Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[gosu 10]

Look at the absolute BS the market plays. 8 point range the entire day. Goes down 4.5 points after the cash close. Then back up 5 points. All within 15 minutes. I know it's not healthy to think, but it's frustrating when I want to absolutely strangle the big money traders who are manipulating and playing games with this market.

 

Google earnings miss.

 

Keep a cool head and chalk it up to a lesson. Always know the releases ahead of time.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nice trade gosu. Agreed on Josh. Relax. It sucks, but at least you didn't. It's about the sum of all parts, not one trade or one day. Here's something to take your mind off things. Can you tell me what percentage of days in the past 2 years have had a VPOC with volume of over 150k?

[roztom 10]

close short 2421...on gift.

 

was looking to hold for a day on the retrace but i always take extraordinary profits when they arise.

 

Nice work... I do not watch the NQ\I traded it back in 2000 - 2001 timeframe..it was the place to be... now just ES...

 

Josh: I know how you feel... I had another long in there right after the cash close and got stopped out.. scratched..Dem Bums:doh:

 

Always another bus coming by... though...You had decent trade location and good risk management...that's the only thing we can control..

 

Regards Tom

[joshdance 10]

Nice trade gosu. Agreed on Josh. Relax. It sucks, but at least you didn't. It's about the sum of all parts, not one trade or one day. Here's something to take your mind off things. Can you tell me what percentage of days in the past 2 years have had a VPOC with volume of over 150k?

 

Thanks gosu and N--

 

N, unfortunately I only have tick data for ES through early August but I can see that today was the largest volume for a single price at least for the last few months. Although when I took the trade I took, it was not quite so high, and built up quite a lot over the last few seconds of the session so it looks a little more dramatic than it actually was. However, it also caused a weekly vpoc shift for this week. In fact that was one reason I considered a long was due to value shifting higher.

 

Do you have tick data back 2 years??

[joshdance 10]

Google earnings miss.

 

Keep a cool head and chalk it up to a lesson. Always know the releases ahead of time.

 

Good advice -- do you have a resource you check for earnings schedules?

[mdubsnz 10]

Good advice -- do you have a resource you check for earnings schedules?

 

Josh here are a few free sites with earnings dates

 

US Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Yahoo! Finance

 

Free Stock Screener - screen for earnings via day/week/month etc *Note finviz can be rather inaccurate at times so best bet is yahoo.

 

Earnings Calendars - MarketWatch

 

Earnings Calendar - 2012 Economic Events Calendar - TheStreet

 

If you want to pay for something there is always briefing.com or theflyonethewall.com however Yahoo always did the trick for me.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Answer to my question was 3 times in nearly 2 years. This equates to around 0.5% of the time. Not the most fun days but there is now a very nice point of reference. Tight range at current extreme of a move should alert us to possible weakness ahead. Although don't think that's a forgone conclusion either. 10.25 is now a very useful price to watch imo.

 

[joshdance 10]

SPX traded 650M+ shares in an 8 point range yesterday, significant if you're into VSA / wyckoff.

[gosu 10]

Good advice -- do you have a resource you check for earnings schedules?

 

Hi joshdance, I use briefing.com for no particular reason and there are others that are referenced by a helpful person in the above post.

[joshdance 10]

Thanks mdubs and gosu, will check these out.

 

FYI I am long ES 05.75, stop below the low at 04.25, looking for a revisit of 10.25 from yesterday... heading out and leaving it for the afternoon.

[joshdance 10]

Thanks mdubs and gosu, will check these out.

 

FYI I am long ES 05.75, stop below the low at 04.25, looking for a revisit of 10.25 from yesterday... heading out and leaving it for the afternoon.

 

 

just logged in from my phone, and closed as it hit the IBH at 09.25 for a +3.50, nice way to go into the weekend

[roztom 10]

just logged in from my phone, and closed as it hit the IBH at 09.25 for a +3.50, nice way to go into the weekend

 

Nice Josh.. Today was quite a bit different for me... from yesterday.. Yesterday all winners..today chop except a long @ 1306.75 which I already exited for a small gain... These tight range days are difficult for me to trade... and I get chopped when there is not enough range..

 

When we failed @ the IBL I got long but it was very tenuous and I bailed out ahead of my targets HOD and VPOC since the shorts seemed very passive and we were heading into lunch...

 

That's it for me unless there is a rotation worth trading but this isn't a good market to trade at least for me..I need more range.

 

Best to all..have a great weekend..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

I took the microscope out and scalped around the DVA and got myself back to a small loss for the day after being in the hole...

