Yep I had that and 10.25 as worth a test if we move up.

[Sobo 10]

Hi,

I would like to join to discussion. Is anybody trading YM? What do you think about 12523 on the chart, possible long, if it breaks through?

[roztom 10]

Yep I had that and 10.25 as worth a test if we move up.

 

I have the same number...

 

BTW: As of 8:53 cst.. Initial Target 1297.00 NVPOC Closed... Covered Shorts from open...

 

Will watch development/volume for potential longs..."but" :rofl:

 

Must focus now..see you all later..

 

God Trading.

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, this is all a bit lame isn't it?

[roztom 10]

Well, this is all a bit lame isn't it?

 

I took long @ 1297.75.. At bit late bailed on it took only a point... Initial target was VWAP @ 1300.75 I had scale at 1300.25 and then hold...but am out now..looks like it will achieve first scale point... I will be waiting for rotation and see where it takes us..I believe LOD @ 1296.00 is in "for now."

 

Good Trading ..

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I took long @ 1297.75.. At bit late bailed on it took only a point... Initial target was VWAP @ 1300.75 I had scale at 1300.25 and then hold...but am out now..looks like it will achieve first scale point... I will be waiting for rotation and see where it takes us..I believe LOD @ 1296.00 is in "for now."

 

Good Trading ..

 

Tom

 

Possibly but I would have targeted the 01.50 myself just because it is the low of the last RTH balance. 1207.00 might be interesting along with 10.25 later if we remain in positive mood. Possibly low in too. One tick off Jan profile high vol price(which is fairly minor from this month's perspective).