Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

I have seen enough people who are consistently profitable who don't "know why" to make me believe that knowing why isn't the holy grail that some make it out to be.

 

Knowing the kind of reference points which a market reacts to, identifying the auction structure and watching how the market behaves at said reference points is the important thing for me.

 

Knowing is useful, doing is better.

 

Agree N -- I know that we can never know why the market really does anything, because there are an infinite number of possibilities and directions it may take. I just want to be sure that I'm not taking a "buy at XYZ line" approach. I realize that's not what anyone is saying to do, and that it's simply a potential area to watch . So, I will watch, and act accordingly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yep. Being able to weight different areas appropriately is of course going to be likely to increase your odds of trading successfully.

[TheNegotiator 13]

look where the VAL using 2SD of the profile comes in...

 

 

and inc today the VPOC has now flipped to the other bulge at 1308.00.

[steve46 12]

Done for the AM session.....the move from 1303.50 seems to have topped out just shy of

1310

 

and that coincides with the beginning of lunch hour in NY

 

Couple of observations...first, once certainly can know "why" things happen....however from a professional standpoint what matters more are the statistics....does the event display predictability.....what is the risk....and then the details....what is the average favorable excursion after a test of the "xyz line".....does it happen every day....every other day....only at the open

 

For me, once I obtain a minimum number of data points, if the stats are right I am going to hit it until things change....one thing that I know works is an aggressive approach.....once you have the numbers in your favor, take the trade until they make you pay....if you have done your homework...and interpreted the numbers correctly....you will have made enough money on the trades to justify the risk...

 

Now I need to get some sleep

.

[joshdance 10]

One scenario.........

[TheNegotiator 13]

What can I say. Don't fade the Fed? We broke higher yesterday out of pre-FOMC balance and if there's any retracement, there are some nicely defined areas to look at trading. However, we are looking like we will gap up on open both from RTH close and RTH high. There's less in my longer term profile up here although still some good points of interest. will have to change the start date if it takes 1350.25 out at any point(although the usefulness of such old data might be questionable). Anyway here's a plain old chart with zero annotations.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looks like we're getting a little responsive selling here after failing the overnight high. Would point out however, delta is not plummeting yet either considering where we are.

[TheNegotiator 13]

6k@ 20.00s and 4k@20.25s - someone has got to be taking the piss. Let's see

 

Anyone have any thoughts on what we've seen so far anyway?

[TheNegotiator 13]

I don't know about anyone else, but this attempt higher is not exactly filling me with confidence right now(not saying it won't push higher btw).

[joshdance 10]

Ditto, but would not feel comfortable shorting this right now either. Buyers clearly interested.

[TheNegotiator 13]

When(if) we get there, the VWAP is going to be in close vicinity of the IB Low which is also low vol for the day. I'd be interested to see what happens. Reject and I would hazard a guess at new LOD, no reaction to clear break I would think would be more conducive to balancing.

[TheNegotiator 13]

However, there is also that small build just above the IBL and then yesterday's high 24.75 showed some importance earlier.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Dunno about anyone else but I feel like I don't want to get stuck in the middle(of the day). Will come back later and see what the score is.

[roztom 10]

I did not post this earlier so feel free to disreagrd it...

 

I had a NVPOC 1329.50. The only thing relevant here is that it is a MP area or target..

 

And NO, I did not get short up there..

 

Regards

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I did not post this earlier so feel free to disreagrd it...

 

I had a NVPOC 1329.50. The only thing relevant here is that it is a MP area or target..

 

And NO, I did not get short up there..

 

Regards

 

Tom

 

Was looking at that too given gap close at 29.25 as well. Didn't take it as it was pushing there into 10am figs.

[roztom 10]

Was looking at that too given gap close at 29.25 as well. Didn't take it as it was pushing there into 10am figs.

 

:crap: Same thinking here with the reports coming...Nothing like having the numbers but, at least for me I had conflict in my tools.. + reports. SO like many other times, until the market shows it's hand I must wait...

 

I did get on the short side and squeezed a few out of it and am still still lightly short looking for a test of the 1313 - 1314 area... and depending on how we rotate over lunch I may add postions back...

 

BTW: @ 11:54 cst ////dvpoc 1319.50 & CHVN @ 1319.75 are areas of interest but it is still early for the rotation...watching it..just fyi..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I tend to find that when the market is moving like it is now, areas which should hold are taken out and move further until weak players relent. That's my feeling anyway whether it's orchestrated or not is an entirely different question.

[roztom 10]

I tend to find that when the market is moving like it is now, areas which should hold are taken out and move further until weak players relent. That's my feeling anyway whether it's orchestrated or not is an entirely different question.

 

Agree: That is why 19.50 - 19.75 is an area of interest... as of 12:12cst it has held the rotation BUT, IBL @ 1322.25 & single @ 22.00 are also in the mix...

 

Watching those 2 areas to add...as of now.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think there's a decent chance we'll want to test yesterday's high again. Break and hold and we're off again, fail or fail to hold above and it could be a test of 1308ish- take a look at a 4day MP/VP thurs-tues.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Double dist delineation from yesterday is 13-14.

[joshdance 10]

I think there's a decent chance we'll want to test yesterday's high again. Break and hold and we're off again, fail or fail to hold above and it could be a test of 1308ish- take a look at a 4day MP/VP thurs-tues.

 

Did you see my post yesterday, #1030, regarding 1308? That's what the chart was regarding. I was actually technically wrong, I forgot to include first few bars of year globex, so technically no vpoc shift for year to 1308, but same idea.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah I did. It certainly makes sense to me. I think looking at more developed balance areas like this for reaction is the path I'd tend to follow in this sort of market(less confidence/conviction). One note would be that the test in your chart didn't reject from the VPOC any time at all. Maybe it would be worth while looking at an MP version in these circumstances to see if there are any differences.

[TheNegotiator 13]

This is what I have for Q1 2012 so far:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

72.50 and 86.75 for the MP is where it pulled back to.

[roztom 10]

Double dist delineation from yesterday is 13-14.

 

Yes : That si my target area..also I added at the area I previously posted... 19.50 - 75 ish...

 

Josh: Agree with your assessment however I have a bit lower than you...1297.00 - 98.75 ish

 

Regards,

 

Tom