 

I can't believe that there are those who say MP is a worthlesss tool. It certainly doesn't stand alone for me. Alone I would lose $ with it like when I first studied it in the early

1980's.

 

I assume when someone makes a statement like, MP is a worthless tool or a fad, it is only a reflection of differtent tools for different traders..

 

COnsider Gann or Elliott Wave eventhough I have studied and used them in the past.. If Gann or EW fits someones trading then that is great for them..doesn't work for me but I do know successful EW practitioners - once again within the context of a toolbox and different timeframes..

 

One of the toughest parts of being a succesful trader is the integration of the proper tool set that fits your psychology and resonates with your logic.

 

MP, IMHO is not a panacea. For me it was not easy to learn/interpret, does not stand alone and outside of the classical definitions - is a subjective tool. I have learned to integrate it into my trading toolbox and it is a major factor in my success...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[steve46 12]

Last two trades today...for me the problem is staying awake....as I am showing students how to trade the overnight market.

 

My solution is to isolate two trades in the AM and then two more in the PM session....the attached chart shows the PM session trades....the blue rectangles are put in place the previous Sunday morning....and represent supply and demand.

 

The upper arrow was what I consider a layup. Price took out the previous day's open then retested at a critical time (last hour).....the price pattern is what I call a temporary imbalance..

 

I can take the trade "as is" just off the pattern, however I prefer to have the confluence of the previous day's open as well. I am always reading the tape (just habit) but on low vol days I think you have to have more than that to get consistent results.

 

When I was in the business I used to go home early, but no more....I see now that the last hour is providing good odds if you have a solid premise to trade off of.

Edited January 20, 2012 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

Wish I had gotten back in this when it went back to 1306, this went on to hit my original target plus a little more!

[iwshares 10]

When I was in the business I used to go home early, but no more....I see now that the last hour is providing good odds if you have a solid premise to trade off of.

 

In testing my current daytrading system I was always intrigued with the profitable setups in the last hour of my set trading hours (5pm UK).

 

Just wondering how you manage the trade for exit e.g. profit targets, scaling out, trailing stops, DOM action? Apologies if you've already posted this.

 

 

Thanks

[roztom 10]

Wish I had gotten back in this when it went back to 1306, this went on to hit my original target plus a little more!

 

Josh: When individuals tell me that MP/VPOC, etc doesn't work and they come up with all kinds of technical reasons..I just roll my eyes... I see it work everyday...

 

I sometimes don't work everyday but MP does...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[steve46 12]

In testing my current daytrading system I was always intrigued with the profitable setups in the last hour of my set trading hours (5pm UK).

 

Just wondering how you manage the trade for exit e.g. profit targets, scaling out, trailing stops, DOM action? Apologies if you've already posted this.

 

 

Thanks

 

There are a number of ways to manage exits....you can use historical ATR for this time of day...

you can simply trail a stop (for retail traders the chandelier method by LeBeau seems to work pretty well)..My preferred method is to establish a position early in the day and leave a small remainder in play throughout the day...I also read the tape...

[gosu 10]

Good advice -- do you have a resource you check for earnings schedules?

 

Be prepared.

 

yada yada yada - 20 character minimum requirement is lame. Less is more.

[roztom 10]

There are a number of ways to manage exits....you can use historical ATR for this time of day...

you can simply trail a stop (for retail traders the chandelier method by LeBeau seems to work pretty well)..My preferred method is to establish a position early in the day and leave a small remainder in play throughout the day...I also read the tape...

 

Steve: Exits are the toughest part of this for me... I do trade with targets and most often achieve them.. However, ATR is too slow for daytrading (for me) and trailing a fixed amount doesn't work... Sometimes I get great trade location but the market rotates and I get out to protect some profit, give up trade location and the rotation might have been shallow and then I have to reposition & give up 1 - 1.5 ES pts to get back in..often I will not do that because I've given up my edge... depends... on the day structure.

 

I still am not satisfied with my exits and haven't found anything - yet, that doesn't leave too much on the table.. just to confirm, I do scale out along the way...

 

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[steve46 12]

Okay, well the subject is not simple....

 

I notice that some folks use price action in relation to a moving average as a signal to exit trades....using that method you would pick an MA (say 20 period moving average) and once you are in the trade you stay with it unless or until price "takes out" the moving average....Personally I don't care for that method because I know that is where some traders look to initiate entries. Just throwing out ideas here...

 

On the futures side, I know that institutional traders look to hit time based targets as points where they can either add to positions or (again depending on the time) exit and take profit. My time based pivots are simple to interpret and seem to work (once you understand how time affects price action)...institutions have a longer time frame approach so that may or may not help you. In my thread on institutional trading I remember posting several examples where price tested a weekly open and then reversed (to the tick) as an example.

