Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

  joshdance said:

I hate straight up or down days...

 

Yeah, they're not my fav. Just watch for move-balance-test-break-continuation(/reversal)-balance. Having already identified that this is likely 'one of those' type of day, just adapt you're strategy a little and maybe go in smaller or sim trade it if ur not confident. See how you fair.

[TheNegotiator 13]

  MightyMouse said:

I\Maybe if you would have asked Santa for a move up, you would be happy with the result.

 

Did you not MM?

 

....

[MightyMouse 12]

  TheNegotiator said:

Did you not MM?

 

....

 

TN. No. I am not in it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Ah right, nvm. 32.50 then 35.50 would be next from here to see if any sellers comes in. Just bear in mind that the 20-day(crude I know) average range is 18.25pts and decent days recently are around 30pts. So given the strong open it'd not be unreasonable to suggest, so long as we don't encounter any major sellers, that we may get to between 1235-1247 or so(1217+18/+30) and 1245 is the next good target for me to the up side. We'll have to see though given that this is a pre-hols mkt.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Slightly different look at the market today. A few things recently have made me think. I give you a profile based on time (IRT setting in prof pref) on a 180min chart and for the full globex session. Interesting reaction at 1249.00 a place that my volume based profiles haven't picked up with such high definition. See what you make of it.

 

[joshdance 10]

Something to keep an eye on perhaps.

[TheNegotiator 13]

What I have noticed is that more often than not, big levels do converge. But I do think it's worth watching for when they do and when they don't. The idea is to bring some signifance to the overnight action imo.

[steve46 12]

Vis a vis a post I read from you Negotiator I am putting in these two charts

 

I had time (barely) to do the trade and "snip" the charts...

 

You are right...it takes time and is (for me anyway) difficult to do anywhere near real time.

 

I will comment on them later

 

The first is the opening trade, a short off of a "reversal pattern"

 

The second is what I call the "clean up" meaning that I took partial profit at 2 points and left the

rest to run...and in this case it happened to go my way so I had the opportunity to take the rest

as it hit my target

Edited December 21, 2011 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nice. Look forward to seeing them later steve. 1224-26 area is important for me(even if 1220 was previously the resistance level holding us back).

Edited December 21, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[steve46 12]

Plenty of time now....

 

Apparently I am not a great multi-tasker

 

The first chart displays the open and a reversal pattern...I use this very short time frame because it gives me the granularity that I need to match the tape....(to me) that means that as the tape rolls by I can SEE price action that matches it...and (hopefully) make a good decsion

 

The second shows the clean up trade...simply put if the trade happens to go my way, I take the last profit for that sequence....a sequence is measured from the opening fill to the complete close of that trade..

 

Clearly this is a winning trade and all of them do not go so smoothly...scale outs at 2, 3 5 7 and 10

 

The trade is planned, because the pattern shows itself in front of the open....all I need to do is put my order in (limit one tick in front of the pattern top) and wait...I am willing to risk 2 pts....

Edited December 21, 2011 by steve46

[MightyMouse 12]

  TheNegotiator said:

Slightly different look at the market today. A few things recently have made me think. I give you a profile based on time (IRT setting in prof pref) on a 180min chart and for the full globex session. Interesting reaction at 1249.00 a place that my volume based profiles haven't picked up with such high definition. See what you make of it.

 

 

Looks awesome! I expect to see James and the Giant Peach float by

[TheNegotiator 13]

Haha! Maybe your mind should be on trading rather than fantastical children's stories!(j/k)

[steve46 12]

Today's final reversal trade occurred (initial signal) at 12:33, which is significant for my system

 

The pattern is an up spike at or near the supply boundary, followed by a series of (at least) 2 "tests" of that prior high....I like to enter on the 2nd test on a limit, or if I miss it I will chase for a couple of ticks.

[steve46 12]

This is the clean up for that trade...because this is a counter trend trade I don't want to let it go too long...

 

With the single caveat of Euro news, this market will likely continue to head north as institutions see the possibility of increased bonus dollars if they can push it up to or above 1263 by Friday

 

Many of the funds and most commercials have closed their books already so resistance if any will come from the headline news from overseas...

 

Green arrow is my exit on this sequence.

 

Edit

 

The Globex may be volatile this evening....this is the time when some participants may want to come in to "steal the trade"....that would mean a move of from 10 to perhaps 20 points perhaps on the possibility of good news on the Euro front..we will see..

