Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Well it's QUADRUPLE WITCHING today, meaning possible increased volatility due to multiple options expiries coinciding. Yesterday didn't really do much in the end as there wasn't any appetite to move beyond 2 useful reference points. Those were and still are 1220 and 1198 areas. It's important to note that while the econ releases are over with pretty much, there are a whole host of speakers today. Probably a day to nip in and out of the market taking what you can here and there. There's also a chance that something could happen to motivate a big move, but we'll just have to see what happens.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26888&stc=1&d=1324045038

2011-12-16.thumb.jpg.60c0adf4a2dd26f6084832ab2bf46168.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A point I'd suggest you look at in your trade management Josh, is when you move your stop. For example(and I'll have to take another look at it later), when you sold 13.50 yesterday, it was against the move up. When you moved your stop, the move up hadn't for certain actually finished. So nothing having changed, is there any point in moving your stop? A point or two is simply the flow of a move and doesn't necessarily constitute a change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks buddy; I know that my management is poor many times. When I trade poorly, the thing that is common every time is that I am impulsive, I enter too quickly, and make the stops too large. So my "overmanagement" is probably overcompensating for what I do when I do poorly. When I do well, even when I have these kinds of stopouts, I usually manage to make money, due to the fact that I never dig much of a hole to begin with, and come from a better place psychologically for the rest of the day or week. So, I think this is why I mismanage--to reduce risk. While it's not logical, it psychologically beats the alternative (letting a trade go way in profit and then letting it come all the way for my stop, for example, as I've done before).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look where we opened again!

 

Josh I think what that is, is trading based on price activity. As a suggestion, if you trade in unplanned places based on activity, make it a scalp. That trade, you'd have taken a point or so and been happy with it even though it went further. When you have a plan(and by that I mean objective and non-emotional planning pre-open), give it room to breath.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a trade I just took. Wasn't absolutely confident given open test-drive(at this point anyway) but I thought it'd be useful to try at 1220.25 again. Shorted it on 2nd test(and 1 tick fail) with a point stop, but wanted to see a fairly quick reaction and trade thru 19.25. It just kinda sat there so I exited for a scratch. Would've been stopped already even though we've now turned around. Can't win them all, but if the reaction had been there we could have seen a fairly quick move to close the gap(and we may still do).:crap: Oh well though. I had my reasons for being cautious today and am happy I traded it in that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the chart N -- I also put in a bid at the low but this was after it went above 18 at which point it was too late. I tried a short scalp for -0.75, but just now took a short on the fake up to 23.25 / vpoc, and took a +1.50 scalp from it. I've had a very good week (yesterday only small losing day), and don't want to get witched today, so I'm being cautious. Interesting little battle right now... bids holding, but then offers holding. Not a place I want to have a position right now unless my trade is risk free in the money already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for the chart N -- I also put in a bid at the low but this was after it went above 18 at which point it was too late. I tried a short scalp for -0.75, but just now took a short on the fake up to 23.25 / vpoc, and took a +1.50 scalp from it. I've had a very good week (yesterday only small losing day), and don't want to get witched today, so I'm being cautious. Interesting little battle right now... bids holding, but then offers holding. Not a place I want to have a position right now unless my trade is risk free in the money already.

 

If you are happy with your week, you are already starting to go into non-trading mode. Don't let it suck you back in unless you see something you really like. Otherwise, reward yourself with an early finish. Well played mate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you are happy with your week, you are already starting to go into non-trading mode. Don't let it suck you back in unless you see something you really like. Otherwise, reward yourself with an early finish. Well played mate.

 

Part of the discipline I've tried REALLY hard to focus on this week is simply watching and sitting, and not forcing anything. I've taken probably 15-18 trades this week, and only 2 of them were utterly stupid entries. This means I've gotten better at waiting, and sometimes I overdo it and miss a move, but as I've heard it said, I'd rather be watching the market wishing I was in it, than in it and wishing I was flat! Part of the discipline I will continue for the rest of today is simply watching, waiting, and being patient. If I make it through the rest of today without taking a trade which I could label as "forced" or "impatient" or similar, then I will consider it a very successful week, regardless of profit or loss.

 

Additionally, I will feel much better going into Monday morning having witnessed how the story today unfolds. Not just looking at the chart after the fact, but sitting here as I do every day and letting the market tell me a story. When I miss part of the story, it makes it more difficult for me to get back in sync the next day or later in the day. I'm sure this will change as I get more used to trading and as I get more experience, but for now the more screen time the better, as long as I don't use that time for self-sabotage and stupidity. Though, I may very well go for a nice walk outside over lunch time :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a related note, someone the other day was talking about how he missed the big down day in crude oil this week because of other obligations, and how he had total peace about missing it, whereas in the past he would have almost rather lost money trying than to not be there for it.

 

When I first started trading I felt the same way--if I was not at the screen and it was a big day, I would be so upset. Then sitting there day after day when I started, I realized that being there when it moves is no guarantee that one will make money :) Seeing those big moves go by while having the ability to be in them, or worse, fading those big moves and losing money, made me realize that a good trader will make money (or not lose much) regardless of whether the market is moving or relatively sideways. I was not and still not there yet consistently, but it was quite eye opening.

