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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
True about the 56.50. As for the software, well each to their own I guess. Personally I don't find anything especially inconvenient about greenshot and will support its development by using it. I do think snagit is a rip-off (at least for what I would use it for). Would you buy a beer for $50 if there was no other pub open at the time or maybe it was just an unfamiliar place to you?

 

Beer for $50 -- probably not. But $25-50 is a "normal" price for software of this type. I wouldn't pay $50 for a beer, but if it was my favorite kind and I really wanted one, sure, I'd pay $15 (about twice as much as usual) :-)

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

Actually I had a buy limit initially at 43 for a blind buy, looking at the 43.50 high vol same reasoning as you ...

 

Looking to sell 56 now... it's the reaction point from before, and also happens to be the 50% of the entire up to down move. Should find enough confluence there to make it a good sell.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Actually I had a buy limit initially at 43 for a blind buy, looking at the 43.50 high vol same reasoning as you ...

 

Looking to sell 56 now... it's the reaction point from before, and also happens to be the 50% of the entire up to down move. Should find enough confluence there to make it a good sell.

 

Are you talking about the full globex session now?

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Yeah I thought so. Just one thing I'd note right now. The approach to the 56/56.50 is not clean. I'm not sure and would have to see when it gets there, but really when it's this close and trading like this I feel it could well shoot straight through. In which case I'll take a look at the 59's

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

Yes it concerns me slightly that sellers just pushed pretty hard here at 53 -- if they win, I'm not in it; if they lose, bulls have more stops they can run, and that might push it through 56. But 56.75 is multi-day POC, 50%, should at least put the brakes on.. we haven't had any really pullbacks of significance since the low. At some point they will have to at least feed the fire. My long term look is up--my premise was that as long as it held above 40s, that I'd be looking for longs. Yet, I'm not interested in getting long at this point or at 56, so a short to catch a 56 given the above reasons seems a reasonable trade.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Well that's something back right? When it approached 56/56.50 I knew it wouldn't hold I'm afraid. The action looked like it had cleared a bit but a lot of bids came in and delta did increase quite a bit. Opposing action didn't really have any chance of holding it and got steam rolled to the next level.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Well that's something back right? When it approached 56/56.50 I knew it wouldn't hold I'm afraid. The action looked like it had cleared a bit but a lot of bids came in and delta did increase quite a bit. Opposing action didn't really have any chance of holding it and got steam rolled to the next level.

 

Yes I'll take it -- down 0.75 then for the day so far. I'm afraid to say I knew it too... I've had to re-learn the lesson the hard way many times, that volume tells me where to go, and it didn't appear until 57... had I waited for that, even a predictive short at 57 would have survived with a 2 point stop.

 

I'm considering another short at 58, depending on how it looks. Perhaps 57.50 is the high of the retest and it will go down from here, but it does not appear it will break the high, IMO. But this time I will wait to see.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted (edited)

Shorted 58, stop 59, let's see if we can get 53 on this

 

EDIT: stop to 57.75 .. heavy bids and really should go from here... stop should be 59 but don't want to risk it.

Edited by joshdance

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Shorted 58, stop 59, let's see if we can get 53 on this

 

EDIT: stop to 57.75 .. heavy bids and really should go from here... stop should be 59 but don't want to risk it.

 

Buddy for your sake let me just point out that your stop is 1 tick above the high.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted (edited)

out at 56.25 for +1.75

 

I know I'm early and it will likely go to 53 or so, but boy the bids are just strong.

 

edit: got lucky -- 57.75 actually went offer when it traded 57.50, but no takers... after that I eased it up to 58 but definitely lucky I wasn't ticked out.

Edited by joshdance

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Morning everyone! It being roll, my continuation charts have back adjusted now so you'll see a difference in price.

 

What was interesting was that it didn't break lower than the 1238 area(1244 on dec 11). Then, although it was looking heavy, it did break higher to test the week high and pushed through a bit, but found sellers. Given all the news and the roll, I will probably be fairly cautious in my approach today. Some of the action was a little forced to me and so I'd like to watch what happens today.

 

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
These crazy moves are down to ECB President Draghi's Q&A answers in the ECB press conference.

 

Hmm Mario Draghi, sounds too similar to Bini Smaghi :rofl:

 

What is the gist of his comments, do you know? I am too fundamentally unsavvy to interpret anyway...

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Bini Smaghi was a guy who during the early part of Trichet's presidency would come out and say stuff in the media which wasn't especially sensitive to the market's insecurities should we say. He was(is until 2012 I believe) a member of the exec board of ecb which makes the rate decisions. He is also Italian.

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

The concerning comments were that ECB wouldn't circumvent EU treaty by lending to governments and going through IMF is a legal minefield. Also that decision to cut rates was not unanimous. Plus a whole heap of other crap the market will need to digest.

 

My view is don't try to trade off it, just recognise the volatility it may cause.

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