Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

One note would be that the test in your chart didn't reject from the VPOC any time at all.

 

On 1/13 it bottomed at 72s, and then popped back up, and tested 75s before coming back up. This is the test I was referring to in the chart.

[TheNegotiator 13]

On 1/13 it bottomed at 72s, and then popped back up, and tested 75s before coming back up. This is the test I was referring to in the chart.

 

Well, if you don't like my MP...j/k lol!

 

Fair enough. Did both on that occasion then - maybe market is trying to satisfy both kinds of profiler?! Who knows.

[roztom 10]

Scaled @ 14.50...low of Yesterdays M Period & just ahead of 50% retracement...thought there's be some stops there which there were..

 

Still holding a light short position...thought there'd be a bit more push...protecting open trade...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Update: @ 1:18 cst cover all shorts 1313.75... as posted earlier.. Might add for scalping if there is decent rotation with proper structure... just my thinking right now..

Edited January 26, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Well, if you don't like my MP...j/k lol!

 

Fair enough. Did both on that occasion then - maybe market is trying to satisfy both kinds of profiler?! Who knows.

 

Well if it goes 3 or 4 points below a vpoc on a large scale like this and then bounces back with the conviction it did, I count that as a "test" even though it traded through it. What was important was that the balance formed was tested, so the "zone" was tested, and rejected. We have a very similar zone now for the last couple of weeks -- 1305 to 1311 or so, and 1308 is a nice midpoint and only a few hundred contracts from being vpoc of the year, so close enough.

[steve46 12]

Working the overnight market this evening and thought I would mention this trade

 

At 20:51 (8:51 PST) price tested 1310.75......the weekly open......and of course I took the trade

 

reversal to the tick....no idea if it will work out but thats the game we play here...filled at 1311 and we are at 1312.25 right now at 9:27pm PST

 

and of course the same questions apply as before, why would the weekly open be important on Thursday evening at 8:51pm?

 

Good luck folks

[joshdance 10]

Working the overnight market this evening and thought I would mention this trade

 

At 20:51 (8:51 PST) price tested 1310.75......the weekly open......and of course I took the trade

 

reversal to the tick....no idea if it will work out but thats the game we play here...filled at 1311 and we are at 1312.25 right now at 9:27pm PST

 

and of course the same questions apply as before, why would the weekly open be important on Thursday evening at 8:51pm?

 

Good luck folks

 

Don't know if you held this for 3 hours, but if so, you got a nice return, good job!

 

I was also keenly watching this level near the end of yesterday's selloff, but the action didn't really turn bullish till just after 3:30pm ET.

[joshdance 10]

I will still consider the scenario I wrote above, and will even look to buy around 1303-1305. I still think that longer term the trend is obviously up, but if we start breaking that area, and start making new weekly lows below 1301, then I will be looking for shorts.

 

The market was only able to muster 1319s overnight, and is banging on the door of yesterday's lows. On the 2.8% GDP number vs. expected 3.0%, it sold off pretty well, despite this being a relatively small discrepancy. It's like they are looking for reasons to sell, instead of buy. This to me is very important.

 

In other words, the market feels pretty weak, so I will look to short if it stays that way, BUT I will be aware of the 1303-1305 area as well and will consider a long there.

[roztom 10]

Josh: I was looking at your 1308.00 area and it happens to coincide with a NVPOC on my GLobex profile.. just point of interest.. I am watching 1297.00 area as NVPOC on RTH profile..with CLVN @ 1298.75 and CHVN @ 1296.75. This IMHO is a major area and a attractor for the market to test..

 

I thought I would mention that my composite profiles are based on Major Swing H/Low on the daily timeframe and then minor swings inside.. The Major composite CHVN/CLVN are where I look for areas of interest overlaying them with NVPOC's and the delevoping daily profiles...

 

Not to criticize anyones approach since whatever works for the indovidual is great, I found that imposing calender time on the market is external from the market.. I went to market swings as reference poiints as my time reference for calculating the composites.. just a point of interest not a counterpoint...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not to criticize anyones approach since whatever works for the indovidual is great, I found that imposing calender time on the market is external from the market.. I went to market swings as reference poiints as my time reference for calculating the composites.. just a point of interest not a counterpoint...

 

Tom, in general I would agree. However, if you are a fund trading opm, how do you report to them? Based on a balance area within the market or on a quarterly/yearly basis?

[joshdance 10]

Finally, officially have a vpoc shift for the year to 1308. Now I can rest easy! (j/k)

[joshdance 10]

Not to criticize anyones approach since whatever works for the indovidual is great, I found that imposing calender time on the market is external from the market.. I went to market swings as reference poiints as my time reference for calculating the composites.. just a point of interest not a counterpoint...