 

On an ES note, nice little drop we're having here. Am I at peace for covering my 23 short at 21.50? Absolutely. Of course, I'd love to still be short, but that was the trade. Bull dominated up day, and buying came in strong at 21, so I'm out with my profit. Will be interesting to see what happens rest of today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope your evening was good -- despite missing the huge move due to an early exit, I am happy with my psychological state throughout the day, and all this week. I took 1 more trade today for +1.00, so made +1.75 today. I pretty much shut down with about 45 minutes to the close, and just watched a bit. Have a great weekend N and everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope you both have a nice weekend as well

 

Before closing shop for the weekend I wanted to post this chart

 

You may see a resemblance to one (or more) of my previous posts.

 

It is another afternoon range trade example

 

and as mentioned previously my strategy remains "hit it until they make you pay"

 

and as before we have the same "double taps" (entry on the second "tap" of the range extreme)

5aa710bc25f68_AnotherAfternoonRangeTradeExample.thumb.PNG.b6ed2911a28aa04b5d5ce89a993c0642.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning on what is start of the last trading week before Xmas! A couple of really important points to note from Friday. First off, we failed the extreme end of an underdeveloped area in the current balance profile at the high 1225. The area runs between 15.75 to 25.00 with a few ticks either side for comfort. The other point is that although we moved down, Friday's low was again higher and the bulk of its profile was also higher. Today, on the upside(if indeed this is the way we move) I'd like to see the top end of this underdeveloped area challenged and possibly breached and also a close above the low end. If you want to see how the Kim Jong-il news is or isn't affecting ES, take a look at it compared to for example DX,CL,ZN. Anyway, not much scheduled for release so let's see what happens!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26899&stc=1&d=1324302508

 

Good luck!!

2011-12-19_2.thumb.jpg.b450a42bb7deb5bf1032aa03c05fa349.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning

 

A predictable low volume day (we can expect more of this until the holiday is over)

 

and on a low volume day, we can also expect certain patterns to display among them the

"basing pattern"

 

This one exhibits the same characteristics as all of them....an initial move down to an area of support (this one on a wide range bar/candle) then a series of wicks creating a ledge, followed by a probe down to look for sellers.....when the probe down fails, you have a series of entry points (as shown by green arrows to the right of the probes down...good for a couple of points

 

At the top you have an aborted move up, stopped because Fitch decided to downgrade France

 

news trumps everything in this market, so you better be in the loop when you trade....I prefer Bloomie, but its up to the individual

 

Good luck in the afternoon

Steve

5aa710bc51459_Todaysbasingpattern.thumb.PNG.28615c020cb55cf2787e66a80814465c.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good morning

 

A predictable low volume day (we can expect more of this until the holiday is over)

 

and on a low volume day, we can also expect certain patterns to display among them the

"basing pattern"

 

This one exhibits the same characteristics as all of them....an initial move down to an area of support (this one on a wide range bar/candle) then a series of wicks creating a ledge, followed by a probe down to look for sellers.....when the probe down fails, you have a series of entry points (as shown by green arrows to the right of the probes down...good for a couple of points

 

At the top you have an aborted move up, stopped because Fitch decided to downgrade France

 

news trumps everything in this market, so you better be in the loop when you trade....I prefer Bloomie, but its up to the individual

 

Good luck in the afternoon

Steve

 

Absolutely have to expect low vol until after hols, but that doesn't mean markets can't move still. Like you said, the fact is news is the overriding factor right now and politicians, central bankers etc. aren't on holiday yet! The key is to realise that the recent mechanics of price action might not quite follow over this period. For example, last week it was also evident that the market would 'build a base' and accumulate trade over a range after a move. But then it would, on more than a couple of occasions, push through and extend.

 

I think this is an important point for anyone looking at a strategy and it is basically max drawdown. So when analyzing a strategy's negative results, it's important to see how concentrated the results are.

 

Anyway, lot's of info coming down from ECB right now and the market is(/has) reacting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Btw, for anyone who is interested, this is one sort situation I look at fibonacci retracements on as a backup other tools. The 38.2% of the range and/or move is often tested as a gauge of whether the move may continue or not. Both come in around the first retrace attempt area around 10/10.50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning everyone. Yesterday closed the range gap to 1197.25 and tested a little further before closing back above it. This may or may not turn out to be the rejection the market was looking for. The very clear downtrend(take a look at say a scrunched up 60min or so chart) can be broken today if we take (I would want) 1220 area and ideally close above. 1225 last rth swing high may also prove a good reference. Indeed we are hovering just below this area right near nyse open. Another break of 1197/98 area and I would think we'd be looking to close the gap to 1190 and possibly test 1185.50 and 1174.75. A noteworthy piece of info from yesterday was as pointed out already, this develop-break-develop-break behaviour we are seeing with very little rotation back up before pushing further. Virtually 3 separate days. Anyway, good luck and here's a chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26912&stc=1&d=1324391314

2011-12-20.thumb.jpg.b06d1003877a160a60cef1ed7ce435ba.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh yeah I forgot to use that fantastic keyword phrase "Santa Claus Rally"!(j/k btw)

 

If we do move a decent amount higher today, that's what they'll be talking about, of that I am almost certain! Pity they won't mention it's just retracing the previous downtrend!!! Lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Oh yeah I forgot to use that fantastic keyword phrase "Santa Claus Rally"!(j/k btw)

 

If we do move a decent amount higher today, that's what they'll be talking about, of that I am almost certain! Pity they won't mention it's just retracing the previous downtrend!!! Lol.

 

I\Maybe if you would have asked Santa for a move up, you would be happy with the result.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.