 

Finally, if you look carefully at my posted charts, the first thing you notice are the blue "supply/demand nodes" (a lot of them)....I put them in on Sunday mornings....during the week, when price tests a node, I look to see if I have a number at that price (or nearby)....if I do (this is what I call confluence) and I am in a trade...I monitor the tape to see if we are going to take out the number (and reverse) or continue....I have been doing it for a long while now and for me it works pretty well. Can't go into the details but this is how I was trained....

 

For me this is all integrated into my experience of many years....if you are a "do it yourself" kind of person, it is going to take you some time to figure out what works best....

 

I wish you the best of luck trading.

 

Steve

Edited January 21, 2012 by steve46

[roztom 10]

Darn it Steve... I was hoping you had the special sauce

 

The stop thing is one of the most difficult for me.. I have actually 3 types of exits:

 

I trade in units of 3.

 

1. Fixed number of ticks based on a high probability - typically 1.25 pts ES... this is just to reduce my risk... apx 64% probability.

 

2. Short term target usually a node or spot where stops have accumulated on an interday basis... stop follow 50% behind or at some chart point...

 

3. Longterm target: This is the longball...on a interday basis.. Usually a naked VPOC or /node depending on the context...

 

Of course my issue is when it rotates and I watch my 2 and or 3rd lot come back on me...

 

A number of my trader buddies are all in all out.. they trade size and say why bother with shooting for targets...get momentum then get out of Dodge.. Of course some of these guys are Exchange members and pay nothing to trade like that...

 

Tx,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

Be prepared.

 

After looking at several earnings calendars online, I'm still trying to find one whose UI is clear. That being said, finviz allows me to screen by market cap and pick out the HAL and AAPLs and ignore the smaller stocks. But, then the earnings calendars all seem to lump these together and I lose the "important" ones. Any that let me see just what big stocks?

[gosu 10]

After looking at several earnings calendars online, I'm still trying to find one whose UI is clear. That being said, finviz allows me to screen by market cap and pick out the HAL and AAPLs and ignore the smaller stocks. But, then the earnings calendars all seem to lump these together and I lose the "important" ones. Any that let me see just what big stocks?

 

I'm not sure what you are asking. What is "UI"?

 

In any case, I trade stock index futures not stocks so there is no need to make it complicated. There are only a few names to keep watch for, mostly in technology. Financials are less important now because of their steep drop in prices. C has been dropped altogether from the DJIA; JPM and BAC are still left. Banks usually release premarket at the beginning of earnings season; techs usually release after the close, sometimes during the 15 minutes between the close of the cash market and futures market.

 

Why is Apple so important? It makes up a big part of the NDX (around 20%) and it's also a significant part of the SPX (around 2%). It's not in the INDU, but we know all of these indicies are related and therefore correlated. This should make a person think about what it is he is actually trading when he says he trades ES or NQ or YM. These are not isolated markets.

 

If I understand what you are asking, I do not screen for big stocks in the earnings calendar. During earnings season, I just scan (with my eyeballs) the upcoming week's calendar and the names pop out at me and I make note of it. I don't care what the estimates or actual numbers are, just the day and whether pre- or post-market. Takes me less than 5 minutes.

[joshdance 10]

I'm not sure what you are asking. What is "UI"?

 

In any case, I trade stock index futures not stocks so there is no need to make it complicated. There are only a few names to keep watch for, mostly in technology. Financials are less important now because of their steep drop in prices. C has been dropped altogether from the DJIA; JPM and BAC are still left. Banks usually release premarket at the beginning of earnings season; techs usually release after the close, sometimes during the 15 minutes between the close of the cash market and futures market.

 

Why is Apple so important? It makes up a big part of the NDX (around 20%) and it's also a significant part of the SPX (around 2%). It's not in the INDU, but we know all of these indicies are related and therefore correlated. This should make a person think about what it is he is actually trading when he says he trades ES or NQ or YM. These are not isolated markets.

 

If I understand what you are asking, I do not screen for big stocks in the earnings calendar. During earnings season, I just scan (with my eyeballs) the upcoming week's calendar and the names pop out at me and I make note of it. I don't care what the estimates or actual numbers are, just the day and whether pre- or post-market. Takes me less than 5 minutes.

 

"UI" => "user interface"

Perhaps I will simply pick the top 10 or 20 S&P stocks and scan for those at the start of the week. I'm not overly familiar with individual stocks as I also only trade index futures, namely ES.