Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Regardless of what has been happening over the past few hours in the European session, things aren't looking bright for a test of 1300 at least today. Yesterday we made a double bottom to the tick and failed to make new highs into close. We formed a "hanging man" type candlestick pattern if that kind of thing gets you excited. More important than names, it did show lack of buying conviction and this is concerning if you consider how close we were to a test of that psychological 1300 mark.

 

That said, anything can and does happen. We failed to push lower yesterday like I suggested, yet the information that it could still happen is carried into today.

 

I suspect we could end up being more volatile today and possibly directional. Watch out for news, remember Michigan is at 10am EST. Take care of your risk. Friday 13th today!!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27061&stc=1&d=1326463970

2012-01-13.thumb.jpg.468f78ad2d915e267d6a4cf9bc5cfaf4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks N, "hanging man" does get me excited! ;-) j/k

 

For disclosure's sake, I did close that trade yesterday for a -3.25 loss, not my finest hour but ready to make it a good week by trading smart today.

 

Today could be very pivotal; it could mark whether we establish value above the current R, and if we do so, I see no reason why we won't go to 1340ish. The cash closed above a prior R, and nothing in the way of it overhead. But the current action is not promising; but hey it's only premarket so it could just be one final washout before we blast to new highs. Must trade what we see right? Good trading to you today.

spcash.png.6ef364becd10f3f80de83f6c41c4dcfc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good trading to you too Josh! Nice honesty on the loss. You could be right on the upside. But it could also happen by dumping today and finding much stronger responsive buying much lower. So the day would still be quite negative potentially. Or we could just tank period! Who knows. What I am anticipating is a day with a bigger range than we've seen over the past few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CORRECT! Lol. It really feels like squeeze one way, then squeeze the other. This pending rating stuff is screwing everything up too. Just way too far ahead tight now for people to commit. I am starting to feel like I'd be better off going away and coming back after mlk day. I may take a look back at around 2/2:30pm then make the call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely not the easiest of days. That 10:45 reversal with a push to new highs was nasty for anyone trying to stick with the Globex trend, my self included.

 

Tuesday will possibly be interesting in seeing they downgraded a few more countries than the rumors earlier in the day were citing.

 

Am I the only one who thinks today exhibited some decent strength on the back of the 'priced into the market downgrades'? Feels like we test 1300 again in the near future as opposed to a probe lower?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well time will have to tell on that. I think that in the end, we certainly can see the sell off as long liquidation. However, the manner of the rally back up has me think short squeeze into long weekend. To me, the price action on selling felt like the was buying into it. The kind of stuff going on at the moment though means that things can change very quickly. So we have to keep watching and seeing what the market does, with ideas to take advantage of different conditions as they occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well time will have to tell on that. I think that in the end, we certainly can see the sell off as long liquidation. However, the manner of the rally back up has me think short squeeze into long weekend. To me, the price action on selling felt like the was buying into it. The kind of stuff going on at the moment though means that things can change very quickly. So we have to keep watching and seeing what the market does, with ideas to take advantage of different conditions as they occur.

 

Hi Negotiator,

 

What are your thoughts about a possible sell-off for next week? I know the late day rally looked good, but the charts are saying something different (imo). I see a possible changing of the guard upcoming.

 

I've attached a chart show my reasoning. I'm by no means an expert chart reader, but it seemed like the buyers were losing steam, going into the weekend. The news of the EU downgrades may be a factor, but it seemed like the market had already accounted for it. So what's the catalyst that would drive the chart lower? Possibly a Greek default on the way?

 

CYP

ES_1M_13JAN2012.png.03b28a7513ae9db9528e5971ff6aa492.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Negotiator,

 

What are your thoughts about a possible sell-off for next week? I know the late day rally looked good, but the charts are saying something different (imo). I see a possible changing of the guard upcoming.

 

I've attached a chart show my reasoning. I'm by no means an expert chart reader, but it seemed like the buyers were losing steam, going into the weekend. The news of the EU downgrades may be a factor, but it seemed like the market had already accounted for it. So what's the catalyst that would drive the chart lower? Possibly a Greek default on the way?

 

CYP

 

CYP,

 

A chart might show weakening but doesn't say why it's weakening. It could be purely that people are waiting to play their hand for example. Weakening charts may suggest some sort of turn, but not always immediately.

 

Balance of first week of the year was tested and resoundingly rejected. Given that it was set up for a sell-off and yet it recovered strongly by the end of the day, a sell-off without test higher might not be my favoured scenario and if that did happen, I would suggest a possibility of a retest at some point. Although it didn't take out 1292.75 Thursday high, it closed virtually on its high and closed above the 3 day balance VPOC right at the VA high. So we don't have a proper indication of sellers' responsiveness yet if any and from where that may come in.

 

All said and done, anything can and often does happen. Having alternative views and being flexible in your thinking is in my mind the only way to deal with markets. Especially uncertain markets. Rightly or not, traders are clearly still jumpy to say the least over Europe. Olli Rehn's reaction over the downgrades however, looked to have touched a raw nerve. To me this shows how susceptable Europe is to a negative shift in market sentiment. If people get really scared again, borrowing costs will soar again and they'll be back to square one. The ECB's mandate has to change imo and probably its structure and make up too. But to say a Greek default is on the way? Well I don't know. I think that would be something the powers that be attempt to avoid at nearly all costs. The reprocussions could be extensive and deep.

 

I'm not an economist though. I trade intraday. The thread is about the E-minis. So back to the topic!! Lol. On balance, without any really new information, I'd have an upward bias.

 

Just remember though that all of this is opinion only and any trade you take in any product/market is at your own risk.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27080&stc=1&d=1326720707

2012-01-16.jpg.e72383cdcbb68b071152f3a44f928a33.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well said N -- purely from what I am seeing, there is no objective reason for me to have anything other than a long bias for this market, unless we were to trade below 1267, in which case we may finally get a complete gap fill down to 1250s. Otherwise the 71-77 balance area was firmly rejected (about as firm as you can get in this environment), retested the POC (75.50), and fully broke away towards the end of the day. In fact I bought 76.75 on Friday based on this very premise (but closed far too early as usual).

 

And overnight, strong base of support at 82, and knocking on 90s doors...

 

EDIT: I would add that last week's upper balance is a very nice relatively normal distribution with a 78-92 range. Anything out of that range would be unfair, and no surprise that we are trading in the middle of that range from 81 to 88. Without some volume it's hard for me to see it going much out of that range but as N said, anything can and often does happen!

Edited by joshdance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.