 

Tom I also think this is a reasonable approach, to build the profiles based on overlapping areas. But time is very important to the market. I've heard rationales over and over for how volume moves price, not time, and all of that. But the fact is that humans live in a world dictated by time, and the market opens and closes based on time as well. And just like anything whose bounds are defined by time (as the markets are), there will be times which are more important and have more activity to the market in general. I know you're not countering this, just a thought on time.

[roztom 10]

Tom, in general I would agree. However, if you are a fund trading opm, how do you report to them? Based on a balance area within the market or on a quarterly/yearly basis?

 

I actually do not look at it that way... I do understand the concept... I am focused on the volume and the "market" generated information... where the OTF was active vs the calender...again this is what my work has shown...For years I used calender based profiles and Value areas and time based NVPOC in the larger composites - I found my numbers seem to work better with market generatet volume based on where the market did it's business... I expect the market to return within to test these areas of OTF activity.. as the market criss-crosses an area and the Cumulative nodes are created.

 

Remember, this is not a counterpoint. Josh, you & I seem to use the Composite Profiles in a similar fashion..

 

I "suspect" even if you impose calander based timeframes that the volume will show up at the key nodes ... Interesting..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Finally, officially have a vpoc shift for the year to 1308. Now I can rest easy! (j/k)

 

Can you post a chart of what you're looking at please?

 

On the subject of time based profiles along with current lows, please refer back to post #1048.

 

Just got to see if the move back up is sustained now!

 

EDIT: Btw the expanded price scale shows the poc to be 1307.00 not 07.25.

[roztom 10]

Finally, officially have a vpoc shift for the year to 1308. Now I can rest easy! (j/k)

 

Josh: While you kick back & have a cocktail..since your 1308 was hit in Globex which was also a GLobex NVPOC as posted earlier, it will be interesting to see if RTH gets to my numbers down below as posted ..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

Can you post a chart of what you're looking at please?

 

Here you go .................

[steve46 12]

Don't know if you held this for 3 hours, but if so, you got a nice return, good job!

 

I was also keenly watching this level near the end of yesterday's selloff, but the action didn't really turn bullish till just after 3:30pm ET.

 

 

Ha....of course I held it....through 2 retests and into the evening....thats the job....and its history as the market hit a high and reacted to predictable GDP numbers....the overnight is a very easy trade....you have to fight boredom and sleep issues but the rest is very straightforward.

 

Now I'll finish by trading the open and then get some sleep..

 

See ya

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here you go .................

 

That's interesting. If you change the start date to 1/3/12, it happened on Tuesday. But I think 1/1/12 is probably the way forward!

[roztom 10]

Tom I also think this is a reasonable approach, to build the profiles based on overlapping areas. But time is very important to the market. I've heard rationales over and over for how volume moves price, not time, and all of that. But the fact is that humans live in a world dictated by time, and the market opens and closes based on time as well. And just like anything whose bounds are defined by time (as the markets are), there will be times which are more important and have more activity to the market in general. I know you're not countering this, just a thought on time.

 

I agree on the constraints of the calender but when I went from TPO (time) based profiles to Volume based PRofiling I considered that II didn't want it both ways - a conflict of data so since VOlume was market based and the market is swing based that was my rationale...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

That's interesting. If you change the start date to 1/3/12, it happened on Tuesday. But I think 1/1/12 is probably the way forward!

 

Well, the first trading day of the year was 1/3, Tuesday, was the big gap up from 12/30. So, starting the profile there.

[joshdance 10]

Pretty strong buying off the open gentlemen. Tried to buy but 4 straight points up with only a 1.5 point retrace.

[TheNegotiator 13]

14.50 is an interesting little price from just below yesterday's close.

[joshdance 10]

14.50 is an interesting little price from just below yesterday's close.

 

Could be, but it looks to me like typical 3:59-4:00 end of day volume just concentrated at that one price.

[TheNegotiator 13]

michigan out at 75.0

[joshdance 10]

Because I already had a long bias, I am itching to be long a little bit, but don't want to be impatient. I will look to buy 09.75 now, but so far buyers willing to pay higher so I don't know if I will get it.

 

I'm open to the possibility that this is just one of those opening 30 minute reaches in one direction, and then a slam back down. But so far, sellers have not really shown up much.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Because I already had a long bias, I am itching to be long a little bit, but don't want to be impatient. I will look to buy 09.75 now, but so far buyers willing to pay higher so I don't know if I will get it.

 

I'm open to the possibility that this is just one of those opening 30 minute reaches in one direction, and then a slam back down. But so far, sellers have not really shown up much.

 

The open type was otd of the 7.00's. I would guess we could have a little further upward probing to go(imo).