Edited December 21, 2011 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

I won't be trading a whole lot today. However, if you do you should be careful. The low which pieced the 24-26 area yesterday did reject and although we didn't cloes on the high, the high was poor and it did close above the majority of the business which had taken place. This makes me think we are strong but perhaps might need to test before going up. Anyway, this is just one idea and we will have to listen to what the market tells us!

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

There you go, very nice open! Tested high of yesterday and then moved straight to 1245 area.

[steve46 12]

Very nice day, predictably upward bias because as mentioned institutions want to hit their numbers...

 

Here is the late day example (they are all pretty much the same on this time frame)

[joshdance 10]

Didn't do much else today, but took the 47 long at the end for a nice little trade. No sellers today to speak of..

[steve46 12]

Well then nicely done Josh...

 

As mentioned previously you can bet on an upward bias unless someone (Mr. Draghi for example) says something untoward...and then all bets are off...if however we have a mild news climate, there are lot of folks who would like to see this market move up to 1263+ within the next 24 hours.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Didn't quite get your 63+ overnight steve although we have pushed a little higher. Volume will likely be extremely light today. I won't likely trade much if at all. Not very forgiving as it is the sort of market that'll have 1 or 2 moves and then pretty much sit for the rest of the time.

 

Here's a chart anyway:-

 

 

Other than that, all that's left to do is wish you all a wonderful Christmas a profitable New Year!!

[steve46 12]

Yes I would have like to seen the European market respond a bit more positively... I think the pending vote (now successfully passed) for US payroll tax extension was weighing on market participants...because it required a full majority, if even one person had disented, the economic repercussions would have taken this news driven market down significantly...so once again people wait to see the result before committing capital...

 

Here off the open we saw a nice mini basing pattern.....one probe down and then up we go just prior to the report release...timing was about right so this was an easy one to take..the trader had the option to get out prior to the housing report, or stay in (if they felt it would be a decent report) and take the final pop up..for those interested the darker blue band represents a reversal area..Previous Value Area High provided nice confluence for the trade

 

I assume you guys take these right...after all market profile is your game.

Edited December 23, 2011 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

I was also looking to buy at the open steve, but I got in a little late, 51.75 ... I expected a gap fill and was looking to buy 49, but it only went to 49.75 ... the bottom rounded off but no further test down which I was expecting. But better late than never, at least if it works out... target is spx 66 or so, which would put ES around 61 to 62.

[steve46 12]

Not bad at all Josh....risk is an individual thing, but as long as you can manage the give up, you're good to go. From a seasonal point of view, the odds of continuation up are pretty good (just my opinion)

 

One thing I would point out, now that I am no longer a young man, I need to break up the day, otherwise I seem to be missing trade opportunities...So I trade the open and hope to get on board ONE (1) good entry....then I wait (and watch) for one more good trade (unless I am managing a trade that runs in my favor)....and I look for that second entry about one hour after the open....if I am lucky and get a second trade...I look to take profit at about the start of lunch hour in NY....I do this because I know that most of the players are gone (on a friday) in order to avoid traffic.

 

The attached chart shows the final am trade and again it is a simple reversal entry....and then I just wait...either they take it up, or I am out (right about now), and done for the day...

[joshdance 10]

  joshdance said:

I was also looking to buy at the open steve, but I got in a little late, 51.75 ... I expected a gap fill and was looking to buy 49, but it only went to 49.75 ... the bottom rounded off but no further test down which I was expecting. But better late than never, at least if it works out... target is spx 66 or so, which would put ES around 61 to 62.

 

Closed this at 56 for +4.25 ... need to do some shopping this afternoon and not wanting to sit through mid day slop. Happy weekend and holidays all!

[joshdance 10]

  steve46 said:

Not bad at all Josh....risk is an individual thing, but as long as you can manage the give up, you're good to go. From a seasonal point of view, the odds of continuation up are pretty good (just my opinion)

 

One thing I would point out, now that I am no longer a young man, I need to break up the day, otherwise I seem to be missing trade opportunities...So I trade the open and hope to get on board ONE (1) good entry....then I wait (and watch) for one more good trade (unless I am managing a trade that runs in my favor)....and I look for that second entry about one hour after the open....if I am lucky and get a second trade...I look to take profit at about the start of lunch hour in NY....I do this because I know that most of the players are gone (on a friday) in order to avoid traffic.

 

The attached chart shows the final am trade and again it is a simple reversal entry....and then I just wait...either they take it up, or I am out (right about now), and done for the day...

 

Thanks for the info steve, good luck in this, and have a good weekend. Negotiator and anyone else reading, happy holidays, see you next week (or next year if any of you are taking next week off).