Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Regardless of what has been happening over the past few hours in the European session, things aren't looking bright for a test of 1300 at least today. Yesterday we made a double bottom to the tick and failed to make new highs into close. We formed a "hanging man" type candlestick pattern if that kind of thing gets you excited. More important than names, it did show lack of buying conviction and this is concerning if you consider how close we were to a test of that psychological 1300 mark.

 

That said, anything can and does happen. We failed to push lower yesterday like I suggested, yet the information that it could still happen is carried into today.

 

I suspect we could end up being more volatile today and possibly directional. Watch out for news, remember Michigan is at 10am EST. Take care of your risk. Friday 13th today!!

 

[joshdance 10]

Thanks N, "hanging man" does get me excited! ;-) j/k

 

For disclosure's sake, I did close that trade yesterday for a -3.25 loss, not my finest hour but ready to make it a good week by trading smart today.

 

Today could be very pivotal; it could mark whether we establish value above the current R, and if we do so, I see no reason why we won't go to 1340ish. The cash closed above a prior R, and nothing in the way of it overhead. But the current action is not promising; but hey it's only premarket so it could just be one final washout before we blast to new highs. Must trade what we see right? Good trading to you today.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good trading to you too Josh! Nice honesty on the loss. You could be right on the upside. But it could also happen by dumping today and finding much stronger responsive buying much lower. So the day would still be quite negative potentially. Or we could just tank period! Who knows. What I am anticipating is a day with a bigger range than we've seen over the past few days.

[joshdance 10]

What I am anticipating is a day with a bigger range than we've seen over the past few days.

 

+1 and here's to hoping for that!

[TheNegotiator 13]

sorry michigan is now 9:55et

[TheNegotiator 13]

Michigan stronger at 74

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just be careful everyone. This market could go nuts at some point!!!

[joshdance 10]

Michigan stronger at 74

 

yet no followthrough, hence i'm short 82.25 stop BE

[joshdance 10]

yet no followthrough, hence i'm short 82.25 stop BE

 

Out at 80 for a 2.25 scalp, need to start today on a positive note

[TheNegotiator 13]

Pressure is really building up here imo!

[joshdance 10]

Pressure is really building up here imo!

 

Yeah something's gotta give at some point. I would guess 75.50 if new lows.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah something's gotta give at some point. I would guess 75.50 if new lows.

 

Yeah maybe. It needs to take out 78.75 soon though if we're to move lower without a rotation higher first.

 

**News on Greece**

[TheNegotiator 13]

There's your 75.50's on the money Josh! Let's see if there's any reaction or if that was just profit taking at a good level.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Does this movement remind anyone of anything?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Everyone having fun today?

[joshdance 10]

Does this movement remind anyone of anything?

 

Hmm, is "yesterday" the correct answer?

[TheNegotiator 13]

CORRECT! Lol. It really feels like squeeze one way, then squeeze the other. This pending rating stuff is screwing everything up too. Just way too far ahead tight now for people to commit. I am starting to feel like I'd be better off going away and coming back after mlk day. I may take a look back at around 2/2:30pm then make the call.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well that's it for the week. Hope everyone had a good day/week. Not great today imo but there you go. We got a bigger range in the end though!! Lol.

 

Have a good weekend.

[mdubsnz 10]

Definitely not the easiest of days. That 10:45 reversal with a push to new highs was nasty for anyone trying to stick with the Globex trend, my self included.

 

Tuesday will possibly be interesting in seeing they downgraded a few more countries than the rumors earlier in the day were citing.

 

Am I the only one who thinks today exhibited some decent strength on the back of the 'priced into the market downgrades'? Feels like we test 1300 again in the near future as opposed to a probe lower?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well time will have to tell on that. I think that in the end, we certainly can see the sell off as long liquidation. However, the manner of the rally back up has me think short squeeze into long weekend. To me, the price action on selling felt like the was buying into it. The kind of stuff going on at the moment though means that things can change very quickly. So we have to keep watching and seeing what the market does, with ideas to take advantage of different conditions as they occur.

