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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Bear in mind that it's going to be lunchtime soon and my guess is that some traders will either do something else or go home early given how slow the trading is currently. Doesn't mean that there won't be chances later on though when they've left ;)

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Yeah it could pull back with people squaring up before they go to lunch/go home and still trade higher. Watch activity. Watch Volume POC and IB low. I think the low is still quite poor though. 7.50 points even with this movement is low for the day so I'd certainly expect either a break of the high or low. This time yesterday, range was 6.75 and finished 9.50.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

From the big gap up from last week to this week, the market has now tested last week's high, and found little interest in selling into that range. Do you think that may indicate a longer term conviction to the upside (by "longer term" I mean the next week or two)? This is obvious stuff I know, but I'm trying to be a bit methodical about this. Obviously we would need to trade up into yesterday's range first to really get serious about that. And if we don't right now, perhaps a further test of 63/64 will be needed.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Possibly. I did mention targetting 1300 in my first post today, but also I'd caution thinking about that yet. It could do 1262.75-1272.75 today 1269.50-1259.50 tomorrow then anyone's guess for Friday. I think for the us to get excited about 1300's, we need to get into yeterday's range, build, test 83.50(prior major swing high) then show strength above. So there's still a fair bit to be done and with NFP due so soon people won't want to commit(that is unless someone gets the nod beforehand).

 

Edit:1277 is a nice short term res level too from yesterday which would need to be taken out first.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
69.50? Why not 70.25?

 

69.50 is low volume on the long term profile. That's the real level even if the low yesterday didn't quite get there. Not all levels are hit to the tick every single time I'm afraid! Depends on competition for the area and how much traders are willing to give up to get a fill. 70.25 high was just checking that low.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

IB high keeps holding, if it breaks down, and peeks back up close to 71, I will look to short this if I see what I want to see in the volume. Only 7 tick range extension up; not convincing and as you said, good potential for a neutral day. If that's the case, perhaps a move back to at least the mid 60s will be in order.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
IB high keeps holding, if it breaks down, and peeks back up close to 71, I will look to short this if I see what I want to see in the volume. Only 7 tick range extension up; not convincing and as you said, good potential for a neutral day. If that's the case, perhaps a move back to at least the mid 60s will be in order.

 

Yeah quite possibly. Although don't force it either. Potential on these kind of days is for the market to catch a few people out before moving in direction originally traded for.

 

What is the impact of this information for you, or is this more of just a casual note?

 

Just that volume is pretty low. Supportive information clearly showing no conviction.

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sdoma    10

sdoma
Posted
Just that volume is pretty low. Supportive information clearly showing no conviction.

 

Low-volume days often exhibit steadily upwards, grinding action. Think about it, that happened all last year; steadily grinding bullish action on no volume. Machines have changed some of the rules.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Btw, apart from being 1 tick short off yesterday's close, did anyone notice anything else about the 1272's?

 

Actually 72 is yesterday's close (settlement) .. I did not notice anything else, what's up?

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Low-volume days often exhibit steadily upwards, grinding action. Think about it, that happened all last year; steadily grinding bullish action on no volume. Machines have changed some of the rules.

 

Yeah maybe. I don't think it's a universal truth though. Depends why it's low volume, who's already got what etc.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
127.2 IB on the flipside!

 

Quelle surprise!

 

I mentioned it several times in another forum does that count? :-)

 

Actually yes I did notice that N, 7 ticks above IBH, compared with 6 ticks below IBL. That was the premise for my short idea, which I am not in btw.

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sdoma    10

sdoma
Posted
Yeah maybe. I don't think it's a universal truth though. Depends why it's low volume, who's already got what etc.

 

I'm not saying anyone's trade will be wrong, just not to automatically assume that low volume means a lack of conviction. I don't look at it as conviction anymore, sharp moves are more driven by need and reaction than conviction.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
I'm not saying anyone's trade will be wrong, just not to automatically assume that low volume means a lack of conviction. I don't look at it as conviction anymore, sharp moves are more driven by need and reaction than conviction.

 

If we look at volume for what it objectively is, participation, I think it removes the need to assign motive (need, conviction, etc.). There may be little participation in a move up, but unless the other side actively participates more, it can continue to drift up or down, for example.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

The markets are more than just current price though. They are a sum of current holdings plus perception of value plus motivation to trade. I wouldn't say a market shouldn't move up on low volume, but somewhere down the line, it could perhaps more easily topple and retrace the move. Either way, today we are currently higher but still not at yesterday's highs. Might we get there? Maybe. But the chances are pretty decent that it could close back in the IB.

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