[CYP 10]

Well time will have to tell on that. I think that in the end, we certainly can see the sell off as long liquidation. However, the manner of the rally back up has me think short squeeze into long weekend. To me, the price action on selling felt like the was buying into it. The kind of stuff going on at the moment though means that things can change very quickly. So we have to keep watching and seeing what the market does, with ideas to take advantage of different conditions as they occur.

 

Hi Negotiator,

 

What are your thoughts about a possible sell-off for next week? I know the late day rally looked good, but the charts are saying something different (imo). I see a possible changing of the guard upcoming.

 

I've attached a chart show my reasoning. I'm by no means an expert chart reader, but it seemed like the buyers were losing steam, going into the weekend. The news of the EU downgrades may be a factor, but it seemed like the market had already accounted for it. So what's the catalyst that would drive the chart lower? Possibly a Greek default on the way?

 

CYP

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi Negotiator,

 

What are your thoughts about a possible sell-off for next week? I know the late day rally looked good, but the charts are saying something different (imo). I see a possible changing of the guard upcoming.

 

I've attached a chart show my reasoning. I'm by no means an expert chart reader, but it seemed like the buyers were losing steam, going into the weekend. The news of the EU downgrades may be a factor, but it seemed like the market had already accounted for it. So what's the catalyst that would drive the chart lower? Possibly a Greek default on the way?

 

CYP

 

CYP,

 

A chart might show weakening but doesn't say why it's weakening. It could be purely that people are waiting to play their hand for example. Weakening charts may suggest some sort of turn, but not always immediately.

 

Balance of first week of the year was tested and resoundingly rejected. Given that it was set up for a sell-off and yet it recovered strongly by the end of the day, a sell-off without test higher might not be my favoured scenario and if that did happen, I would suggest a possibility of a retest at some point. Although it didn't take out 1292.75 Thursday high, it closed virtually on its high and closed above the 3 day balance VPOC right at the VA high. So we don't have a proper indication of sellers' responsiveness yet if any and from where that may come in.

 

All said and done, anything can and often does happen. Having alternative views and being flexible in your thinking is in my mind the only way to deal with markets. Especially uncertain markets. Rightly or not, traders are clearly still jumpy to say the least over Europe. Olli Rehn's reaction over the downgrades however, looked to have touched a raw nerve. To me this shows how susceptable Europe is to a negative shift in market sentiment. If people get really scared again, borrowing costs will soar again and they'll be back to square one. The ECB's mandate has to change imo and probably its structure and make up too. But to say a Greek default is on the way? Well I don't know. I think that would be something the powers that be attempt to avoid at nearly all costs. The reprocussions could be extensive and deep.

 

I'm not an economist though. I trade intraday. The thread is about the E-minis. So back to the topic!! Lol. On balance, without any really new information, I'd have an upward bias.

 

Just remember though that all of this is opinion only and any trade you take in any product/market is at your own risk.

 

[joshdance 10]

Well said N -- purely from what I am seeing, there is no objective reason for me to have anything other than a long bias for this market, unless we were to trade below 1267, in which case we may finally get a complete gap fill down to 1250s. Otherwise the 71-77 balance area was firmly rejected (about as firm as you can get in this environment), retested the POC (75.50), and fully broke away towards the end of the day. In fact I bought 76.75 on Friday based on this very premise (but closed far too early as usual).

 

And overnight, strong base of support at 82, and knocking on 90s doors...

 

EDIT: I would add that last week's upper balance is a very nice relatively normal distribution with a 78-92 range. Anything out of that range would be unfair, and no surprise that we are trading in the middle of that range from 81 to 88. Without some volume it's hard for me to see it going much out of that range but as N said, anything can and often does happen!

Edited January 16, 2012 by joshdance

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just remember all of this needs to be carried forward into tomorrow given it's MLK day!

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2012-martin-luther-king.pdf

[TheNegotiator 13]

Really not too much to add over and above my last post(last but one). Market has done(or stolen ) the move to 1300 overnight. See what happens on the retest of 1300(and the on high 1302.50).

 

Good luck.